Belarusian Yearbook 2014

Website of the expert Community of belarus Nashe MNeNie 1 (‘Our OpiNiON’) agenCy for soCial and politiCal expert appraisal Belarusian Y e a r b o o k 2014 a survey and analysis of developments in the republic of belarus in 2014 Lohvinaŭ Vilnius 2015 2 Belarusian YearBook 2014 Compiled and edited by: Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova english version translated by Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Taciana Tuluš english version edited by Max Nuijens scientific reviewers and consultants: Oleg Manaev, Doctor of sociology (independent institute of socio- economic and Political studies); Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of sociology (laboratory of axiometrical research NOVAK); Alexei Pikulik, Doctor of Political sciences (Belarusian institute for strategic studies – BISS): Irina Dounaeva, Ph. D. (independent expert); Olga Shparaga, Ph. D., associate Professor (Center for european studies); Andrey Kazakevich, Doctor of Political sciences (institute of Political studies Political Sphere); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian economic research and outreach Center – BEROC); Miroslav Kollar (Institute for Public Affairs, Program Director of the slovak annual Global Report). Prepress by Stefani Kalinowskaya The yearbook is published with the support of The German Marshall Fund of the United States PACT The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. © Website of the expert community of Belarus “Nashe Mnenie” (nmnby.eu), 2105 © agency for social and Political expert appraisal, 2015 issn © logvino literaturos namai, 2015 3 CONTENTS EditorIAl FOrEwOrD 7 State AuthorITIES Nikolai Burov Presidential administration: always prepared for elections and crises! 11 Ina Ramasheuskaya ‘internal’ overcoming of the Crisis: From the Myasnikovich Cabinet to the kobyakov Cabinet 19 Andrei Porotnikov national security: stagnation against the background of the war and regional security crisis 26 Dzmitry Kukhlei representative Bodies: Greater publicity for unchanged rules of the game 36 Oleg Fedotov reform of the Judicial system in the Tradition of ‘Cosmetic repairs’ 46 FOrEIgN POlicy Tatsiana Manionak, Anatoly Pankovski Belarus – russia: Challenging tracks of the new ‘common market’ 57 4 Belarusian YearBook 2014 Dzianis Melyantsou Belarus – european union: a new agenda on the background of the ukrainian crisis 66 Andrei Fyodarau Belarusian-american relations: one more thaw or a change of the paradigm? 75 Anna Maria Dyner Polish-Belarusian relations: Time of technical contacts 83 Oleg Bogutsky Belarus – ukraine: strategically important neighborhood 90 Andrei Yeliseyeu Belarus and Developing Countries: looking for new ‘Venezuelas’ 97 SOCIETy Yuri Chausov Civil society: away from politics towards cooperation with the authorities 107 Dzmitry Kukhlei Political Parties: a Conceptual crisis and the search for alternatives to Ploshcha 117 Alena Artsiomenko national Media system: The spiral of inefficiency 127 5 Mikhail Doroshevich, Marina Sokolova internet: infrastructure, users, regulation 136 Vladimir Dоunaev education: reformers’ successes and failures 144 Andrei Laurukhin science and innovation ‘under Martial law’ 151 Natallia Vasilevich The state and the Church: Declarative ‘close cooperation’ 159 Andrey Vitushka Health Care: lost opportunities 167 Maxim Zhbankov Culture / Triumphs of Decor: nation as a point and gadge 174 Barys Tasman sports: strangers are dearer than the locals 182 Yuri Drakokhrust Public opinion: under the sign of events in ukraine 191 Economy Dzmitry Kruk 201 Macroeconomic situation: slipping into a “poverty trap” 203 Alexander Mukha Currency Market: under pressure of external factors 214 6 Belarusian YearBook 2014 Uladzimir Valetka labor Market: a ‘hostage’ of low profitability 222 Aliaksandr Autushka-Sikorski energy sector: local oil-processing crisis 238 Maria Akulova Foreign investments: old strategy for raising capital remains in place 246 Vadim Sekhovich real economy: relying on private initiative 254 AuthorS 262 7 EditorIAl FOrEwOrD Belarusian Yearbook 2014 presents a comprehensive analysis of the key developments in the main sectors of the state and society. since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook has evolved as a crucial annual initiative of the Belarusian expert community to compile, conceptualize and present a chronicle of Belarus’s contemporary history. last year, the compilers of the Yearbook wrote: “the country spent virtually the entire year waiting for something to happen or some external force to give an impetus to further development or change the status quo.” in 2014, the country received such an external impetus – russia’s annexation of Crimea, which followed the ‘Maidan,’ and military operations in the east of ukraine. That external shock may not have been strong enough to shake the Belarusian model; however, it produced a consider- able impact on many processes in the country, which had been developing mechanically due to some previous momentum. russia’s aggression in ukraine affected Belarus’s foreign policy, as the country tried playing a new role in regional and – on a broader scale – european security policy. it succeeded to some extent. as a result, the Belarusian authorities gradually resusci- tated the old pattern of balancing between russia and the West. Minsk assumed a peacekeeping function and provided russia, ukraine, and the european union with a venue for negotiations. While maintaining its relationship with russia as its ally, Be- larus started building constructive relations with the new ukrainian authorities. Contacts between Belarus and the european union were invigorated, while the agenda for the country’s en- gagement with the eu mostly focused on ‘pragmatic’ objectives, which the Belarusian authorities had emphasized since 2011. The events in ukraine reshaped public opinion resulting in an increase in social optimism and trust in the authorities against the backdrop of unchanged or decreasing living standards. Drawing on these trends, the president and the government made respective domestic policy moves: the mechanism to pass on the growing costs of the failing economic policy to households was used at its full capacity, whereas the government with its declara- tions of the ‘need for reforms’ de facto lost its leverage to manage the economy and was replaced by a new team at the end of the year. 8 Belarusian YearBook 2014 Because the Belarusian economy is to a great extent ‘pegged’ to russia, the slower economic growth in the latter and deprecia- tion of the russian ruble had a predictable impact on Belarus – export supplies dropped, GDP growth slowed, and the national currency lost its value. The launch of the eurasian economic union (eeu) can hardly make up for the heavy losses of the country, which might be slipping into a ‘poverty trap.’ There are no visible preconditions for overcoming or at least mitigating some of the effects of the regional political and economic crisis. experts are making forecasts that as long as tensions in the relationship between russia and the West remain, Belarus will seek to expand its dialogue with the european union; however, the prospects of such dialogue remain vague, given the up- coming presidential election (with a fully predictable outcome). experts remain skeptical about the capacity of economic reforms, which are expected to start after the presidential election, i. e. in 2016. The political administration has opted for a development strategy built on a package of measures relying on financial support from russia, envisaging further tightening of control in various sectors of public life, as well as regular rotation of officials and schemes to make households ‘share’ their incomes to make up for the lost profits of the industrial giants. Because ‘manual control’ of the Belarusian economy has been revived, experts expect further reductions in the economic competitiveness of the country compared with the economies of its eeu partners. Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2014 were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various think tanks, including the Belarusian institute for strategic studies (Biss), the research Center of the institute for Privatization and Management, the independent institute of socio-economic and Political studies (iisePs), the Belarusian economic research and outreach Center (BEROC), the institute of international relations (Warsaw, Poland), the Center for social and economic research (CASE), eBelarus research Center, the Belarus Security Blog analytical project, the agency for social and Political expert appraisal, and the website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (‘Our opinion’). Valeria Kostyugova Anatoly Pankovsky 9 State authoritieS 10 Belarusian YearBook 2014 11 PrESIDENTIAl Administration: AlwAyS PreparED for Elections AND CrISES! Nikolai Burov Summary The Presidential Administration kept tightening the screws on the public admi nistration system throughout the year 2014. The control over local governments became much tighter mainly through continuous rotation in regional offices and the use of the ongoing anticorruption campaign for this purpose. The Administration has conditioned the environment to hold a seamless presidential election in 2015 thus driving nails in the coffin of the ‘Belarusian Model’ of development amid the economic recession. trends: • Chief decision makers in the Administration were replaced in keeping with the president’s policy towards tightened control

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