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Dedicated to Change for a Better Thailand

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Dedicated to Change for a Better Thailand Dedicated to change for a better Thailand Core Purpose To provide a stable financial environment in order to support sustainable economic growth, resulting in the continous improvement of the standards of living of the people of Thailand Vision A reputable organization commanding public trust and re- spect Values Open Communication Teamwork Efficiency and Economy Accountability Competence Honesty, Fairness and Integrity ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT 2004 www.bot.or.th CONTENTS Summary Report Economic Performance in 2004 1 Economic Conditions in 2004 Agricultural Sector 7 Manufacturing Sector 13 Services 16 Tourism and Hotel Industry 16 Real Estate 19 Trade 22 Telecommunications 23 Private Consumption 25 Private Investment 28 Labour Market Conditions 32 Price Level 35 External Sector 37 World Economy 37 International Trade and the Balance of Payments 38 External Debt 44 Fiscal Conditions 45 Fiscal Position 46 Public Debt 49 Monetary Conditions and the Exchange Rate 51 Monetary Base and Money Supply 51 Exchange Rate, Interest Rates, and Government Bond Yields 52 Commercial Bank Deposits and Private Credits 55 Business Performance of Commercial Banks 58 Capital Market 59 TheImportant Bank of Policies Thailand’s and Measures activities Monetary Measures 63 Interest Rate Policy 63 Money Market Measures 64 Foreign Exchange Control 65 Payment Measures 65 Credit Measures 66 Supervision and Financial Institutions Development Measures 66 Financial Assistance to Priority Economic Sectors 75 Fiscal Measures 77 Tax Measures 77 Expenditure Measures 80 State Enterprise Measures 82 Local Government Measures 83 Other Measures 84 Others Measures 86 Agricultural Measures 86 International Trade Measures 88 Industrial Measures 90 Price Measures 92 Labour Measures 92 Service Measures 94 Capital Market Measures 96 The Bank of Thailandûs activities Reserve Management Performance and Note Printing 101 Reserve Management and Operations 101 Banknote Issue and Management 101 Currency Reserve 102 Note Printing Works 102 Banking Business 103 Cash Management 103 Centre of Funds Transfer 103 Banker to the Government 109 Banker to Commercial Banks and Financial Institutions 109 Acting as Agent of the Government 113 Exchange Control 113 Foreign Exchange Transactions and Net Foreign Exchange Positions of Authorized Financial Institutions International Banking Facilities (IBFs), Authorized Money Changers, Money Transfer Agents and Currency Exchange Services 114 Public Debt Management 119 Financial Institutions Supervision Policies 121 Financial Institutions Supervision 128 BOTûs participation in International Organizations 132 Association of Southeast Asian Nations - ASEAN 132 Bank for International Settlements - BIS 132 The Executivesû Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Bank - EMEAP 133 International Monetary Fund - IMF 133 South - East Asian Central Banksû - SEACEN 134 Corporate Debt Restructuring 135 Information Technology Development 138 Bank of Thailand Regional Offices 141 Northern Region Office 141 Southern Region Office 143 Northeastern Region Office 145 Strategic Planning 148 Risk Management 149 The Report of the Chairman of the Audit Committee The Report of the Chairman of the Audit Committee 155 Report of the Auditors and Bank of Thailand Financial Statements for the Years 2004 and 2003 Report of the Auditors 159 Balance Sheet 160 Profit and Loss Account 162 Statement of Changes in Capital 163 Statement of Cash Flows 164 Notes to Financial Statements 166 Management and Personnel Work System, Work Processes and Organization Structure 177 Workforce Status and Distribution 178 Human Resource Management 178 Court of Directors 180 Executives of the Bank of Thailand 181 Bank of Thailandûs Organization Chart 186 SUMMARY REPORT 11 Economic Performance in 2004 The Thai Economy grew by 6.1 percent in 2004, decelerating slightly from 6.9 percent growth in 2003, due to the slowdown in domestic demand especially in private consumption and private investment. External demand remained satisfactory with export value attaining record levels. The engines of growth in 2004 proved to be private investment and exports. The Private Investment Indicator expanded by 12.8 percent, decelerating from 13.6 percent growth in the previous year. Exports, on the other hand, grew by 23.0 percent, up from 18.2 percent in the previous year. The Private Consumption Index grew by 3.7 percent in 2004, moderating from 5.4 percent in the previous year. This is partly contributable to the fulfillment of the pent-up demand for household durables and the continued weakening in consumer confidence since the beginning of the year. Risk factors comprised high world oil prices, the unrest in the three southernmost provinces, and the outbreak of avian flu in poultry. Government expenditure grew by 17.8 percent in Fiscal Year 2004, accelerating in terms of both current expenditure and investment. Government revenue expanded by 17.1 percent in FY2004, commensurate with continued economic expansion and strong corporate profits. As a result, the government registered a cash surplus in the amount of B17.2 billion. The deceleration in domestic demand resulted in the slowdown of domestic supply. The Manufacturing Production Index grew by 8.1 percent in 2004, decelerating from 12.3 percent growth in the previous year in tandem with the decrease in the production of food and beverage for domestic consumption and export goods such as block rubber, and integrated circuits. As for the agricultural sector, drought reduced output growth of main crops from 10.5 percent in the previous year to 1.2 percent. Nevertheless, crop prices remained at a high level especially the prices of jasmine rice and rubber. As a consequence, farm income still expanding well at 15.4 percent. As for the services sector, the number of foreign tourists grew by 16.5 percent in 2004 despite the adverse impact of (1) the outbreak of avian flu in poultry in the first quarter and (2) the unrest in the three southernmost provinces from the second quarter onwards. Despite these unfavorable events, the year-on-year growth in the number of foreign tourists in 2004 proved to be satisfactory owing to the low-base effect from the sharp fall in the number of foreign tourists in 2003 given concerns over the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Furthermore, the economic impact of the natural disaster that beset the six provinces on the Andaman coast during the last week of the year did not affect overall economic growth in 2004. 2 The expansion of the manufacturing sector, the construction sector, and the service sector is consistent with the expansion of private investment. Together, they led to a 6.0 percent rise in non-agricultural employment. This observed increase was partly due to the migration of labor away from the agricultural sector following the drought. For 2004, agricultural employment declined by 2.3 percent. Short-term interest rates in the money market rose in tandem with the three-time upwards adjustment of the Bank of Thailandûs policy rate during the latter half of the year. Nevertheless, liquidity in the financial sector remained high and, as a result, the interest rates on the loans and deposits of large commercial banks remained unchanged from the previous year. Meanwhile, commercial bank credit to both the corporate and household sectors expanded favorably. The baht strengthened over the course of the year and averaged at 40.28 baht per US dollar, appreciating by 3.0 percent from the previous year average despite the baht being adversely affected by the outbreak of avian flu. The baht appreciation was contributable to the following factors: (1) the appreciation of regional currencies due to diminished confidence in the US dollar given rising concerns over the US current account and fiscal deficits, (2) the upwards adjustment of the Bank of Thailandûs policy rate in August, October, and December, (3) the rise in foreign investment into the Thai stock market and (4) rumours of an adjustment in the value of the Chinese renminbi. Overall economic stability remained satisfactory with headline inflation in 2004 averaging only 2.7 percent, accelerating from 1.8 percent in the previous year in line with the rise in the prices of raw food and energy. Core inflation averaged 0.4 percent, compared with 0.2 percent in the previous year. The unemployment rate remained low at 2.1 percent. Public debt also remained low at 47.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)1/. As for external stability, the current account continued to be in a surplus in terms of both the trade balance and the services and transfers balance. External debt declined over the course of the year. At end-2004, the foreign reserves position was strong at US$49.8 billion or roughly four times that of short-term foreign debt. Outlook for 2005 The Thai economy in 2005 is expected to continue its growth trend but at a more decelerated pace as compared to the previous year. This is in line with the expected moderation in external demand, private consumption, and private investment. Private and public investment will prove to be key drivers of growth. 1/ as of end of November 2004, Public Debt Management Office 3 As for export of services, the adverse impact of the natural disaster in the six provinces along the Andaman coast on tourism is expected to be mostly felt in the first quarter of 2005. And the impact will subsequently lessen in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the export of goods - after having expanded considerably in 2004 - is likely to decelerate in line with the global economy especially with respect to electronics goods such as integrated circuits which will decelerate following the downwards IT cycle in the global market. Imports, however, will accelerate in tandem with the rise in overall investment. Regarding risks to growth in the coming period, external risks include (1) the slowdown in the global economy especially with regards to China and key industrialized economies, (2) the upwards adjustment of interest rates in foreign markets, (3) the US current account and fiscal deficits.
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