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INFR Oct 2019 COMET LP4 SADC Analysis V4 Final

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INFR Oct 2019 COMET LP4 SADC Analysis V4 Final Hertfordshire COMET: 2036 Local Plan Run 4. St Albans District Council Output Analysis FINAL DRAFT Project number: 60588905 October 2019 Hertfordshire COMET: Local Plan Forecasting Report Project number: 60555331 Quality information Prepared by Checked by Approved by CW, PGN, TTS CW SK Revision History Revision Revision date Approved by v1 – Draft for client comment 10 April 2019 In draft V2 – Draft with extra journey time analysis 24 April 2019 In draft V3 – Final with client comments addressed 14 October 2019 CW FINAL DRAFT 2 AECOM Hertfordshire COMET: Local Plan Forecasting Report Project number: 60555331 Prepared for: Hertfordshire County Council Prepared by: AECOM Limited AECOM House 63-77 Victoria Street St Albans Hertfordshire AL1 3ER United Kingdom T: +44(0)1727 535000 aecom.com FINAL DRAFT © 2018 AECOM Limited. All Rights Reserved. This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited (“AECOM”) for sole use of our client (the “Client”) in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AECOM. 3 AECOM Hertfordshire COMET: Local Plan Forecasting Report Project number: 60555331 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 6 1.2 Purpose of this Document ..................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Previous Local Plan COMET Forecasting ............................................................................. 7 1.4 Caveats .................................................................................................................................. 7 1.5 Report Structure .................................................................................................................... 8 2. Town Based Distribution Plots ...................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 St Albans ................................................................................................................................ 9 2.3 Harpenden ............................................................................................................................ 11 2.4 Eastern Hemel Hempstead ................................................................................................. 14 3. 2036 Traffic Conditions in the SADC Area .................................................. 17 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 LP4 Results ......................................................................................................................... 17 3.3 2036 Conditions and comparison to COMET Base Year (2014) and LP3 (2031) ............... 22 4. Journey Time Route Analysis ...................................................................... 27 4.1 Zone to Zone Analysis ......................................................................................................... 27 4.2 Selected Journey Time Route Analysis ............................................................................... 34 4.3 Individual Route Analysis ..................................................................................................... 38 5. Development Flow Analysis ......................................................................... 39 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 39 5.2 East Hemel Hempstead ....................................................................................................... 40 5.3 Hemel Hempstead (north) ................................................................................................... 42 5.4 North of St Albans ................................................................................................................ 43 5.5 West of London Colney ....................................................................................................... 45 5.6 West of Chiswell Green ....................................................................................................... 47 5.7 Park Street Garden Village .................................................................................................. 49 5.8 North East Harpenden ......................................................................................................... 50 6. Scheme Mitigation ........................................................................................ 52 6.2 Ancient Briton and King William IV Junctions ...................................................................... 67 6.3 London Colney Hamburger Roundabout ............................................................................. 68 6.4 Redbourn to Harpenden ...................................................................................................... 70 6.5 M25 Junction 21 and Associated Signals ............................................................................ 71 6.6 St Albans to Hatfield East/West Routes .............................................................................. 72 6.7 St Albans to Hemel Hempstead East West Routes ............................................................. 73 7. Summary and Discussion ............................................................................ 74 7.1 SummaryFINAL ................................................................ DRAFT............................................................. 74 7.2 Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 74 8. Appendices ................................................................................................... 76 8.1 Appendix A: LP4 Schemes within St Albans District ........................................................... 76 8.2 Appendix B: Development Flow Analysis ............................................................................ 79 8.3 Appendix C: Transport Initiatives Within St Albans District ................................................. 80 4 AECOM Hertfordshire COMET: Local Plan Forecasting Report Project number: 60555331 Figures Figure 1: Inbound trips to St Albans Town Centre 2036 AM Peak .......................................................... 9 Figure 2: Outbound trips from St Albans Town Centre 2036 AM Peak ................................................. 10 Figure 3: Inbound trips to St Albans Town Centre 2036 PM Peak ........................................................ 10 Figure 4: Outbound trips from St Albans Town Centre 2036 PM Peak ................................................. 11 Figure 5: Inbound trips to Harpenden Town Centre 2036 AM Peak ..................................................... 12 Figure 6: Outbound trips from Harpenden Town Centre 2036 AM Peak .............................................. 12 Figure 7: Inbound trips to Harpenden Town Centre 2036 PM Peak ..................................................... 13 Figure 8: Outbound trips from Harpenden Town Centre 2036 PM Peak .............................................. 13 Figure 9: Inbound trips to eastern Hemel Hempstead 2036 AM Peak ................................................. 15 Figure 10: Outbound trips from eastern Hemel Hempstead 2036 AM Peak ........................................ 15 Figure 11: Inbound trips to eastern Hemel Hempstead 2036 PM Peak................................................ 16 Figure 12: Outbound trips from eastern Hemel Hempstead 2036 PM Peak ........................................ 16 Figure 13 Map showing congestion and node delay at key junctions in 2036 Local Plan v4 AM Peak 19 Figure 14 Map showing congestion and node delay at key junctions in 2036 Local Plan v4 Inter Peak .............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Figure 15 Map showing congestion and node delay at key junctions in 2036 Local Plan v4 PM Peak 21 Figure 16: Journey time analysis – 2036 LP4 AM peak ........................................................................ 28 Figure 17: Journey time analysis – 2036 LP4 PM Peak ....................................................................... 29 Figure 18: Journey time analysis – 2036 LP4 compared to the 2014 base year- AM peak ................. 30 Figure 19: Journey time analysis – 2036 LP4 compared to the 2014 base year- PM peak ................. 31 Figure 20: Journey time analysis – 2036 LP4 compared to LP3- AM peak .......................................... 32 Figure 21: Journey time analysis – 2036 LP4 compared to LP3- PM peak .......................................... 33 Figure 22: Selected Journey Time Routes ............................................................................................ 35
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