Daily Market Outlook 19 Jun 2015
Up on policy hopes
Expect the SET to adjust up today, with local uncertainties Major Indices Close Chg %Chg overridden by global optimism. Locally, uncertainties regarding SET 1,508.04 -6.8 -0.4 MERS and ICAO on the tourism industry weigh on the bourse. SET50 991.03 -5.8 -0.6 Globally, dovish interpretations of the Fed-policy forecasts and SET P/E (x) 20.2 strong US data provide a powerful one-two for equities, while SET P/BV (x) 2.1 SET Div. Yield (%) 2.9 hopes of a positive outcome from an emergency meeting on Dow Jones 18,115.84 +180.1 +1.0 Greece Monday also provide support for the SET. S&P 500 2,121.24 +20.8 +1.0 NASDAQ 5,132.95 +68.1 +1.3 Pick of the day: MINT (Bt30; NR; 15TP Bloomberg Bt35.79) UK 6,707.88 +27.3 +0.4 MINT should be among the biggest beneficiaries of the Germany 11,100.30 +122.3 +1.1 continued growth in global tourism this year and recovery in France 4,803.48 +12.9 +0.3 Thailand’s tourism industry after last year’s political instability. Japan 19,990.82 -228.5 -1.1 The United Nation’s World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) South Korea 2,041.88 +7.0 +0.3 forecasts strong global tourism growth of 4.0% this year, Hong Kong 26,694.66 -59.1 -0.2 China 4,786.17 -181.7 -3.7 particularly in the US and Asia Pacific. As MINT has Taiwan 9,218.37 +28.5 +0.3 considerable presence in 22 countries for its hotels and resorts Singapore 3,300.42 -25.5 -0.8 as well as food chains in Asia Pacific, it is in a strong position Malaysia 1,718.12 -8.7 -0.5 to capitalize on this trend. In 2015, MINT’s earnings should be Indonesia 4,945.50 -0.3 -0.0 solid thanks to strong demand recovery for hotels, especially Philippines 7,606.86 +70.6 +0.9 in Bangkok, and additional 2,151 rooms in 1Q15, mostly from Trading Summary Buy Sell Net M&A. The company also plans to increase its number of food Institution 4,743 6,678 -1,935 Proprietary 4,069 4,187 -119 & beverage outlets by 8-10% YoY this year which should help Foreign 10,881 10,343 538 total food sales (TSS) to grow by 10% while same store sales Individuals 20,933 19,417 1,515 should also improve from better consumer sentiment. Total Trading Value 40,625 Btmn According to Bloomberg earnings consensus, MINT’s earnings Most Active Value Value Close %Chg growth this year is expected to be a robust 25.5%, decelerating AOT 3,909 307.00 -3.2 to 17.8% in 2016. MINT’s price pattern suggests that the PTT 1,471 355.00 - KBANK shares are currently in a consolidation period. A daily buy 1,414 200.00 0.5 JAS 1,385 6.10 -0.8 signal will occur when the share price breaks Bt30.50 after IRPC 1,091 4.12 -3.7 which an important target is Bt31.75. (Resistance: 30.50, Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg 31.00, 31.50; Support: 29.75, 29.25, 28.75) US Crude 60.45 +0.5 +0.9 Brent Crude 64.26 +0.4 +0.6 Local issues Gold 1202.00 +25.2 +2.1 Pridiyathorn says economy will pick up soon. MR FX Rates Close Chg %Chg USD/THB 33.63 +0.0 +0.1 Pridiyathorn Devakula has remarked that the Thai economy EUR/USD 1.14 +0.0 +0.2 should pick up pace from September following a one-year USD/JPY 122.95 -0.5 -0.4 downward correction. Such a correction, he added was USD/CNY 6.21 -0.0 -0.0 Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg necessary following the previous government’s policies which distorted the market and was bad for sustainable Technical picks (support & resistance) growth – such as the first-time car buyer scheme. (Bangkok MAJOR (S: 31.25, R: 35.50); BH (S: 181.00, R: 199.50); Post) LH (S: 9.05, R: 9.45); SET (S: 1,492, R: 1,527) Fears of red flag fall-out. Thai officials and airline executives said the red flag imposed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on Thailand’s aviation safety supervision could result in more countries putting
flights operated by Thai-registered airlines to their airports
under closer scrutiny or even curb them. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has informed Thai Thailand Research Department authorities it will make an announcement on the issue next Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041 Thursday. (Bangkok Post) Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090 Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094
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Daily Market Outlook 19 Jun 2015
Thailand could be hub for GMS investment, says NZ. The New Zealand ambassador said yesterday Thailand could become an investment hub of the Greater Mekong Sub-region after AEC comes to fruition this year. This would depend on factors such as economic growth and infrastructure development, however, the ambassador added. The New Zealand government also aims to discuss trade agreements with Thailand further. (The Nation) The disposable-water level at nine dams has dropped below 10% of their capacity, reflecting the severity of the drought in Thailand. As of yesterday, drought had already hit 23 provinces. Authorities have asked farmers in the Chao Phraya Basin to postpone growing rice till late July. The Bhumibol Dam, for example, had just 363mn cubic metres of water on Tuesday, or 3% of its capacity. The Sirikit Dam had just 697mn cubic metres of water, 7% of its capacity. Both are major dams in Thailand. (The Nation) First MERS case in Thailand. The Public Health Ministry said yesterday a 75-year-old man from Oman has tested positive for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and has now been quarantined. Authorities are also monitoring 59 people suspected of coming into contact with the patient during and after his journey to Thailand. Meanwhile THAI has set out seven strict measures to deal with the Mers virus, including disinfecting cabins and monitoring staff hygiene. (Bangkok Post) DTAC appeals against the Central Administrative Court injunctive relief order which prohibits it from installing 2.1GHz equipment under the license scheme to its towers under the concession agreement with CAT. DTAC claimed that this prohibition was against the law principle that encourages infrastructure sharing for the sake of overall telecom efficiency and environment. (The Nation)
Global issues Euro zone leaders will hold an emergency summit on Monday to try to avert a Greek default, after bank withdrawals accelerated and government revenue slumped as Athens and its international creditors remained deadlocked over a debt deal. Finance ministers of the 19-nation currency bloc failed to make any breakthrough at the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg on Thursday, just 12 days before Greece must make a crucial debt repayment to the IMF. The ECB told the meeting of euro zone finance ministers it was not sure if Greek banks would be able to open on Monday. (Reuters)
USA Wall Street shares finished sharply higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq making a new intraday all-time high since the dot-com era, bolstered by a series of strong economic data and a report of possible concessions made to Greece by its international creditors, which was later denied by EU. (Reuters) US consumer prices in May recorded their largest increase in more than two years as gasoline prices surged, suggesting the drag on inflation from lower oil prices was fading. The CPI rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in April. That was the largest increase since February 2013, and left the CPI unchanged in the 12 months through May after a 0.2% yearly decline in April. (Reuters) The US jobless claims fell to a near 15-year low last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ended 13 Jun. It was the 15th straight week that claims held below 300,000, a threshold usually associated with a firming labor market. (Reuters)
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Daily Market Outlook 19 Jun 2015
Factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated to a six-month high in June. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showing its business activity index jumped to a reading of 15.2 in June, the highest level since December, from 6.7 in May. (Reuters) The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.7% in May after a similar gain in April. (Reuters)
Europe European stock markets recovered ground on Thursday boosted by a rise in mining shares although the Athens bourse touched 3-year lows on mounting worries over Greece's debt crisis. (Reuters)
Asia One-third of Japanese firms say their profit plans for this business year would be hurt at current yen levels of around 120 to 125 to the dollar, and that increases to a majority of companies if the currency weakens further to 130. Concerns have grown that a further rapid depreciation in the yen could damage even an export-reliant economy like Japan, as import costs have spiked. Those include raw materials and fuel. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda last week put a floor under the yen by saying it was unlikely to fall further because it was already very weak. (Reuters) Weak semiconductor orders: Data from Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan released on Wednesday shows the sector's closely watched book-to-bill ratio dropped to 0.93 in May, down from 0.96 in April. The ratio has stayed below 1.00 mark which separates growth from slowdown in bookings for three months in a row, and compares with a high of 1.33 in November. (Reuters) Hong Kong's legislature on Thursday vetoed a China-backed electoral reform package criticized by opposition pro-democracy activists as undemocratic, temporarily easing the prospect of mass protests. The rejection will likely appease some activists who had demanded a veto of what they call a "fake" democratic model for how the Chinese-controlled territory chooses its next leader in 2017. (Reuters)
Commodities Gold up on dovish Fed. Gold spot jumped up US$15.87 or 1.34% US$1,200.92/ounce, the biggest jump in almost one month, on the back of a softening dollar which followed signals from the Fed that it may raise rates slower than the market anticipated. (Reuters) Oil up as dollar and stock fall. Oil adjusted up thanks to a softening dollar, and also reports indicating a drop in crude stock in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX futures. NYMEX adjusted up by 53 cents to close at US$60.45/barrel, while Brent adjusted up 39 cents to US$64.26/barrel. (Reuters)
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Daily Market Outlook 19 Jun 2015
Date Regions Economic Indicators 15-Jun-15 EU ECB President Draghi's Speech European Court of Justice Ruling 16-Jun-15 EU 17-Jun-15 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement 17-Jun-15 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 18-Jun-15 EU Targeted LTRO 18-Jun-15 US Consumer Price Index (May) 19-Jun-15 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Jun-15 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
1 2 3 4 5 XD XD XD XD IMPACT BTSGIF CTARAF TR KPNPF MJLF
8 9 10 11 12
15 16 17 18 19 XD XD LHK WHAPF
22 23 24 25 26
29 30
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CG Rating
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2014.
BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOP BCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALI BTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCO CPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB
AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOG ACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRC ADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUE ANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTE AOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTH ASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTA ASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTW ASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVO BANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UAC BAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGI BBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNT BECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL
2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICO AF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSC AH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCL AHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUF AIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVD AJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFP AKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMI AKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UP AMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPF AMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOIC AMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UT AP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UV APCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWC APCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIH AQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVE ARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHA AS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WIN ASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNER AYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD) Corporate Governance Report disclaimer Score Range Number of Logo Description The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant 90 – 100 Excellent to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed 80 – 89 Very Good on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a 70 – 79 Good general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on 60 – 69 Satisfactory inside information.
50 – 59 Pass The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey Below 50 No logo given N/A result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
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Contact
Branch Address Phone Fax
540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini, 02-680-5000 02-680-5111 Head Office Pathumwan Bangkok 10330
191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd., 02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1 Silom Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand
159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21 02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328 Asok Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110
7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr., 02-884-7333 02-884-7357, Pinklao Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin, 02-884-7367 Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700
Chaengwattana 99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd 02-119-2300 02-8353006 Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
Chaengwattana 2 9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr., 02-119-2388 02-119-2399 Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad 02-106-7345 02-105-2070 Mega Bangna Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540
356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang 038-808200 038-807200 Rayong District, Rayong Province 21000
26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen 043-334-700 043-334-799 Khonkaen 40000
55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi 038-053-858 038-784-090 Chonburi 20000
233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub- 038-981-587 038-981-591 Chaseongsao District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000
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