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Analysis of the Economic Consequences of the Independence for Catalonia

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Analysis of the Economic Consequences of the Independence for Catalonia ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE INDEPENDENCE FOR CATALONIA WHAT WOULD BE THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF A HYPOTHETICAL INDEPENDENCE FOR CATALONIA IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SPANISH ECONOMIC CRISIS? Paula Rodríguez Osorio 12050504, ES3-3A Supervisor: Ms. Isabel Düsterhöft June 2015 The Hague University of Applied Sciences - European Studies The economic consequences of the independence for Catalonia Paula Rodríguez Osorio WHAT WOULD BE THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF A HYPOTHETICAL INDEPENDENCE FOR CATALONIA IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SPANISH ECONOMIC CRISIS? By Paula Rodríguez Osorio The Hague University of Applied Sciences – Academy of European Studies June 2015 Supervisor: Ms Isabel Düsterhöft Student ID: 12050504 Word Count: Around 9.700 words from Introduction to Recommendations. Including direct quotes and citations. Author‟s declaration: I confirm that this is my own work and that all sources have been fully acknowledge and referenced in the prescribed manner. Respectfully submitted, _________________________________ Date, signature The Hague School of European Studies II The economic consequences of the independence for Catalonia Paula Rodríguez Osorio ABSTRACT The purpose of this dissertation is to determine and evaluate the economic consequences of a hypothetical independence for Catalonia. The desk research was conducted among all the chapters of the dissertation in order to give background of the topic, as well as, to determine these economic consequences. Afterwards, interviews were conducted to three specialists on the topic. During the interviews, the participants were asked various questions regarding the economic consequences of the hypothetic independence for Catalonia. The responses of the interviews prove that the independence of Catalonia would have severe consequences that would seriously damage the economy of Catalonia. The answers obtained from the desk research, from previous studies and cases, support the ones from the interviews. Wide majority of the studies prove that the economy of Catalonia would be damaged in case of independence. The use of interviews was useful for reaching personal and relevant opinions from professionals of different areas involved in the independence. On the whole, after analysing and discussing the results it is possible to conclude that the independence of Catalonia would not benefit but damage the Catalan economy in various aspects. Additionally, it is not seen as a possible solution to overcome the Spanish crisis. Nevertheless, recommendations are mostly subjected to the transparency and objectivity of the process of independence, believing that the Catalan government does not show the complete consequences of this project. The continuous disagreements between the legality and the economic consequences of the Catalan independence lead this research to suggest more dialogue and cooperation. Further conversations and agreements between the Spanish and the Catalan government should be conducted before an unilateral independence is declared. This would affect not only the Catalan economy but also the Spanish and the European. The Hague School of European Studies III The economic consequences of the independence for Catalonia Paula Rodríguez Osorio TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... III TABLE OF CONTENT ................................................................................................................ IV 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 1 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS........................................................................................................ 2 STRUCTURE .................................................................................................................................... 2 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................ 4 HISTORY OF CATALONIA ............................................................................................................ 4 CATALONIA DURING THE SECOND REPUBLIC ...................................................................... 4 CATALONIA DURING THE DICTATOSHIP ................................................................................ 4 CATALONIA IN THE LAST YEARS ............................................................................................... 6 The time of Pujol (1980 – 2003) ..................................................................................................... 6 The Right to Decide (2011 – 2014) ................................................................................................ 6 THE SPANISH ECONOMIC CRISIS ............................................................................................... 6 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................. 7 3. METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................... 9 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................... 9 LIBERALISM .................................................................................................................................. 9 DEMOCRACY .............................................................................................................................. 10 THE PRINCIPLE OF NATIONAL SELF – DETERMINATION .................................................. 10 SECONDARY RESEARCH............................................................................................................ 11 PRIMARY RESEARCH .................................................................................................................. 11 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS ..................................................................................................... 12 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 13 4. RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 14 LEGAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................................................. 14 TYPE OF INDEPENDENCE .......................................................................................................... 17 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE INDEPENDENCE ...................................................... 18 FISCAL AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY ........................................................................................ 18 TRADE FLOWS ........................................................................................................................... 20 EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................................ 23 The Hague School of European Studies IV The economic consequences of the independence for Catalonia Paula Rodríguez Osorio 5. ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................. 25 LEGAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................................................. 25 TYPE OF INDEPENDENCE .......................................................................................................... 26 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES .................................................................................................... 27 FISCAL AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY ........................................................................................ 27 TRADE FLOWS ........................................................................................................................... 28 EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................................ 29 POSSIBLE SOLUTION FOR THE SPANISH ECONOMIC CRISIS ............................................ 30 FUTURE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EU – CATALONIA ....................................................... 30 6. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 31 7. RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................... 33 8. LIST OF REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 34 9. APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................. I APPENDIX I: GLOSSARY............................................................................................................... I APPENDIX II: INTERVIEW QUESTIONS ................................................................................... III QUESTIONS IN SPANISH ........................................................................................................... III QUESTIONS IN ENGLISH .......................................................................................................... IV APPENDIX III: LETTER OF CONSENT ......................................................................................
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