New York City Third Quarter 2017
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Market Report New York City Third Quarter 2017 Avison Young’s 2017 Third Quarter Manhattan Market Report includes our insights on office leasing, investment sales, debt & equity, valuation & advisory and retail activity. While there has been some pullback in investment sales activity and the debt & equity environment, at the same time positive influences have created opportunities within the other groups. In the following pages, we highlight not only the challenges, but also the bright spots that point to a New York City real estate market where the fundamentals overall remain intact. The Manhattan office leasing market was heavily influenced by a greater flight to quality towards the newer and more efficient properties by the less price sensitive tenants committing to significant amounts of space in and around the Hudson Yards area in Midtown. While some members of our valuation and advisory team like to refer to the Hudson Yards area and its emergence as the new “Last Frontier,” both Midtown South and Downtown have proven attractive to a growing mix of tenants including co-working and government/public administration agencies, which helped push leasing volume in these markets well above year-over-year levels. Healthy leasing demand overall has kept the Manhattan market in equilibrium with a 10.4 percent vacancy rate at the end of the third quarter, and plenty of space options remain suitable for all office occupiers regardless of price sensitivity. A weak supply of availabilities led to a decline in investment sales activity when measured by both dollar volume and number of transactions. This trickled down to the debt and equity market, as acquisition financing declined in lockstep. With a tightening of bank standards, as well as a pullback in construction financing, the end result has been more conservative lending. Although more expensive due to higher interest costs, watch for alternative lenders to fill the void. Despite these challenges, enhanced by headwinds that include rising interest rates, foreign capital controls (in relation to China), and a depressed leasing market for brick and mortar retail, the bright side is there is a tremendous amount of capital seeking investment opportunities within a market with healthy business and steadily improving economic fundamentals. As a result, watch for year-end closing urgency for investment sales transactions to potentially generate a pick-up in activity. For retail leasing, all is not doom and gloom. Despite third quarter-end big box and staple retail announcements of Chapter 11 bankruptcies, there is hope for those that are able to adapt to current times and incorporate experiential concepts into their business strategy. As Manhattan retail continues to stabilize after the rent declines seen during 2016 and so far into 2017, most corridors are now focusing on food, fitness and other experiential concepts. Couple this with innovation and technology, which is becoming a focal point of all new brick and mortar retail strategies, watch for vacant space to be divided up and served as a non-traditional retail use. There are various positive factors in play that continue to benefit real estate within the Manhattan market. We welcome you to reach out to any of our Avison Young service lines to assist you with your strategic real estate decisions. Best, A. Mitti Liebersohn Marisha Clinton President and Managing Director, NYC Operations Senior Director of Research, Tri-State Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com Third Quarter 2017 / New York City Office Leasing Increasingly Diverse Tenant Mix Drives Manhattan Market Facts Leasing for the Third Quarter of 2017; Flight to 12% Quality Also a Focal Point Year-over-year increase in 3Q17 For Manhattan overall, what initially appeared as a slow start to the summer in regards Manhattan leasing volume to office leasing activity, ended up being a ramp up mid-season heading into the fall. Third quarter 2017 office leasing volume of 8.0 million square feet was up 12.0 percent year-over-year, as significant transactions were prominent among government and 8.0M SF* public administration agencies, as well as professional and business services (PBS) firms. Third quarter Manhattan leasing The strong activity from these growing office-using industries, coupled with steady volume velocity from the traditional FIRE (financial services, insurance, real estate) and TAMI (technology, advertising, media, information) sectors, helped drive year-to-date leasing volume closer to that seen a year ago. This healthy leasing demand spread across a 20%+ more diverse range of industries has kept the overall Manhattan market in equilibrium with a 10.4 percent vacancy rate at the end of the third quarter. Percentage of co-working and PBS leasing activity in Midtown South Modernization and a Growing Array of Tenants Characterizes Midtown Leasing Midtown’s third quarter leasing volume was down moderately year-over-year, but the 10.4% market continued to capture the lion’s share of large-block activity for leases greater than 100,000 square feet. 10 out of a total of 14 large-block leases were signed in Third quarter vacancy rate, Manhattan overall in equilibrium Midtown during the third quarter of this year, as in the same period last year. Notable transactions by a growing array of tenants included new lease signings executed by *At Avison Young, we track office properties that are 20,000 square feet and greater PBS firms 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East (580,000 square feet at 498 Seventh Avenue) and Accenture (250,000 square feet at 1 Manhattan West for occupancy in Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com New York City Third Quarter 2017 / Office Leasing 2020), as well as a renewal by the United Nations government entity (187,000 MARKET DATA POINTS square feet at 305 East 46th Street). TAMI tenant Amazon also executed a significant quarter-end new deal (360,000 square feet at 5 Manhattan West Manhattan Overall for occupancy in 2018). It is evident that a flight to quality towards new and efficient office space remains a focal point for the less price-sensitive tenants. Indicator 3Q16 3Q17 We have not only seen this recently from Accenture and Amazon in announced future moves, but also from FIRE tenants Third Point Management and Guardian Vacancy 9.70% 10.40% Life Insurance, in their upcoming relocations to the newer Hudson Yards area. Despite active leasing announced in Hudson Yards and the surrounding area, Rent $77.17 $79.37 the third quarter overall Midtown vacancy rate rose modestly to 10.3 percent from 10.2 percent year-over-year. We attribute the slight increase to more Class Absorption (244,367) SF 1,410,885 SF A space that came on the market in the Plaza District submarket. The Midtown overall (all classes) average asking rent for the third quarter of $87.30 is up 3.0 percent from $84.79 one year ago, and remains stable with the prior quarter. Midtown Overall Beyond TAMI, Co-Working and PBS Firms Push Midtown South Leasing Indicator 3Q16 3Q17 Higher The third quarter leasing volume in Midtown South is up double-digits year- Vacancy 10.20% 10.30% over-year due in part to the notable renewal and expansion deal by Group Nine Media (100,000 square feet at 568 Broadway) and other sizable TAMI transactions Rent $84.79 $87.30 in the 40,000 to 60,000-square-foot range. Although TAMI activity made up over 60.0 percent of the total leasing volume in Midtown South during the quarter, Absorption (232,834) SF 1,658,693 SF real estate services (mostly co-working) and PBS companies together made up over 20.0 percent. This activity is representative of the growing diversity within this market (particularly in the mid-to-small size range transactions of Midtown South Overall 40,000 square feet and below). The overall vacancy rate for Midtown South of 7.9 percent for the third quarter, is up from 7.0 percent year-over-year. This Indicator 3Q16 3Q17 increase is largely the result of direct space in excess of 380,000 square feet that came online during the quarter, mostly within the Hudson Square, Chelsea and Vacancy 7.00% 7.90% Gramercy Park submarkets. The Midtown South overall average asking rent for the period of $71.95 (stable with the prior quarter), is up over 9.0 percent from Rent $65.85 $71.95 $65.85 one year ago, representing the highest year-over-year increase across any of the markets in Manhattan. Absorption (128,628) SF (143,538) SF New York City Government and Public Agency Leasing - Primary Driver of Downtown Volume Growth Downtown Overall The Downtown office leasing market experienced volume growth well above its quarterly five-year average, spurred by significant new lease signings executed Indicator 3Q16 3Q17 by government and public administration agencies, as well as TAMI firms during the third quarter. Large-block leases included new signings by the New York Vacancy 10.20% 12.20% City Housing Authority (461,000 square feet at 90 Church Street), the New York City Department of Investigation (276,000 square feet at 180 Maiden Lane) and Rent $59.72 $64.88 Macmillan Publishers (261,000 square feet at 120 Broadway). In addition, the law firm of Lewis Brisbois Bisgaard & Smith rounded out the fourth large-block Absorption 117,095 SF 104,270 SF lease Downtown with its renewal/expansion (100,952 square feet at 77 Water Street). The overall vacancy rate for Downtown of 12.2 percent for the third Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com New York City Third Quarter 2017 / Office Leasing quarter is up from 10.2 percent year- Largest Blocks of Contiguous Space Currently Available over-year. In addition to availability at 3 World Trade Center, there are meaningful amounts of direct space Address Square Feet Market also impacting vacancy that came on the market this quarter, primarily 3 World Trade Center 1,803,484 World Trade Center in the Financial District.