Appendix E: History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues And
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APPENDIX E HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority April 26, 2013 Prepared for the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority A Constituent Agency of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority By TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................................. E-1 Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) .......................................................... E-1 Metropolitan Area Arterial Network ............................................................................... E-3 Other Regional Toll Facilities .......................................................................................... E-4 Regional Public Transportation ....................................................................................... E-5 TOLL COLLECTION ON THE TBTA FACILITIES ................................................................ E-5 Present and Proposed Toll Structures and Operation ...................................................... E-5 E-ZPass Electronic Toll Collection System ..................................................................... E-8 TBTA‘s Role in E-ZPass ............................................................................................... E-10 Passenger Car Toll Rate Trends and Inflation ............................................................... E-11 HISTORICAL TRAFFIC, REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND ESTIMATED/BUDGETED NUMBERS FOR 2012 ................................................................ E-13 Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2002 to 2012 ........................................................................ E-13 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2012 .................................................................. E-19 Monthly Traffic, 2012 .................................................................................................... E-20 Changes in Monthly Traffic, 2011 to 2012 .................................................................... E-21 Operating Expenses 2002 to 2012 ................................................................................. E-22 FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC GROWTH....................................................................... E-24 Employment, Population and Motor Vehicle Registrations .......................................... E-24 Fuel Conditions .............................................................................................................. E-30 Toll Impacts and Elasticity ............................................................................................ E-32 Bridge and Tunnel Capacities ........................................................................................ E-34 TBTA and Regional Operational and Construction Impacts ......................................... E-35 Summary of Assumptions and Conditions .................................................................... E-45 PROJECTED TRAFFIC, REVENUES AND EXPENSES ...................................................... E-47 Estimated Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2013 .................................................................... E-48 Traffic and Toll Revenue at Current Tolls ..................................................................... E-49 Traffic and Toll Revenue with 2015 Toll Increase ........................................................ E-50 Effects of Second Avenue Subway Construction in Forecast Years ............................. E-53 Operating Expenses ....................................................................................................... E-53 Net Revenues from Toll Operations .............................................................................. E-54 REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS ................................................................................ E-55 Review of Inspection Reports ........................................................................................ E-56 Other System-wide Improvements ................................................................................ E-65 Long-Term Outlook for TBTA Facilities ...................................................................... E-67 E- i TABLES Table Page Table 1 Current Toll Rates at TBTA Facilities, Effective March 3, 2013 E-6 Table 2 E-ZPass Participation Rates E-9 Table 3 Historical Trends in Cash Passenger Car Toll Rates E-11 Table 4 E-ZPass Passenger Toll Rates Versus Consumer Price Index E-12 Table 5 Annual Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue: 2002 to 2012 E-17 Table 6 Summary of Annual Paid Traffic and Toll Revenue: 2002 to 2012 E-18 Table 7 Estimated Changes in January and February Traffic – 2012 to 2013 E-18 Table 8 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2012 E-19 Table 9 Monthly Traffic Variations, 2012 E-20 Table 10 Changes in Monthly Average Daily Traffic – 2011 to 2012 E-21 Table 11 Historical Operating Expenses: 2002 to 2012 E-23 Table 12 Employment Trends and Projections E-26 Table 13 Labor Force Conditions, 2010 & 2012 E-27 Table 14 Population Trends and Projections E-29 Table 15 Motor Vehicle Registrations E-30 Table 16 New York City Motor Vehicle Registrations, 2008-2012 E-30 Table 17 Elasticity Factors E-33 Table 18 Estimated Percent Change in Average Toll Rates and Traffic in 2015 E-34 Table 19 Comparison of 2012 Traffic with Highest Recorded Levels Since 1970 E-35 Table 20 Estimated Changes in Annual Traffic – 2012 to 2013 E-48 Table 21 Estimated 2013 Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue E-49 Table 22 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast, Constant Tolls E-51 Table 23 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast, with 2015 Toll Increase E-52 Table 24 Projected Operating Expenses E-54 Table 25 Net Toll Revenue Forecast E-54 Table 26 Opening Dates of TBTA Facilities E-55 Table 27 Capital Investments by Facility, 1992 to 2012 E-56 Table 28 Facility Inspection Firms E-58 FIGURES Figure Page Figure 1 Location Map E-2 Figure 2A/2B Aggregated TBTA Facilities Paid Traffic and Toll Revenue, 1970 to 2012 E-15 E-ii April 26, 2013 To Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority: In accordance with your request, Stantec Consulting Services Inc (Stantec) conducted this annual study to develop projections of traffic, toll revenues and expenses for the toll bridge and tunnel facilities operated by the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA), and to provide an overview of the physical conditions of each facility. We have reviewed the bridge and tunnel inspection reports provided by TBTA and discussed TBTA‘s on-going maintenance and capital programs with its engineering staff. Our projections have taken into account: (1) the general physical condition of TBTA‘s toll facilities; (2) traffic and toll revenue data, reflecting the 16 toll increases since 1972; (3) the impact of the E-ZPass electronic toll collection system; (4) the toll structure; (5) planned and possible future toll increases; (6) economic, population, employment and other demographic forecasts in the New York Metropolitan Area; (7) the traffic capacities of the bridges and tunnels and the existing roadway network that feeds the facilities in terms of the potential for future growth of peak versus non-peak period traffic; (8) current and programmed construction activities on TBTA‘s facilities and the arterial highway network serving the New York Metropolitan Area, including the toll-free East River bridges; and (9) mass transit network projects. In 2012, actual total toll revenues for the TBTA facilities were $1,491.0 million, or 0.6 percent higher than our 2012 forecast of $1,481.9 million and 0.7 percent lower than actual 2011 toll revenue. Total revenue traffic was 282.6 million vehicles, or 1.2 percent lower than previously forecasted at 285.9 million vehicles and 0.3 percent lower than actual 2011 traffic. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE The New York Metropolitan Area‘s transportation infrastructure consists of an extensive network of highways, tunnels and bridges (both tolled and toll-free), regional bus and commuter rail and the New York City transit system. Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) TBTA operates nine toll facilities within New York City (the ―City‖), consisting of seven bridges and two tunnels that provide vital links across the City‘s rivers and bays. In 2012, these facilities carried 286.0 million total vehicles, of which 282.6 million were toll paying, and generated $1,491.0 million in toll revenue. (Non-revenue transactions include police, emergency and TBTA vehicles.) The locations of the facilities are shown on the following map in the context of the regional highway network. E-1 Figure 1 Location Map E-2 The facilities are briefly described as follows: Verrazano-Narrows Bridge - a two-level suspension bridge, with three lanes of traffic in each direction on both decks. It crosses the entrance to New York Harbor and connects Brooklyn and Staten Island. Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) Bridge (formerly the Triborough Bridge) - a complex of three bridges connecting Manhattan, the Bronx and Queens, with a central connecting interchange on Randall‘s Island. Manhattan is reached via a six-lane vertical lift bridge over the Harlem River. The Bronx is accessed via an eight-lane truss bridge over the Bronx Kill. An eight-lane suspension bridge over the East River leads to Queens. Bronx-Whitestone Bridge - a suspension bridge, with three lanes of traffic in each direction, which crosses the East River connecting the boroughs of Queens and the Bronx. Throgs Neck