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Robots Underpinning Future NATO Operations (Robots Étayant Les Futures Opérations De L’OTAN)

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Robots Underpinning Future NATO Operations (Robots Étayant Les Futures Opérations De L’OTAN) NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION ORGANIZATION AC/323(SAS-097)TP/776 www.sto.nato.int STO TECHNICAL REPORT TR-SAS-097 Robots Underpinning Future NATO Operations (Robots étayant les futures opérations de l’OTAN) Final Report of Task Group SAS-097. Published May 2018 Distribution and Availability on Back Cover NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION ORGANIZATION AC/323(SAS-097)TP/776 www.sto.nato.int STO TECHNICAL REPORT TR-SAS-097 Robots Underpinning Future NATO Operations (Robots étayant les futures opérations de l’OTAN) Final Report of Task Group SAS-097. Edited by: Václav Hlaváč and Michal Reinštein Czech Technical University in Prague Czech Republic The NATO Science and Technology Organization Science & Technology (S&T) in the NATO context is defined as the selective and rigorous generation and application of state-of-the-art, validated knowledge for defence and security purposes. S&T activities embrace scientific research, technology development, transition, application and field-testing, experimentation and a range of related scientific activities that include systems engineering, operational research and analysis, synthesis, integration and validation of knowledge derived through the scientific method. In NATO, S&T is addressed using different business models, namely a collaborative business model where NATO provides a forum where NATO Nations and partner Nations elect to use their national resources to define, conduct and promote cooperative research and information exchange, and secondly an in-house delivery business model where S&T activities are conducted in a NATO dedicated executive body, having its own personnel, capabilities and infrastructure. The mission of the NATO Science & Technology Organization (STO) is to help position the Nations’ and NATO’s S&T investments as a strategic enabler of the knowledge and technology advantage for the defence and security posture of NATO Nations and partner Nations, by conducting and promoting S&T activities that augment and leverage the capabilities and programmes of the Alliance, of the NATO Nations and the partner Nations, in support of NATO’s objectives, and contributing to NATO’s ability to enable and influence security and defence related capability development and threat mitigation in NATO Nations and partner Nations, in accordance with NATO policies. The total spectrum of this collaborative effort is addressed by six Technical Panels who manage a wide range of scientific research activities, a Group specialising in modelling and simulation, plus a Committee dedicated to supporting the information management needs of the organization. • AVT Applied Vehicle Technology Panel • HFM Human Factors and Medicine Panel • IST Information Systems Technology Panel • NMSG NATO Modelling and Simulation Group • SAS System Analysis and Studies Panel • SCI Systems Concepts and Integration Panel • SET Sensors and Electronics Technology Panel These Panels and Group are the power-house of the collaborative model and are made up of national representatives as well as recognised world-class scientists, engineers and information specialists. In addition to providing critical technical oversight, they also provide a communication link to military users and other NATO bodies. The scientific and technological work is carried out by Technical Teams, created under one or more of these eight bodies, for specific research activities which have a defined duration. These research activities can take a variety of forms, including Task Groups, Workshops, Symposia, Specialists’ Meetings, Lecture Series and Technical Courses. The content of this publication has been reproduced directly from material supplied by STO or the authors. Published May 2018 Copyright © STO/NATO 2018 All Rights Reserved ISBN 978-92-837-2103-1 Single copies of this publication or of a part of it may be made for individual use only by those organisations or individuals in NATO Nations defined by the limitation notice printed on the front cover. The approval of the STO Information Management Systems Branch is required for more than one copy to be made or an extract included in another publication. Requests to do so should be sent to the address on the back cover. ii STO-TR-SAS-097 Table of Contents Page List of Figures viii List of Tables x List of Acronyms xi Acknowledgements xiii SAS-097 Membership List xiv Executive Summary and Synthèse ES-1 Chapter 1 – Introduction 1-1 1.1 Study Context 1-1 1.2 Study Objectives 1-2 1.3 Study Achievements 1-2 1.4 Structure of the Report 1-4 Chapter 2 − Analysis of Operational Requirements 2-1 2.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 2-1 2.1.1 Notes on Findings from SAS-097 Workshop in Paris 2-1 2.2 Analysis of the Conceptual, Technological and Operational Aspects 2-3 of the New Trends in Robotics from Different Perspectives: Control, Sensors, Platform 2.2.1 Control Perspective 2-3 2.2.1.1 Conceptual Aspects 2-3 2.2.1.2 Technological Aspects 2-3 2.2.1.3 Operative Aspects 2-3 2.2.2 Sensors Perspective 2-3 2.2.2.1 Conceptual Aspects 2-3 2.2.2.2 Technological Aspects 2-4 2.2.2.3 Operative Aspects 2-4 2.2.3 Platforms Perspective 2-4 2.2.3.1 Conceptual Aspects 2-4 2.2.3.2 Technological Aspects 2-4 2.2.3.3 Operative Aspects 2-4 2.3 Analysis of Research into Human-Robot Interface (HRI) 2-4 2.3.1 Motivation 2-4 2.3.2 NIFTi and TRADR Project Experience 2-5 2.3.2.1 User-Centric Design 2-5 2.3.2.2 Shared Autonomy 2-5 2.3.2.3 Persistence, Situation Awareness 2-5 STO-TR-SAS-097 iii Chapter 3 − Analysis of Technological Possibilities 3-1 Chapter 4 − Robotic Technology for Military Operational Needs 4-1 4.1 Control 4-1 4.1.1 Long-Term Capability Requirements 4-1 4.1.1.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-1 4.1.1.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-2 4.1.2 Future Emerging Technology Trends 4-3 4.1.2.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-3 4.1.2.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-3 4.1.3 Uninhabited Military Vehicles (UMVs): Human Factors Issues 4-4 in Augmenting the Force 4.1.3.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-4 4.1.3.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-8 4.2 Sensors and Other Inputs 4-23 4.2.1 Long Term Capability Requirements 4-23 4.2.1.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-23 4.2.1.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-23 4.2.2 Future Emerging Technology Trends 4-23 4.2.2.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-23 4.2.2.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-24 4.2.3 Nanotechnology for Autonomous Vehicles 4-25 4.2.3.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-25 4.2.4 Uninhabited Military Vehicles (UMVs): Human Factors Issues 4-25 in Augmenting the Force 4.2.4.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-25 4.2.5 Long Term Capability Requirements 4-25 4.2.5.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-25 4.2.5.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-26 4.2.6 Future Emerging Technology Trends 4-26 4.2.6.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-26 4.2.6.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-27 4.2.7 Nanotechnology for Autonomous Vehicles 4-28 4.2.7.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-28 4.2.7.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-28 4.2.8 Uninhabited Military Vehicles (UMVs): Human Factors Issues 4-29 in Augmenting the Force 4.2.8.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-29 4.2.8.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-31 4.3 Systems 4-33 4.3.1 Long Term Capability Requirements 4-33 4.3.1.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-33 4.3.1.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-34 4.3.2 Future Emerging Technology Trends 4-36 4.3.2.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-36 4.3.2.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-38 4.3.3 Nanotechnology for Autonomous Vehicles 4-40 iv STO-TR-SAS-097 4.3.3.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-40 4.3.3.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-42 4.3.4 Uninhabited Military Vehicles (UMVs): Human Factors Issues 4-47 in Augmenting the Force 4.3.4.1 Analysis of Operational Requirements 4-47 4.3.4.2 Analysis on Technological Possibilities 4-49 4.4 References 4-55 Chapter 5 − Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems 5-1 5.1 Terminology 5-1 5.2 Autonomous Weapon Systems versus International Community 5-3 5.3 Conclusion 5-6 5.4 References 5-6 Chapter 6 − Aspects of Deploying Autonomous Robots 6-1 6.1 Advantages and Constraints for the Use of Robots 6-1 6.1.1 Expectations and Advantages of Unmanned Systems 6-1 6.1.2 Limitations and Constraints in the Use of Robots 6-1 6.1.2.1 Operational Constraints 6-1 6.1.2.2 Environmental Constraints 6-2 6.1.2.3 Communication Transmissions Constraints 6-2 6.1.2.4 Human Constraints 6-2 6.1.3 Requirements for the Use of Military Robots 6-2 6.1.3.1 Adaptation Phase 6-2 6.1.3.2 Modular Design 6-2 6.1.3.3 Controlling Robots 6-2 6.1.3.4 Cooperating with Others 6-3 6.2 The Sensitive Issue of Lethal Autonomous Robots Usages 6-3 6.2.1 A Necessary Characterization 6-3 6.2.2 “LAR” is a Programming Mode 6-3 6.2.3 Justification of the LAR Mode at the Operational Level 6-4 6.2.4 Constraints of Use 6-4 6.2.4.1 Programming Instructions and Rules of Engagement 6-4 6.2.4.2 Operating Mode 6-5 6.2.5 Conditions of Safety 6-5 6.3 Conclusions 6-6 6.4 Reference 6-6 Chapter 7 − Fan-Out 7-1 7.1 References 7-2 Annex A – Mission to Task Decomposition Associated with Robotics A-1 Annex B − Standing NATO Agreements Related to Robotics B-1 STO-TR-SAS-097 v Annex C − Science and Technology Priorities Related to Robotics C-1 C.1 Long Term Aspects of Requirements C-1 C.2 Emerged/Emerging Disruptive Technologies C-12 C.3 Science and Technology Hard Problems
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