GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 1 Research - Senior Design - 2015 FLIGHT SCHOOL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM Acur, Sezen Camacho, Erwin Lohr, Raymond Talley, Alicia GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 2 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Project Overview To deliver a system allowing flight schools to visualize the effects and improve the results of decision making in lowering the cost of operating aircraft at a flight school. This system may be useful to flight training programs that are struggling to maintain operations, contributing to a perceived shortage in the number of pilots available to the aviation industry. GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 3 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Agenda Context Problem and Need Statement Stakeholders System Requirements Method of Analysis Design Results Analysis Conclusion GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 4 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Why Help Flight Schools? There exists a belief that the number of pilots needed by various industries is exceeding the supply and that a major hindrance to the creation of new pilots exists at the level of primary training. Primary training is the process by which student pilots are educated by Certificated Flight Instructors (CFI) at flight schools with the goal of earning a Private Pilot certificate, after which point they may continue training to eventually become Commercial or Airline Transport Pilots (ATP). GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 5 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Pilot Training Life Cycle Source: AOPA [4], Dulles Aviation GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 6 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Higher Component Costs Increase Price of Training 350.0 10 10 4.5 9 9 4 300.0 8 8 ) 3.5 Gal 250.0 7 7 3 6 6 200.0 2.5 5 5 150.0 2 4 4 1.5 ($/ Gasoline Aviation 3 3 (Thousands of of (Thousands Dollars) 100.0 Cost of new Cessna172 newCost of (Thousands of of (Thousands Dollars) 1 2 Training PrivatePilot Cost of 2 Cost of Cost of 50.0 1 1 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 Cost Of Training In Thousands (2012 Dollars) Cost of new Cessna 172 (2015 Dollars) Avg yearly retail sales by refiners Cost Of Training In Thousands (2012 Dollars) Avg yearly wholesale/resale by refiners Source: University of North Dakota [1], Energy Information Administration [2], Smithsonian Air & Space [10], Cessna [11] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 7 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Pilot Throughput is Decreasing 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 Student 40000 ATP Private 30000 Number of New Certificates Newof Number 20000 10000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Source: Federal Aviation Administration [6] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 8 Research - Senior Design - 2015 13% Decrease in Number of Flight Schools 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Number of Flight School Enterprises School Flight of Number 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Source: IBISWorld [5] GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 9 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Problem Statement The hypothesis is that the increased operating cost of aircraft is contributing to higher prices at flight schools, leading to lost customers and struggling businesses. Decreasing Struggling Pilot Businesses Throughput Increasing Rising Training Operating Prices Costs GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 10 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Need Statement With the higher prices of obtaining a license resulting in lower pilot throughput at flight schools, there is a need to assist schools in reducing the costs associated with operating the aircraft used in training new pilots. GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 11 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Stakeholder Relationships GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 12 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Scope The focus will be on private flight schools, with a concentration on the costs directly associated with flying a single-engine, primary trainer aircraft. GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 13 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Mission Requirements MR.1 The system shall provide a set of cost-performance curves for an array of selected aircraft MR.2 The system shall provide a utility analysis across a given set of qualities in each aircraft MR.3 The system shall recommend an aircraft that minimizes the cost of flight school operations GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 14 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Method of Analysis The operation of a homogeneous fleet of aircraft will be stochastically simulated and analyzed for cost performance trends measured against the size of and student demand placed on that fleet. GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 15 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Stochastic Cost of Operations GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 16 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Model Inputs General Parameters • Number of aircraft, instructors • Hourly prices for services rendered • Expected service inter-arrival time (time between flight sessions) • Expected service duration Aircraft Parameters • Aircraft type • MTBF • MTTR • Fuel consumption Simulation Parameters • Simulation duration • Number of repetitions GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 17 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Input Analysis – Maintenance Symbol Distribution μ (hours) Square Error Mean Time MTBF Exponential 463* 0.044 Between Failures Mean Time to MTTR Exponential 53* 0.055 Repair MTBF MTTR *Derived from historical data from one year of two Cessna 172 M flight data from one real flight school GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 18 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Input Analysis – Flight Sessions Symbol Distribution μ (hours) Square Error Interval Between μ Exponential 4 0.030 Flight Sessions Flight Session λ Exponential 1.5 0.003 Duration Interval Between Flight Sessions Flight Session Duration GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 19 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Assumptions The simulation of flight operations is subject to the following constraints: • Flight schools provide service 24/7 • CFIs provide service 24/7 • No queuing delay • Demand for service is static • All operations and costs involve student flights • Maintenance rates are uniform across aircraft types GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 20 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Design of Experiment Case # A/C # CFI Variable Value 1 1-30 1 Demand (flights/day) 6 2 1-30 2 No. Students 128 3 1-30 3 Maintenance Rate ($/hr) 90 4 1-30 4 Student Rate ($/hr) 150 • • • CFI Rate ($/hr) 70 • • • Storage Rate ($/hr) 0.13 • • • Simulation Duration (yrs) 10 30 1-30 30 Repetitions 100 GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 21 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Yearly Profit Margin per Aircraft 100000 50000 0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 -50000 Margin ($) Margin -100000 -150000 Student-to-Aircraft Ratio (S/I Ratio constant at 4.3) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 Margin ($) Margin 20000 10000 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Student-to-Instructor Ratio (S/A ratio constant at 25.6) 푸 Student−Aircraft Ratio 푺 퐐퐈 = 퐪퐮퐚퐧퐭퐢퐭퐲 퐨퐟 퐢퐧퐬퐭퐫퐮퐜퐭퐨퐫퐬 푺 푨 = = 푸푨 퐐퐀 = quantity of aircraft 푸푺 퐐퐒 = quantity of students 푺 푰 = Student−Instructor Ratio = Results are for a Cessna 172 M 푸푰 GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 22 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Income and Costs 1.2 푸풊풏풔풑 = total number of inspections 푸풐풗풓 = total number of engine overhauls total time spent in unexpected maintenance 1 푻푼 = 푪푭 = total cost of flying 푪푴 = total cost of maintenance 0.8 푷푭 = price of fuel per gallon 푷푰 = hourly price of CFI 0.6 푷푴 = hourly price of maintenance 푷푯 = hourly price of tie−downs per aircraft 0.4 푬푭 = fuel consumption rate of aircraft Income / Cost of Operations of Cost / Income Cost = 푪푭 + 푪푴 0.2 푪푭 = 푻푭 푷푭푬푭 + 푷푰 푪푴 = 푻푺 푷푯푸푨 + ퟒퟎퟎퟎ푸풊풏풔풑 + ퟏퟖퟎퟎퟎ푸풐풗풓 + 푷푴푻푼 0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 푷푺 = hourly price of flight session to students Student-to-Aircraft Ratio Revenue = ퟏ. ퟑ푻푭 ퟎ. ퟑ푷푰 + 푷푺 + ퟏퟗퟓ푸푺 Results are for a Cessna 172 M GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 23 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Maintenance Increases as S/A Increases 3500 3000 2500 2000 Hours Flown 1500 Hours Maintained Time (Hours) Time 1000 500 0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Student-to-Aircraft Ratio Results are for a Cessna 172 M GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 24 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Quality of Service – M/M/1 Queuing Delay 8 훌 Expected Wait Time = 7 훍(훍−훌) 6 5 훌 = No. Flight Sessions 4 (per hour) 3 2 훍 = Session Duration Delay Delay (Minutes) 1 (hours) 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 S/A Ratio 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Delay (Minutes) Delay 10 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Arrival Rate GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 25 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Utility Scores 푴 Aircraft 풂 Performance 푴ퟎ 푾풂 = Characteristics ퟑ 푴풂 풏=ퟏ 푴ퟎ W = Weight Maintenance Maintenance Fuel M = Margin Duration (MTTR) Interval (MTBF) Consumption a = Attribute 0.32 0.30 0.38 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Cessna 162 0.87 Van's RV-12 0.68 Cessna 152 0.56 Diamond Eclipse 0.34 Cessna 172S 0.34 Piper Archer II 0.30 Cessna 172M 0.20 Cessna 172SP 0.15 GMU Department of Systems Engineering & Operations 26 Research - Senior Design - 2015 Sensitivity Analysis 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Cessna 162 0.5 Van's RV-12 Utility 0.4 0.3 Cessna 152 0.2 Cessna 172M 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Fuel Weight 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Utility