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Fourth Quarter 2006

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Fourth Quarter 2006 1 Fourth Quarter 2006 At a glance From CIRO Dear KBank investors and analysts, KBank Interest rates Deposits (%) Effective Date In 4Q06, the Bank fully complied with the BOT’s new provisioning policy under the International Accounting Savings Vol.2 No.40.75 4 Jul 03 Standard no. 39 (IAS 39). Due to our excess loan loss reserve and stringent internal provisioning policy, the Bank Fixed-3m 3.50-4.25 22 Jan 07 was able to do a one time 100% provision for all NPLs, and did not need to set aside any additional provision to Fixed-6m 3.75-4.50 22 Jan 07 meet the new BOT requirement. Only the regular provision needed to be made in 4Q06, amounting to Bt1,596mn Fixed-12m 3.75-4.50 22 Jan 07 based on the consolidated basis. Fixed-24m 4.25 22 Jan 07 Fixed-36m 4.25 22 Jan 07 For 2007, the Bank’s business targets remain as set at the end of 2006. Loan growth is targeted at 8-13%, with Lending (%) Effective Date the SME segment continuing to be the primary growth driver as we continue to penetrate this untapped and MLR 7.75 1 Aug 06 underserved segment. NIM is likely to be steady around 3.8-3.9%, with the expectation of high yield SME lending MOR 8.00 1 Aug 06 to offset the likelihood of a lower interest rate environment. Fee income is set to grow above 20%. MRR 8.25 1 Aug 06 Max rate MRR+5.00 1 Aug 06 Note: Interest rates above are for domestic retail customers On the expense side, our cost to income ratio is expected to be above 55% due to the ongoing K-Transformation and the Channel Expansion projects. The K-Transformation project is designed to enhance the Bank’s business KBank NPL gross capabilities in this highly competitive environment. Average regular provision will amount to Bt1.35bn per quarter Bank Consol at the bank only level. The Bank will also continue to focus on asset quality and managing NPLs at a lower level. Bt bn % Bt bn % Gross NPL is expected to fall to around 5% by the end of 2007. 4Q05 44.4 7.08 56.2 8.88 1Q06 42.9 6.89 54.8 8.73 We hope you find the information provided in this publication useful and interesting. Your suggestions and 2Q06 42.5 6.70 54.0 8.45 comments are always welcome. 3Q06 42.5 6.52 53.3 8.11 4Q06* 38.3 5.67 46.5 6.84 Best regards, Note: * In 4Q06, KBank NPL net stood at 3.17% on the Bank Only basis, and Adit Laixuthai, Ph.D. 4.13% on the consolidated basis in accordance with the new BOT regulation. NPL net is NPL after allowance for doubtful account of NPL. First Senior Vice President & Chief Investor Relations Officer Corporate Secretariat Division Industry (14 Thai banks) Dec-06 (Bt bn) Chg(%) Bank-only YoY MoM Net Loans 4,899 6.25 0.53 Assets 7,487 7.18 -1.57 Deposits 5,932 6.19 -2.54 Equity 665.4 NPL gross 424.7 NPL gross% 8.07 NPL net 229.3 NPL net % 4.52 LDR (%) 82.59 Source: Bank of Thailand and KBank KBank Price Performance Close 23/01/07 SET Index 650.76 Bank Sector Index 243.13 KBANK (L) 58.5 KBank IR Consensus Survey 3 Months -17.02 The Investor Relations Unit has conducted the 4Q06 consensus survey among analysts to document their 6 Months -3.31 1 Year -13.33 opinions, recommendations and earnings estimates for KASIKORNBANK PCL (KBank), and to get their general KBANK (F) 60.0 views on the Thai banking industry. Both telephone interviews and research reports provided the sources of 3 Months -18.92 information for our consensus survey, conducted Jan 11–15, 2007. The total number of analysts that currently 6 Months -2.44 cover KBank shares is 43 from 41 securities brokerage companies, both local and foreign. 39 analysts (91%) 1 Year -14.29 responded to this survey. The result is shown below. KBank Mkt. Cap. (Bt bn) 141 Note: Outstanding shares = 2,386,608,125 as of Jan 11, 2007. 4Q06 Earnings Forecasts Source: KBank % KBank Price Performance (4Q06) 18 16 Mn shares Bt/shr 100 .0 80 14 12 80.0 70 10 60.0 8 60 6 40.0 4 20.0 50 2 - - 40 2,000-2,300 2,301-2,600 2,601-2,900 2,901-3,200 3,201-3,500 3,501-3,800 % Bt mn 1 Oct 06 23 Jan 07 Volume (L) Volume (F) KBANK (L) KBANK (F) N=39 Mean = 2,831 Std. Dev. = 366 Source: Bloomberg Note: KBank’s 4Q06 actual profit was Bt3,429mn. 1 2 KBank Financial Summary (Consolidated) 4Q06 Balance Sheet 4Q06 3Q06 QoQ 4Q05 YoY Performance (%) 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 (Bt mn) (Bt mn) %Chg (Bt mn) %Chg ROA 1.27 1.67 1.63 1.40 1.49 ROE 13.83 18.07 17.25 14.69 15.83 Cash 17,857 14,646 21.9 14,913 19.7 Interest spread 3.99 3.96 4.10 3.89 3.84 Interbank & Money Market Items 82,842 82,356 0.6 65,929 25.7 NIM 4.08 4.07 4.26 4.07 4.05 Sec under resale agreement 22,200 30,560 (27.4) 9,500 133.7 Cost-to-Income Ratio 55.72 47.41 49.07 52.04 60.43 Investments -net 101,987 101,305 0.7 99,565 2.4 Note: ROA, ROE and NIM are calculated using QoQ averages of total assets, total Loans & AIR 679,573 655,981 3.6 628,692 8.1 shareholders’ equities and total earning assets, respectively, as denominators. Total Reserves 32,993 36,263 (9.0) 37,439 (11.9) Loans & AIR - net 646,580 619,718 4.3 591,253 9.4 Properties foreclosed - net 16,496 16,769 (1.6) 17,463 (5.5) Asset Quality & Premises & equipment 22,301 22,087 1.0 21,441 4.0 CAR (%) 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 Other assets 25,247 21,018 20.1 17,247 46.4 Asset Quality (%) Total Assets 935,509 908,459 3.0 837,309 11.7 Total reserve / Loans 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 4.9 Deposits 750,985 730,209 2.8 690,337 8.8 Total reserve / NPL gross 66.6 67.5 66.8 68.0 71.0 Interbank & Money Market items 24,479 25,494 (4.0) 23,597 3.7 CAR (%) Borrowings 45,793 47,216 (3.0) 26,986 69.7 Tier I 9.53 9.94 10.47 11.17 10.45 Other liabilities 26,013 20,495 26.9 18,273 42.4 Tier II 4.93 5.12 5.03 4.92 4.29 Total Liabilities 847,270 823,414 2.9 759,193 11.6 CAR 14.47 15.07 15.51 16.09 14.74 Fully paid-up share capital 23,821 23,819 0.0 23,733 0.4 ∗ If 2H06 net profits were included, the tier-1 and total capital funds would be 11.41%, Premium on share capital 17,904 17,900 0.0 17,737 0.9 15.70% respectively. Premium on expired warrants Appraisal surplus 9,883 9,918 (0.4) 10,024 (1.4) Revaluation surplus on investments (157) 84 (286.8) (529) 70.4 Legal reserve 2,160 1,470 46.9 1,470 46.9 Deposit Structure (%) 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 Other reserves - - - Current 5.75 5.82 5.59 5.19 5.53 Retained earnings (deficit) 34,627 31,853 8.7 25,679 34.8 Savings 56.50 52.38 49.34 44.11 45.99 Total Shareholders' Equity 88,238 85,044 3.8 78,116 13.0 Term-Less than 6 months 27.55 28.57 26.55 24.02 23.51 Liab & Shareholders' Equity 935,509 908,459 3.0 837,309 11.7 Term-6 months - 1 year 2.52 5.70 10.54 16.48 14.17 Term-1 year - over 1 year 7.68 7.53 7.98 10.19 10.80 Income Statement 4Q06 3Q06 QoQ 4Q05 YoY Total 100 100 100 100 100 (Bt mn) (Bt mn) %Chg (Bt mn) %Chg Interest & dividend income 14,504 13,144 10.3 10,363 40.0 Interest expenses 5,614 4,632 21.2 2,160 159.9 AMC Progress (%) 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 Net income from interest & dividend 8,889 8,513 4.4 8,202 8.4 PhethaiAMC (Principal balance: Bt74bn) Non-interest income 3,956 3,740 5.8 3,392 16.6 Portfolio Resolved (%) 79 82 83 85 87 Non-interest expenses 7,762 6,377 21.7 6,461 20.1 Recovery Rate (%) * 52 51 51 50 50 Pre-provision profit 5,083 5,876 (13.5) 5,134 (1.0) * Recovery rate = Present value of future cash flow Provision expenses (reversal) 1,596 1,458 9.5 1,468 8.7 Principal balance Income before income tax 3,487 4,418 (21.1) 3,665 (4.9) Income tax expense 59 1,343 (95.6) 993 (94.1) Net income 3,429 3,076 11.5 2,660 28.9 EPS 1.44 1.29 11.5 1.12 28.4 4Q06 Performance: Interest income went up by a Non-Interest Income 4Q06 3Q06 QoQ 4Q05 YoY larger extent than interest expenses.
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