Flight School Decision Support System

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 1 Research - Senior Design - 2015

FLIGHT SCHOOL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

Acur, Sezen Camacho, Erwin Lohr, Raymond Talley, Alicia GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 2 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Project Overview

To deliver a system allowing flight schools to visualize the effects and improve the results of decision making in lowering the cost of operating aircraft at a flight school.

This system may be useful to flight training programs that are struggling to maintain operations, contributing to a perceived shortage in the number of pilots available to the aviation industry.

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 3 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Agenda

Context Problem and Need Statement Stakeholders System Requirements Method of Analysis Design Results Analysis Conclusion GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 4 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Why Help Flight Schools?

There exists a belief that the number of pilots needed by various industries is exceeding the supply and that a major hindrance to the creation of new pilots exists at the level of primary training.

Primary training is the process by which student pilots are educated by Certificated Flight Instructors (CFI) at flight schools with the goal of earning a Private Pilot certificate, after which point they may continue training to eventually become Commercial or Airline Transport Pilots (ATP). GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 5 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Pilot Training Life Cycle

Source: AOPA [4], Dulles Aviation GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 6 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Higher Component Costs Increase Price of Training 350.0 10 10 4.5

9 9 4

300.0

8 8 )

3.5

Gal

250.0 7 7 3 6 6 200.0 2.5 5 5 150.0 2 4 4

1.5 ($/ Gasoline Aviation 3 3

(Thousands of of (Thousands Dollars) 100.0

Cost of new Cessna172new of Cost (Thousands of of (Thousands Dollars) 1

2 Training PrivatePilot of Cost 2 Cost of of Cost 50.0 1 1 0.5

0.0 0 0 0

Cost Of Training In Thousands (2012 Dollars) Cost of new Cessna 172 (2015 Dollars) Avg yearly retail sales by refiners Cost Of Training In Thousands (2012 Dollars) Avg yearly wholesale/resale by refiners

Source: University of North Dakota [1], Energy Information Administration [2], Smithsonian Air & Space [10], Cessna [11] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 7 Research - Senior Design - 2015

Pilot Throughput is Decreasing

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000 Student 40000 ATP Private 30000

Number of New Certificates Newof Number 20000

10000

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year

Source: Federal Aviation Administration [6] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 8 Research - Senior Design - 2015 13% Decrease in Number of Flight Schools

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

Number of Flight School Enterprises School Flight of Number 100

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year

Source: IBISWorld [5] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 9 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Problem Statement

The hypothesis is that the increased operating cost of aircraft is contributing to higher prices at flight schools, leading to lost customers and struggling businesses.

Decreasing Struggling Pilot Businesses Throughput

Increasing Rising Training Operating Prices Costs GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 10 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Need Statement

With the higher prices of obtaining a license resulting in lower pilot throughput at flight schools, there is a need to assist schools in reducing the costs associated with operating the aircraft used in training new pilots. GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 11 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Stakeholder Relationships GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 12 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Scope

The focus will be on private flight schools, with a concentration on the costs directly associated with flying a single-engine, primary trainer aircraft.

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 13 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Mission Requirements

MR.1 The system shall provide a set of cost-performance curves for an array of selected aircraft

MR.2 The system shall provide a utility analysis across a given set of qualities in each aircraft

MR.3 The system shall recommend an aircraft that minimizes the cost of flight school operations GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 14 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Method of Analysis

The operation of a homogeneous fleet of aircraft will be stochastically simulated and analyzed for cost performance trends measured against the size of and student demand placed on that fleet.

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 15 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Stochastic Cost of Operations GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 16 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Model Inputs

General Parameters

• Number of aircraft, instructors • Hourly prices for services rendered • Expected service inter-arrival time (time between flight sessions) • Expected service duration

Aircraft Parameters

• Aircraft type • MTBF • MTTR • Fuel consumption

Simulation Parameters

• Simulation duration • Number of repetitions GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 17 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Input Analysis – Maintenance

Symbol Distribution μ (hours) Square Error

Mean Time MTBF Exponential 463* 0.044 Between Failures Mean Time to MTTR Exponential 53* 0.055 Repair

MTBF MTTR

*Derived from historical data from one year of two Cessna 172 M flight data from one real flight school GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 18 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Input Analysis – Flight Sessions

Symbol Distribution μ (hours) Square Error

Interval Between μ Exponential 4 0.030 Flight Sessions Flight Session λ Exponential 1.5 0.003 Duration

Interval Between Flight Sessions Flight Session Duration GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 19 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Assumptions

The simulation of flight operations is subject to the following constraints:

• Flight schools provide service 24/7

• CFIs provide service 24/7

• No queuing delay

• Demand for service is static

• All operations and costs involve student flights

• Maintenance rates are uniform across aircraft types

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 20 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Design of Experiment

Case # A/C # CFI Variable Value 1 1-30 1 Demand (flights/day) 6 2 1-30 2 No. Students 128 3 1-30 3 Maintenance Rate ($/hr) 90 4 1-30 4 Student Rate ($/hr) 150 • • • CFI Rate ($/hr) 70 • • • Storage Rate ($/hr) 0.13 • • • Simulation Duration (yrs) 10 30 1-30 30 Repetitions 100 GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 21 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Yearly Profit Margin per Aircraft 100000

50000 0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 -50000

Margin ($) Margin -100000 -150000 Student-to-Aircraft Ratio (S/I Ratio constant at 4.3) 70000

60000

50000 40000 30000

Margin ($) Margin 20000 10000 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Student-to-Instructor Ratio (S/A ratio constant at 25.6)

푸 Student−Aircraft Ratio 푺 퐐퐈 = 퐪퐮퐚퐧퐭퐢퐭퐲 퐨퐟 퐢퐧퐬퐭퐫퐮퐜퐭퐨퐫퐬 푺 푨 = = 푸푨 퐐퐀 = quantity of aircraft 푸푺 퐐퐒 = quantity of students 푺 푰 = Student−Instructor Ratio = Results are for a Cessna 172 M 푸푰 GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 22 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Income and Costs

1.2 푸풊풏풔풑 = total number of inspections 푸풐풗풓 = total number of engine overhauls

total time spent in unexpected maintenance 1 푻푼 =

푪푭 = total cost of flying 푪푴 = total cost of maintenance 0.8

푷푭 = price of fuel per gallon 푷푰 = hourly price of CFI 0.6 푷 = hourly price of maintenance 푴 푷푯 = hourly price of tie−downs per aircraft

0.4 푬푭 = fuel consumption rate of aircraft

Income / Cost of Operations of Cost / Income Cost = 푪푭 + 푪푴 0.2 푪푭 = 푻푭 푷푭푬푭 + 푷푰 푪푴 = 푻푺 푷푯푸푨 + ퟒퟎퟎퟎ푸풊풏풔풑 + ퟏퟖퟎퟎퟎ푸풐풗풓 + 푷푴푻푼 0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 푷푺 = hourly price of flight session to students Student-to-Aircraft Ratio Revenue = ퟏ. ퟑ푻푭 ퟎ. ퟑ푷푰 + 푷푺 + ퟏퟗퟓ푸푺 Results are for a Cessna 172 M GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 23 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Maintenance Increases as S/A Increases

3500

3000

2500

2000

Hours Flown 1500

Hours Maintained Time (Hours) Time 1000

500

0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Student-to-Aircraft Ratio

Results are for a Cessna 172 M GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 24 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Quality of Service – M/M/1 Queuing Delay 8 훌 Expected Wait Time = 7 훍(훍−훌) 6 5 훌 = No. Flight Sessions 4 (per hour) 3 2 훍 = Session Duration

Delay Delay (Minutes) 1 (hours) 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 S/A Ratio

70 60 50 40 30 20 Delay (Minutes) Delay 10 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Arrival Rate GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 25 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Utility Scores

푴 Aircraft 풂 Performance 푴ퟎ 푾풂 = Characteristics ퟑ 푴풂 풏=ퟏ 푴ퟎ

W = Weight Maintenance Maintenance Fuel M = Margin Duration (MTTR) Interval (MTBF) Consumption a = Attribute 0.32 0.30 0.38

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Cessna 162 0.87 Van's RV-12 0.68 Cessna 152 0.56 Diamond Eclipse 0.34 Cessna 172S 0.34 Piper Archer II 0.30 Cessna 172M 0.20 Cessna 172SP 0.15 GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 26 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Sensitivity Analysis 1 0.9 0.8

0.7

0.6 Cessna 162 0.5 Van's RV-12 Utility 0.4 0.3 Cessna 152 0.2 Cessna 172M 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Fuel Weight

1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5 Utility 0.4 Utility 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 MTTR Weight MTBF Weight GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 27 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Yearly Results Across Aircraft

Maximum F/M Ratio at S/A Ratio at Max S/A Ratio to Student Wait Time Aircraft Profit ($) Max Profit Profit Break Even at Max Profit (min)

Cessna 162 96336 3.9 43 6 2.4

Van's RV-12 81146 4.5 21 6 1.1

Cessna 152 69646 4.5 23 8 1.2

Diamond Eclipse 61459 4.5 21 7 1.1

Cessna 172S 75174 4.8 43 10 2.4

Piper Archer II 48977 7.0 21 10 1.1

Cessna 172M 55345 3.7 43 10 2.4

Cessna 172SP 19343 4.2 21 12 1.1

Student-to-Instructor Ratio constant at 4.3 GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 28 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Return on Investment

Aircraft High unit ROI Low unit ROI price ($) (pessimistic) price ($) (optimistic) Cessna 162 90,000 11 months 70,000 9 months Van's RV-12 123,000 17 months 60,000 6 months Cessna 152 40,000 6 months 20,000 3 months Diamond 5 years 1 13 months Eclipse 100,000 month 85,000 Cessna 172S 368,000 19 months 80,000 15 months Piper Archer II 112,000 2 years 47,000 10 months Cessna 172M 219,000 4 years 18,000 3 months 22 years 1 6 years Cessna 172SP 390,000 month 100,000

Yearly inflation: 3% GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 29 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Conclusion and Recommendations

• Large quantities of time in maintenance results in lower profits

• Recommend flight schools place a higher value on tailoring fleet size to fit their demand

• Recommend a homogeneous fleet of Van’s RV-12 or Cessna 152

• Recommend a study focused on flight school maintenance GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 30 Research - Senior Design - 2015

QUESTIONS? Department of Systems Engineering and Operations 31 Research - Senior Design - 2015 References [1]J. Higgins and K. Lovelace, “An Investigation of the United States Airline Pilot Labor Supply.” 2013. [2] “U.S. Refiner Petroleum Product Prices,” U.S. Energy Information Administration. [Online]. Available: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_refoth_dcu_nus_m.htm. [Accessed: 16-Oct- 2014]. [3] “Let’s Go Flying: Certificates Comparison,” Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. [Online]. Available: http://www.aopa.org/letsgoflying/cert_comparison.html?keepThis=true&TB_iframe=true&heig ht=530&width=675. [Accessed: 08-Oct-2014]. [4] “Let’s Go Flying: Pilot certificate options and timelines,” AOPA. [Online]. Available: http://www.aopa.org/letsgoflying/ready/time/options.html. [Accessed: 20-Oct-2014]. [5] Edwards, Jeremy. “Flying Schools in the US”. IBISWorld Industry Report. N.p., (July 2014) [Accessed: 4-Oct-2014]. [6] “U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics,” Federal Aviation Administration. [Online]. Available: http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/. [Accessed: 08-Oct-2014]. [7] “Skyhawk — The best-selling and most-flown aircraft ever built,” Cessna, 2013. [Online]. Available: http://cessna.txtav.com/en/single-engine/skyhawk. [Accessed: 20-Oct-2014]. [8] Blair, Jason; Freye, Jonathon. “Flight Training Capacity in the Context of Recent Legislation: An Examination of the Impacts of Reduced Training Capacity, and the Declining Rates of Airmen Certification.” National Association of Flight Instructors. N.p., (3/1/2012) Web. 4 Oct. 2014. [9] Federal Aviation Regulations Aeronautical Information Manual, 2014 ed., Aviation Supplies & Academics, Newcastle, WA, 2014, pp. 31-131, 447-494. [10]R. Mola, “Cessna’s Golden Oldie,” Air & Space Smithsonian. [Online]. Available: http://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/cessnas-golden-oldie-10240010/?no- ist=&page=2. [Accessed: 08-Apr-2015]. [11] “2012 172S Skyhawk Price List.” Cessna Skyhawk SP, 14-Feb-2012.

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 32 A Research - Senior Design - 2015

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 33 Research - Senior Design - 2015

BACKUPS GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 34 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Definitions

• Single Engine Aircraft: An aircraft containing one engine to be used for propelling the aircraft • Primary Training Aircraft: a class of aircraft designed specifically to facilitate flight training of pilots • Airline Transport Pilot (ATP): highest level of aircraft pilot license Department of Systems Engineering and Operations 35 Research - Senior Design - 2014 Will the total number of pilots be sufficient for the demand?

200000 180000 Actual Number of Pilots 160000 Actual Number of Pilots

Projected 140000 Needed Number of Pilots Projected

120000 of Pilots of 100000 80000

60000 Total Number Total 40000 20000 0 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Year

Source: University of North Dakota [1] Department of Systems Engineering and Operations 36 Research - Senior Design - 2014 Types of Flight Schools

Number of PROS CONS Schools PRIVATE 410 • Enroll any time without • Cost and duration (Part 141) admission requirements not fixed • Learn at your own pace • Own a certificate rather than a degree UNIVERSITY 113 • Earn a degree • Admission process • Receive governmental • Less flexible assistance schedule (scholarships, grants, loans, G.I. Bill etc.) MILITARY 11 • G.I. Bill and other • Rigid schedule military grants help with • Duty service prior to costs of school benefits • Fly aircraft free of charge

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations 37 Research - Senior Design - 2014 Federal Aviation Regulations for Private Flight Schools

FAA FAA Greater FAA Rigid Lower Hourly Certified Certificated Oversight Training Requirement School Instructors Schedule for Licenses Part 61 × Part 141 × × × × ×

• Part 61 schools are more flexible and better for students pursuing their license on a less regular schedule. The minimum hours to earn a license are greater.

• Part 141 schools have their curriculum approved by the FAA and are more rigid. They are better for full-time students pursuing a career in aviation.

• Both require students to meet the same standard of performance in order to obtain a pilot certificate.

Source: AOPA [3], FAR AIM [9] Department of Systems Engineering and Operations 38 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Typical Costs to Acquire Licenses

Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) $100,000

Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI) $45,000-70,000

Commercial $40,000- 60,000 Instrument Rating $11,000-$22,000 Private $5,000-12,000

Student $100

Source: AOPA [4], Dulles Aviation Department of Systems Engineering and 39 Operations Research - Senior Design - 2014 License Holders are Aging

90000

- 44

80000 -

49 -

70000 54

- 34

60000 -

40 45

25 60

- -

50000 -

- -

29 64

40000 65

30000 64

65 Number of Certificatesof Number

20000 -

19 19

10000 -

0 1999 2013 Year

Source: Federal Aviation Administration [6] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 40 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Limitation

Flight inspections and engine overhauls are scheduled after the simulation has run through the duration of the scheduler meaning that there is potential for the maintenance time and flight time for a single aircraft to exceed the number of hours simulated for under certain conditions. Department of Systems Engineering and Operations 41 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Equations GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 42 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Cost of Operations vs. Income

900000

800000

700000

600000

500000

Cost of Operations

Dollars 400000 Income 300000

200000

100000

0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Student-to-Aircraft Ratio

Results are for a Cessna 172 M GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 43 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Aircraft Data Aircraft New Used Unit Used years New Rebuilt GTOW Fuel Number of Years in Number of Unit Price considered Engine Engine (lbs) Consumption built Production Seats Price (Range) (range) price ($) price($) rate aircraft (2015)

Cessna $80K-$90K 2009-2013 $27K $23K 1320 6.3 272 * 2009-2014 2 162 - [6] [6] [9] [9] [21] [21] [11] [21] [21]

Van’s $123K $60K-$90K 2008-2014 $ 20K $16K 1320 4 355 2008- 2 RV12 [20] [17] [17] [20] [20] [19] [19] [19] [19] [19]

Cessna $24K-40K 1977-1983 $30K $17K 1670 6 7584 1977-1985 2 152 - [3] [12] [12] [2] [2] [2] [2] [2] [3] Diamond $100K $85K- 1998-2015 $27K $23K 1764 5 500 1994- 2 Eclipse [10] [22] [22] [9] [9] [10] [10] [10] [10] [10]

Cessna $368K $80K- $350K 1999-2015 $55K $35K 2550 8 43000 1998- 4 172S [21] [5] [5] [12] [12] [21] [21] [21] [21] [21]

Piper $40K-$90K 1976-1982 $55K $35K 2550 8.8 10,500 1976-1981 4 Archer II - [13] [13] [12] [12] [15] [15] [15] [15] [15]

Cessna $42-$100 1973-1976 $55K $35K 2550 8 7306 1973-1976 4 172M - [6] [6] [12] [12] [6] [6] [6] [6] [6]

Cessna $100-$390K 2001-2009 $55K $35K 2550 4.9 1000** 1998-2009 4 172SP - [12] [12] [5] [5] [5] [5] [5] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 44 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Aircraft Data References [1] “- Diamond Eclipse Flight Training.” [Online]. Available: http://flighttraining.aopa.org/learntofly/articles/diamond0308.html. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [2] “Cessna 152 - AOPA.” [Online]. Available: http://www.aopa.org/Pilot-Resources/Aircraft-Ownership/Aircraft-Fact-Sheets/Cessna-152. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [3] “CESSNA 152 For Sale At Controller.com -.” [Online]. Available: http://www.controller.com/list/list.aspx?manu=CESSNA&mdltxt=152. [Accessed: 01-Feb-2015]. [4] “Cessna 162 slows to nearly a halt, prompting questions - AOPA.” [Online]. Available: http://www.aopa.org/News-and-Video/All-News/2013/March/14/Cessna-162-slows-to- nearly-a-halt-prompting-questions. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [5] “CESSNA 172 For Sale At Controller.com -.” [Online]. Available: http://www.controller.com/list/list.aspx?SO=10&ETID=1&catid=6&MDLGrp=172&Manu=CESSNA&bcatid=13&Pref=0. [Accessed: 31-Jan-2015]. [6] “Cessna Aircraft For Sale | New and Used Cessna Airplanes at Trade-A-Plane.” [Online]. Available: http://www.trade-a-plane.com/for-sale/aircraft/by-make/Cessna. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [7] “Cessna Skycatcher Has ‘No Future,’ CEO Says | Flying Magazine.” [Online]. Available: http://www.flyingmag.com/blogs/going-direct/cessna-skycatcher-has-no-future-ceo- says. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [8] “Cessna SkyhawkSP. Your Next Wingtips.” [Online]. Available: http://web.archive.org/web/20080307232135/http://skyhawksp.cessna.com/specs.chtml. [Accessed: 11-Apr- 2015]. [9] “Continental Engine IO360ES.” [Online]. Available: http://www.continentalmotors.aero/Engine_Details/Engine_Lookup/. [Accessed: 01-Feb-2015]. [10] “Diamond DA20 - AOPA.” [Online]. Available: http://www.aopa.org/Pilot-Resources/Aircraft-Ownership/Aircraft-Fact-Sheets/Diamond-DA20. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [11] “FAA Registry - Aircraft - Make / Model Inquiry.” [Online]. Available: http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/AcftRef_Inquiry.aspx. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [12] “Lycoming > PRODUCTS > Find An Engine.” [Online]. Available: http://www.lycoming.com/Lycoming/PRODUCTS/FindAnEngine/tabid/234/search_by/model/value/IO-360- L2A/Default.aspx. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [13] “Piper Aircraft For Sale | New and Used Piper Airplanes at Trade-A-Plane.” [Online]. Available: http://www.trade-a-plane.com/for-sale/aircraft/by-make/Piper. [Accessed: 11- Apr-2015]. [14] “Piper Archer Series Single Engine Piston Aircraft - Airplanes For Sale, New & Used Piper Aircraft at Trade-A-Plane.” [Online]. Available: http://www.trade-a- plane.com/search?s-type=aircraft&category=Single+Engine+Piston&make=Piper&model_group=Archer+Series&s-page_size=25&s-page=1&s-seq=4&s-lvl=0. [Accessed: 01- Feb-2015]. [15] “Piper PA 28 Cherokee series aircraft history performance and specifications.” [Online]. Available: http://www.pilotfriend.com/aircraft%20performance/Piper/16.htm. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [16] “Skycatcher reaches inglorious end - AOPA.” [Online]. Available: http://www.aopa.org/News-and-Video/All-News/2014/February/10/Skycatcher.aspx. [Accessed: 11-Apr- 2015]. [17] “Van’s Aircraft - RV-12 General Infomation.” [Online]. Available: https://www.vansaircraft.com/public/rv12.htm. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [18] “Van’s offers factory-built RV-12 - AOPA.” [Online]. Available: http://www.aopa.org/News-and-Video/All-News/2012/October/11/Vans-offers-factory-built-rv-12. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [19] “Vans RV-12 Aircraft For Sale | New & Used Vans RV-12 Aircraft at Trade-A-Plane.” [Online]. Available: http://www.trade-a-plane.com/for-sale/aircraft/by-make/Vans/RV-12. [Accessed: 01-Feb-2015]. [20] “Rotax Aircraft Engines.” [Online]. Available: http://www.lockwood.aero/c-1-rotax-aircraft-engines.aspx. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [21] “Skycatcher - Flight Training.” [Online]. Available: http://flighttraining.aopa.org/magazine/2010/April/Skycatcher.html. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [22] “Diamond DA20-C1 Eclipse Aircraft For Sale | New & Used Diamond DA20-C1 Eclipse Aircraft at Trade-A-Plane.” [Online]. Available: http://www.trade-a-plane.com/for- sale/aircraft/by-make/Diamond/DA20-C1+Eclipse. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015]. [23] “Cessna 172 Aircraft History.” [Online]. Available: http://www.aviationexplorer.com/Cessna_172_Aircraft_Facts_Photos.html. [Accessed: 11-Apr-2015].

GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 45 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Sensitivity Analysis

1 0.9 0.8 Cessna 162

0.7 Van's RV-12

0.6 Cessna 152 0.5 Diamond Eclipse Utility 0.4 0.3 Cessna 172S 0.2 Piper Archer II 0.1 Cessna 172M 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Cessna 172SP MTBF Weight 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5 Utility 0.4 Utility 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Fuel Weight MTTR Weight