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ASIA MONTHLY REPORT November 2015, No.176

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ASIA MONTHLY REPORT November 2015, No.176 ASIA MONTHLY November 2015 Topics Thailand’s Prayut administration’s economic stimuli and mid-term growth strategies ···· 1 Taiwan ·············································································································· 3 Philippines ········································································································ 4 China ················································································································ 5 http://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/asia/ ASIA MONTHLY REPORT November 2015, No.176 Topics Thailand’s Prayut administration’s economic stimuli and mid-term growth strategies The Prayut administration conducted a cabinet reshuffle in August, 2015, immediately after which a series of economic stimuli, focused on support measures for farming communities and small and medium sized enterprises, and measures to attract foreign businesses, was announced. Furthermore the government has embarked upon the development of mid-term growth strategies. ■ Large scale economic stimulus measures announced Thailand’s real GDP growth rate in the April to June quarter, 2015, was 2.8% compared to the same period in the previous year, due to poor growth in private consumption and stagnating agricultural produce prices against a backdrop of drought conditions and increased household ＜Consumer Confidence Index＞ debt, as well as failing export growth in 130 120 response to the slowing of the Chinese Present economy. This performance represented a Good/Will be 110 Future Good slight deceleration in pace from the 3.0% posted for the January to March quarter. In 100 Bad/Will be response, NESDB (National Economic and 90 Bad Social Development Board) revised its real GDP growth rate forecast for 2015 80 downwards from between 3.0% to 4.0% to 70 between 2.7% to 3.2%. 60 Since the start of 2015, consumer confidence indices have been on the way 50 2010 11 12 13 14 15 down, and exports have consistently posted （Y/M） negative year on year growth. Under these Source: CEIC circumstances, the provisional government ＜Export＞ （Million USD） of Prayut Chan-o-cha held a cabinet （YoY） （％） reshuffle on August 19, in which Economic 25,000 30 Value（L） YoY（R） Minister and Deputy Prime Minister 25 Pridiyathorn Devakula swapped posts with 20,000 20 Somkid Jatusripitak, an economic adviser 15 to the National Council for Peace and Order 15,000 (NCPO), and work began on the planning 10 of economic stimulus measures. Somkid 10,000 was formerly an advisor to the Thaskin 5 administration in its early days and was 0 involved in leading the Thai economy to 5,000 recovery when it fell into stagnation in the -5 wake of the currency crisis, and his ability 0 -10 in that respect has attracted much attention. 2012 13 14 15 （Y/M） At the start of September, two economic Source: Bank of Thailand stimulus measures were announced. The first, aimed at providing support for farming villages and other communities, included interest free loans through the Village Funds, budget grants at tambon (local government) level, and investments in new and existing small scale public works projects., with a total Bt136 billion investment (ratified by the Cabinet on September 1). The second, aimed at supporting small and medium sized enterprises, set new low interest financing (Bt100 billion) and credit guarantee (Bt100 billion) limits, establishing a new enterprise fund (Bt6 billion), and introducing corporate income tax exemptions (ratified by the Cabinet on September 8). Further, with the aim of encouraging efforts to attract foreign businesses, the intention was announced to extend the maximum period of corporate income tax exemptions on prime projects in high tech industries and contribute to R&D activities from the current eight years to 13 years. Furthermore it is envisaged that there will be additional corporate tax incentive measures for projects that have realized The Japan Research Institute, Limited 1 Economics Department ASIA MONTHLY REPORT November 2015, No.176 investment at an early stage, as well as projects for the special economic zones (SEZ). Additionally, the government has begun work on the fostering of area specific clusters of industries such as automobiles, electronic and electrical equipment, environment related industries, digital related industries, food processing, textiles and garments. In this way, these policies of attempting to raise the domestic economy through providing finance (not subsidies) for the activities of agricultural communities and small and medium sized enterprises, while at the same time trying to enhance the country’s international competitiveness by selectively offering preferential treatment to foreign investors, are reminiscent of the dual track policies of the Thaksin era. They are the result of the Prayut government’s emphasis on restoring the country’s stagnating economy, and indicate the sense of realism of the administration. ■ Work starts on mid-term development strategies e In addition, the Prayut administration has begun work on its own, unique set of development strategies with a mid-term focus. The targets are to maintain an annual real GDP growth rate of between 3.3% and 4.3%, year on year, until 2030, and to become a “high income country”, as defined by World Bank, by 2026. The government has embarked upon the development of its “13th Five-Year National Economic and Social Development Plan”, which will become the basic platform for the realization of these goals. Further, the plan also calls for year on year growth targets of 4% or more for exports, 7.5% for private sector investment, and 10.0% for public sector investment. Among the initiatives are the establishment of special economic zones along Thailand’s borders with Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, the development of the country’s domestic transportation infrastructure, and the development of Thailand as an Indochinese transportation hub. To those ends, the approximately Bt2 trillion (approx. 7 trillion yen) transportation infrastructure development project that had been shelved for many years has now been started. Whereas the Yingluck administration had been negatively disposed towards borrowing from overseas, the current administration is due to go ahead with the Bangkok – Chiang Mai high speed rail link with Japanese assistance, and the Bangkok - Nong Khai high speed rail link with Chinese assistance. Further, the strategy not only covers growth strategy, but aggressively targets the correction of income disparity, which is seen as a remote cause of political instability. For example, a National Savings Fund, for which the legal framework was established under the Abhisit administration but the implementation was postponed under the Yingluck administration, has been started up. The Fund is essentially a pension system for the self-employed and farmers, who were outside the framework of the social security system, and its introduction will, to an extent, complete a pension system that is inclusive of all of the populace. The implementation of an inheritance tax also, debated for many years, has already been adopted by the National Reform Council (NRC), and is expected to be enforced from January, 2016. On September 16, 2015, the proposed new constitution was rejected by the National Reform Council. As a result, the schedule for the transition to civilian government will need to start again from the installation of the Constitution Drafting Committee. According to Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, the drafting of the new constitution will take six months, with a further four months for the preparation and implementation of a national referendum, six months for the establishment of related constitutional laws and another four months to prepare and implement a general election. Based on these figures, the establishment of a new government following a general election will not happen until after mid-2017. In other words, the Prayut junta, established in August, 2014, will in effect be responsible for economic and social management of the country for about three years. Amid the political instability that has plagued Thailand since 2006, when the Thaksin administration was toppled by a military coup d’état, economic stimulus measures had the character very much of doling out financial assistance, due to the use of subsidies, and large scale infrastructure development projects, though they were needed, continued to be postponed. The irony is that, under the provisional government of Prayut Chan-o-cha, a diverse range of policies and plans has begun to be put into action. This perhaps needs to be seen as an example of traditional Thai statecraft, where the policies of realism take priority over those of principle in times of crisis. In any case, Japanese companies wishing to develop businesses in Thailand will not only need to be aware of political issues such as the delay in the transition to civilian government, but will also need to pay attention to those policies announced in the future, and be ready take advantage of business opportunities that may present themselves. (Keiichiro Oizumi) The Japan Research Institute, Limited 2 Economics Department ASIA MONTHLY REPORT November 2015, No.176 Taiwan Export growth continues to be sluggish ■ Export stagnation hinders economic growth Taiwan’s September export growth (customs cleared) ＜Exports by Item(YoY)＞ Petroleum Products<6.2> was -14.6%, compared to the same period in the previous （％） Plastic and Articles made of Plastic<6.8> year, marking eight consecutive
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