Business and Policy Perspectives on Micro Launchers Springerbriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology
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SPRINGER BRIEFS IN APPLIED SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY FROM THE EUROPEAN SPACE POLICY INSTITUTE Matteo Tugnoli Martin Sarret Marco Aliberti European Access to Space: Business and Policy Perspectives on Micro Launchers SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology From the European Space Policy Institute More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15974 Matteo Tugnoli • Martin Sarret Marco Aliberti European Access to Space: Business and Policy Perspectives on Micro Launchers 123 Matteo Tugnoli Marco Aliberti European Space Policy Institute European Space Policy Institute Vienna Vienna Austria Austria Martin Sarret European Space Policy Institute Vienna Austria ISSN 2191-530X ISSN 2191-5318 (electronic) SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology ISSN 2523-8582 ISSN 2523-8590 (electronic) SpringerBriefs from the European Space Policy Institute ISBN 978-3-319-78959-0 ISBN 978-3-319-78960-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78960-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018940881 © The Author(s) 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgements The authors would like to express their sincere thanks to ESPI Director, Jean-Jacques Tortora, and ESPI Coordinator of Studies, Sebastien Moranta, for their unremitting and helpful support throughout the course of this project. The authors are furthermore grateful to all the experts and stakeholders interviewed under Chatham House Rule for this report, who contributed with outstanding insights and reflections to the research. Finally, the authors would like in particular to thank Nida Baierl, Jérôme Vila, Chris Larmour, Rolf Janovsky, Florian Loire and Maxime Jambon for reviewing the final draft of the report and providing invaluable suggestions and constructive comments. v Contents 1 Introduction ........................................... 1 1.1 Background ........................................ 1 1.2 Objectives of the Report ............................... 2 1.3 Methodology and Structure ............................. 3 2 Overview on Micro Launchers ............................. 5 2.1 Historical Perspective ................................. 5 2.2 A Trend Embedded in the NewSpace Dynamic .............. 9 2.3 Drivers Behind Micro Launcher Initiatives .................. 11 2.3.1 Commercial Drivers ............................. 12 2.3.2 Institutional Drivers ............................. 14 2.4 Current Developments ................................ 16 2.4.1 Projects Overview .............................. 16 2.4.2 Business Considerations .......................... 23 2.4.3 Launch Sites .................................. 26 3 Business Perspectives for Micro Launchers ................... 29 3.1 Methodological Approach .............................. 29 3.2 Market Analysis and Foresight: Key Trends in the Small Satellites Launch Market ............................... 33 3.2.1 Small Satellites Market Trends ..................... 33 3.2.2 Impact on the Launch Market ...................... 38 3.2.3 Small Satellites Market Forecast .................... 41 3.3 SmallSat Market Segmentation .......................... 43 3.3.1 Mission Typology .............................. 43 3.3.2 Customer Typology ............................. 51 3.3.3 Characterising Customer Expectations ................ 52 3.4 Competitive Analysis: Launch Solutions for Small Satellites ..... 53 3.4.1 Piggyback .................................... 54 3.4.2 Deployment from the ISS and Orbital Capsules ......... 56 vii viii Contents 3.4.3 Rideshare .................................... 58 3.4.4 Dedicated Launch in Micro Launchers ............... 59 3.5 Benchmarking on Smallsat Launch Options ................. 60 3.6 Value Proposition of, and Stakes for, Micro Launchers ......... 63 4 Policy Perspectives for Europe ............................. 67 4.1 Micro Launchers in Europe: Status, Drivers and Stakes ........ 67 4.1.1 Supply: Status, Outlook and Funding ................ 67 4.1.2 What Demand for European Micro Launchers? ......... 73 4.1.3 Assessing the Rationale for Micro Launchers in Europe .................................... 79 4.2 Policy Considerations for Europe......................... 81 4.2.1 Micro Launchers as an Institutional Programme? ........ 81 4.2.2 Institutional Support for the Ecosystem Around Micro Launchers .................................... 83 4.3 Conclusions ........................................ 89 List of Acronyms............................................. 91 References .................................................. 95 About the Authors Matteo Tugnoli has worked as Research Fellow at the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) in Vienna, Austria, since January 2015, where he manages and carries out research projects on space policy and strategy. He further holds the ESPI International Secretariat for the European Interparliamentary Space Conference (EISC) since May 2015. Prior to joining ESPI, he worked as Trainee in the Relations with Member States Department, Director’s General Cabinet, of the European Space Agency (ESA HQ) in Paris, France. He started his space career as Research Assistant at the Institute for Radioastronomy, National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) in Bologna, Italy, where he carried out research on diffuse synchrotron radio emission (radio halos and relics) in clusters of galaxies. Mr. Tugnoli has a Bachelor of Science in Astronomy and a Master of Science in Astrophysics and Cosmology, from the University of Bologna, Italy. He also has a Master in Space Policies and Institutions from the Italian Society for International Organizations (SIOI) and Italian Space Agency (ASI) in Rome, Italy. Martin Sarret is a French researcher seconded by the Centre national des études spatiales (CNES) at the European Space Policy Institute. The current focus of his research is Space Security and transatlantic cooperation in the field. Martin gradu- ated in Modern Languages—English, German, Italian—and Management with a minor in Astronomy. As an undergraduate, he completed two exchange programmes in Germany, one of which was funded by the German Academic Exchange Office. He holds a M.Sc. in Science and Technology Policy from Sussex Business School (Science Policy Research Unit) and is currently completing an M.A. in Strategic Management at the University of Paris Sud. Prior to joining ESPI, he studied Russian at the French National Institute for Oriental Civilizations and Languages (INALCO). He also worked on Launcher Development Policy and interagency cooperation for the Foundation for Strategic Research, a Paris-based think tank specialized in defence matters and the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in collaboration with the OECD Space Forum. ix x About the Authors Marco Aliberti works as Resident Fellow at the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) in Vienna, Austria, where he has carried out and published a number of research projects in the areas of access to space and human spaceflight, governance and international relations of space, and Asia’s space programmes, particularly those of China, Japan and India. Prior to joining ESPI in October 2012, he held positions consistent with his academic background in East Asian Studies. Mr. Aliberti graduated in Oriental Languages and Cultures at the University of Rome “La Sapienza” and obtained a M.A. in International Relations from the Italian Diplomatic Academy (SIOI) in Rome. He also completed a Master of Advanced Studies in Space Policy and Institutions with the Italian Space Agency (ASI), SIOI and the National Research Council (CNR); Security Studies at the Institute of Global Studies—School of Government in Rome; as well as International Asian Studies at the University of Naples “L’Orientale”, with a specialisation in East Asian Relations. List of Figures Fig. 2.1 Main trends of the NewSpace dynamic. Source Vernile (2018).............................................. 10 Fig. 3.1 Business model canvas. Source Strategyzer (https://strategyzer.com) ................................ 30 Fig. 3.2 Value proposition canvas. Source Strategyzer (https://strategyzer.com) ................................ 31