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Rethinking Third Avenue: Savills Studley

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Rethinking Third Avenue: Savills Studley Savills Studley Research Savills Studley Insights September 2015 RE-THINKING THirD AVENUE We compare the available stock of office space along Third Avenue versus the availability of space within the balance of the Grand Central submarket. We find that leasing activity along the Third Avenue corridor has accelerated, especially among Class B/C buildings. Despite the relatively low level of current availability, we think that Class B/C space along Third Avenue represents one of the last “value plays” in Manhattan, particularly for clients who wish to be in amenity-rich buildings close to public transportation. With an increase in the amount of higher-priced, new construction set to come online in the Downtown and Midtown submarkets, the relative attractiveness of Third Avenue is apt to grow. Savills Studley | Insights September 2015 There has been no shortage of media attention broadcasting the increase in Manhattan’s office supply. While many of the developers have secured the anchor tenants necessary to kick-start construction, significant supply is still to come. Table 1. Select Manhattan Office Projects Under Construction and Proposed, Q2 2015 TOTAL RBA AVAILABLE PROJECT (LOCATION) (MSF) (MSF) STATUS / PROJECTED COMPLETION / DETAILS ANNOUNCED TENANTS 55 HUDSON YARDS Under Construction 1.30 1.22 Delivering early-2018 Boies, Schiller (11TH AVE. BETWEEN 33RD/34TH ST.) 51 stories; Related, Oxford, Mitsui 30 HUDSON YARDS Under Construction 2.39 1.40 Delivering mid-2019 Time Warner (500 W. 33RD) 90 stories; Related Under Construction 10 HUDSON YARDS Coach, SAP 1.73 0.26 Delivering late-2015 and L’Oreal (501 W. 30TH ST.) 52 stories; Related 1 MANHATTAN WEST Under Construction 2.10 1.55 Delivering mid-2019 Skadden, Arps (400 W. 33RD ST AT 9TH AVE.) 67 stories; Brookfield WEST TOWER Proposed 2.00 2.00 n/a (11TH AVE. BETWEEN 32ND/33RD ST.) Related 3 HUDSON BOULEVARD Proposed 1.87 1.87 n/a (555 W. 34TH ST.) 66 stories; Moinian 435 10TH AVENUE + 507 W. 34TH ST. Proposed + 510-28 W. 35TH ST. 2.85 2.85 n/a 61 stories; Tishman Speyer (FORMER “HUDSON SPIRE”) Proposed 438 11TH AVENUE 0.70 – 1.70 0.70 – 1.70 n/a Tishman Speyer Proposed 50 HUDSON YARDS 2.30 2.30 n/a 62 stories; Related Proposed 511 W. 35TH ST. + 451 10TH AVE. 0.70 – 0.80 0.70 – 0.80 n/a Spitzer Under Construction 425 PARK AVENUE 0.67 0.67 Delivering 2018 n/a 47 stories; L&L Approved 1 VANDERBILT 1.60 1.40 Delivering 2021 TD Bank 63 stories; SL Green Under Construction 3 WORLD TRADE CENTER 2.80 2.28 Delivering early-2018 Group M 80 stories; Silverstein 2 WORLD TRADE CENTER Proposed 21st Century 2.80 n/a Delivering 2020 Fox; News Corp. (200 GREENWICH ST.) 80 stories; Silverstein (tentative) Source: Savills Studley, CoStar and company websites. savills-studley.com/research 2 Savills Studley | Insights September 2015 Despite conventional wisdom that suggests that an increase Chart 1. Westside II Submarket in supply, holding demand constant, should bring about a decrease in prices, the increase in availability from new construction across Manhattan is likely to have the opposite effect. Why? Asking prices of new construction can be significantly above prices of comparable, but older space. For example, asking rents for offices under construction at Hudson Yards average $85-$105/sf—with prices up to $140/sf for higher-priced floors—whereas asking rents on all other Class A space in the West Side II submarket (Chart 1 at left) averaged $84.79 in Q2 2015. Similarly, if one excludes the available space from 1 North End Avenue and One World Trade Center, Class A office rents in the area south of Fulton and Vesey Streets averaged just under $53/sf in Q2 2015—30%-35% below average asking rents on these two newer buildings (Chart 2). As newly-constructed offices arrives on the market, average asking rents in submarkets like Downtown and Midtown West are likely to rise—directly as a result of projects such as 1 Vanderbilt, Hudson Yards and 2 World Trade Center, which should make rents in buildings along Third Avenue that much more attractive by comparison. But even if we strip out the “new construction” effect, we think that Third Avenue buildings offer value on a relative basis. Source: Savills Studley Chart 2. Q2 2015 Asking Rents on Class A Lower Manhattan (Downtown I) Space, $/sf $90 $81.42 $75.00 $60 $52.93 $30 ONE WORLD TRADE CENTER 1 NORTH END AVENUE ALL OTHER LOWER MANHATTAN BUILT 2014 (FORMER NYMEX BUILDING) CLASS A SPACE* BUILT 1997 Source: Savills Studley and CoStar * Includes direct Class A properties only; excludes sublet space. Area includes Manhattan south of Vesey and Fulton Streets. savills-studley.com/research 3 Savills Studley | Insights September 2015 The “Third Avenue Corridor,” which we define as Third Avenue along Third Avenue has fallen by roughly 50%, in contrast to from roughly 39th Street to 57th Street (Chart 3 and space in the Grand Central submarket as a whole. Excluding Appendix I) comprises just over 22 msf. The area’s popularity Third Avenue, available space in Grand Central has expanded has grown in recent quarters; the amount of available space slightly (Chart 4). Chart 3. Map of Third Avenue Corridor and Grand Central Excluding Third Avenue Submarket Source: Savills Studley Chart 4. Comparison: Third Avenue and Grand Central Excluding Third Avenue Available Space 7,000,000 11,000,000 Third Avenue All Classes, Total Avail SF Grand Central Excluding Third Ave All Classes, Total Avail SF 6,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 9,000,000 4,000,000 8,000,000 3,000,000 7,000,000 2,000,000 6,000,000 1,000,000 5,000,000 0 4,000,000 Q2 '12 Q2 '06 Q2 '08 Q2 '09 Q2 '10 Q2 '11 Q4 '12 Q2 '13 Q2 '14 Q2 '15 Q4 '06 Q2 '07 Q4 '08 Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '07 Source: CoStar savills-studley.com/research 4 Savills Studley | Insights September 2015 A spate of leasing activity over the past several quarters has been responsible for the decrease in Third Avenue availability (Table 2), with available Class B/C space having been trimmed the most (Chart 5). Table 2. Recent Leasing Transactions Along the Third Avenue Corridor BUILDING QUARTER OF BUILDING CLASS TENANT NEW/RELET/SUBLET LEASE SF LEASE SIGNING 919 THIRD AVENUE A Bloomberg New (15 yrs.) 340,000 Q2 2015 41,000 Association of 708 THIRD AVENUE B/C Renewal + Expansion (23,000 renewal; Q2 2015 National Advertisers 18,000 expansion) 666 THIRD AVENUE A Van Eck Global New 53,000 Q1 2015 875 THIRD AVENUE A JPB Foundation New (15 yrs.) 31,000 Q1 2015 112,000 expansion 909 THIRD AVENUE A Interpublic Group Sublease/ Expansion Q1 2015 (220,000 occupied) 909 THIRD AVENUE A AlixPartners Sublease (12 yrs.) 65,000 Q1 2015 750 THIRD AVENUE B/C Kaplan Sublease (7 yrs.) 80,000 Q1 2015 205 E 42ND ST B/C WeWork New 122,000 Q4 2014 777 THIRD AVENUE A EPIQ Systems, Inc. Sublease (11 yrs.) 49,000 Q4 2014 Source: Savills Studley and CoStar Chart 5. Comparison: Third Avenue Class A and Class B/C Available Space 3,500,000 Third Avenue, Class A, Total Available Space (SF) Third Avenue, Class B/C, Total Available Space (SF) 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Q2 '12 Q2 '06 Q2 '08 Q2 '09 Q2 '10 Q2 '11 Q4 '12 Q2 '13 Q2 '14 Q2 '15 Q4 '06 Q2 '07 Q4 '08 Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '07 Source: CoStar savills-studley.com/research 5 Savills Studley | Insights September 2015 Even with the decline in available space, however, Third trend has materialized, with asking rents on Third Avenue Avenue asking rents have plateaued over the last several space currently at a 7% discount to asking rents on Grand quarters (Chart 6). Whereas Class B/C rents on the Third Central space. As recently as three years ago, Class B/C Avenue corridor have typically been higher than asking rents rents along Third Avenue asked more than 25% above on comparable grade Grand Central space, the opposite comparable space in Grand Central. Chart 6. Asking Rents on Class B/C Office Space ($/sf) $80 Third Avenue Corridor, Class B/C, Direct Grand Central Excluding Third Avenue, Class B/C, Direct $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 Q2 '98 Q2 '01 Q1 '02 Q4 '02 Q2 '04 Q1 '12 Q2 '10 Q3 '12 Q2 '13 Q2 '95 Q1 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '99 Q4 '99 Q3 '00 Q3 '03 Q1 '05 Q4 '05 Q3 '06 Q2 '07 Q3 '09 Q1 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '14 Q4 '14 Q3 '94 Q1 '96 Q4 '96 Q3 '97 Source: CoStar We note that the attractiveness of Third Avenue space relative between Class A rents in the Third Avenue corridor and to other availabilities in the Grand Central neighborhood is corresponding Class A rents in the Grand Central submarket a Class B/C phenomenon; as shown in Chart 7, the gap has actually narrowed over the last several quarters. Chart 7. Asking Rents on Class A Office Space ($/sf) $110 Third Avenue, Class A, Direct $100 Grand Central Excluding Third Avenue, Class A, Direct $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Q2 '95 Q2 '98 Q2 '01 Q1 '02 Q4 '02 Q2 '04 Q1 '12 Q2 '10 Q3 '12 Q2 '13 Q1 '08 Q4 '08 Q3 '94 Q1 '96 Q4 '96 Q1 '99 Q4 '99 Q3 '00 Q3 '03 Q1 '05 Q4 '05 Q3 '06 Q2 '07 Q3 '09 Q1 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '14 Q4 '14 Q3 '97 Source: CoStar savills-studley.com/research 6 Savills Studley | Insights September 2015 We show several Class B/C buildings in the Third Avenue of space built in the Grand Central sub-market with lower Corridor with ample available space (Table 3) and suggest asking rents.
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