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Inside Spain Nr 105 (25 March - 21 April) William Chislett

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Inside Spain Nr 105 (25 March - 21 April) William Chislett Inside Spain Nr 105 (25 March - 21 April) William Chislett Summary Spain holds its 11th position in Elcano’s Global Presence Index. Parliament rejects Catalan independence referendum. Government narrowly misses budget deficit target, Bank of Spain upgrades GDP growth forecast. Ibex-35 companies generate 63% of their revenues abroad. Foreign Policy Spain holds its 11th position in Elcano’s Global Presence Index Spain was again ranked 11th in the Elcano Global Presence Index, which measures the positioning of countries outside their own borders (see Figure 1). The index is based on a broad array of economic, military and soft presence dimensions. Figure 1. Elcano global presence ranking and scores, 2013* Ranking Score 1. United States 10,417.0 2. Germany 386.1 3. United Kingdom 367.8 4. China 334.4 5. France 308.2 6. Russia 281.0 7. Japan 241.7 8. Netherlands 212.7 9. Canada 203.6 10. Italy 172.4 11. Spain 164.4 (*) Out of 70 countries. Source: Real Instituto Elcano. Over half of Spain’s global presence (54%) is due to its soft dimension (see Figure 2). 1 Figure 2. Spain’s global presence index absolute values and % share in the index of the economic, military and soft presence dimensions 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 Economic presence 11.4 18.3 25.2 46.4 63.8 68.0 76.4 76.7 % of global presence 27.2 34.4 36.8 43.8 44.2 44.0 46.0 46.7 Energy 1.0 0.6 1.5 3.1 3.7 4.6 4.7 7.7 Primary goods 2.4 5.1 5.6 9.9 12.9 14.4 17.5 17.7 Manufactures 2.8 4.6 5.8 9.7 10.8 11.8 14.4 12.6 Services 4.9 7.1 9.1 16.5 21.4 21.7 24.7 23.9 Investments 0.4 0.9 3.0 7.2 15.0 15.6 15.0 14.7 Military presence 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 % of global presence 5.8 4.7 3.9 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 Troops 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Military equipment 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 Soft presence 27.9 32.4 40.7 56.9 78.1 84.1 87.3 85.5 % of global presence 66.8 61.1 59.5 53.7 54.0 54.4 52.6 52.0 Migrations 0.8 1.0 1.7 4.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Tourism 20.0 18.7 24.8 29.8 27.9 28.1 30.0 30.8 Sports 1.5 5.0 2.8 5.8 8.2 8.2 7.9 7.7 Culture 1.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.0 3.6 4.8 5.3 Information 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 8.6 14.6 17.2 17.2 Technology 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 Science 1.6 2.7 3.8 5.3 7.4 7.8 8.5 9.0 Education 0.9 1.7 3.4 1.5 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.2 Development 3.2 1.5 2.1 2.1 5.2 10.3 9.4 6.6 cooperation Global presence index 164.4 42.1 53.0 68.4 106.0 144.6 154.6 166.2 value Position in the index 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 Source: Elcano Royal Institute. The index, calculated annually since 2010, measures the ability of states to project themselves beyond their borders. By comparing a state’s presence with its actual power (or influence), it is possible to measures the extent to which it is punching above or below its weight. Spain, along with Germany and Italy, is currently punching below its weight, on the basis of a comparative analysis of the global presence index and various studies that measure power, whereas emerging nations, such as China and India, appear to be successfully capitalising on their growing global presence and translating it into power. Although several EU countries lost weight in the global sphere over the last year, the leading position of the European Union as a whole has not decreased and, moreover, it has widened the gap with the United States. While the EU’s global presence increased by 78 points, that of the US only rose by 15.1 points. One reason for this apparent paradox is that the size of the individual decreases by EU states is small – changes are below two points in index value for 11 countries including Spain – while France, the UK and Sweden recorded increases. Spain remained in fifth place in the Elcano European Presence Index (see Figure 3). 2 Figure 3. Ranking and scores of the Elcano European Presence Index, 2013* Ranking Score 1. Germany 756.2 2. United Kingdom 728.7 3. France 560.9 4. Netherlands 473.2 5. Spain 349.5 6. Italy 319.5 (*) Out of 28 countries. Source: Real Instituto Elcano. Spain’s official development assistance among the lowest in the world Spain’s net official development assistance (ODA), one of the components in the Elcano Global Presence Index, remained at 0.16% of gross national income (GNI) in 2013, the sixth lowest among OECD countries and far from the United Nations’ goal of 0.7% (see Figure 4). Total ODA reached an all-time high of $134.8 billion thanks to substantial increases by the UK, Sweden, Japan and Germany. Five countries have already reached 0.7% -Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and the UK. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the previous Socialist prime minister (2004- 11), had set 0.7% as the target for 2012, but this was before Spain went into recession and several years of spending cuts. Figure 4. Net Official Development Assistance, 2011-2013 (% of GNI) 2013 2012 2011 France 0.41 0.45 0.53 Germany 0.38 0.37 0.39 Ireland 0.45 0.47 0.51 Italy 0.16 0.14 0.20 Portugal 0.23 0.28 0.31 Spain 0.16 0.16 0.29 UK 0.72 0.56 0.56 OECD average 0.30 0.43 0.47 Source: OECD. The programmes that did receive ODA were mainly those that Spain has to support because it is a member of the EU. Domestic Scene Parliament rejects Catalan independence referendum The Spanish parliament, as expected, overwhelmingly rejected the request of the Catalan regional government to hold a referendum on independence on 9 November. The ruling Popular Party and the Socialists, the main opposition, joined forces with other smaller parties and rejected the move by 229 votes, with 47 votes in favour and one abstention. Catalan and Basque nationalist parties and a left-wing coalition voted in favour. 3 The referendum is unconstitutional, as such votes must be held nationally and not regionally. The government ruled out a national referendum long ago. After the vote, Artur Mas, the Catalan president, vowed to press ahead. Voters would be asked if they wanted Catalonia to be a state and, in a separate question, if they wanted it to be an independent state. Mas is under increasing pressure to call an early election in Catalonia on or after 9 November and use it as a vote for a referendum on independence. The Constitutional Court earlier ruled that it was illegal for Catalonia to call itself a ‘political and legal sovereign entity’ with the right to secede if a majority of its citizens decided to do so through democratic means. This declaration was approved by 85 of the 135 members of the region’s parliament in January 2013. The Court, however, admitted the ‘right to decide’ but only if the constitution was reformed to make this possible. Catalonia’s National Transition Advisory Council, a pro-independence body, issued a report after the vote by the Spanish parliament saying it would be ‘logical’ for an independent Catalonia to be readmitted into the EU as it would be difficult to imagine Catalonia ‘as a sort of island, between France and Spain, outside the Union.’ ‘The hypothetical veto by the Spanish state could obstruct and delay the incorporation of the new state in the EU, but it would not cause a very significant delay, because the disadvantages for the EU and the other member states of a slow or postponed entry would be much more significant than the meager benefits it might mean for them,’ the report stated. The EU Commission was quick to reaffirm its position that Catalonia would be ejected from the EU if it broke away from Spain. ‘The Commission’s position regarding this issue is established in the Treaties of the European Union which apply to all of the member states: if a region of a member state ceases to be a part of this territory and declares independence, the Treaties no longer apply,’ said a spokesperson from the Commission. The first Catalan civic movement against independence was launched this month. The Societat Civil Catalana (SCC) hoped to gain support by rebuffing inside and outside of the region the arguments in favour of independence, an aspiration that is gaining strength. Anti-independence views are hardly heard in Catalonia where most of the media toes the government’s line, particularly TV3, the Catalan language TV channel, and Catalunya Rádio, owned by the regional government.
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