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APPENDIX E History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities Of

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APPENDIX E History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared for: Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services, Inc. April 30, 2019 HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................................................................... 1 TBTA Facilities ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Metropolitan Area Arterial Network ................................................................................................. 4 Other Regional Toll Facilities .............................................................................................................. 4 Regional Public Transportation ......................................................................................................... 5 The Central Business District Tolling Program .................................................................................. 6 TOLL COLLECTION ON THE TBTA FACILITIES ................................................................................................... 6 Present and Proposed Toll Structures and Operation .................................................................. 6 Cashless Tolling System ..................................................................................................................... 13 TBTA’s Role in E-ZPass......................................................................................................................... 14 Cashless, Open Road Tolling (“Cashless Tolling”) ....................................................................... 16 Passenger Car Toll Rate Trends and Inflation ............................................................................... 16 HISTORICAL TRAFFIC, REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND ESTIMATED/BUDGETED NUMBERS FOR 2018 ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2008 to 2018 .......................................................................................... 22 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2018 .................................................................................... 25 Monthly Traffic, 2018 ......................................................................................................................... 26 Changes in Monthly Traffic, 2017 to 2018 ..................................................................................... 27 Operating Expenses, 2008 to 2018 ................................................................................................. 28 FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC GROWTH ..................................................................................................... 31 Employment, Population, and Motor Vehicle Registrations ..................................................... 31 Fuel Availability and Prices .............................................................................................................. 41 Toll Increase Impacts, Collection Methods, and Elasticity ........................................................ 45 Availability of Capacity on TBTA Facilities .................................................................................... 47 TBTA and Regional Operational and Construction Impacts..................................................... 48 Summary of Assumptions and Conditions .................................................................................... 64 PROJECTED TRAFFIC, REVENUES, AND EXPENSES ....................................................................................... 66 Estimated Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2019 ..................................................................................... 66 Traffic and Toll Revenue at Current Tolls ....................................................................................... 68 Traffic and Toll Revenue with Assumed 2021 Toll Increase ........................................................ 68 Effects of Second Avenue Subway Construction in Forecast Years ....................................... 71 Effects of Cashless Tolling in Forecast Years ................................................................................. 71 Operating Expenses .......................................................................................................................... 71 Net Revenues from Toll Operations ................................................................................................ 72 REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS .............................................................................................................. 73 Post-Superstorm Sandy Reports, Capital Investments, and Rehabilitation ............................ 74 Inspection Reports, Flagged Conditions and Rehabilitation Projects ..................................... 75 Other System Wide Improvements ................................................................................................. 83 Long-Term Outlook for TBTA Facilities ............................................................................................. 84 CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................................................................ 84 i HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Current Toll Rates at TBTA Facilities, Effective Since March 31, 2019 ........................................ 8 Table 2 Year-End E-ZPass Participation Rates ............................................................................................ 14 Table 3 Historical Trends in Cash, TBM and E-ZPass Passenger Car Toll Rates ..................................... 18 Table 4 E-ZPass Passenger Toll Rates versus Consumer Price Index ....................................................... 19 Table 5 Annual Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2008 to 2018 ....................................................... 23 Table 6 Summary of Annual Paid Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2008 to 2018............................................ 24 Table 7 Actual Changes in January - February Traffic, 2018 to 2019 .................................................... 25 Table 8 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2018 .................................................................................... 26 Table 9 Monthly Traffic Variations, 2018 ...................................................................................................... 27 Table 10 Changes in Monthly Average Daily Traffic, 2017 to 2018 ....................................................... 28 Table 11 Historical Operating Expenses, 2008 to 2018 ............................................................................. 29 Table 12 Employment Trends ........................................................................................................................ 33 Table 13 Employment Projections ................................................................................................................ 34 Table 14 Labor Force(a) Conditions, 2010 & 2018 ...................................................................................... 35 Table 15 Housing Building Permits Issued within the City, 2015 - 2018 ................................................... 36 Table 16 Major Manhattan Office Buildings Under Construction in 2019 ............................................. 37 Table 17 Population Trends 1970 to 2017 .................................................................................................... 38 Table 18 Population Projections ................................................................................................................... 39 Table 19 Motor Vehicle Registrations .......................................................................................................... 40 Table 20 New York City Motor Vehicle Registrations, 2014 to 2018 ....................................................... 41 Table 21 Elasticity Factors .............................................................................................................................. 47 Table 22 Estimated Percent Change in Average Toll Rates and Traffic in 2021 ................................. 47 Table 23 Estimated Changes in Annual Traffic, 2018 to 2019 ................................................................. 67 Table 24 Estimated 2019 Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue ............................................................... 67 Table 25 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast, Constant Tolls ..................................................................... 69 Table 26 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast with Assumed 2021 Toll Increase .................................... 70 Table 27 Projected Operating Expenses .................................................................................................... 72 Table 28 Net Toll Revenue Forecast............................................................................................................
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