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September-October 2019 Advanced Public Forum Brief

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September-October 2019 Advanced Public Forum Brief NSDA Advanced PF Brief September/October 2019 PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED PUBLIC FORUM BRIEF National Speech & Debate Association © 2018-2019 • updated 09/09/2019 Resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative. 2 Resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative. This topic brief was written by Jesse Meyer. Jesse is a diamond coach, recipient of the Donald Crabtree Service Award, the state of Iowa’s 2015 Coach of the Year, and board member of the Iowa Forensics League. He can be reached at [email protected]. 2 National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Table of Contents 3 September-October 2019 Advanced Public Forum Brief NSDA Advanced PF Brief September/October 2019 . 1 Resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative. 2 Table of Contents . 3 Introduction . 4 Framework and Definitions . 6 Social/Political . .. 8 Environment . 9 Human Rights . 13 European Collation/Unity . .20 Economic . 26 Debt Traps . 27 European Economic Growth . 32 Chinese Economic Growth . .. 39 5G Technology . 45 International Relations . 51 XI Power . 52 SCS/ECS . 58 India/Pakistan Conflict . 65 US/EU Relations . 70 Conclusion . 75 Pro Argument At-A-Glance . .76 Con Argument At-A-Glance . 77 National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Introduction 4 Introduction The resolution for September/October 2019 is Resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative. This topic was covered in more fine detail in the NSDA’s primary topic analysis packet, so I won’t go too deep into the background of the topic, but I will give a glancing overview to set the stage to discuss the arguments over which the topic is centered around and how students are debating these. The concept of the Belt and Road, otherwise known as the BRI or the Second Silk Road stems from economic land routes that connected the regions in East Asia in the area that would become mainland China to the Western regions of Europe. This route was active from the second century until the 18th century. This route allowed for the trade of spices, silks, and manufactured goods from East Asia to transit to nations in the West. The Western nations, in return, sent farm crops unknown to East Asia back. More importantly, this route became an important path for cultural exchanges. As caravans moved back and forth, traders would make stops to rest and resupply. The influence of Eastern and Western culture was transferred inland to areas in Russia, India, Pakistan, the Middle East, and more. During the 18th century and the political restructuring of China, the colonial settlements along the Eastern coast of China by the European and American powers, and the advent of the industrial revolution in Europe and America, the Silk Road collapsed. In 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled a new initiative while touring central Asia. At the time, China had been recognized as one of the biggest and fastest growing economies in the world. At the tame time, the rest of the world was still recovering from the great recession of 2008 and was looking for economic stimulus. Furthermore, Xi was facing criticism at home for what his opponents in the state communist party saw as a lackluster foreign policy. Xi was looking for a way to strengthen China and expand its influence. The plan that was unveiled was known as the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Today, this is what we would call the BRI or the New Silk Road. His plan was twofold. China would create an overland trade route from China to Europe while also creating a maritime water trade route with the rest of the world. The overland route would include a new system of rail transport systems, highways, and airports. The water routes would mean the construction of ports and harbors. Nations that would agree to become part of this project would be granted huge loans from the Chinese government and the Chinese government would provide labor to facilitate the construction of these projects. Once these projects were complete, multilateral trade could flow across these routes. New markets could be opened; and at the center of this would be China. Now, we are in the year 2019. Since his announcement seven years ago, 152 countries have signed onto the BRI. One group of nations that has resisted joining en mass are the 4 National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF 5 member states of the European Union. So far, only 18 have signed on with some of the biggest economies still resisting. In this brief, we will break down the arguments for and against the European Union joining into three areas: Social, Economic, and International Relations. From there, we will look at the major arguments that I believe fall under these headings. We will discuss the argument and what it means, we will look at how it is debated on both the pro and the con with sample cards for each side, and I will conclude with a bibliography for further and more in depth reading. 5 National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF Framework and Definitions 6 Framework and Definitions When we look at the framework debate, the first issue that must be addressed is to which national view do we look at this topic? What I mean by this is: do we used a European view, a Chinese view, or an American view when evaluating impacts? The resolution does specify that the EU will be the one doing the joining, but their actions will have far reaching consequences, both positive and negative on the international community. The central focus of the debate should still be on the EU and whether they join or not, but I believe that it is a legitimate strategy for debaters to evaluate impacts through a causal chain of events. As this topic was rolled out at debate camps this summer, cases stuck to the hard and fast concept that impacts had to stem from direct EU action. But by the time the last camp finished up in mid- August, it was clear that ground for the topic rooted in Europe was based on a largely financial core. So, as debaters and coaches, it will be important to coach to the idea of a strong link chain that makes sure that the central idea of the topic is rooted in the EU joining the BRI and that from that root, you can get impacts. Impacts and their weighing mechanisms can’t artificially grow from simply arguing the BRI is good or bad in “X” country without first linking it to the EU. Back to the concept of view, each world view must be concerned with different things. Human nature is driven by many different things, and one of the biggest factors is our location within the world. Our location affects what things we care about, what issues we take for granted, and what things keep us up at night. Debaters on this topic seem to have been looking at this through the eyes of the European Union or European nations. They are focused on the term of art of the “European Union” that is located in the resolution and have largely ignored the other two views. I do not thing that this is wrong, but I think there is an argument to be made that this is one route that could be explored more, and one that I feel, especially once you get into October and people start getting “bored” with this topic, more and more people will start experimenting with. Once you have chosen the view that you can best articulate in round, it is time to find the actual “phrasing” you will use in case. For this, let the narrative of your case shape the direction of your framework. Based on the largest impacts in case or the direction you and your partner want to take the topic, frameworks that seem to be working and winning are: -Economic Prosperity (which side can best provide for the greatest increase in economic growth or stability.) -World Pease (which side can best provide for international stability that keeps all nations from going to war.) -Human Rights (which side can best solve for the basic civility when working with minority or oppressed groups.) 6 National Speech & Debate Association • Public Forum Debate: SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2019 ADVANCED BRIEF 7 -The Environment (In some form, which side can best protect planet Earth.) -Technological Advancement (which side best leads to new technology and why is this good?) -Cost Benefit (after looking at all advantages, which side seems to provide the most general benefit?) Of course, there are more that exist, but based on a survey of cases that have been written thus far on this topic, these seem to be the most popular ones. The important thing to remember is to find one that fits your narrative. Based the narratives that have been discussed in roundtables online and at camps, it seems that the prevailing view is that there should be a European or a Chinese worldview to impact level analysis. Thus, for this brief, that is where the majority of arguments will fall. Based on the definition debate, there are a few points that will vary based on the arguments you are planning on running. One thing to note here is that the long-standing issue with topicality debates in public forum is that judges are willing to vote on these issues but they often don’t know why they are voting.
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