September-October 2019 Advanced Public Forum Brief

NSDA Advanced PF Brief September/October 2019

PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED PUBLIC FORUM BRIEF

Resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative.

This topic brief was written by Jesse Meyer. Jesse is a diamond coach, recipient of the Donald Crabtree Service Award, the state of Iowa’s 2015 Coach of the Year, and board member of the Iowa Forensics League. He can be reached at [email protected].

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Table of Contents 3

September-October 2019 Advanced Public Forum Brief

NSDA Advanced PF Brief September/October 2019...... 1 Resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative...... 2 Table of Contents...... 3 Introduction ...... 4 Framework and Definitions...... 6 Social/Political...... 8 Environment...... 9 Human Rights...... 13 European Collation/Unity ...... 20 Economic ...... 26 Debt Traps...... 27 European Economic Growth...... 32 Chinese Economic Growth...... 39 5G Technology ...... 45 International Relations...... 51 XI Power ...... 52 SCS/ECS...... 58 India/Pakistan Conflict...... 65 US/EU Relations...... 70 Conclusion...... 75 Pro Argument At-A-Glance ...... 76 Con Argument At-A-Glance...... 77

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Introduction 4

Introduction

The resolution for September/October 2019 is Resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative. This topic was covered in more fine detail in the NSDA’s primary topic analysis packet, so I won’t go too deep into the background of the topic, but I will give a glancing overview to set the stage to discuss the arguments over which the topic is centered around and how students are debating these. The concept of the Belt and Road, otherwise known as the BRI or the Second Silk Road stems from economic land routes that connected the regions in East Asia in the area that would become mainland China to the Western regions of Europe. This route was active from the second century until the 18th century. This route allowed for the trade of spices, silks, and manufactured goods from East Asia to transit to nations in the West. The Western nations, in return, sent farm crops unknown to East Asia back. More importantly, this route became an important path for cultural exchanges. As caravans moved back and forth, traders would make stops to rest and resupply. The influence of Eastern and Western culture was transferred inland to areas in Russia, India, Pakistan, the Middle East, and more. During the 18th century and the political restructuring of China, the colonial settlements along the Eastern coast of China by the European and American powers, and the advent of the industrial revolution in Europe and America, the Silk Road collapsed. In 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled a new initiative while touring central Asia. At the time, China had been recognized as one of the biggest and fastest growing economies in the world. At the tame time, the rest of the world was still recovering from the great recession of 2008 and was looking for economic stimulus. Furthermore, Xi was facing criticism at home for what his opponents in the state communist party saw as a lackluster foreign policy. Xi was looking for a way to strengthen China and expand its influence. The plan that was unveiled was known as the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Today, this is what we would call the BRI or the New Silk Road. His plan was twofold. China would create an overland trade route from China to Europe while also creating a maritime water trade route with the rest of the world. The overland route would include a new system of rail transport systems, highways, and airports. The water routes would mean the construction of ports and harbors. Nations that would agree to become part of this project would be granted huge loans from the Chinese government and the Chinese government would provide labor to facilitate the construction of these projects. Once these projects were complete, multilateral trade could flow across these routes. New markets could be opened; and at the center of this would be China. Now, we are in the year 2019. Since his announcement seven years ago, 152 countries have signed onto the BRI. One group of nations that has resisted joining en mass are the

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member states of the European Union. So far, only 18 have signed on with some of the biggest economies still resisting. In this brief, we will break down the arguments for and against the European Union joining into three areas: Social, Economic, and International Relations. From there, we will look at the major arguments that I believe fall under these headings. We will discuss the argument and what it means, we will look at how it is debated on both the pro and the con with sample cards for each side, and I will conclude with a bibliography for further and more in depth reading.

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Framework and Definitions 6

Framework and Definitions

When we look at the framework debate, the first issue that must be addressed is to which national view do we look at this topic? What I mean by this is: do we used a European view, a Chinese view, or an American view when evaluating impacts? The resolution does specify that the EU will be the one doing the joining, but their actions will have far reaching consequences, both positive and negative on the international community. The central focus of the debate should still be on the EU and whether they join or not, but I believe that it is a legitimate strategy for debaters to evaluate impacts through a causal chain of events. As this topic was rolled out at debate camps this summer, cases stuck to the hard and fast concept that impacts had to stem from direct EU action. But by the time the last camp finished up in mid- August, it was clear that ground for the topic rooted in Europe was based on a largely financial core. So, as debaters and coaches, it will be important to coach to the idea of a strong link chain that makes sure that the central idea of the topic is rooted in the EU joining the BRI and that from that root, you can get impacts. Impacts and their weighing mechanisms can’t artificially grow from simply arguing the BRI is good or bad in “X” country without first linking it to the EU. Back to the concept of view, each world view must be concerned with different things. Human nature is driven by many different things, and one of the biggest factors is our location within the world. Our location affects what things we care about, what issues we take for granted, and what things keep us up at night. Debaters on this topic seem to have been looking at this through the eyes of the European Union or European nations. They are focused on the term of art of the “European Union” that is located in the resolution and have largely ignored the other two views. I do not thing that this is wrong, but I think there is an argument to be made that this is one route that could be explored more, and one that I feel, especially once you get into October and people start getting “bored” with this topic, more and more people will start experimenting with. Once you have chosen the view that you can best articulate in round, it is time to find the actual “phrasing” you will use in case. For this, let the narrative of your case shape the direction of your framework. Based on the largest impacts in case or the direction you and your partner want to take the topic, frameworks that seem to be working and winning are: -Economic Prosperity (which side can best provide for the greatest increase in economic growth or stability.) -World Pease (which side can best provide for international stability that keeps all nations from going to war.) -Human Rights (which side can best solve for the basic civility when working with minority or oppressed groups.)

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-The Environment (In some form, which side can best protect planet Earth.) -Technological Advancement (which side best leads to new technology and why is this good?) -Cost Benefit (after looking at all advantages, which side seems to provide the most general benefit?) Of course, there are more that exist, but based on a survey of cases that have been written thus far on this topic, these seem to be the most popular ones. The important thing to remember is to find one that fits your narrative. Based the narratives that have been discussed in roundtables online and at camps, it seems that the prevailing view is that there should be a European or a Chinese worldview to impact level analysis. Thus, for this brief, that is where the majority of arguments will fall. Based on the definition debate, there are a few points that will vary based on the arguments you are planning on running. One thing to note here is that the long-standing issue with topicality debates in public forum is that judges are willing to vote on these issues but they often don’t know why they are voting. Debaters will read a definition but unlike a policy or an LD round, there is no in round impact weighing. If you chose to engage in a definition debate, it needs to be made clear why you are doing so. Are you looking to exclude an opponent’s point or argument because it falls outside of the bounds of the resolution or have they done something that you feel demands a voting issue that is independent from the rest of the debate? I will speak from experience that arguing that definitions mean the exclusion of a point or argument are more persuasive than using the debate like a topicality debate in a policy round. With that being said, here is where we can see some points of conflict emerging. Join- What does it mean to “join?” As of now, some 18 countries have signed on to the BRI from the EU. What additional impact would we garner from the whole 27 member joining? Who has the power to signal the union is joining? Is there a vote in the EU general assembly or can the member nation’s leaders agree to join? Belt and Road- The debate here is whether to include 5G networks in this debate. As some teams are going to go big on the technology and 5G network route, being able to argue and win that 5G should be or should not be included might very well win you a round without engaging in a majority of the debate. European Union- Traditionally this inclu8des the 27 member nations, but the issue once again arises as to whether they all need to join as a group to count as the EU. Also, there is this issue of the Brexit and whether the United Kingdom is considered aa member of the EU still or what happens if they leave during the debates on this topic, will that change arguments?

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Social/Political

At the start of the topic when research first began, this area seemed to be the least thought of in the eyes of most debaters. Much of the debate literature seemed to be focused on the areas of international relations and economics. However, as research began, several argument areas emerged that seemed to give hope that each and every debate would not be about GDP and power projection. As stated earlier, the three or four main argument areas will be covered below. What I look to do here is to give a very short list of other arguments that have come out in this same topic subheading. These are arguments that I feel could see legitimate debate at some point but either they are still being worked out by teams or they haven’t found a huge literature base to make them viable yet. Looking at the rest of the spectrum, there were smaller advantages that were considered. One argument that was starting to find ground was the idea that the EU accepting the BRI would be a defeat for the far-right parties in Europe and then running the right-wing bad impacts. As of the writing of this brief, there wasn’t enough data on this to report but it is something interesting. Along those lines, you have arguments that BRI will strengthen German power or save Italy with the appropriate impacts for each. You also have arguments about how the BRI is necessary to save the EU in a world where the British are about to make an exit from the continent. All are arguments that have potential but need the research to find their grounding. Looking at this from the American perspective, you also have issues concerning the Democratic primary and election 2020. I’ve heard and seen on message board that some teams are looking to argue that EU-Sino BRI would pull China away from the trade table and that would kill Trump’s chances at reelection. The converse is that it fuels his base and he wins in a landslide. This to me sounds like the formation of a Politics DA more suited for policy debate, but I’m sure that some enterprising PF team will look into this and try it, and I hope I get a chance to see it run as this does interest me.

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Environment

When this topic was first rolled out back in the summer as one of the two potential topic areas, camps that used this as their camp topic focused mainly on the economic growth and international relations impacts that would grow from the BRI. As the topic matured and as the march into the preseason carried on, more and more people started to pay attention to the environmental impact of a massive construction project that would span most of the diameter of the world. The environment argument has several offshoots, but it all boils down to one thing: The BRI is the most ambitious construction project that has ever been undertaken in recent times. As of the writing of this brief, the Amazon is burning, and Iceland just held a funeral for a melted glacier. The big three auto maters just agreed to have better fuel emissions standards than were mandated by US law, and Tesla just unveiled a new solar charged battery system called “Megapack” in Australia that can power a city on a day’s charge. There is a worldwide push is for green and clean tech. With the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement by all but a handful of nations, it is obvious that the shift in the world is for a sustainable future. One of the regions that is shifting to clean tech faster than anyone could have imagined is Europe. Many of the European nations have adopted some of the most stringent and restrictive anti-pollution laws on record. For China to expand the BRI into Europe, the Chinese would need to adopt these measures and adapt their current construction methods to fit the European model. There is also an argument to be made that the expansion of a massive highway, rail, air, and waterway transit system will require new technology that is more advanced and is more up to date than technology of the past. In this regard, China is till floundering in the 1990’s with technology that was developed in an era when Bill Clinton was president and Donald Trump was known for the XFL. This new era of forced modernization would have to be into the realm of new, clean tech as that is the status quo as of now. On the flipside, we must evaluate the short-term impacts. The first is that the construction of the BRI would eat up at raw materials. Building roads, bridges, large infostructure control buildings like airports and seaports, and the general upkeep needed to keep everything running on a project this large will almost certainly require large amounts of raw materials. Furthermore, the creation of many of these building projects would need to occur in areas that are “natural.” That is to say, they are undeveloped and filled with forests and fields. Massive amounts of deforestation caused across central Asia and Europe can be expected as the massive highway and rail system are built. This only magnifies the situation of deforestation that is being caused by the massive burning of the Amazon rainforests that have ravaged Brazil since July.

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Next, there is an argument that many of the nations that are the recipients of the BRI funds and Chinese construction funds have less stringent environmental laws or less access to clean and renewable sources of energy. One of the primary means to power the BRI projects is for China to build coal fired powerplants in nations that accept BRI funding. When debating this argument, it is important to be clear as to long vs short term impacts and why yours matters more than your opponent’s responses. Can we really see long term benefits if we all die from lung cancer in the short term? Are there any short-term impacts that we can get that can extend our ability to see the long term? And furthermore, what are the long-term impacts? In this case, I actually think that global warming impacts from policy debaters might actually have weight as besides a Russian nuclear war, climate change is likely the biggest threat to worldwide human survival.

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Sample Evidence

The BRI involves a massive constructive project that will span across Asia into Europe

Peng, Zhang. "China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative," 5-21-2019, Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative

Xi’s vision included creating a vast network of railways, energy pipelines, highways, and streamlined border crossings, both westward—through the mountainous former Soviet republics—and southward, to Pakistan, India, and the rest of Southeast Asia. Such a network would expand the international use of Chinese currency, the renminbi, while new infrastructure could “break the bottleneck in Asian connectivity,” according to Xi. (The Asian Development Bank estimates that the region faces a yearly infrastructure financing shortfall of nearly $800 billion.) In addition to physical infrastructure, China plans to build fifty special economic zones, modeled after the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, which China launched in 1980 during its economic reforms under leader Deng Xiaoping.

China’s BRI project is breaking the Paris Climate Agreement by building more coal fired powerplants than pollution limits can allow

Tabuchi, Hiroko. "As Beijing Joins Climate Fight, Chinese Companies Build Coal Plants," 7-1-2017, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/climate/china-energy-companies-coal-plants- climate-change.html

But new data on the world’s biggest developers of coal-fired power plants paints a very different picture: China’s energy companies will make up nearly half of the new coal generation expected to go online in the next decade.

These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries.

Over all, 1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries, according to Urgewald’s tally, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 percent.

The fleet of new coal plants would make it virtually impossible to meet the goals set in the Paris climate accord, which aims to keep the increase in global temperatures from preindustrial levels below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

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Further Reading

Chen. Han. "Greener Power Projects for the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI)," April 22, 2019, NRDC, https://www.nrdc.org/experts/han-chen/greener-power-projects-belt-road-initiative- bri

Chen Teo, Hoong, et al. “Environmental Impacts of Infrastructure: Development under the Belt and Road Initiative” June 19, 2019, MDPI, https://www.mdpi.com/2076- 3298/6/6/72/pdf

Giacomo Davide, De Luca. “Roads, Development and Deforestation: A Review” CRED, University of Namur – Belgium, June 2007, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTKNOWLEDGEFORCHANGE/Resources/491519- 1199818447826/roads_development_and_desorestation_a_review.pdf

Hilton, Isabel. "How China’s Big Overseas Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress," January 3, 2019, Yale E360, https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative- threatens-climate-progress

Zadek, Simon. "The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China’s Belt and Road," April 25, 2019, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future- development/2019/04/25/the-critical-frontier-reducing-emissions-from-chinas-belt- and-road/#cancel

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Human Rights

Lots of material has been written over the last three decades about the human right’s abuses that China has propagated in the name of state government expansion and state power consolidation. The purpose of this section isn’t an in depth look at the human rights issue. There are people getting their PhD’s right now over the issue of Chinese human rights and they only will cover one small area. This section will cover some of the more interesting things that the planned BRI expansion into Europe might cause. If the pro is going to debate the issue of human rights, they are going to do so by debating the awareness of the abuses that the BRI would raise. The European Union has some of the most stringent human rights laws in the world. They also host many of the major international criminal courts that are in charge of prosecuting violators as well as groups that act as watchdogs for human rights abuses. Bringing China into a direct trade relationship with the European Union would put a spotlight on their history of abuses and it might put pressure on their government to take meaningful change. One of the more interesting issues is that of the Uyghurs in the mountains of Western China. The Uyghurs are the Muslim population of Chinese the live closest to the border between Afghanistan and China. For decades, the Chinese philosophy was an unsteady “live and let live” policy. Once and a while, the Chinese would launch a minor police action into the western regions but nothing major. In 2001 after the terrorist attacks in Washington DC and New York, the Chinese convinced the US government that the Uyghurs harboring terrorist cells. Thousands of these Muslim Chinese were sent to interrogation camps run by the US. After 2005, the majority of counter terrorism activities in the region ended and shifted into the mountains of Afghanistan as the search for Bin Laden heated up. However, renewed interest in the region has arisen as the BRI looks to start major construction projects. The main road that would connect China to the first trade center in Central Russia and eventually Europe would need to be built through the area that is currently occupied by the Uyghurs. As recently as this spring, the Chinese military has moved several army divisions into the region to push the native populations out. In the process, they have disregarded traditional international law regarding the treatment of indigenous populations, religious minorities, and other human rights laws. Full expansion of the BRI into Europe would only speed up and exacerbate the crisis. Another concern is that the BRI provides cover for the EU nations that allows China to mask their atrocities while letting the EU pretend that they have actually taken concrete action. The best way to think of this is to pretend that negations into the BRI is like the User Agreement for a credit card. Hidden away in the fine print and dozens of pages of legal terms and rules you might very well find a clause that requires you to tithe six pounds of potatoes to your bank every month. Now, this is an extreme example, but if someone were to say that they found that clause in their contract, no one would be all that surprised. The reason is that long

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discussions, agreements, meetings and negotiations, especially over issues that the majority of the population has very little stomach for, tend to be summarized for general media consumption. In this regard, the European Union has used the meetings they have hosted with China over the BRI to discuss the issue of human rights. This discussion has yielded little in the way of concessions, change, or even acknowledgement from the Chinese government. However, both sides walk away from their meetings claiming success and progress on the issue because they know they control how the spin of the argument will go. All this does is cover up the atrocities that have occurred, waters down current international law as the Chinese see that no punishment or oversite will occur, and it allows the abuses to continue. Finally, we get to the issue of leverage. China is desperate to sign the more nations on to the BRI, especially as their trade war with the US deepens. The biggest market that they have left to fully tap is that of the European Union. This gives the EU a huge amount of leverage to ask for things during negotiations. Although hesitant in the past to push the issue of human rights with China for fear of causing them to leave the table, now, with China needing allies and a new markets, the time is right for Europe to start demanding things like transparency for how they deal with political prisoners, religious minorities, and their election system. This is critical now as with the writing of this, the Hong Kong protests are still ongoing and the push for democratic change seems to have the world watching. A little “encouragement” from the European allies in exchange for some BRI deals might bring China to the table on many issues. When debating this issue, it will be important to remember that human rights is hard to quantify. You have body counts and stories of atrocities committed at the hands of the Chinese, but to be quite frank, these stories and images are not new. People have been desensitized to these images and stories for so long that you almost need to link this to a larger issue besides just human rights. I think that the key is to use Chinese human rights as a gateway to worldwide rights promotions or some sort of economic benefit. I know that this route might sound like your are trivializing, but after judging human rights arguments for years in both college and high school, it almost seems like the necessity. This isn’t to say that a team can’t win off of straight human rights and with the numbers that would be saved by getting China to stop the oppression of their political opponents, but in the long run, there is more breath in arguing that human rights is the key to going global.

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Sample Evidence BRI comes at a cost. The Chinese are oppressing the Uyghurs in a cultural genocide. An EU/China alliance in BRI would underscore international efforts for human rights in the region.

Jan Van "Is China's Belt and Road Initiative an attack on European unity?," 3-13-2019, RFI, http://en.rfi.fr/asia-pacific/20190313-does-china-try-break-eu-its-belt-and-road-initiative

Apart from that, the report complains about China’s general human rights situation, singling out Beijing’s treatment of the Muslim Uyghurs in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, but also the “treatment of EU and other foreign citizens in China”. The report calls for strict respect for World Trade Organisation regulations.

The EU report comes after Italy’s Undersecretary for Economic Development, Michele Geraci, said that Rome planned to sign a memorandum of understanding to support China’s BRI – this on the eve of a visit by China’s President Xi Jinping to Italy on March 22.

Italy’s endorsement of the BRI is the first by one of the EU’s founding members, and has annoyed many officials in Brussels.

The BRI is already active in hundreds of local projects in countries like Pakistan, the Maldives and Djibouti. But criticism is growing as many countries don’t manage to fulfil debt repayments for the Chinese loans for those projects. Pakistan and Malaysia have started cancelling some of the BRI projects while other nations have been obliged to make their repayments in raw materials.

Accepting the BRI in Europe would allow for a whitewashing of Chinese human rights abuses and for these abuses to be swept under the rug while the EU is allowed to tout their “progress” on the issue

Human Rights Watch, 4-4-2019, "EU: Make China’s Rights Crisis a Summit Priority," https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/04/eu-make-chinas-rights-crisis-summit-priority

In a March 13 letter to EU leaders and member states’ foreign ministers, the groups detailed severe erosions of human rights in China, including the mass arbitrary detention and surveillance of Turkic Muslims, the intensified political education in Tibet, and the persecution, enforced disappearance, and jailing of peaceful activists, human rights defenders, and defense lawyers.

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The groups also addressed China’s growing threat to human rights worldwide through efforts to undermine international human rights law and weaken institutions such as the United Nations Human Rights Council. The rapid expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative without sufficient rights safeguards, and China’s intense pressure on governments to forcibly return asylum seekers and others who would be at serious risk in China, are also having an impact on human rights worldwide.

On April 1-2, the EU hosted the 37th round of the EU-China human rights dialogue. Despite principled efforts by the EU External Action Service (EEAS), the dialogue remains a weak diplomatic tool. Chinese authorities consistently fail to demonstrate concrete progress on human rights issues raised by the EU. For the second straight year, Chinese officials canceled the session to meet with independent civil society organizations, including several that signed the letter.

For more than a decade, EU officials have insisted that the human rights dialogue was their only sure chance to debate human rights with Chinese officials, and was “better than nothing.” Instead, the dialogue has become a dumping ground for human rights concerns and criticism, letting EU and Chinese leaders off the hook from confronting these issues directly at a high level.

The EU’s press release following the April 1 human rights dialogue highlighted important efforts by the EEAS to raise individual cases, and noted that China did not participate in the full agenda of the dialogue, having declined to participate in what the EU described as a “meaningful exchange of views” with civil society.

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China human rights reforms key to global human rights – Prevents conflict

Nathan, Andrew. “Can the U.S. Help Advance Human Rights in China?,” www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/06/can-the-us-help-advance-human-rights-in-china/276841/)

We should remind our politicians that promoting China's adherence to universal human rights norms is not just a matter of moral idealism, but also a matter of sound strategy. First, everyone will feel safer as businesspeople, scholars, and tourists when China has rule of law, and this includes not only Americans but other foreigners and Chinese as well. Second, China's strategic intentions will be more transparent if they are shaped in an open political process, and this will reduce suspicion of China by all of China's neighbors and the U.S., which also will be good for China itself. Third, China will be more stable politically once the regime is grounded in the consent of the people, and a stable and prosperous China is in the interests of the rest of the world. Finally, a world with a robust set of international norms and institutions that regulate fields such as trade, investment, the environment, arms control, and human rights will be a more predictable and peaceful world, where conflicts of interest can be sorted out and common interests advanced in reliable ways. Such a world cannot be built without the full participation of a rising great power like China.

EU trading partners must adhere to EU human rights laws- Laundry List

European Parliament "Globalization: how EU trade policy helps promote human rights," June 29, 2019, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/economy/20190612STO54309/globalisation-how-eu-trade- policy-helps-promote-human-rights

International trade and globalization have great potential to create jobs in the EU and beyond. Yet, growing global competition can endanger human rights by for example leading to worker exploitation. As human rights are a priority of its foreign policy, the EU uses its trade policy to promote and protect human rights in non-EU countries through preferential trade deals, as well as unilateral trade restrictions.

One of the EU’s main tools to protect human rights and labour rights in non-EU countries is the Generalised System of Preferences (GPS). This scheme grants 90 developing countries preferential trade access to the EU market. However, this depends on them respecting human rights. Access can be withdrawn when systematic violations occur.

The EU’s strategy is to encourage gradual progress through dialogue and monitoring. Sanctions are used only in extreme cases. Suspension of GSP preferences has occurred three times: with Myanmar in 1997, Belarus in 2007 and Sri Lanka in 2010.

While the scheme has led beneficiary countries to make legislative and institutional changes to promote human rights, implementation has been slower in a number of countries.

The EU can also impose unilateral trade restrictions or set due diligence obligations for importers to ensure that money from trade with the EU is not being used to fund conflict and human rights violations in these countries.

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The EU also has strict rules to prevent the use of European goods and technologies for unethical intentions elsewhere, for example medical substances that could be used in executions.. Imports of items whose production is related to human rights violations are also restricted, including conflict minerals and objects that can be used for torture. In 2002, after recognizing the impact international trade in diamonds has on human rights, the EU adopted rules that ban all imports of rough diamonds without a certificate of origin. Similarly, minerals, used in the production of, for example high-tech devices, often stem from countries afflicted by conflict. The revenue gained from minerals exported to the EU often sustained armed revolts. To prevent the international trade in minerals from funding conflict and human rights violations, MEPs adopted in 2017 rules obliging EU importers of tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold to carry out due diligence checks on their suppliers. The regulation will be fully in force from 2021. EU rules ban any trade in goods and services that may contribute to torture or execution. Since 2004, an export control system is in place, which checks and prohibits goods that may be used to treat people badly. Authorization is necessary for items that have legitimate purposes but that can also be used for human rights violations, such as medicinal substances. The rules also include a ban on the marketing and transit of equipment used for cruel, inhumane and degrading treatment that have no other practical use than execution or torture, such as electric chairs or automatic drug injection systems. The EU has rules to ensure that products and technologies originally produced for civilian use in Europe cannot be used to violate human rights. Dual-use items are goods, software, or technology that, besides their original purpose, can be abused. Examples of other uses include developing weaponry, committing terrorist attacks, spying on people, or infiltrating computer systems, hacking computers, or intercepting mobile phones An update of the rules is being discussed featuring stricter export controls, brokering, transit and transfer of dual-use items and taking into account technological developments. Export controls are facilitated by a common EU list of dual-use items. In 2017, Parliament adopted a resolution calling for EU rules obliging textile and clothing suppliers to respect workers’ rights. It proposed a due diligence obligations system, meaning investigation into the standards of human rights before entering a trade agreement. Non-EU countries would have to comply with EU norms to produce sustainable and ethical textiles. Parliament also wants the EU and member states to promote International Labour Organisation standards on wages and working hours with partner countries in the garment sector. A 2016 Parliament resolution calls for ways to trace evidence of forced and child labour. Measures include labelling child-labour-free products, giving trade preferences to countries that meet certain labour standards and prohibiting the import of products made by child labour. The implementation of an effective traceability mechanism would steer towards a complete ban on such products. The resolution also calls for the combating of forced and child labour to be included in the trade and sustainable development chapters of EU agreements to promote human rights through international trade.

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Further Reading

Editorial Board, "Opinion," Washington Post, July 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/muslim-countries-joined- china-in-defending-its-cultural-genocide-of-uighurs-arent-they- ashamed/2019/07/20/0a7d62b4-aa3f-11e9-86dd- d7f0e60391e9_story.html?utm_term=.63260f98bed1

Faiz, Abbas. "Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative Undermining Human Rights?," The Diplomat, 6- 7-2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative- undermining-human-rights/

Grain “Greening” the Belt and Road Initiative? What about people's rights?," https://www.grain.org/en/article/6239-greening-the-belt-and-road-initiative-what- about-people-s-rights

Pelagidis, Theodore. "China’s backdoor to Europe," 4-15-2019, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/04/15/chinas-backdoor-to-europe/

PIccone, Ted. “CHINA’S LONG GAME ON HUMAN RIGHTS AT THE UNITED NATIONS,” September 2018, Foreign Policy at Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/wp- content/uploads/2018/09/FP_20181009_china_human_rights.pdf

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF European Collation/Unity 20

European Collation/Unity

The European Union is the world’s fourth largest national confederation. It spans 27 nations and encompasses over 500 million people. They are surpassed only by China, India, and the US. Taken collectively, when the leaders of the EU speak, the world listens. However, the major division that has occurred has been financial. Troubles with the large economic powers feeling exploited as they are asked to “bail out” the smaller nations and the debate over whether to join the BRI have driven a wedge between the member states. This is causing a fracturing of one of the largest unions in the world. This instability is harmful to the stability of the world. First, instability in the European Union’s economy will cause a global recession. The EU is essentially a massive free trade zone that contains 27 member states and over 500 million people. They are in the top four largest economic groups in the world with the United States, India, and China. In a world where protectionist trade policies of the US have limited the flow of cash around the world, access to critical products and goods from Europe is necessary to keep the economies of the world moving forward. As stated earlier, the world is still in shock from the 2008 economic recession. A shock to the world now could push the world back into a global recession where billions would be put at risk due to economic hardships. Joining the BRI as an entire union would show that “One Belt, One Road” is being met with “One Europe, Once Voice.” Second, there is the issue of Russia. The demonstration of stability by the union putting aside their differences and joining as one would show a strong front to Russia. The stability of a strong and united EU rests on the economic stability. It goes without saying that if the EU were to slide into a recession or worse, collapse due to a failing economic system, their policy making clout would be greatly diminished. The effects of a strong EU are twofold in containing Russia as they seek expansion in the Balkans. First, being a large economic power, Russian imports from the EU contain the power to shape and influence their policies. This allows the EU to have major control over what Russia does and how they react to outside influences. Second, a strong EU can mobilize in a show of force against any potential Russian aggression. One of the main reasons that Russia was able to move so easily into the Ukraine 2014 was that the EU was more focused on stabilizing a bankrupt Greece than they were on providing a military stopgap for an allied member state. The impact to this is real human lives. The invasion and resulting occupation have taken 13,000 lives. This all occurred in an area that is the size of the state of Maine and over the course of a one-month invasion and five-year occupation. When debating this topic, it is going to be critical to remember that individual member states have been joining the BRI for the last five years. Teams are going to try to trick you into conceding that this makes your impacts non unique. You need to stand your ground and remember that the uniqueness of your arguments does not come from one but from many. You

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get your uniqueness from the force of the EU joining as a collective. Furthermore, there are lots of impacts out there besides economics and Russia. Environmental protection, the Arctic, counterterrorism, and counterbalancing the US are all impacts that exist for a strong and united EU. There is also an argument to be made that with the 27 nations united, they will be able to exact pressure on China to make reforms to the way they conduct trade, human rights, and other issues on a “laundry list” of things that have been plaguing the international community for years. This is another advantage where you and your partner need to find an impact scenario you are comfortable with, have read into, and want to debate.

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Sample Evidence

The EU is key to global free trade rules and procedure

Gaspers, Jan. "Germany Wants Europe to Help Shape China's Belt and Road Initiative," 12-17-2016, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2016/12/germany-wants-europe-to-help-shape-chinas-belt-and- road-initiative/

Apart from this, BRI has neither yielded infrastructure investments nor has it featured as a visible driver of Chinese M&A and greenfield investment activities in the Federal Republic. This is quite different for countries at Europe’s periphery in the east and the south, who are eager to attract Chinese funding to upgrade their infrastructure. They deal with China directly or have joined sub-regional cooperation formats such as the 16+1 group, which brings together 16 Central and Eastern European countries and China on a regular basis to discuss investment projects and the wider political agenda. What is still lacking is an ambitious, constructive, and forward-looking European agenda on how to engage with BRI – which is why the German government has taken the approach of “multilateralizing” the issue. In Brussels, Germany advocates using the EU-China Connectivity Platform to ensure the conformity of Chinese BRI-related investments in Europe with EU rules and standards. German officials also see this platform as a tool to co-design the new European-Chinese economic corridors. Germany has also supported the work of a new internal working group of the European External Action Service aimed at developing a European vision on Eurasian connectivity beyond mere infrastructure projects. Germany supports the European Investment Bank’s efforts to provide technical support to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and to co-fund AIIB projects related to BRI. Germany’s decision to assume a high profile in the AIIB, which was founded on China’s initiative, constitutes an important indirect attempt to actively shape China’s BRI-related activities in Eurasia.

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XI has had to agree to a laundry list in order to sweeten the pot on the BRI with the European leaders. In order to accomplish this, the EU has gotten China to agree to better standards such as transparent trade, uphold intellectual property rights, and give fair access to the Chinese market for European goods

Lao, Marnie. "European bloc not considering joining China’s Belt and Road plans," 4-1-2019, euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-china/news/european-bloc-not-considering-joining-chinas-belt- and-road-plans/.

The BRI summit came against the backdrop of cancellations and postponements of various projects by participating countries, and a general unease with China’s handling of its one-trillion-dollar initiative.

President Xi told his guests, including 37 heads of state, that he would improve the transparency and debt analysis of countries receiving financial support.

Open up economy

At the same time, he promised to continue progressing on opening up the economy and abolishing subsidies, as the EU and the US have demanded.

China and the US are close to sealing a deal aimed at resolving a trade dispute that has included damaging tariffs on $360 billion worth of goods.

Next week, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing on April 30 for a new round of negotiations.

President Donald Trump on Thursday said Xi would soon be coming to the US to seal the trade deal, without providing a date for the long expected visit.

Xi has previously vowed to lower tariffs, increase imports, uphold intellectual property rights and lift barriers for foreign companies to access the Chinese market. But at the summit, he fell short of providing any details for the implementation.

“We will overhaul and abolish unjustified regulations, subsidies and practises that impede fair competition and distort the market,” Xi said.

China’s pledges not only to open up its economy but also to review the terms of its landmark infrastructure building project came against mounting pressure by participating countries, European nations and international organizations.

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Only a strong EU can solve global economic decline, environmental collapse, and disease

Bruton T.D, John. “A Report For The Joint Oireachtas Committee On European Affairs”The Irish Times, Thursday, January 31, 2002,

As the Laeken Declaration put it, "Europe needs to shoulder its responsibilities in the governance of globalisation" adding that Europe must exercise its power in order "to set globalisation within a moral framework, in other words to anchor it in solidarity and sustainable development". Only a strong European Union is big enough to create a space, and a stable set of rules, within which all Europeans can live securely, move freely, and provide for themselves, for their families and for their old age. Individual states are too small to do that on their own. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with the globalised human diseases, such as AIDS and tuberculosis. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with globalised criminal conspiracies, like the Mafia, that threaten the security of all Europeans. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with globalised environmental threats, such as global warming, which threaten our continent and generations of its future inhabitants. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with globalised economic forces, which could spread recession from one country to another and destroy millions of jobs. Only a strong European Union is big enough to regulate, in the interests of society as a whole, the activities of profit seeking private corporations, some of which now have more spending power than many individual states. These tasks are too large for individual states. Only by coming together in the European Union can we ensure that humanity, and the values which make us, as individuals, truly human, prevail over blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.

Strong and united EU solves multiple scenarios for global conflict

Bruton, John “Report before the Joint Committee on European Affairs, Parliament of Ireland,” October 2001, http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-europeanaffairs/future/page1.htm

Only a strong European Union is big enough to create a space, and a stable set of rules, within which all Europeans can live securely, move freely, and provide for themselves, for their families and for their old age. Individual states are too small to do that on their own. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with the globalized human diseases, such as AIDS and tuberculosis. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with globalized criminal conspiracies, like the Mafia, that threaten the security of all Europeans. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with globalized environmental threats, such as global warming, which threaten our continent and generations of its future inhabitants. Only a strong European Union is big enough to deal with globalized economic forces, which could spread recession from one country to another and destroy millions of jobs. Only a strong European Union is big enough to regulate, in the interests of society as a whole, the activities of profit seeking private corporations, some of which now have more spending power than many individual states. 2.7 These tasks are too large for individual states. 2.8 Only by coming together in the European Union can we ensure that humanity, and the values which make us, as individuals, truly human, prevail over blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.

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Further Reading

Bruton, John “Report before the Joint Committee on European Affairs, Parliament of Ireland,” October 2001, http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c- europeanaffairs/future/page1.htm

Cebeci, Münevver. “Reassessing EU and US Foreign Policy: The Lisbon Treaty, the Obama Administration, and Beyond,” Issues in EU and US Foreign Policy

Segal, Adam. "Why Europe Is Getting Tough on China," Foreign Affairs, 4-3-2019, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-04-03/why-europe-getting-tough- china

Skala-Kuhmann, Dr. Astrid. CIRSD, "European Responses to BRI," https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-summer-2019-issue-no-14/european- responses-to-bri-an-overdue-assessment

Tuomioja, Dr. Erkki. “The Role of Soft Power in EU Common Foreign Policy” International Symposium on Cultural Diplomacy Berlin 30.7. 2009

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Economic

There is where the majority of arguments on the topic tended to revolve when it was first announced. The core of the topic did tend to drift towards growth by both Europe and China. The surprise to me was debt traps and 5G. All of these arguments are covered below. Economically, there isn’t much room that falls outside of the four areas above. Anything that does tends to be swept up as an international relations issue. But there are some arguments that are still viable. First, Rare Earth Minerals makes a comeback from a year ago. The argument is that in order to provide for an increase in new technology trade with Europe, China will need more REM’s. This will drive up their mining and exploration of the South China Sea. Poverty reduction is an argument that has ground. China is hoping to increase their trade with Europe, but the reverse is that Europe will also be exchanging goods with China. This will drive a new wave of factory jobs and farming labor. Furthermore, as new ports and highways are opened, workers will be needed to staff and maintain these structures. Along the land route, rest stops will spring up across Asia and as trade caravans move across the continents, they will stop and find new markets along the way. This increases the trade factor across Asia to a billion people. Much has been written that poverty is the world’s biggest killer as it is responsible for everything from famine to disease outbreaks to the root cause of war. Green Technology falls within this area as well as under the environment. Development of new technology that can sustain and drive the BRI will likely be green as every nation that will be using the BRI has signed the Paris Climate Agreement. It is also becoming financially viable for China to invest in this technology as their old “dirty” technology is incompatible with the already green technology of Europe. Thus, not only could a team solve for green technology, they could also claim new innovations solve for world problems as well.

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Debt Traps

A little analogy to explain this one. Back in the 1990’s after the government relaxed rules on the banking industry to make it easier for people to get revolving loans, credit card companies that sold high interest cards to people with a limited credit history would advertise on college campuses during move in weekend and they would offer things like free bags of candy, gift cards to the local grocery store, shirts, and other things that had almost no real long lasting value. All you had to do to get these things was to apply for their credit card. Based on the conditions of the card, a majority of the applicants got their cards approved and three to four weeks later, they were sitting with a new credit card, a high spending limit, a huge interest rate, and no parents in sight. These students went out and bought things they didn’t need thinking that they could make the monthly payments. But over time, the debt mounted and grew, the number of credit cards they got grew, and their general lack of knowledge about the how long it would really take them to pay back the debt grew. This credit bubble popped with a wave of bankruptcies in the early 2000’s. This analogy is the micro level equivalent of the debt traps that some economists feel the BRI leads to. As China builds the roads, ports, airports, and infrastructure that it needs to connect the world, it does so by extending other nation’s loans from both the Chinese government as well as from private backers in China. Although these loans are low interest and repayment plans can be negotiated with the borrowers should the debtor nation need help, they are still loans and they must be repaid. And even with the terms from above, if a nation takes out a 100-million-dollar loan to build a port, low interest or not, you are still on the hook for 100 million dollars. For some nations, this might not be an issue, but the problem lies when you look at the nations that see this as an opportunity to expand their economic borders or to improve the quality of life for their citizens. They are the college student. They see the allure of what is being offered and they sign up. Now, the nation is doing so with the best of intentions. However, they have fallen into another trap and that is the idea that you need to spend money to make money or that spending money can dig you out of a hole. In some nations that have taken out BRI loans, their GDP to debt ratio is almost 40%. In one case, a country that took on a BRI loan pushed their GDP to debt ratio over 50%. The impact to this is twofold. The first and most obvious is that bankruptcy of a nation due to debt is unheard of and for it to happen would undoubtedly cause a shockwave though the world economic markets that would likely cause a massive worldwide recession. The main reason that the EU spent so much time working to keep Greece solvent in the mid 2010’s was to avoid a Greek default and collapse of the Eurozone. Second is the sheer leverage that China would wield over as the debt collector. In this scenario, they are the credit card company that is calling asking for their payment. They know that default is out of the question except in the most severe situations. Thus, they are willing to negotiate with the countries at hand in order to

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keep the money flowing. Securing good repayment plant or a lower interest rate might make a nation indebted on a political level with China. And should any nation be unable to repay their loan or refuse to repay, China, as the loan holder, by law is allo0wed to seize the property as theirs. So they might not have repayment but they will have property and land in a foreign country that they might not have had access to before. In this case, it is a win-win for China no matter what. The counter to this argument is that for many nations that need development assistance, loans from China might be the only way they can expand their construction projects. Transportation projects to build the highway from East to West will also connect villages and towns that might not have had access to construction before. New ports mean new access to shipping, and airports means people can travel and tourism can open up. This all can mean increased revenue. Also, China has waived loans for projects in the past if a nation has shown their inability to pay due to debt. In their eyes, they would rather have trade access and relations than a port or highway in a foreign country they took via debt collection. Finally, for nations that need the money for development, they options are limited. In the case of the college student, maybe they desperately need the credit card to pay for something critical. In that case, the only other option is a payday loan. In this scenario, the payday loan would be a loan from the International Monetary Fund. I refer to the IMF as a payday loan company here with no malice meant but their founding objective was to maintain national order via banking and layers of financial conditions. So, it’s either the credit card or a loan with many string and a sky high interest rate. Likewise, it’s loans from China or meeting the financial conditions of the IMF. To debate this argument, it is important to come out swinging with empirics. There are lots of examples on both sides to show that the loans are either good or bad. Simply explaining why they are likely won’t be enough for a judge. In this situation, you want to point out specific examples and times when BRI loans causes nations to default and be stuck between a rock and a hard place or times where the loans allowed massive development and growth.

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Sample Evidence

Money mismanagement and debt kills the success of the BRI

Russel, Daniel R. and Berger, Blake. The Foreign Policy Research Institute, "Endangered Golden Goose: Hong Kong’s Economic Value To China – Analysis," Eurasia Review, 9-2-2019, https://www.eurasiareview.com/02092019-endangered-golden-goose-hong-kongs-economic-value-to- china-analysis/

Beijing is seeking to multilateralize the BRI and open it up to international public and private investors. The challenge is that commercial banks, MDBs, and private international financiers will not invest in a project that has not been adequately de-risked or is not designed to be financially viable. The use of public money through government-backed insurance or Chinese development bank financing, which provides implicit or explicit government guarantee, has created a moral hazard in which “easy money” leads Chinese developers to take outsize risks or pursue unprofitable projects. This has led to financial losses, political backlash, environmental damage, and other negative outcomes. Projects that are not structured according to commercial lending standards can saddle host governments with unsustainable debt, and lead to politically and economically problematic outcomes, including debt-to-equity swaps and concessions. The Kunming–Vientiane Railway in Laos, estimated to cost USD $5.95 billion, is the largest investment in the country’s history. Laos’s commitments under the terms of the project total roughly USD $1.78 billion, not including some $300 million in resettlement costs. This potentially represents roughly 12 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in external public debt for a low-income country whose public debt level in 2016 had already reached a dangerous 68 percent of GDP.14 Moreover, the financial feasibility of the project has been questioned because of estimates that the railway would lose money for at least the first decade of operation instead of the annual 4.35 percent profit that the joint venture company running the railway has stated that it hopes to make.15 BRI projects are often larger and more expensive than the host country can afford, leading to reliance on opaque work-arounds and side deals to compensate the developer for nonviable projects. These in some cases include natural resource concessions that are not objectively valued or are granted without public disclosure and comment, as well as land grants, often without clear titles. These work-arounds foster corruption and create significant social and political problems. Laos has made tax and land concessions to support the Kunming–Vientiane Railway project, significantly undercutting the benefits it will derive.16 Past experience suggests that further concessions may be necessary to cover the government’s obligations. In 2008, the Lao government had to cede land to a Chinese developer as compensation for back debts from a Chinese-built sports stadium in Vientiane.

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BRI is developing nations is just a cohesive way to gain control over these nations

Shullman, David. "Protect the Party: China’s growing influence in the developing world," 1-22-2019, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/protect-the-party-chinas-growing-influence-in-the- developing-world/

First, Beijing wants to mitigate mounting economic challenges and slowing growth in China through overseas investment and the creation of markets abroad for Chinese goods and materials. The Party’s legitimacy depends on the health of China’s economy.[6] Access to resources needed to feed China’s growing economy has long driven its engagement with the developing world, but China’s economy is now struggling. Chinese leaders are therefore looking to further boost overseas investment and trade, which have been growing for years but have been partially rebranded under the BRI. As part of its broader economic development strategy, Beijing is using BRI to export massive quantities of steel and aluminum, find new markets for Chinese products, and help keep indebted state-owned enterprises (SOEs) afloat.[7] BRI projects, many of which are implemented through provincial governments eager to capitalize, facilitate the expansion of Chinese companies’ international footprint.[8] These efforts are viewed as critical to propping up growth and employment as China endures an uncertain transition from a manufacturing focus to services and consumption, including potential reforms likely to result in layoffs.[9]

China's new Politburo Standing Committee members (from L to R) Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli, arrive to meet with the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, November 15, 2012. China's ruling Communist Party unveiled its new leadership line-up on Thursday to steer the world's second-largest economy for the next five years, with Vice President Xi Jinping taking over from outgoing President Hu Jintao as party chief.

BRI-linked economic initiatives, and China’s narrative and diplomatic push tied to the promise of BRI infrastructure funding, translate into significant Chinese influence in developing countries.[10] Some of this influence is a natural result of a $13 trillion economy showering promises of investment on developing countries desperate for infrastructure. The opacity and the nature of Chinese investment practices, however, have resulted in significant negative effects on countries’ economies and political institutions. For example, some developing countries, such as Sri Lanka, have assumed unsustainable debt burdens as a result of Chinese infrastructure financing deals, ultimately resulting in a loss of sovereignty over strategic assets.[11] While China’s approach in most developing countries is less aggressive, it is still frequently corrosive of democratic institutions, increasing corruption and undermining financial and political independence.[12] China, in part to defend its economic interests, also interferes in the political systems of developing countries around the world, tipping the scales towards China-friendly politicians and policies.[13]

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Further Reading

Chang, Felix K. "Unequal Sequel: China’s Belt and Road Initiative," 8-6-2019, Foreign Policy Research Institute, https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/08/unequal-sequel-chinas-belt- and-road-initiative/

Greer, Tanner. "One Belt, One Road, One Big Mistake," Foreign Policy, 12-6-2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/06/bri-china-belt-road-initiative-blunder/

Kynge, James. "China’s Belt and Road projects drive overseas debt fears," 8-7-2018, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/e7a08b54-9554-11e8-b747-fb1e803ee64e

Ming, Cheang. “China’s mammoth Belt and Road Initiative could increase debt risk for 8 countries,” March 5, 2018, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/chinas-belt-and- road-initiative-raises-debt-risks-in-8-nations.html

USCC “CHAPTER 3 CHINA AND THE WORLD SECTION 1: BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE” November 2, 2018 https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Annual_Report/Chapters/Chapter%203%20Se ction%201-%20Belt%20and%20Road%20Initative_0.pdf

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF European Economic Growth 32

European Economic Growth

Although they have avoided the majority of the trade war and tariff bombardment that the US has levied against most economic powers worldwide, the European Union isn’t without its causalities. Shortly after taking office. President Trump levied steel and aluminum tariffs against all trading partners. Combined with the tariffs on imported cars, food, and manufactured goods, the European economies have seen a decrease in their trade revenue with the United States. This comes at a horrible time. First, the British are still trying to sort out the Brexit fiasco. As of the writing of this, it looks like a no deal Brexit might be the only option left on the table. If this transpires, the continent could be rocked by having to negotiate new trade deals with UK. Second, since the European Union functions like a massive collation of nations, they are only as strong as their weakest link. This is the reason that the Europeans worked so hard to prevent a Greek default on loans almost a decade ago and why Italy and their financial stability is of top concern in Brussels. Finally, the EU is being pulled down by the same forces that are acting as a drag on the rest of the economies of the world: the Sino-US trade war is shaking markets and killing off investor confidence in manufacturing and investment. This is turning into a perfect storm. Many economists feel that the EU and it’s 500 million citizens are on the edge of a knife. They are stable for the meantime, but they need long term growth or they will slip back into a recession that might he worst than 2008. The Chinese have touted the BRI is the solution for Europe’s failing economies. The EU’s business model is outdated and can’t compete with the rest of the world. Their banking system is outdated, and they are facing a mass rebellion for their member nations. The French model of group support can’t win as rich nations don’t want to subsidize the poorer nations. In that scenario, we see backlash happening in both France and Germany. Many citizens of the wealthier nations in Europe see themselves as the savings accounts for reckless spending and poor decision making for the lesser economically developed nations and they are tired of being asked to pay more in taxes to bail out others. Chinese trade ministers on recent diplomatic missions to Europe have stated that Chinese trade will revitalize the economy while poorer nations can negotiate with China on loans and building projects to rebuild their countries without putting a burden on the taxpayers of the richer EU nations. Debating this argument will come down to a numbers battle. Both sides will have stats that say that GDP is increased or not increased or not increased by as much, ect. The important thing is to be comparative in your evidence weighing. Reading stats back and forth is meaningless to me as a judge. When given a truck load of stats to evaluate, I tend to take the easy way out. I, however, give credit to the team that compares their evidence to their opponents and tells me why to prefer theirs. Tell the judge what the numbers mean. If you argue that GDP is increased by .33%, tell me why that is important. Is that worldwide or is that just in one country or in the EU? Explaining details like that are easy ways to get the ballots of

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most judges. It is also important to explain why the issue of financial success is important. Are we avoiding collapse? Why is collapse bad? These is the second level of impact analysis that needs to be done. Sample Evidence

Trade protectionism with America and the uncertainty of Brexit have Europe markets scrambling to recover. BRi is the solution. It’s proposal will provide new markets for European goods and services. Even harsh opponents such as the French President have changed their tune

Jinjing, Jia. "Europe shows growing enthusiasm toward BRI," 4-12-1-2019, China Daily, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201904/12/WS5cafdf8da3104842260b5c51.html

Following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Italy, Monaco and France in March, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Brussels, Belgium on April 8 for the 21st China-European Union (EU) leaders’ meeting. After Brussels, Li is scheduled to pay an official visit to Croatia where he will attend the eighth leaders’ meeting for China and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). China has attached great importance to diplomatic relations with Europe, as top Chinese leaders paid their first visit of the year to European countries.

During President Xi's visit, Italy became the first country in the Group of Seven (G7) to join the BRI with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). French President Emmanuel Macron proposed greater synergy between the EU strategy on connecting Europe and Asia, an EU development plan, and the BRI.

Against the backdrop of significant changes around the world, Europe is faced with restructuring in three aspects, including cross-Atlantic relationships.

The trans-Atlantic alliance under the framework of NATO has existed for seven decades, but the economic aggregate of all member countries, once accounting for over 70 percent of the world total, has now declined to about 40 percent.

The US turned to trade protectionism in the last two years, increasing pressure on the EU, especially in such fields as automobiles, iron and steel.

Furthermore, the EU now faces restructuring in financial systems owing to Brexit. The EU has been moving towards a stronger economic union according to the Statement by the Euro Area Heads of State or Government. When the UK leaves the EU, the system will have to change.

Global investors have high hopes for the Chinese renminbi, as large quantities of assets have begun to be priced in the Chinese currency nowadays.

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In this context, more European countries have chosen to join the BRI, including the 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

In April 2012, China and the CEECs launched the “16+1” cooperation mechanism, and five years later, all 16 CEECs became participants of the BRI.

Historically, Italy was the west end of the ancient Maritime Silk Road, and China had close exchanges with France, Croatia and other Mediterranean countries along the ancient Silk Road. Pioneers, including Marco Polo and Matteo Ricci, wrote brilliant chapters of historical exchange between Eastern and Western civilizations.

Now, bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Europe has been expanding, especially in trade scale and stable growth of two-way investment, and China-Europe cooperation will lay a solid foundation for the future development of the world.

The BRI is the solution for Europe’s failing economies. Their business model is outdated and can’t compete with the rest of the world. Their banking system is outdated, and they are facing a mass rebellion for their member nations. The French model of group support can’t win as rich nations don’t want to subsidize the poorer nations. The solution to a failing EU is BRI. Chinese trade will revitalize the economy while poorer nations can negotiate with China on loans and building projects to rebuild their countries without putting a burden on the taxpayers of the richer EU nations

Elliott, Larry. "The European Union has bigger problems to deal with than Brexit," 3-24-2019, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/24/the-europe-union-has-bigger-problems-to-deal- with-than-brexit

Much less attention, understandably enough, has been paid to what is happening in the rest of the European Union, where the recent news has been poor. The frustration of the leaders of the other 27 EU countries towards Theresa May is that Europe has plenty of issues that need addressing, with Brexit not even the most serious of them.

The EU’s biggest problem is that its economic model has aged alongside its population. Europe has plenty of world-class companies but, unlike the US, none of them were set up in the past 25 years. In Europe’s golden age, Volkswagen was a rival to Ford, and Siemens could go toe to toe with General Electric. But there is no European Google, Facebook or Amazon and in the emerging technologies of the fourth Industrial Revolution, such as artificial intelligence, Europe is nowhere.

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China is making faster progress than Europe in the development of machine learning and has companies that pose a threat to the giants of Silicon Valley. That’s why China rather than Europe is the main target for Donald Trump’s tariff war.

When plans for the euro were being drawn up 30 years ago, the assumption was that the single currency would make the single market work more efficiently and so generate faster growth. It hasn’t happened. The performance of the eurozone countries has got worse not better, but so much political capital has been invested in the monetary union project that there is an unwillingness to accept as much.

A real solution to Europe’s growth problems means fixing the design flaws in monetary union

Three separate events last week highlighted the extent of the economic challenges Europe faces. Firstly, the latest health check on the eurozone economy showed that growth remains chronically weak. Italy is suffering from its fifth recession in two decades, while Germany’s export-dominated economy is being hit hard by the slowdown in the global economy. Germany escaped recession only by the skin of its teeth in the second half of 2018 and early 2019 has seen little improvement. The eurozone as a whole appears to be on course to grow by 0.2% in the first three months of the year, unchanged on the last three months of 2018.

There was a brief period when heavy doses of stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) lifted the eurozone’s growth rate. But the impact of zero interest rates and the money-creation process known as quantitative easing (QE) has now worn off. A real solution to Europe’s growth problems means fixing the design flaws in monetary union, something that has been glaringly obvious since the financial crisis of a decade ago.

The lack of a political underpinning to the single currency proved costly back in 2008-09. While the US and the UK moved quickly to cut interest rates and embrace unconventional monetary policies such as QE, it took much longer for the eurozone to crank itself into gear. In part, that was due to the ultra- conservative nature of the ECB, which imported its culture from Germany’s Bundesbank, but it was also due to the fact that there was no real mechanism for taking the sort of speedy decisions made in Washington and London. Like any convoy, the eurozone moved at the speed of its slowest ship.

There were two important consequences of this: it took a lot longer for the eurozone to return to growth; and its banks were left saddled with large quantities of non-performing loans. The Americans socialised the bad debts of the big US banks, which enabled them to start lending again. Europe’s banks remain weak and highly vulnerable to another economic downturn, which is why the second significant event last week was the announcement by two of Germany’s biggest banks – Deutsche and Commerzbank – that they were in merger talks.

Italy has tired of waiting for monetary union to deliver. Its banks are in even worse shape than Germany’s, Rome has no control over monetary policy and its attempts to boost growth by running a bigger budget deficit have fallen foul of Europe’s hardline fiscal rules. Last week, Italy’s government announced it would be the first EU country to take part in China’s Belt and Road initiative – an attempt to link Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe with a series of ports, railways, bridges and other infrastructure projects. Italy’s willingness to take part in the attempt to recreate the old silk road reflects

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its desperation to revive its economy by any means available. It also reflects Europe’s diminished status in the global pecking order.

Emmanuel Macron is convinced the answer to Europe’s economic problems is closer integration. The French president wants the eurozone to have its own finance minister in charge of tax and spending policy for the single currency zone. But for the idea to catch on, Macron needs the support of Germany and Angela Merkel has not been wildly enthusiastic. It’s not hard to see why. German exporters have done well out of monetary union and Merkel knows that German taxpayers would be expected to bankroll spending in poorer eurozone countries.

Macron’s plan has a logic to it. The eurozone is a half-completed project, lacking the political structure that would give it a chance of working. What’s more, if Europe continues to underperform economically, the alternative to closer integration is disintegration. Not immediately, because returning to national currencies or moving to a hard and soft euro, would be fraught with difficulties. Crunch time will only come when the next recession blows in. It might not be all that far away.

Increased exports from the BRI will lead to a .1% worldwide growth to GDP.

Yingqun, Chen. "BRI driving world growth, connectivity, analysts say," 2019-02-19, China Daily http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/19/WS5c6b3863a3106c65c34e9fa8.html

The initiative, first proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2013, aims to build stronger links among nations across the globe.

Fabienne Bossuyt, assistant professor at Ghent University in Belgium, said the influence of the initiative will be clear in the field of connectivity in Central Asia and Europe, especially in the Balkans and in central and eastern parts of Europe.

In Central Asia, the BRI's influence also is strong in local transport infrastructure. For one, China is investing in the improvement of local roads, which is having direct economic effects and helping to increase living standards, she said.

In his new book The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World, Oxford University historian Peter Frankopan said that China has taken many steps in preparation for a more open view of the world. It has invested in many infrastructure projects, despite criticism that some haven't yet performed well financially.

"These projects, for the large part, do have the capability to raise living standards, to boost economies, to do the kinds of things that large-scale international development does," he said.

Global trade credit insurance company Euler Hermes said in a recent research report that trade in merchandise between China and other countries involved in the initiative will add $117 billion to global trade and contribute 0.3 percentage point to global trade growth this year. It would also add 0.1 percentage point to global GDP, it said.

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The report said China's exports to BRI partners may increase by $56 billion in 2019, with top export destinations including South Korea, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia.

BRI countries' exports to China are set to grow by $61 billion in 2019, driven by stronger trade integration with China, and South Korea is looking like a primary beneficiary, it said.

The BRI will also increase China's investments overseas, and markets that have benefitted the most are mainly those located in Asia and Europe, with Pakistan, Malaysia and Russia being major beneficiaries, it said.

Mahamoud Islam, senior economist for Asia at Euler Hermes, said the biggest opportunities will be in ASEAN and Eastern European markets, which have countries large enough to attract lots of interest by investors.

Economic growth in those markets is generally stronger than in other regions, and the business environment is also relatively better, which would add to investor interest, he said.

Still, the initiative's implementation will not be easy since it still needs to address challenges such as financing capabilities and legal and regulatory issues, he added.

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Further Reading

Lam, Eric. "China's BRI could increase global trade by 12%, halve trading costs: ING," June 7m 2918, Business Standard, https://www.business- standard.com/article/international/china-s-bri-could-increase-global-trade-by-12-halve- trading-costs-ing-118060700620_1.html

Policy Research Working Paper, "The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts,” April 2019, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/31543/WPS8814.pdf?s equence=6

Shen1, Simon & Chan1, Wilson. “A comparative study of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Marshall Plan,” 2017, Palgrave Communication, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0077-9

Zu, Xinhua. "Spotlight: Europeans embrace Belt and Road Initiative as mutual benefits grow," 4- 27-2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-04/27/c_138015129.htm

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Chinese Economic Growth 39

Chinese Economic Growth

On the flipside of the economic coin is the Chinese economy. This one is straight forward and it is getting stronger every day, at least every day where Trump raises tariffs. Recent economic data from the last quarter shows that consumer spending in the US is down across all sectors. What this means is that US consumers are either buying less stuff or we are buying less expensive things. Based on earnings reports from big box stores, consumer spending on household goods is down. Based on data from the technology sector, spending on big ticket electronics like the new iPhone and computers are also down. This is bad news for the Chinese who specialize in the manufacturing and sales of household items as well as consumer electronics. Data trends reflect this as well. Recently press statements from the Chinese trade ministry proclaim that the economy of China is just fine and that they are not being hurt by the ongoing trade war. However, economic data shows that they are suffering from a downturn in sales as well. This situation is only going to get worst for them as on December 15th, new tariffs will be implemented, or the current rates will go up. On September 1st, consumers saw tariffs rise to 15% on 20 billion in goods from China ranging from shoes, backpacks, household goods, and even legal pads and several brands of pens favored by debaters. On December 15th, we will see consumer electronics be put under a tariff for the first time under his presidency. This all comes right in time for the holiday shopping season. Although one of the largest economies in the world, it is not immune from recession either, and economic stagnation from across the world has put the brakes on the boom that China had experienced in terms of economic growth in the past 20 years. In the eyes of the state party, their economic power is tied to their military might and their international soft power. So any downturn in their economy now only shows a sign of weakness, it puts their dominion in Southeast Asia at risk. The BRI is their chance to make a breakout. In Europe, the Chinese hope to find a whole new host of consumers that are ready to spend their money on consumer goods that for decades were either hard to find, off limits due to political strife and division, or due to poor or outdated Soviet era infostructure, unworkable in their current forms. This point shouldn’t be consumed with national economics. Yes, several countries are on the brink of a recession, but this point is based on consumer spending and as of now, the consumer in Europe has cash and is ready to spend. In the EU, the Chinese see 500 million new consumers. All they need to reach them is a trade pact and the routes to get there. The trade pact is the BRI. Although recent agreements with Italy, Greece, and other nations show that the bloc doesn’t need to join as one, the full economic clout of the EU joining as a group would send aa message and standardize the trade process that China wishes to presume. Furthermore, the highway and shipping system that the Chinese want to establish will only work at full capacity if they can

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build it uninterrupted across the European landmass. That goal can only be accomplished if the EU joins as a bloc. On this argument, the goal should be to treat it simply. It is very straight forward. Explain things logically and use current events as a guide. By the time you read this, the trade war might have shifted dramatically. I am not an economic scholar, but I would wager that the trade war won’t be resolved before we get to our next topic nor will things get any better until after the new year. I would use this to your advantage. Point out how the Chinese are hurting just as much as the US and they need to find new markets for their goods that are sitting in warehouses in China collecting dust and becoming obsolete. Also watch for opponents that want to answer this like they would national economy advantages. Remember what I said earlier about this being about personal consumer spending not national finances. Nations can be on the brink of recession while the consumer is spending money. Be prepared to debate this at the impact level. Impact turns will be important. You might find yourself in a Chinese growth good/bad debate. Be prepared to lock in on cards and be comparative of their warrants.

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Sample Evidence

China needs EU trade for sustainable growth and to get away from the US orbit

Curtin, Horia. A PIVOT TO EUROPE: CHINA’S BELT-AND-ROAD BALANCING ACT, 2017, http://ier.gov.ro/wp-content/uploads/publicatii/Final_Policy-Brief-5_Horia-Ciurtin-A-Pivot-to- Europe_web.pdf,

Bluntly said, China must either develop internal consumption capabilities or fight its way out of the insular location that it inhabits. While the first possibility might be attractive as it would offer more stability in regard to external shocks and global crises, it requires ample internal reforms that might weaken the grasp of the Communist Party upon the Chinese society. Consolidating home markets and developing a model based on domestic consumption could generate unpredictable political effects that go hand in hand with a generalized liberalization. And that is – at the moment – unacceptable for the Communist authorities in Beijing.3 Therefore, the only viable solution is – on the short-term – to maintain and increase a high export rate, doubled by outward investments meant to ensure the stability of the trade flux and its necessary logistic needs. As competition on the low-wage production scene is increasing, not allowing China to remain the sole relevant inexpensive manufacturer on the global arena, Beijing is forced to secure an upper hand in the trade patterns that are emerging, both in terms of quality and of logistics. In this first sense, China is already implementing medium and long-term reforms meant to increase its general competitiveness by developing a “more balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth”.4 Moreover, the basic productiveness is sought to be accompanied by technical innovation, transforming China in a knowledge-based economy over time. On the other hand, on the logistical end, its quest must be to transform the Far East in a reality not so far away. To make China not only low-cost, but also short-distance. And that is why China is looking westward to its natural destination market: Europe. It must ensure that its products are the first to arrive to the largest trade partner from its international portfolio. And that it can first benefit from European know-how in order to increase its own innovative capacity. In a certain sense, as the United States are pivoting to Asia across the Pacific, China is pivoting to Europe across the “Eurasian”5 landmass. This balancing act is meant to ensure a greater connectivity with the European markets and a trade path secure from America’s long reach.

BRI is a boom to the economy of China through trade and science

Kulkarni, Sneha. What bearing does China's Belt and Road Initiative have on science? 7-31, 19, https://www.editage.com/insights/what-bearing-does-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-have-on-science

Over the past few years, China’s focus on scientific and technological advancement has catapulted the country to the top spot for publishing the most amount of scientific literature. Economically, China is

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one of the fastest growing countries in the world but has faced a slump in the last decade. To boost the economy, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China’s most ambitious project the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the One Belt One Road Initiative, in 2013. In this post, let's understand what this project is and the impact it has had on global science.

What is the Belt and Road Initiative?

The BRI is a huge venture undertaken by China to transform the global infrastructure and trade networks by connecting Asia with Europe and Africa. The initiative is Xi’s vision to recreate the old Silk Route as the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” and it is estimated to cost upwards of $1 trillion in investments as participating countries would need to build highways, railways, pipelines, etc. And China is providing substantial funding to carry out these projects. This massive project is planned to span from 2013 to 2049. Moreover, the geographical scope of the BRI covers over 70 countries, several of which have already pledged their support to China.

How is science a part of the Belt and Road Initiative?

While trade lies at the core of the BRI, China asserts that science is an important aspect of their plans. Bai Chunli, President of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) who is also spearheading the scientific component of the BRI, stated that, “Science, technology and innovation are the core driving force for the BRI development.”

China has been working closely with the countries participating in the BRI to help them achieve their research goals. The country has assisted in the opening of nine research and training centers in Africa, South America, as well as central, south, and southeast Asia. Some of these initiatives include co- sponsoring the launch of research centers in Pakistan and co-funding some studies in Sri Lanka.

CAS is playing a crucial role in the BRI and has invested over 1.8 billion yuan ($268 million) toward the “construction of science and technology projects” in association with the BRI. It is not only signing collaborative projects with several participating countries but also training researchers for these projects.

Many of the countries China is funding and collaborating with (such as Chile, Argentina, Sri Lanka, etc.) have low or middle income levels. In fact, there are hardly any developing countries which China has not tapped into. “Our overseas joint laboratories and projects have also greatly improved the research capabilities of those countries,” said Cao Jinghua, Director of International Cooperation with CAS

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China’s growth doesn’t benefit other countries

Jonathan Holslag, 2019, The Silk Road Trap: How China's Trade Ambitions Challenge Europe

Sample of the book found on:

https://books.google.com/books?id=YjaPDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT26&lpg=PT26&dq=the+trade+deficit+is+sm all+compared+with+the+total+economic+production.+The+trade+deficit+with+China+on+average+equa ls+about+1+per+cent+of+the+GDP+of+European+countries.+This+is+small+but+significant,+and+in+mo st+cases+it+adds+up+to+a+bigger+overall+deficit.+Equally+problematic+is+the+idea+that+China+spurs +global+growth+and+thus+also&source=bl&ots=fUoKaXrHZX&sig=ACfU3U0XxNNwJUNpTCeorAnG04HF KSkpUg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwij5pLGq5_kAhVCmK0KHf2VDzoQ6AEwDHoECAkQAQ#v=onepage& q=the%20trade%20deficit%20is%20small%20compared%20with%20the%20total%20economic%20prod uction.%20The%20trade%20deficit%20with%20China%20on%20average%20equals%20about%201%20p er%20cent%20of%20the%20GDP%20of%20European%20countries.%20This%20is%20small%20but%20si gnificant%2C%20and%20in%20most%20cases%20it%20adds%20up%20to%20a%20bigger%20overall%2 0deficit.%20Equally%20problematic%20is%20the%20idea%20that%20China%20spurs%20global%20gro wth%20and%20thus%20also&f=false

Another assertion: the trade deficit is small compared with the total economic production. The trade deficit with China on average equals about 1 per cent of the GDP of European countries. This is small but significant, and in most cases it adds up to a bigger overall deficit. Equally problematic is the idea that China spurs global growth and thus also demand for European export goods indirectly. China’s rise, it could be assumed, has led to higher global commodity prices, which in turn has spurred growth in countries that export raw materials and consequently might increase their demand for European exports. Yet China’s impact on third markets of European countries cannot be positive as long as China runs an overall surplus, including with many countries that produce raw materials. In such a case, China essentially destroys external demand in third countries. Furthermore, the eventual gains on the current account from more exports to research-rich countries are offset by the losses on the current account as European countries pay more for imported raw materials, including fuel. One last remark on this topic: China has also done a lot to control the prices of raw materials, for instance by expanding the supply of those goods by investing more in upstream activities and hoarding strategic stockpiles

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Further Reading

Congressional Research Service, “China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States,” June 25, 2019"," CRS https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33534.pdf

Mingjiang, Li. “China’s “One Belt, One Road” Initiative: New Round of Opening Up?” 2015, RSIS Commentary, https://dr.ntu.edu.sg/bitstream/handle/10220/39874/CO15050.pdf?sequence=1

Stewart, Jan. "The BRI shows China’s emergence as a global economic power," June 10, 2019, Reaction, https://reaction.life/the-bri-shows-chinas-emergence-as-a-global-economic- power/

Will, Beijing. "“Chinese companies are clearly the main beneficiaries of BRI projects”," April 24, 2019, MERICS, https://www.merics.org/en/china-flash/chinese-companies-are-clearly- main-beneficiaries-bri-projects

Yu, Shirley Z. “Belt and Road Initiative: Defining China’s Grand Strategy and the Future World Order,” Harvard University, March 2018, https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/37799759/YU-DOCUMENT- 2018.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF 5G Technology 45

5G Technology

This argument came out as one of the first arguments that camps taught to their students. It also was one of the first arguments that students tended to abandon for arguments that went towards the economy or international relations. The simple reason that this was is that it is a hard argument to wrap your head around and then explain in a debate round. Even in a world where the summary is three minutes long, it still takes more time and effort to coherently explain why the judge is going to vote on 5G technology over economic collapse or human rights. However, I think that if done correctly and simply, it can be done. Just note that it is going to take time to invest into this argument in terms of the upfront work that will need to be done researching as well as in round to make sure you are being as efficient as you can in your blocks. Right now, almost every cell phone that is on the market is based on LTE technology. This technology is the industry standard and allows the general consumer to stream movies, music, and share files at rates comparable to being connected a wired high-speed modem. A decade ago, I would never have thought I would be able to have seamless video chats with my students while they were in camp on the East coast while on a cell phone connection, but this summer that very situation happened. But the wheels of technology don’t stand still, and the next generation of wireless networks is coming. Development of 5G technology has reached a stage where cell phone makers have started adopting it into their next generation phones. 5G functions with two main differences over the LTE networks of today. First, it uses a narrower bandwidth of data which means it can send and receive signals in places where old cell phones might have had issues. For instance, there are a set of classrooms at my building that I can’t get more than a 3G strength signal in because of the bricks. A 5G connection would likely be able to get out just fine. Second, the data rates are increased. In early testing, a 5G connection can get a hundred megabits per second data transfer rate better than the standard LTE. This means that any lag or hang ups in video or audio are caused by your phone’s processor speed and not the network. This pertains to the BRI as the Chinese have added aa third prong to their concept of “highways.” The third prong is digital. In the year 2019, the sharing of data is a both a figurative and a literal form of currency. Data connects the world via knowledge, entertainment, business, and thanks to the cryptocurrency market and the banking industry, financially. When the sharing of data could mean the difference between life and death for a patient waiting diagnostics from a surgeon that is halfway around the world, or the transmission of critical counterterrorism information that might stop the next 9/11, every second will count. In rural areas of the world where it is impossible to run fiberoptic lines or cable networks, 5G network towers become a cheap alternative for data transmission.

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF 46

The reason that this point has come up is that the biggest maker of 5G networks is Huawei. This is the same company that has been blacklisted in the US for stealing trade secrets from other technology companies. In Europe however, there is no blacklist and in the countries that have already joined the BRI, the 5G network has already begun to be assembled. The largest example is in Italy where China has used their influence to create a monopoly over the 5G market and expand out. As more and more countries sign on, China is there to sell them phones with the new tech installed and towers that can transmit the 5G data rates. People might be thinking, with thee positives listed above, why would anyone want to reject the 5G networks? The answer is twofold. First is economic domination. Under the BRI, China uses its influence and loan agreements to create monopolies in the places that join. This means that competition is nonexistent for competition. Having total control over the towers might not be as bad of an issue but it is compounded by the fact that the phones that connect to the 5G networks, and the computer enabled network cards, and the SIM chips, and the hot spots, and tablets that are enabled for network use are almost completely made in China by Chinese companies. China has cornered the market on 5G and the BRI expansion of 5G into Europe only means that they gain access to another 500 million consumers. The second issue is security and privacy. It is no secret that the Chinese might be allies in many regards, but every nation is always looking for a trump card over other countries (pun not intended.) In this case, information, both personal and state is what the Chinese want. With the expansion of the high-speed networks, China would monitor the networks and internet usage of millions of people. Their browsing habits and shopping habits would be available to these private Chinese companies to market and sell to advertising firms, big box marts, and other institutions that use consumer data to drive profits. Furthermore, as governments also use these networks, or government employees use devices with this technology installed, they become open to hacking by Chinese agents seeking information on state data. Even if the United States creates our own 5G network independent of China, we are still at risk as our diplomats will have to travel overseas and as we share and send information to our European allies, we open the door for it to be taken upon arrival. Like I said at the start of this section, the ability to explain this argument is what will win you’re the round. I love technology. I build all of my own computers. I think the topic area for Nov/Dec is amazing. I spent all summer trying to grasp this argument. It’s not easy. Not imagine your judge is not experienced in the world of technology. No matter how smart they are, if you get up and start throwing around technical data or terms without context, you will see a judge do a Windows style blue screen. In this regard, remember the words of Einstein. “If you can’t explain it simply, you can’t explain it.”

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF 47

Sample Evidence

European nations feeling the monopoly of Chinese 5G networks. The Chinese reach is growing larger every day

CNBC, “EU demands scrutiny of 5G risks but no bloc-wide Huawei ban,” March 27, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/eu-demands-scrutiny-of-5g-risks-but-no-bloc-wide-huawei- ban.html

EU nations will be required to share data on 5G cybersecurity risks and produce measures to tackle them by the end of the year, the European Commission said on Tuesday, shunning U.S. calls to ban China’s Huawei Technologies across the bloc.

The aim is to use tools available under existing security rules plus cross-border cooperation, the bloc’s executive body said, leaving it to individual EU countries to decide whether they want to ban any company on national security grounds.

Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, the Netherlands, Lithuania and Portugal are all preparing to auction 5G licenses this year while six other countries will do so next year.

The European Union move came despite U.S. pressure to boycott Huawei, citing fears of China using the company’s equipment for espionage. Huawei has strongly rejected the allegations and launched a lawsuit against the U.S. government.

The EU provided additional detail on the plans first reported by Reuters on March 22, with European digital chief Andrus Ansip saying that the measures announced on Tuesday aimed to address concerns about foreign governments using companies for espionage.

Last week French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe was wakening up to potential Chinese dominance in the region.

Ansip said that 5G technology would transform the economy and society, but that this cannot happen without full security built in.

“It is therefore essential that 5G infrastructures in the EU are resilient and fully secure from technical or legal backdoors,” Ansip said in a statement.

EU countries have until the end of June to assess cybersecurity risks related to 5G, leading to a bloc-wide assessment by Oct. 1. Using this, EU countries would then have to agree measures to mitigate risks by the end of the year.

Such measures could include certification requirements and tests of products or suppliers regarded as potential security risks. The bloc will decide by Oct. 1, 2020, whether to take further action.

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The EU has already passed a new law to give permanent status to the EU Cybersecurity Agency and to guide on cybersecurity certification.

Huawei described the EU’s approach as objective and proportionate. Its comments were echoed by telecoms lobby group GSMA, which includes 300 operators worldwide, while the European Telecommunications Network Operators Association emphasized the importance of a fact-based and harmonized policy.

Deutsche Telekom, meanwhile, said it is open to exchanging data with other operators to improve network security as the industry moves towards super-fast 5G technology.

Each morning, the “Beyond the Valley” newsletter brings you all the latest from the vast, dynamic world of tech – outside the Silicon Valley.

Large telecoms operators, which view 5G as the next big moneyspinner, oppose a Huawei ban, saying that such a move could set back 5G deployment by years.

World No.1 telecoms equipment maker Huawei, which competes with Sweden’s Ericsson and Finnish company Nokia, faces intense scrutiny in the West over its relationship with the Chinese government and U.S.-led allegations that its equipment could be used for spying.

Australia and New Zealand have stopped operators using Huawei equipment in their 5G networks.

But in a separate boost for Huawei on Tuesday, it was announced that Bahrain, headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, plans to roll out a commercial 5G mobile network by June, partly using Huawei technology

European nations are rejecting the US;’s call for a 5G boycott. Security reports from several EU countries show no risk of hacking

Stratfor Assessments, "Why Europe Won't Shut the Door on Huawei," 6-13-2019, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/why-europe-wont-shut-door-huawei

The United States and China are in the midst of a tech war, and Europe's caught dead center. In its push to stem Beijing's expanding global influence, Washington has pressured its European allies to sever their ties with Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, which it accuses of being a Trojan horse for Beijing's government to spy on other countries. But while some members of the European Union have been more receptive to U.S. pressure, none so far have succumbed fully to the United States' plea to ban Huawei from participating in the development of their 5G networks.

That's not to say EU countries haven't taken heed of Washington's concerns about the Chinese company, or that U.S. accusations haven't marred Huawei's reputation among European consumers and companies. But Huawei's already sizable presence in EU markets — combined with its expertise in the 5G space — will make it a tempting option for European countries looking to capitalize on the next- generation technology as quickly and easily as possible.

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Several European countries are slated to auction off licenses for the development of their national 5G mobile communications networks this year. This includes Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Greece, Hungary, Ireland and Portugal — with many more to follow in 2020. The United States' crackdown on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, meanwhile, is forcing these countries to reconsider whether to include the company in their lineup of potential 5G partners.

Most EU member states share at least some of the United States' concerns about allowing a Chinese company to participate in the development of technology as sensitive as 5G, which could theoretically give Beijing access to personal data from EU users and, in extreme cases, expose their critical infrastructure to sabotage. In response, several European countries are taking steps to gauge the potential security risks of partnering with Huawei.

A March report by the United Kingdom's Huawei Cyber Security Evaluation Centre Oversight Board warned that "significant technical issues" associated with some of Huawei's equipment could create security vulnerabilities for British companies. However, the report did not find any evidence that Huawei was deliberately carrying out any kind of espionage on behalf of the Chinese government. A recent report by Belgium's center for cybersecurity also found no evidence that Huawei equipment could be used for spying. The Netherlands' national intelligence agency is currently investigating whether Huawei is using secret back doors to access customer data, though the results remain outstanding. But despite Europe's many concerns about Huawei, no country has yet to automatically side with the White House and outright ban the Chinese company.

China has the most experience in the wireless game and any delay in using their network would cause major delays overall

Stratfor Assessments, "Why Europe Won't Shut the Door on Huawei," 6-13-2019, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/why-europe-wont-shut-door-huawei

Is Huawei the Only Way for Europe?

Naturally, costs and expertise will be key factors in these kinds of business decisions. Huawei is already a key player in existing 4G wireless networks across Europe, and replacing the company with new providers for 5G could be expensive and lead to delays in the implementation of the technology. Germany's Deutsche Telekom recently warned that if Huawei was barred from participating in the development of the country's 5G networks, the implementation of the technology could be delayed for years — and as a result, Germany would lag behind its competitors in the development of "connected" factories.

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But on a larger scale, Huawei is also one of the world's most cost-competitive and experienced telecommunications companies. Thus, many countries that already use Huawei's equipment for 4G may ultimately decide that the easiest, cheapest and fastest route is to continue using the Chinese company for their 5G networks. But even then, they'll probably still introduce some restrictions, or at least additional controls, on the company — both to appease the United States, and to address domestic concerns about the security implications of such a crucial technology.

Further Reading

Brattberg, Erik. "Should Europe Buy Chinese 5G Technology?," 3-18-2019, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/03/18/should-europe- buy-chinese-5g-technology-pub-78610

Chanda, Nayan. "Coming: Digital BRI – How China’s growing 5G clout could soon enable it to play Big Brother to the world," 5-4-2019, Times of India Blog, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/coming-digital-bri-how-chinas- growing-5g-clout-could-soon-enable-it-to-play-big-brother-to-the-world

Reconnecting Asia, "China's BRI To Promote 5G," 8-31-2018, https://reconnectingasia.csis.org/analysis/entries/chinas-bri-promote-5g/

Satake, Minoru. "Europe adopts Huawei gear into 5G networks over US objections," 5-16-2019, Nikkei Asian Review, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/5G-networks/Europe-adopts- Huawei-gear-into-5G-networks-over-US-objections

Welle, Deutsche. "Will China's 5G 'digital Silk Road' lead to an authoritarian future for the internet?," DW News Service, https://www.dw.com/en/will-chinas-5g-digital-silk-road- lead-to-an-authoritarian-future-for-the-internet/a-48497082

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International Relations

This is another part of the topic that followed a predictable line when it was announced. The basic writings when you first do a search for the BRI is based on Xi and his attempts to maintain power and control. Second you get power projection across Asia. Third, you get counterbalancing the United States. Where the topic wasn’t predicted to go was to look at the areas of the South and East China Seas as flashpoints in water shipping. Nor were teams expecting to find arguments on how India was feeling isolated by the BRI and how European expansion would only further drive this feeling. I believe that in the area of international relations, we have the greatest number of undiscovered arguments. First is Russia. The argument is that with the shipping routes to the north in the Arctic Ocean and in the south through the former Soviet nations, Russia feels like it is being encircled by a counterbalancing force that is looking to push back against years of Russian domination in Asia. The fear is that Russia will drive conflict and even potentially attack the BRI transit lines. Second, you have the issue of international terrorism. If we pretend that the BRI has been built and you have millions of dollars in goods flowing across Asia, it is impossible to provide security for enough of the route to deter an attack. With so many miles of the BRI transiting through the wilderness and remote areas of countries where the closes military of police aid is hours away, attacks could be likely. You also have the issue of land piracy except that it would be far easier to accomplish. You have the issue with how the United States will view the BRI in Europe. Many scholars wager that if the EU joins as a union, President Trump will extend the trade war to the European continent. This would either force a concession and they would withdraw from the BIR which would kill solvency or they would join the trade war and then there would be an issue of global economic stability as a two front trade war opens with the three largest economics in the world.

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XI Power

According the governing documents of the Communist party of China, power in the state is divided between two main bodies. The first is the state general assembly and their leader, the general secretary. The second is the presidency with the leader being the President. There are strict rules set forth to both the election, age limits, and term limits that the two leaders of China must adhere to. Of the two, the general secretary possesses the most power as they control what most of us would call the “party” or in short, they are the head of the communist party. They run the general assembly, which functions similar to the congress of the United States. It is through the general assembly and the general secretary that the President is chosen. The President represents the state in all negotiations, diplomatic affairs, is the figurehead of the state, and provides the face of the state for the world to see. Xi is the President of China. Xi is currently facing several constitutional threats to his presidency. The first is the age limit. To serve as president, one must be elected before they turn 68. Second, one can only serve for two terms. Xi is currently serving his first term. There is a catch to this, however. According to the constitution of China, the general assembly may suspend either clause of the presidential limitation as stated above for any reason. For Xi, the first hurdle he must pass is the age limit. Once that is passed, he can turn to the term limits. This brings us to the issue of the BRI. When the BRI was announced, it was one of the world’s most ambitious building and economic projects that had ever been announced. Xi put a lot of political capital and economic capital into this. But in his eyes, the payout is second to none. If he can become the President that unites the world under a Chinese economic flag, he will have the power with the party to go to the general assembly to ask for both an age extension as well as a term limit extension. In the summer of 2018, Xi was able to convince the ruling party that to remove the term limits at least temporarily. Due to a rising economic boost from increased international trade and partially due to the unity fostered by the expansion of the BRI to over 150 nations, Xi was able to use his political capital to negotiate with the state party. They agreed but they stated that they would address the issue of the age limit to the presidency as well as the issue of reinstating the terms limits at a future date. This is a signal to Xi that although he was able to “win” this battle, he is still at the whim of the ruling party and at any moment, should he falter in his ability to deliver for the state, he is out. So the BRI is Xi’s path to power. It is also his path to consolidation of power. When he was first elected president, he faced criticism as a weak leader who was soft spoken and who had been given the position by a sympathetic general assembly because of his age. This put Xi on the offensive from day 1. He came into office with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove to the world. He has big and ambitious plans. So far, we’ve seen this in how he has dealt with the building of artificial islands in the South China Sea, how he has dealt with North Korea

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and Japan, how he has negotiated trade deals with regional actors, and recently, his firm stance against Trump in the Sino-US Trade War. In the process of building the BRI, Xi is silencing the nay-sayers who said he would be a lame duck. He is attempting to further the economic interests of China while expanding the reach of Chinese influence. On this point, debaters from the start of camp were looking at Xi power as an argument. However, too few teams ran this as a legitimate argument simply because teams couldn’t explain the link story as to WHY Xi needed this. Few debaters understood the idea that Xi was facing removal due to age limits in three years nor did many debaters understand that until his economic expansion projects, Xi was an unpopular president. I believe that if teams can adequately explain in the summary the link story, judges will buy the argument simply because it is a true fact and it makes logical sense. That is why reading up and knowing as much as you can about the how the state party runs the Chinese government is tantamount to the win. Furthermore, winning a good impact provides an insurance policy for the times when a judge wants more. There is a whole host of arguments on this that point to Xi good and bad. A lot of the literature now is being written about the trade war and whether Xi will look to escalate it or not. However, there has been articles written about Xi and human rights, military power projection, North Korea, and more. There virtually is no argument that doesn’t have a converse in the Xi power debate. The key is to find one that you and your partner know, can really enjoy reading about, and can articulate in round.

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Sample Evidence

China’s rise and spread of policies like the BRI is not to help the world but to further China’s ruling party’s policy. Even if this policy is bad, the party is the supreme authority and must be spread

As China’s growing global role and increasingly hardline policies at home and abroad gain attention, the United States and other Western governments are also taking notice of China’s expanding influence in developing countries. The implications of China’s growing investments linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its ambitious global infrastructure and connectivity program, are increasingly debated. So, too, are the nature of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) efforts to popularize its authoritarian model and undermine developing democracies around the world, whether intentionally or indirectly.[1] In November, Vice President Pence noted that the administration, through its Indo-Pacific strategy, intends to bolster the rule of law and human rights in regional countries facing growing influence from China.

Such attention is welcome, and it has spurred numerous analyses on the drivers of China’s growing influence efforts, with most focused on external factors in Beijing’s calculus. China seeks influence due to many geostrategic considerations, such as the protection of sea lanes critical for the transport of energy and the establishment of military facilities to protect China’s growing global interests. However, much of the foundation for China’s growing influence in developing countries is found inside China, where the CCP faces a mounting set of challenges to its rule that dominate its attention. As Washington considers how best to address China’s push for influence across the developing world, it is critical to have a clear understanding of the domestic imperatives at play.

Studies addressing internal drivers of China’s growing influence abroad have centered on the implications of President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power since late 2012. Indeed, as others note in this series, it is tempting to ascribe the aggressive turn in Chinese foreign policy entirely to Xi, who has brought China closer to one-man rule than it has been in decades. Xi has centralized power across all policy domains, including foreign affairs.[2] Xi has used this power at the apex of foreign policymaking to accelerate China’s push for influence in the developing world.

Xi’s centralization of power, however, has been more an accelerant than the main driver of China’s more assertive influence efforts. It is, rather, the Party’s obsession with preserving its rule—a theme which both predated and facilitated Xi’s elevation to power in 2012—that more fundamentally drives China’s growing influence in developing countries. Mounting threats to CCP control have occupied Chinese leaders since early this century as they have come to terms with the unraveling of the core factors that characterized China’s reform era—relative political stability, ideological openness, and rapid economic

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growth. As Carl Minzner puts it, the leadership is consumed by the need to strengthen “the levees they rely on to keep the waters of a turbulent society in check.”[3] China’s rise to power won’t go away easily. China will fight to maintain control and spread their policies to the developing world

Shullman, Davi.d "Protect the Party: China’s growing influence in the developing world," 1-22-2019, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/protect-the-party-chinas-growing-influence-in-the- developing-world/

China’s push for greater influence in the developing world, therefore, is a product not only of geopolitical opportunism or aggressive policies under a more powerful Xi, but also of a more fundamental external manifestation of China’s more hardline authoritarianism at home, deemed necessary for the Party’s continued survival. Much like its approach to industrial policies deemed essential to China’s economic future, China’s tactics in the developing world are inherent to the Party’s methods to achieve China’s “rejuvenation” and ensure regime control. In other words, the problem is more dire than if it was solely a result of one man’s pursuit of unbridled power. The CCP is unlikely to be deterred from pursuing economic advantages and manipulation of information through strong criticism or appeals to universal values.[25]

China’s tactics in the developing world are inherent to the Party’s methods to achieve China’s “rejuvenation” and ensure regime control.

Furthermore, there is a good chance that Chinese leaders will become even more focused on preserving Party rule in the face of mounting challenges at home, even as China grows more powerful abroad. China’s approach to developing countries in this scenario will increasingly reflect the short-term demands of Party control rather than considerations of China’s long-term interests in a country. This would result in China seeking quick returns on investments abroad and more heavy-handed propaganda and “sharp power” efforts to shape the narrative to protect China’s interests. Chinese leaders facing growing domestic problems would be more vigilant against the “infiltration” of foreign ideology and more reliant on populist nationalism to survive, enhancing the value of information manipulation abroad.[26]

If U.S.-China ties continue to decline, Beijing will likely compensate for damage to China’s economy and look to convince the public in China that it is taking a strong role globally in the face of U.S. pressure. Chinese fears of a protracted economic struggle will propel greater focus on gaining lopsided benefits from investment in developing countries. China will increasingly cast itself as the upholder of globalization and global growth, in contrast to the Trump administration, but may also take a directly anti-U.S. approach to its information-shaping efforts as the bilateral relationship declines. The CCP is likely to redouble advocacy for China’s authoritarian development path. Longer term, Chinese leaders may respond to a bifurcating global economy and technological landscape by more proactively institutionalizing developing countries’ economic relationships with China, ensuring that if they must choose, they pick Beijing.

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Chinese economy holding back state; only way to boost economy is to open up internationally

Friedman, George. "Xi’s Strong Control Over a Weak Economy," 6-16-2016, https://geopoliticalfutures.com/xis-strong-control-over-a-weak-economy/

At one point yesterday, the Chinese yuan dipped to its weakest level against the dollar in five years. Meanwhile, former security chief Zhou Yongkang’s wife was sentenced to nine years in prison for taking bribes and his son was sentenced to 18 years. These two facts are intimately connected and revealing about the crisis facing China. Zhou was the secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission and a member of the 17th Politburo Standing Committee before he was investigated for corruption and then sentenced to life in prison in June 2015. Before that, he served as minister of public security. Zhou’s power extended into many aspects of internal security in China, including the police forces and the courts. In effect, he was in control of certain aspects of the internal security of China. Then, he was promoted to a post that included all aspects of internal security. In this post, he was one of the most trusted and powerful figures in China. Zhou was responsible for guaranteeing the security of the regime. Now, he and his family are in prison. The anti-corruption campaign behind Zhou’s imprisonment is closely related to the decline of the yuan. The dominant reason for the decline of the yuan is concern, particularly inside China, about the decline of the Chinese economy and the weakness of the Chinese financial system. There have been moves inside and outside of China to convert yuan into a more secure currency, depressing its price. The government may also be willing to allow the yuan to decline. China’s primary chance for economic recovery is through increasing exports and investment. China has a twin problem in doing this. First, the global economy is sluggish at best, and there is little appetite for new exports. Second, Chinese manufactured goods have suffered from inflation, while new producers have entered the market. China is simply not competitive in many areas it once dominated. It can’t do much about demand, but it can reduce price by devaluing the yuan. Of course, devaluing the yuan increases the cost of imports and fuels inflation. It would be at best a very short-term maneuver. But China now has only two kinds of maneuvers left economically – short term and long term. Everything in the middle is slipping out of the control of the Chinese state. At a certain point, economic solutions cease to be practical in any reasonable period of time and the problem becomes political. China is under enormous economic pressure. How can the regime survive this pressure? In the century between when the British forced China to open to international trade and when Mao Zedong consolidated power and closed China off, its governing model was regional. The emperor lost the ability to control China, and it fragmented into regions, each controlled by leaders (called warlords by the West) with their own armies. So while a highly international China is one model, another model is a fragmented China, torn by internal conflict. In China’s massive economic downturn, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is certainly aware of the alternative. The downturn has increased regional tension. In particular, the coastal region that has flourished through integration into international trade faces an interior region that has not benefited from this integration and that will inevitably view the coastal region as more interested in its international connections than in China. Mao took advantage of this same orientation on the coast by making the long march to the interior, raising a peasant army and crushing the leaders – and foreign powers – that dominated the coast. He extended the poverty of the interior to the coast, but created a unified China. Chinese President Xi Jinping is dealing with the economic crisis in two ways. He is trying to find some sort of solution to it, particularly hoping that international demand increases. This is not within his control. What he can do is strengthen the Communist Party’s control over the country. To do that he must increase his control over the party. Like China, the party is divided by economic interests. Deng Xiaoping told the party members to “enrich” themselves as he struggled to break free of Maoism, and that is what the party leaders have done. To get control of the party he must suppress factionalism. To do that he must make it clear that self-enrichment is no longer an acceptable strategy. To do that he must change the rules and declare self-enrichment to be corruption. By some international standards it was corruption. By China’s standards it was the norm. It can no longer be the norm because wealth can challenge the party’s authority. By arresting Zhou, Xi took power away from a man who had accumulated not only power but wealth. This demonstrated that no one is safe from the party’s power. By sending his wife and son to prison, Xi made it clear that the risks that some are taking are not only their risks, but their families’ as well. That changes the equation dramatically. Xi is struggling to curb the power of wealth in the party. He knows he can’t eliminate it, but he can force it to align with his own will by imposing devastating sentences on those who might resist – and not only on those that do. The point is that if Zhou and his family can be crushed, anyone can be crushed. Like other countries under economic pressure, the choice is between shattering the system or holding together through fear. Xi has few other options. There are those who say Xi has become powerful. That is true, but powerful over an increasingly weak center. As the yuan falls, that center becomes weaker, and Xi must become more oppressive. It is less important to oppress the countryside than his comrades, where the real threat exists. It is purely coincidental that Zhou’s family was sentenced and the yuan declined at the same time. The two events have no direct connection. But they symbolize China’s real choices.

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Further Reading

Kewalramani, Manoj. "The vulnerabilities of Xi Jinping and China's Communist Party," 3-10- 2018, Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/vulnerabilities-xi-jinping- china-communist-party-180309141431670.html

Masters, Jonathan. "Xi Jinping's Economic Reforms and Consolidation of Power," 1-29-2015, Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/event/xi-jinpings-economic-reforms- and-consolidation-power-0

Saran, Samir. "Making China great again: Xi grabs power to resolve current contradictions, but could trigger new ones?," 3-30-2018, Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/making-china- great-again-xi-grabs-power-to-resolve-current-contradictions-but-could-trigger-new- ones/articleshow/63544514.cms?from=mdr

Shullman, David. "Protect the Party: China’s growing influence in the developing world," 1-22- 2019, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/protect-the-party-chinas-growing- influence-in-the-developing-world/

Stowell, Joshua. "Xi Jinping's Consolidation of Power a Signal of Impending Economic Crisis," 8- 25-2019, Global Security Review, https://globalsecurityreview.com/china-xi-jinping- consolidates-power-china-reasserts-abroad/

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF SCS/ECS 58

SCS/ECS

For students that debated the LOST topic last year, it’s back. This argument is back. The crux of this argument is that the water route that China seeks to use as a major shipping waterway through to ports in the Middle East along the Persian Gulf and in Africa, Australia, and South America will be most directly suited to going through the region of the world known as the South China Sea.

Image from https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/South-China-Sea-political-map.htm Under international law, this region is divided by the nations that share a water boundary with it up to 200 miles from their coast as their exclusive economic zone. This is where the Law of the Sea debate topic from one year ago returns as it was the Law of the Sea Treaty that set the guidelines for this 200-mile zone. However, China has not acceded to this treaty and thus does not recognize the concept of the 200-mile limit. Furthermore, China feels that the rise of blue water piracy might spill over from the shores of Africa into this region and thus, they have begun to send military escorts with their container ships. Other nations in the region are rightfully worried about a large military power sending heavily armed naval ships through the waters around their countries. Finally, we reach the issue of the artificial islands that China has been constructing. Their solution to the 200-mile economic zone argument is that if their control more land, then there is no place in the sea that is not within their zone. Rather than claim new and undiscovered islands, they have been building artificial islands out of rock, stone, and floating platforms. The largest of these islands are now large enough to house a full garrison of naval warships. In order to quiet international fears, the Chinese government has declared that these islands are being used as refueling and supply stations for their shipping industry along the waterway for the BRI and since the military is escorting the ships, they are free to use these stations as well. It’s a mask that no one in the region is believing.

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In a debate round, the argument on the SES functions that by joining the BRI, the EU would greatly increase trade. Since the highway that the Chinese hope to complete won’t be completed for years, trade in the foreseeable future will need to be done by water shipping. This will drive up the number of ships passing through the South China Sea and increasing the chances that there will be a clash of nations and armed conflict. On the East China Sea, the argument shifts slightly. In the region, the East China Sea is almost undistinguishable from the South China Sea. The best way to describe it is that the ECS is the strip of water closest to mainland China.

Image from http://www.bluebird-electric.net/oceanography/East_China_Sea.htm Politically, it effects fewer countries. It also avoids arguments that involve the artificial islands, rare earth minerals, and deep-water piracy. This area was so mundane that most debaters at their camps chose to lump their answers to the ECS in with the SCS, and that is if they heard arguments specific to the ECS. However, recent current events have magnified the impact to this and I believe that now, the ECS might be a viable independent argument. The reason is Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a small mass of land that sits as a peninsula off of the Southeastern coast of China. During the first and second Opium Wars, the area was first used as a staging area for the British trading fleet, then the British war fleet, then as a garrison for the fleeing British until reinforcements could be assembled for a counteroffensive. During this last phase, the area was declared an independent territory from China with British sovereign control. Talks began in 1982 after then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher visited the island and met with a Chinese delegation to discuss control of the area. By the 1990’s, a framework had been established that would end British control and return Hong Kong to China.

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At midnight on July 1st, 1997, under the gaze of the world, the British signed the document giving full and total control to the region and then set sail out of the harbor. During the transition, the biggest concern for the people living in Hong Kong was the transition from a British democracy to the communist state system of Chinese government. Over the course of the next half decade, tension built up as the government of China imposed new rules on the civilians living in Hong Kong. Restrictions on free speech, free travel, trade, and police brutality all were at the forefront of the complaints. These issues would gain steam and, in the summer of 2019, after a series of crackdowns on the student free press and several incidents of police brutality, people began to protest. As of early September, the protests have gained worldwide attention and show little sign of ending. This directly effects the BRI for two main reasons. First is that due to the occupation by the Western nations for almost 150 years, Hong Kong has been a business center for both Chinese and Western industry. This is where the powerful and rich some to sign business deals and almost certainly this is where deals that involve the BRI would be hashed out. Second, as this region lies adjacent to the ECS, the Hong Kong people, whether under British rule or under Chinese control, have always been wary of the massive movement of military vessels around their city. Not only would the BRI increase this movement, the Chinese have plans to use the cut as a dock for their cargo ships and a refueling center for the military escorts. When debating the SCS and ECS is to remember the “why” of the conflict. Ships move around the ocean every day, all day. You need to explain to the judge why these regions of the world are unique to conflict. To do this, you need to articulate why other nations care that there are Chinese destroyers off their coast and why this is such an offense. To do this, it will be necessary to dust off the files from last year and at least do some refresher reading in the files as to what the zones of LOST are and why people care so much about them. Whether you pull those cards to read in case or in rebuttals is up to you, but you need to be able to explain these arguments to judges. You also need to be able to articulate why the EU joining would increase the conflict. To do this, it will be important to understand why the land route doesn’t solve or at least why it won’t solve right away. You also need to be able to show a marked increase in trade that would occur when Europe joins.

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Sample Evidence

If China expands it’s forces in the South China Sea, the will move to counter with their navy. Conflict will ensue

Nakayama, Yasunori. "China’s claims on the South China Sea are a warning to Europe," 4-7-2019, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/1ab003c8-5790-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1

While the European Commission is wrestling over China’s efforts to draw European countries into joining its Belt and Road Initiative, a similar set of issues deserve attention on the other side of the world

President Xi Jinping secured deals involving several ports in Italy during an official visit last month, giving China a key maritime and transcontinental gateway into Europe. Meanwhile, China has been conducting legal warfare to consolidate its excessive claims to vast sections of the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways.

China’s latest investments in Trieste, on the northern Adriatic Sea, and Genoa, Italy’s biggest seaport, add to a growing network of seaports and maritime trade routes that include stakes in the Greek port of Piraeus, run by Chinese shipping giant Cosco. In Israel, China is building two ports. It has opened its first naval base overseas in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, strategically situated in sea lanes between Asia- Europe trade routes.

A few deals here, a few deals there, and it’s often so low key that many fail to grab attention. It’s only when the dots are joined that the wider picture emerges. In the case of China’s ambition to become a global naval superpower, there are important political and security implications for Europe and the US

The creeping expansion of China’s presence in the South China Sea should provide a sobering lesson for Europe.

For decades, there have been overlapping claims to the islands, reefs and underwater shoals of the South China Sea involving China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei. China claims more than 80 per cent of the sea, which is home to more than 200 specks of land and vast gas and oil reserves, arguing that it has “historic rights” over the area under customary international law. It insists that these rights supersede the rights enjoyed by other coastal countries under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).

In 2016, the South China Sea Arbitration ruled that the nine-dash line — a geographical marker China invoked to assert its claims — was contrary to the Unclos. This, however, has not dimmed China’s ambitions

Since then, Beijing has constructed military installations on artificial islands it has created in disputed waters, populating them with advanced surface-to-air missiles and airfields that can support bombers.

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As of last week, since the start of this year, some 200 Chinese ships, believed to be part of China’s sea militia, have been spotted near the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island, fuelling further tensions.

We should pay close attention to China’s practice of declaring straight baselines around outlying archipelagos. In 1996, it declared that it was adopting straight baselines around the outer islands of the Paracel Islands chain. It has continued to claim these rights, despite the arbitration panel’s decision that it was not entitled to do so, chiefly because China is not recognised by the Unclos as an archipelagic state.

Nonetheless, the recent publication of The South China Sea Arbitration Awards: A Critical Study by the Chinese Society of International Law has raised the stakes further, by arguing that “the regime of continental states’ outlying archipelagos is not addressed by the convention [on the law of the sea]”. By this line of thinking, the study seeks to claim that “customary” international law instead allows continental states to draw and claim straight baselines to offshore archipelagos.

This claim has significant implications for the Spratly Islands. Named after the British whaling captain who sighted them in 1843, the Spratlys are one of the major archipelagos in the South China Sea, scattered over a wide area. If China declared straight baselines around the Spratly Islands, vast sections of the South China Sea would become Chinese internal waters, and China would be able to restrict the navigation of foreign vessels.

A third of the world’s shipping — trillions of dollars worth of international trade — passes through the South China Sea, so restricting the right of free passage would have a significant effect on global commerce. In fact, the Chinese Society of International Law study suggests that China may try to enforce a rule that freedom of navigation could be based on the “self-restraint or custom” of coastal states.

The dispute has drawn the attention of the Trump administration. The US Navy has stepped up freedom of navigation operations in the region, challenging China’s claims in the sea. Britain also has shown its willingness to commit itself to protecting high seas freedom in the South China Sea: on February 11, Gavin Williamson, the UK defence secretary, said it would deploy its new flagship carrier, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, to the South China Sea.

Beijing continues to assert that it adheres to the Unclos and respects the rule of law at sea. However, there are reasons to doubt whether this is the case. At a conference in Kyoto in March, Paul Reichler, chief counsel for the Philippines in the South China Sea case, noted that “from Japan’s perspective, but it would be a perspective that I share, China has adopted some extremely self-serving and almost implausible interpretations of Unclos”.

Established rules and structures of the international maritime system are increasingly under threat. During a symposium in London in February, Professor Atsuko Kanehara of Sophia University, Tokyo, noted that the way in which international law deals with historic rights would be critical in maintaining the validity of the Unclos. Chinese claims to rights based on a broad spectrum of customary international law run the risk of severely impairing the international maritime legal order.

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30% of the world’s oil flows through the South China Sea. Any conflict there would jeopardize the world’s energy and economic future

US Energy Alliance, 2018. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36952, AUGUST 27, 2018 More than 30% of global maritime crude oil trade moves through the South China Sea

The South China Sea is a major trade route for crude oil, and in 2016, more than 30% of global maritime crude oil trade, or about 15 million barrels per day (b/d), passed through the South China Sea.

More than 90% of crude oil volumes flowing through the South China Sea in 2016 transited the Strait of Malacca, the shortest sea route between suppliers in Africa and the Persian Gulf and markets in Asia, making it one of the world’s primary oil transit chokepoints. In addition, a significant amount of crude oil (about 1.4 million b/d) passes through the strait on its way to Singapore and the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, where it is refined before transiting the South China Sea in the form of petroleum products.

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Further Reading

CHEN, Le YAO Chenchen. "Belt and Road Initiative and Possible Impacts on the South China Sea Issue-David Publishing Company," December 2017, International Relations and Diplomacy, http://davidpublisher.org/index.php/Home/Article/index?id=34533.html

Ghiasy, Richard. “CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: Security implications and ways forward for the European Union,” https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2018- 11/bri_digital_policy_brief_and_key_findings.pdf

NIE, WENJUAN. "Xi Jinping's Foreign Policy Dilemma: One Belt, One Road or the South China Sea?” Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 38, No. 3 (December 2016), pp. 422-444 https://www.jstor.org/stable/24916765?seq=1

Nomura, "The Belt and Road Initiative: Globalization, China style," April 2018, https://www.nomuraconnects.com/focused-thinking-posts/the-belt-and-road-initiative- globalisation-china-style/

Wang Peng, "BRI is not a ploy for China to control the South China Sea," April 24, 2019. Global Times http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1147222.shtml

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF India/Pakistan Conflict 65

India/Pakistan Conflict

Of all international relations arguments, this one surprised me as the one that has drawn the most attention from debaters. Let’s first discuss a brief history of the region. When India gained its independence from Great Brittan in 1947, the act of parliament that made the independence movement official also declared that under a vote by a referendum of citizens in the new nation, two countries would be allowed to form. This was due to the British realizing that there might be hostilities between the Hindu majority in the south and the Muslim majority in the north. Shortly after independence was granted to the nation of India, the independent Republic of Pakistan was created. What followed was a migration of Hindu and Muslim refugees that suddenly found themselves in a country that was openly hostile to their religious minority. Furthermore, an area that was wedged between the two nations had yet to be given an official border. This area, known as Kashmir, would remain a natural plot of land to this day. Since independence in 1947, the two nations have fought four major wars with the most recent being in 1999. Each of the four wars was a military victory for India. Both nations have developed nuclear weapons although most nuclear specialists write that India’s are likely more powerful and more accurate. Recently activity in Kashmir has drawn new attention on the conflict as both nations have drawn up their military might to the border in anticipation of an order to attack.

That brings us to the BRI, and namely to the BRI in Europe. In geopolitics, Pakistan has signed the BRI and is building part of the highway. India has not attended one conference that China has hosted on this issue. That isn’t the point. This topic is about the EU joining so let’s focus on impacts that stem from their membership. If the EU were to join, the Chinese would have a reason to bring the land route of roads and rails across Pakistan, north around India and into the Mideast. This poses a dangerous appearance to the Indian government, who is already wary of the close connection that the Chinese have with Pakistan. The Chinese and the Pakistan governments already have developed an economic zone known as the CPEC along their borders. This extension of roads and rails, which Pakistan, as a member of the BRI, would be free to use, would be seen as their enemy encircling their nation. Furthermore, the Chinese have stated that they are willing to build into the disputed zone of Kashmir. This would be seen by the Indian government as an Pakistani invasion and would likely result in a military engagement.

Nations go to war all of the time. As stated earlier, India and Pakistan have seen war four separate times in the last 60 years. That total is matched by only a few other nations on Earth. The only difference between a war now and the war 20 years ago is that today, both nations have nuclear weapons. Although most international relations scholars would say a nuclear war between the US and either Russia or China would be the deadliest, the most likely due to their long-standing hate of each other is India and Pakistan.

When debating this topic, it is important to remember how you got to your impact. You get there because the EU joining means the road gets built which encircles India. Don’t let teams trick you into defending Pakistan joining or India refusing to join. That point is interesting but not apt in this debate. Furthermore, you need to focus on the impact level. Yes, this is the most likely scenario for a nuclear war, but and this is my own personal taste here, nuclear war leads to extinction scenarios in public forum are kind of silly. In policy debate, I want bodies on the flow. In PF, I want a reasonable

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impact that is grounded to reality. If you as a debater can spin total worldwide extinction from India and Pakistan firing their limited nuclear arsenals at each other, great. But I think a much more plausible scenario is to argue that the limited war both countries would engage in would cause massive death in the region and argue sheer numbers of lives lost. Sample Evidence

The BRI is the last straw for India. They perceive this as a Chinese invasion of their territory and an alliance with Pakistan that threatens the region. This will create a conflict where the United States will be forced to take sides or break our relations.

MaçãEs, Bruno "China tunnels into India’s idea of Kashmir," 7-2-2019, https://www.livemint, https://www.livemint.com/news/india/china-tunnels-into-india-s-idea-of- kashmir-1550421875933.html

India believes that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a major threat to its national security. Not only will China’s military power appear simultaneously in its east, north and west flanks, but Pakistan will also be able to completely cut off India from Iran. The Arabian Sea and Central Asia provide access to oil and gas energy sources, increasingly under China’s control. It is a high stakes game but India’s strategy to deal with Pakistan is not limited to a destructive one. In late May 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Iran. As the most important outcome of this trip, India will invest $500 million to build Chabahar port in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan in the south-east of Iran, a direct rival and competitor to China’s flagship project in Gwadar. The port allows India to bypass Pakistan and reach land-locked Afghanistan and Central Asia. India, Iran and Afghanistan have signed an agreement to grant preferential treatment and tariff reductions at Chabahar to Indian goods headed toward Central Asia and Afghanistan and the first consignment of wheat from India to Afghanistan was sent via Chabahar in October 2017. Border standoff In June 2017 Chinese troops were spotted extending a road through a strip of land disputed between China and Bhutan. India perceived this as an unacceptable change to the status quo and crossed its own border to block those works. The Doklam plateau slopes down to the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip of Indian territory dividing the Indian mainland from its north-eastern states. Were China able to block off the corridor it would isolate India’s north-eastern region from the rest of the country, a devastating scenario in the event of war. The Doklam standoff ended with a choreographed disengagement on 28 August. By agreeing to discontinue construction works on the road, China seems to have met India more than half way, but it also used the occasion to state that it would exercise its sovereign rights in the future. More than a resolution of the crisis, the negotiation was meant to avert the risk of an accidental conflict. Troops from both countries remain in the area, but are now separated by a few hundred metres.

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India’s rejection of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may have triggered the confrontation that developed later in the summer. One month before the Doklam standoff, China had gathered about thirty national leaders at its first summit devoted to provide guidance for the BRI. India announced just one day before the event that it would not be participating, explaining that in its current form the BRI will create unsustainable burdens of debt, while one of its segments, the economic corridor linking China and Pakistan, goes through the disputed areas of Gilgit and Baltistan in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and therefore ignores Indian core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“China would never force any country to participate in the BRI if it was too sceptical and nervous to do so," an article in the Chinese state-run Global Times quickly responded. “It is regrettable but not a problem that India still maintains its strong opposition to the BRI, even though China has repeatedly said its position on the Kashmir dispute would not change because of the CPEC." The truth of the matter is that the BRI poses a number of seemingly intractable challenges for India. Most obviously, it threatens to turn Pakistan’s occupation of part of Kashmir into a fait accompli. If the area becomes an important economic corridor for China, the conflict is no longer capable of being resolved within the limited sphere of relations between Pakistan and its much larger neighbour. Economically, the challenge is, if anything, even graver. As a major economy hoping to remain on a trajectory of fast economic growth, India needs to develop deep international links and supply chains, most immediately in its neighbourhood, but the BRI may well force it into new forms of economic isolation, this time involuntary, as opposed to the years of Indian economic autarchy. New Delhi may even see in the BRI a form of rewriting history by rebuilding trade and economic links between Europe and Asia while ignoring the Indian subcontinent, historically a meeting point for such trade and cultural

A conventional war in which India would wipe the floor with Pakistan. This would force Pakistan to use their short range nukes to keep India from invading en mass. This would trigger India to use their short-range weapons in retaliation. Both sides would shortly stand down from international pressure but not before 1.6 billion people in the Asian region of the world would be put in danger

Mizokami, Kyle. "Here's What's Happening in the Undeclared War Between India and Pakistan," 2-27- 2019, Foxtrot Alpha, https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/heres-whats-happening-in-the-undeclared-war- between-ind-1832913251

Both countries have nuclear weapons, and the volatile relationship between the two could turn spur a spat into a skirmish, a skirmish into a conventional war, and a conventional war into a nuclear one. A nuclear war on the subcontinent would be the first use of nukes in anger since 1945, threatening the 1.6 billion people of the two respective countries with nuclear annihilation, and would scatter dangerous radioactive fallout across Eurasia and beyond.

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India detonated its first nuclear weapon in 1974, and today the country has between 100 and 200 nuclear weapons. The nukes are divided between Prithvi and Agni land-based missiles, aircraft delivered bombs, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Pakistan has an estimated 110 to 130 nuclear warheads, deliverable by Hatf land-based missiles and aircraft-dropped bombs.

A number of factors make a nuclear war between the two countries a disturbing possibility. The sheer number of wars the two countries have fought and the deep-seated religious and nationalist rivalries is one factor, and the close proximity of the two countries to one another makes it harder for the two sides to disengage from a crisis. Non-state actors with their own agendas, like JeM, could instigate a crisis for their own purposes.

Another problem that could lead to nuclear war: the two countries’ military forces are not evenly matched, with India having a decisive conventional military advantage over Pakistan. A conventional war would quickly put Pakistan on the defensive, and there are signs Pakistan might use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield if it finds itself on the verge of decisive military defeat. In 2013, a former Pakistani diplomat frankly stated that her country’s tactical nuclear weapons existed, “to counterbalance India’s move to bring conventional military offensives to a tactical level.”

Once battlefield nukes start flying, the close proximity of one country to the other means that each will constantly fear escalation by the other side to include nuclear strikes on cities. Each side would have just minutes to detect, identify, and retaliate against such a nuclear attack, leading to the possibility that one side might choose to strike first to gain an advantage.

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Further Reading

Chakma, Bhumitra. “The BRI and India’s Neighbourhood, Strategic Analysis,” 43:3, 183-186, DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2019.1607030

Chaudhury, Dipanjan Roy. "Beijing tries to woo India after BRI summit snub," 4-27-2019, Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/beijing-tries-to- woo-india-after-bri-summit-snub/articleshow/69066815.cms?from=mdr

Jacob, Jabin T. "China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its implications for India," 25. February 2019 Heinrich Böll Stiftung India, https://in.boell.org/2019/02/25/chinas-belt-and-road- initiative-and-its-implications-india

MaçãEs, Bruno. "China tunnels into India’s idea of Kashmir," 8-1-2019, https://www.livemint, https://www.livemint.com/news/india/china-tunnels-into-india-s-idea-of-kashmir- 1550421875933.html

Sirohi, Seema. "India-US-EU Combine Halts China's Belt and Road Initiative at the UN," 5-13- 2017, Wire, https://thewire.in/diplomacy/india-china-belt-and-road-united-nations

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF US/EU Relations 70

US/EU Relations

In the year 2019, things rarely happen in a vacuum. This is only magnified in the United States by our president, Donald Trump. Trump, a self-proclaimed “America First” supporter has from his first day in office sought to strengthen America’s position at the bargaining table in one of the arenas where he finds his business knowledge and ties to old friends comes in handy: Trade. Since taking office in January of 2017, Trump has accused China of currency manipulation, unfair trade practices, digital spying, copyright infringement, and other international trade related crimes. To put right the wrongs of the past, the US government put into place a series of tariffs on imported goods from China. As off now, there are import taxes on over 300 billion dollars’ worth of goods, and that amount is only set to increase in December. Whether or not China is actually harmed by these tariffs, one thing has become clear, China is looking for new trading partners. As discussed earlier in this brief, Europe is eager to open their doors to China as it could mean new economic prosperity for the continent. However, one must look at the repercussions of the BRI and how the US would view the EU’s move to join. Put simply, the US strongly opposes the BRI. First, the BRI breaks the isolation and containment principal that the US has sought to create around China. After branding several Chinese technology firms as “threats to national security,” by taxing imports of steel and other metals, and by putting tariffs on goods, the US had hoped that other nations would follow suit and help constrict China until they came to the table in the same way that an international collation helped squeeze the Soviet Union in the Cuban Missile Crisis. However, by the EU jumping ship and opening the doors to billions in imports and trade, the containment is lost and the US loses a huge amount of their clout. Second, the US fears China’s rise as a world leader. Despite having a military with a significant weapons advantage and a nuclear arsenal that is lightyears ahead of China’s in terms of power and delivery vehicles, the US fears what might happen if China becomes the dominant world economic superpower. Already, on fears another recession and debt bubble collapse caused by student loans and other consumer debt, several nations are already looking to use the Yuan as their trading currency. Furthermore, in Europe, nations that have already signed on to the BRI have already floated the idea of dropping the US dollar for the Yuan as their dominant trading currency. Should the US fall out of favor internationally as a global economic superpower, we lose our ability to influence world politics and risk our soft power. The terminal impact to these arguments is not only things like soft power but it is the relationship that the EU has with the US. Already, things like the Paris Climate Agreement, Brexit, trade, and Greenland have pushed relations to the edge. Joining the BRI could very well be the last thing that pushes the US away from Europe. Every country needs allies. Historically, Europe has been critical not only as a trade partner but as a counterbalance and check against

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Russian influence. Europe sits at a crossroads where intelligence from areas like Africa and the Middle East flow. The US currently operates dozens of military bases in Europe. Despite their value, their ascension to the BRI risks the US cutting or significantly limiting ties to Europe. For the naysayers that thing that cooler heads would prevail, nothing is certain in 2019. When debating this argument, you are viewing things through both the lens of the US and the world. The direction you take the impacts are up to you and your partner. However, the key to remember is that like other arguments, the root must come from the EU joining the BRI. You are not simply debating BRI good with US impacts, but you are using the US impacts as the impact on the end of the chain. Finally, you need to find good answers to the argument that so far, 17 nations in Europe have joined thus far and we haven’t seen “X” impact yet. I think a good way to look at this is that each nation that breaks ranks has pushed relations, and if the whole EU joins, including our allies in Germany and France, that’s where we see the brink.

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China’s BRI has made a large scale trade deal very tempting to Europe. The US will oppose but has done little to stop it

Kendall-Taylor, Andrea and Rizzo, Rachel. The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side," 8-"12-2019, POLITICO Magazine, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations- 227614

China is a close and important partner for Europe; the two sides trade roughly 1 billion Euros worth per day, and Chinese foreign direct investment in the EU totaled 29.1 and 17.3 billion Euros in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The economic opportunity that China presents—especially for countries that have lagged economically behind Western Europe—creates strong incentives to sit on the fence. Countries in Southern and Eastern Europe in particular benefit from China’s Belt and Road investment and are keen to avoid losing it.

At the EU-level, leaders have been unable to chart a clear course for dealing with China. Yes, some countries like Germany and France have driven progress on this front—the EU referred to Beijing as a “systemic rival” earlier this year, and the European Commission introduced a new framework to facilitate closer scrutiny of Chinese investments in Europe. But while EU-level joint statements and guidelines are welcome developments, implementation of the guidelines is left up to EU member states, who have different strategies to deal with China. As we have already seen, for example, some European leaders are willing to criticize China’s business practices and human rights record, while others have remained silent. This lack of cohesion prevents Europe from effectively countering the challenges that China’s rise creates or from clearly aligning with the Unites States in the ways that will be required to defend shared values.

Europe’s lack of a unified, strong approach largely stems from an absence of a European-wide consensus about the threat that China poses. Unlike Russia, which illegally annexed territory in Ukraine and regularly interferes in Europe’s democracies, China has pursued a more subtle approach to Europe. Moreover, while Russia looms large to Europe’s north, China is more distant and does not pose the same direct military threat. China’s tactics have so far obscured (or made it easier to overlook) the fact that, like Moscow, Beijing views liberal democracy as a threat to its success and stability and believes that by weakening democracy it can accelerate the decline of Western influence.

The United States has done little to help move Europe off the fence. Instead, the Trump administration has actively pushed the continent away. Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal, imposing steel and aluminum tariffs, and antagonizing some of its closest allies, including by referring to the European Union a foe, have made the United States seem like a less attractive partner than it used to be. While Washington has been antagonistic, Beijing has been careful to strike all the right chords. The CCP talks about harmonizing civilizations, invokes “values” when discussing European and Chinese commonalities, and extols the values of multilateralism. Because China and Europe increasingly find themselves on the same side of conflicts with Washington, this administration has made it easy for Beijing to present itself as the reliable and responsible global player.

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The US has warned the EU about the Chinese threat and the BRI but the EU moves against the wises of Washington

Le Corre, Philippe. "On China’s Expanding Influence in Europe and Eurasia," 5-9-2019, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/05/09/on-china-s- expanding-influence-in-europe-and-eurasia-pub-79094

While the U.S. has taken a tougher stance in dealing with China’s persistent lack of reciprocity in economic relations and violations of international norms of intellectual property for some years, European countries have recently begun reacting concretely to the economic and security-related considerations linked to certain Chinese investments on their soil. The EU’s official acknowledgment of China as a “systemic rival” in a policy document released this spring marks a departure from previously conciliatory language.1

At the same time, Chinese investments on both sides of the Atlantic have declined considerably after peaking in 2016. Beijing is increasingly curbing private outward investment to maintain its stock of foreign reserves and to direct capital to domestic use amid a period of economic slowdown. The notable exceptions are foreign direct investments (FDI) connected with President Xi Jinping’s flagship strategy to achieve technological parity in key industries, Made in China 2025, and investment towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Xi’s other grand plan to connect China to its markets through large-scale infrastructure projects. The BRI now counts new European signatories, including Italy, one of the EU’s founding members, which also became the first G7 nation to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with China in March 2019.

The latter episode has provided an important test for the U.S.-Europe security relationship. Upon the urging of American diplomats not to take part in the BRI, Italy has loudly reiterated its allegiance to NATO and the underlying Western alliance. Yet is has chosen to defy both the U.S. and EU strategic posture in its decision to adhere to the project.

The greatest challenge is that Chinese investments in strategic sectors can generate economic dependence, especially among smaller countries and struggling economies, and this relationship can expand into the political realm, as it has on a few occasions that I will mention shortly.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. and Europe need to consider how they can maintain their security relationship to meet mutual challenges, but also how to reconcile diverging strategies for handling the emergence of China in order to avoid an escalation of tensions and to build instead a constructive relationship with Beijing.

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Further Reading

Chance, Alex, “American Perspective on the Belt and Road Initiative,” Center for Chinese- American Studies, https://chinaus-icas.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/American- Perspectives-on-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf

Gan, Nectar. "United States under Trump is veering off China’s belt and road," 4-25-2019, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3007504/united- states-under-trump-veering-away-chinas-belt-and-road

Hormats, Robert. "How the US-China Trade War Could Impact US-EU Negotiations and the WTO," 6-25-2019, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new- atlanticist/how-the-us-china-trade-war-could-impact-us-eu-negotiations-and-the-wto

Luft, Gal. “Silk Road 2.0: US Strategy toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative,” 2017, Atlantic Council Strategy Paper, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/AC_StrategyPapers_No11_FINAL_web3.pdf

Reuters Editorial, "China says 'fed up' with hearing U.S. complaints on Belt and Road," U.S., 5-9- 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-silkroad-usa/china-says-fed-up-with- hearing-u-s-complaints-on-belt-and-road-idUSKCN1SF0UY

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Conclusion 75

Conclusion

I believe this topic has it all. It is steeped in history, international relations, current events, and economics. Based on the recent data from debater and from watching the conversations that people have been having online about this topic, combined with the fact that this is the first topic of the season, teams are still trying to “stretch their legs” a bit and find what works and what doesn’t. The keys to winning debate on this topic will be background reading. Unlike some topics where a team could pick up a case and read it in round and win, this topic has nuances that I believe don’t exist on some topics. Looking at issues like Xi power, there is always a question as to “why” something happens rather than issuing the statement that “this is happening.” As a judge, I want to be clearly told what links A to B.

I think that the other key is finding something that you like to debate and digging in. I had an opportunity to speak with several of my students who were at a debate camp over the summer. As they were brainstorming ideas for cases, they left behind what I would call the “popular” arguments and the ones that were talked about a lot in favor of venturing down the road less travelled. Yes, it took a lot of research for them to make their cases viable, but they did so because they didn’t want to run what was standard. They wanted to take the time to experiment.

Finally, on this topic, pay close attention to current events. We are dealing with an uncertain world and a President that can change the course of current events and international politics with a 280- character tweet. An increase in tariffs at the last minute in October or one more European nation joining, or a dip in the stock market can mean a change in how other nations deal with international politics. Furthermore, as of now, the Chinese have a few trips set for Europe this fall before the topic rotates and I’d bet that the BRI will be a point of discussion. Should anything come from these meetings, the topic could change course in an instant. In this regard, the team that wins the round might be the team that checked the New York Times right before the round started.

Good luck and good debating.

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Pro Argument At-A-Glance

ARGUMENT TALKING POINTS CON RESPONCES

ENVIRONMENT The Chinese will be forced to adopt to clean tech standards. The Chinese have not shown any interest in investing in green tech. New technology will be developed to support the aging Chinese infrastructure. This will be green They are building in countries with lax environmental laws. Outweighs any European standards.

HUMAN RIGHTS The EU can pressure China to change their tone on human rights EU nations have had a chance for decades to pressure China. in negotiations. They haven’t so far.

The Chinese will be put in the spotlight because of the BRI. China has been put in the spotlight before by things like the Means they won’t be able to commit violations of human rights. Olympics. Nothing changed. No one cared.

EUROPEAN UNITY EU is fracturing now. Signing on as one would unite them against No amount of unity can counterbalance Russia. bigger threats. Even if joining the BRI unites the EU, it drives away the US.

DEBT TRAPS Countries might be at risk if they sign on, but for some, it is a Debt to China and their perpetual influence and loss of necessary evil to gain the financial ability to build their nations. sovereignty outweighs infrastructure building.

If you don’t pay back the loans, China claims the property.

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC GROWTH EU economy is faltering now. Recession is coming. Only the BRI The only nation that wins is China. More will be sold by China can prop up the economies. and China takes back.

Wealthy nations stand to gain more. The nations that are less wealthy get stuck with BRI debt.

CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH China is being crunched by the US tariffs. Their collapse would be China is doing just fine. Recent data proves. devastating. China is still selling to the US. Tariffs hurt US consumers not the Chinese.

New markets in Africa and South America solve.

5G TEHCNOLOGY BRI helps bring 5G to Europe. Major improvements in medicine, Major threat to privacy and international security. communications, and education. Risks creating a monopoly, freezing out others.

XI POWER XI is consolidating power and stabilizing China. He is bringing Xi is trampling the rights of minorities. China into the 21st century. He is creating a dictatorship and creating conflicts by expanding the military into normally calm areas.

He is trying to spread the state party and expand the sphere of influence of China. Creates conflict withy the Western nations.

SCS/ECS Expands exploration and shipping in these regions due to the Creates conflict with China’s neighbors. ocean shipping routes. Brings BRI to island nations. Angers the US military. US will move to counterbalance. Could cause conflict.

INDIA/PAKISTAND CONFLICT China has taken no sides in the conflict. India has peacefully staid The PCEC threatens India. This is a likely place for war if India no to the BRI. sees construction here. War goes nuclear.

US/EU RELATIONS US/EU relations are stable now. No harm. US elections coming Any sign that the EU is uniting with China will collapse up means no drastic action will be taken. relations we the US.

US relations key to soft power, the War on Terror, Trade, and NATO.

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Con Argument At-A-Glance 77

Con Argument At-A-Glance

ARGUMENT TALKING POINTS CON RESPONCES

ENVIRONMENT China is clear cutting the forests to build the BRI. Plus, they are China can’t develop nuclear power in countries that don’t building coal power plants and shipping in hundreds of have the infrastructure. workers. Harms the environment. Clean tech is being developed because of the BRI. This outweighs.

HUMAN RIGHTS China harms human rights. Increased trade is a sign of Can force China’s hand in negotiations. complacency. China has been improving their record.

EUROPEAN UNITY Joining would harm relations with other organizations and the US won’t boycott over the BRI. EU. EU unity is fine now. EU is fractured and about to split. Needs to find a way to unite now.

DEBT TRAPS Nations can’t afford to pay loans back. They end up in debt to China has forgiven a lot of debt. China. China works with nations to repay loans.

IMF is worst than China for loans.

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC GROWTH Chinese involvement kills local economic development. European system is outdated. Needs new income to survive the next recession.

CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH China economy is fine now. BRI overextends their markets Tariffs have caused a profit loss. causing products shortages and collapse. Their economy is in slowing and not immune from recession. They need new markets.

5G TEHCNOLOGY China will use 5G to violate privacy and harm international All large investigations found no backdoors or spying threat. security. Can’t stop 5G. Will happen regardless.

XI POWER Xi is using this for his personal gain. He wants total power in China’s rise is peaceful. They are becoming a world leader. China. No threat from China. They are needed to balance Russia.

SCS/ECS Major conflict in the SCS/ECS due to shipping and a lack of China is entitled to use the free waters. LOST. They are not infringing on other nation’s rights.

INDIA/PAKISTAND CONFLICT Land route uses Kashmir. India will go to war to stop this. They India has peacefully said no to the BRI. see it as Pakistan taking the land with China’s help. They had their chance to voice concerns.

Diplomacy solves. Negotiations over this region are ongoing.

No war. Should have happened last summer during the open conflict.

US/EU RELATIONS Signing on will push the US towards cutting ties. EU needs the US won’t cut ties. EU is too big to cut relations with. US. 17 nations already have joined. No impact yet.

National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF