Seeking Zen: a Post-Pandemic 3PL Market Latest Third-Party Logistics Market Results and Predictions for 2021 Including Estimates for 190 Countries
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Seeking Zen: A Post-Pandemic 3PL Market Latest Third-Party Logistics Market Results and Predictions for 2021 Including Estimates for 190 Countries August 2021 Phone: +1-800-525-3915 Website: www.3PLogistics.com Email: [email protected] ABOUT ARMSTRONG & ASSOCIATES, INC. Armstrong & Associates, Inc. (A&A) was established in 1980 to meet the needs of a newly deregulated domestic transportation market. Since then, through its leading Third-Party Logistics (3PL) market research and history of helping companies outsource logistics functions, A&A has become an internationally recognized key resource for 3PL market information and consulting. A&A’s mission is to have leading proprietary supply chain knowledge and market research not available anywhere else. As proof of our continued work in supporting our mission, A&A’s 3PL market research is frequently cited in media articles, publications, and securities filings by publicly traded 3PLs. In addition, A&A’s email newsletter currently has over 88,000 subscribers globally. A&A’s market research complements its consulting activities by providing continually updated data for analysis. Based upon its unsurpassed knowledge of the 3PL market and the operations of leading 3PLs, A&A has provided strategic planning consulting services to over 30 3PLs, supported 24 closed investment transactions, and provided advice to numerous companies looking to benchmark existing 3PL operations or outsource logistics functions. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopied, recorded or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Armstrong & Associates, Inc. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Armstrong & Associates delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, Armstrong & Associates can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. ©2021 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. U.S. 3PL MARKET COVID, Volatility and the Reopening The volatile 2020 U.S. COVID-driven Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Market created growth opportunities for Third-Party Logistics Providers (3PLs) with strong carrier management, e-commerce, and air freight forwarding capabilities, while other 3PLs did not fare as well. After having a lackluster 2019 when we saw a year-over-year decline in transportation activity as import tariffs took hold, we awoke to a pandemic nightmare in March of 2020 with vast economic shutdowns. In May things began bouncing back as shutdowns were dialed back and the V-shaped recovery took hold. Even with its local and regional economic “spits and spurts”, inventories needed to be replenished, and PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) drove strong air freight demand. There was no time like the present for logistics expertise, and 3PL prevailed as an essential industry. Overall, strong domestic and international transportation demand has continued into 2021 further driving up domestic and international transportation rates. With inventories increasing and COVID case counts waning, demand for 3PL services seems to be becoming more stable and manageable. As we get closer to herd immunity in the COVID battle, and barring any shut downs from variants, we should continue to see increasingly strong demand as more consumers continue to leave quarantine and boost spending. 2021 might be the true start of our generations’ roaring 20’s. Armstrong & Associates’ (A&A’s) current estimates show U.S. 3PL Market gross revenues grew 8.8%, bringing the total U.S. 3PL Market to $231.5 billion. Most of the growth came from international and domestic transportation management which responded to COVID-related demands for PPE and to restock inventories upon economic reopenings. Overall, 2020 was a better year for 3PLs than 2019, which registered the Market’s first decline since 2009, but segment growth was uneven. Figure 1. U.S. 3PL Market 2010 - 2021E (US$ Billions) ©2021 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 3 U.S. 3PL MARKET Total 3PL segment net revenues (gross revenues less purchased transportation) grew 2.1% to $93.5 billion reflecting gross margin compression due to a volatile carrier sourcing market and transportation management 3PLs spending more to secure hard-to-find carrier capacity. The overall gross margin for all segments declined from 44% to 41%. Table 1. U.S. 3PL Market Growth by Segment Gross Revenue 2020 vs. 2019 1995-2020 Net Revenue 3PL Segment (Turnover) Net Revenue Net Revenue (US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) YOY % CAGR DTM 91.2 13.2 -1.8% 10.5% ITM 70.0 24.6 11.4% 10.8% DCC 20.0 20.0 0.3% 7.3% VAWD 46.7 35.7 -1.1% 10.2% Total* 227.9 93.5 2.1% 9.6% *Total 2020 gross revenue (turnover) for the 3PL market in the U.S. is estimated at $231.5 billion. $3.6 billion is included for the contract logistics software segment. International Transportation Management (ITM) Leading all 3PL segments for revenue growth in 2020 was International Transportation Management (ITM) which consists of air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, and complementary value- added services. Air freight revenues swelled in 2020 with the pandemic and extraordinary demand for PPE. With commercial passenger aircraft making up approximately 40% of total air cargo capacity, the pandemic upended air freight forwarding, and rates surged albeit on lower overall volumes. While air freight volumes are now above pre-pandemic levels, even with ongoing additions to increase air carrier capacity, it is still under pre-pandemic levels. With the economic reopenings in May of 2020, ocean freight demand came on strong as shippers worked on replenishing inventories. The ongoing results have been port congestion, tight container drayage capacity, and increased rates. “Blank Sailings” where a scheduled ship is cancelled from a route, and stronger ocean carrier alliances, have also reduced ocean capacity and buoyed rates. Overall, ITM realized a 19.2% gross revenue gain in 2020 expanding to $70 billion. While having a lower growth rate than overall gross revenue, due to a tight carrier capacity market, net revenue increased a healthy 11.4% to $24.6 billion. As of July 2021, the good news is that overall capacity is trending up in most ocean and air markets, as we dig out of the critical situation earlier this year, and port conditions in the U.S. are improving. For North Asia to the U.S., ocean capacity is still very tight and spot rates are continuing to rise. The air freight situation is improving, and spot-rate pressure is declining. The South Asian market is still very strained as COVID has gripped the area. Ocean capacity is declining, and spot rates are on the rise. Shippers are having to book 2-4 weeks in advance to get capacity. Air ©2021 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 4 U.S. 3PL MARKET freight capacity is starting to improve, and spot rates are moderating. Europe to U.S. ocean capacity is improving, but equipment shortages in Europe are affecting port operations. This is forcing some shippers to utilize air freight. Air freight capacity is improving and should improve as more passenger aircraft come online. The main challenge now is flight cancellations. We expect an improving but tight carrier capacity situation going into 2022 which will keep an upward pressure on rates. Air capacity will continue to grow with increased passenger belly capacity availability. A&A’s Top 25 Global Freight Forwarders list for 2020 is provided below. This list is compiled using a combined overall average ranking which is based on each provider’s individual rankings for gross logistics revenue, ocean freight 20-foot equivalent units/containers (TEUs), and air freight metric tons handled in 2020. Averages for this year’s Top 25 Global Freight Forwarders show that although year- over-year gross logistics revenue growth was up 8.2%, ocean and air freight volumes both fell 3.2% over 2019. Table 2. Top 25 Global Freight Forwarders* Gross Revenue Air Metric Rank Provider Headquarters Ocean TEUs (US$ M) Tons 1 DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding Germany 28,453 2,862,000 1,667,000 1 Kuehne + Nagel Switzerland 25,787 4,529,000 1,433,000 2 DB Schenker Germany 20,761 2,052,000 1,094,000 2 DSV Panalpina Denmark 18,269 2,204,902 1,272,405 3 Sinotrans China 12,174 3,750,000 532,300 4 Expeditors United States 10,116 1,091,380 926,730 5 Nippon Express Japan 19,347 660,152 720,115 6 CEVA Logistics France 7,416 **1,081,100 363,300 7 C.H. Robinson United States 15,490 1,200,000 225,000 7 UPS Supply Chain Solutions United States 11,048 620,000 988,880 8 Kerry Logistics Hong Kong 6,867 1,019,924 493,903 9 GEODIS France 9,135 866,631 290,506 10 Bolloré Logistics France 5,265 761,000 574,000 11 Hellmann Worldwide Logistics Germany 2,740 905,100 552,640 12 Kintetsu World Express Japan 5,750 640,063 556,875 13 Agility Kuwait 4,018 771,000 372,000 14 Yusen Logistics Japan 4,248 764,000 337,000 15 CTS International Logistics China 2,160 1,021,007 398,175 16 DACHSER Germany 6,591 **492,440 310,860 17 Toll Group Australia 7,260 523,300 117,400 18 Hitachi Transport System Japan 6,346 462,000 221,000 19 Maersk Logistics Netherlands 6,963 401,369 138,086 20 Apex Logistics International Hong Kong 2,274 190,000 750,000 21 Logwin Luxembourg 1,292 698,000 167,000 22 Mainfreight New Zealand 2,467 347,638 114,736 *Revenues and volumes are company reported or Armstrong & Associates, Inc.