TM Vector Pipeline
Customer Meeting October 9, 2014
Overview TM Vector Pipeline
• Welcome – Pete Cianci
• Vector Update – Amy Bruhn & Matt Malinowski
• DTE Update – David Slater Steve Hohf
• Enbridge Update – Bruce Herdman
• Discussion TM Vector Pipeline
Amy Bruhn Manager, Transportation Services
TM Vector Pipeline Vector Update
Web Site Redesign
Tariff Changes
NAESB
Abandonment Cost Recovery
Mastio Survey TM Vector Pipeline Updated Website TM Vector Pipeline Tariff Changes
• Force Majeure definition changed to be consistent with FERC policy • Reservation Charge Credits for Firm Service • Procedures for Posting and Awarding Capacity • Reservation of Capacity for Potential Expansion Projects TM Vector Pipeline NAESB Version 2.1 Standards
• Published April 30, 2013 but not yet approved by FERC. Possible NOPR in the Spring with Fall implementation, including changes to the gas day
• Location common codes eliminated and replaced with proprietary codes
• Some field name changes
• Behind-the-scenes data set changes TM Vector Pipeline Gas-Electric Coordination
• Gas nomination schedule changing to improve coordination of natural gas and electricity markets. • Comments in response to FERC NOPR RM14-2-000 due November 28
TM Vector Pipeline The Gas Day is Changing
Current FERC Proposal NAESB Proposal 9 a.m. Gas Day Start 4 a.m. Gas Day Start
Nomination Gas Flow Nomination Gas Flow Nomination Gas Flow Cycle Timely 11:30 a.m. 9:00 a.m. 1:00 p.m. 4:00 a.m. 1:00 p.m. start of gas day
Evening 6:00 p.m. 9:00 a.m. 6:00 p.m. 4:00 a.m. 6:00 p.m. start of gas day
ID 1 10:00 a.m. 5:00 p.m. 8:00 a.m. 12:00 p.m. 10:00 a.m. 2:00 p.m.
ID 2 5:00 p.m. 9:00 p.m. 10:30 a.m. 4:00 p.m. 2:30 p.m. 6:00 p.m.
ID 3 4:00 p.m. 7:00 p.m. 7:00 p.m. 10:00 p.m.
ID 4 7:00 p.m. 9:00 p.m. TM Vector Pipeline Abandonment Cost Recovery
• The National Energy Board (NEB) issued its Reasons for Decision (RH-2- 2008) for the Land Matters Consultation Initiative (LMCI) Stream 3 in May 2009, whereby it required regulated Group 1 and Group 2 pipelines to file for future abandonment cost recovery mechanisms.
• Vector’s physical abandonment plan was filed with the NEB, reflecting estimated future abandonment costs of $4.8 million ($CAN).
• Vector’s proposed abandonment cost collection and set aside mechanisms was filed with the NEB on May 31, 2013 and approved on June 5, 2014.
• Future abandonment costs are to be collected from shippers commencing January 1, 2015 over a period of 40 years and placed into a trust for safekeeping.
• The abandonment surcharge is proposed to be CAN $0.0004 per GJ, but is still illustrative. It will be charged similar to the ACA surcharge. Filing of abandonment surcharge to be made with NEB by December 5, 2014. TM Vector Pipeline Mastio Customer Survey
• Baseline Requirements – Items a company is expected to be competent in • Conscious Differentiators – Actively drive supplier selection decisions • Latent Differentiators – Correlate highly to customer satisfaction • Low Impact – Parity with competitors is sufficient TM Vector Pipeline Baseline Needs
Firm gas transportation is highly reliable.
Scheduled gas volumes are accurate.
Timely transmittal of invoices.
Competitive pricing of service.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vector 2014 Vector 2012 Vector 2010 TM Vector Pipeline Conscious Differentiators
Integrity of transportation provider.
Accuracy of gas metering statements & invoices.
Timely notification before initiating restrictions.
Contract negotiations are handled efficiently.
Historically dependable in meeting commitments.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vector 2014 Vector 2012 Vector 2010 TM Vector Pipeline Latent Differentiators
Ease of doing business.
Timely resolution of problems.
Ease of structuring credit arrangements.
Personnel respond quickly to requests.
Quality of pipeline initiated communications.
Direct access to ample & diverse supply.
Ease of use of Vector's website.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vector 2014 Vector 2012 Vector 2010 TM Vector Pipeline Low Impact
Operational information is readily available.
Ease of pipelines system for nominating & reporting.
Expertise of personnel.
Ease of use of the QuickNom system.
Straightforward capacity release system
Easy to contact the right person for help.
Representatives who listen well.
Contract execution handled efficiently.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vector 2014 Vector 2012 Vector 2010 TM Vector Pipeline Vector vs. The Industry
Firm gas transportation is highly reliable. Scheduled gas volumes are accurate. Accuracy of gas metering statements &… Competitive pricing of service. Timely notification before initiating… Contract negotiations are handled efficiently. Operational information is readily available. Ease of system for nominating & reporting. Expertise of personnel. Straightforward capacity release system Personnel respond quickly to requests. Easy to contact the right person for help. Representatives who listen well. Quality of pipeline initiated communications. Direct access to ample & diverse supply. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vector 2014 Industry 2014 TM Vector Pipeline Survey Action Plan
We continue to seek areas where we can improve: • Posting monthly calendar of planned maintenance. • Additional training for the scheduling staff • Adding a back-up for the scheduling hotline TM Vector Pipeline
Matt Malinowski Manager, Market Development
TM Vector Pipeline Vector Update
Year in Review Operations Expansion / Open Season Near Term Opportunities Scheduled Deliveries TM Vector Pipeline (Includes Longhaul, Shorthaul, Backhaul and Segmentation)
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000 Average Dth/Day 600,000
400,000
200,000
- Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Canada U.S. Long Haul Capacity TM Vector Pipeline Winter 2013/14
Winter 2013/14 System Peak – 2,340 MDth January 7, 2014 Storage Wash 10 Bluewater DTE Gas APL/NBPL Rec - 1793 Rec - 547 St. Clair 195 58 22 455 Del - 1231
Guardian NIPSCO Jackson DTE Gas Consumers Del - 352 Del - 137 Del - 80 Del - 433 Del - 107
TM Vector Pipeline
Operations TM Vector Pipeline 2014 Compressor Work Completed • Springville Unit #2 exchanged – Spring 2014
• Athens engine exchanged – Spring 2014
• Rebuilt exhaust stacks at Washington – Spring 2014
• Highland Compressor Assembly – September 2014 TM Vector Pipeline Washington Stacks Old vs New TM Vector Pipeline 2014 Pipeline Maintenance
• Pipeline Integrity Work - 42-inch system – Competed in Canada in September – Currently occurring on U.S. 42-inch – Multiple sites for exposure and inspection – Verifying data from 2013 smart pigging TM Vector Pipeline 2014 Pipeline Maintenance TM Vector Pipeline 2014 Pipeline Maintenance TM Vector Pipeline Future Maintenance
• Pipeline Integrity Work - 36-inch system – Scheduled for Nov. 10-14 – 5 to 8 sites for exposure and inspection – Verifying data from 2013 smart pigging – Reduced pressure required – Will impact firm! TM Vector Pipeline Future Maintenance
• Springville Unit #1 – replace entire control system – Scheduled for November 2014 (2-3 weeks) – Older equipment no longer OEM supported – Eventually impacts all Springville and Highland engines – Also replacing engine due to runtime TM Vector Pipeline 2015 Proposed Work
• Additional electronic upgrades throughout the system due to older equipment being obsolete • New SCADA system • Continue engine exchanges and other preventative maintenance • No impacts to Firm expected
TM Vector Pipeline
New Facilities TM Vector Pipeline Potential Interconnects • Greenfield South – New delivery in Ontario for a 300MW Power Plant – Commercial In-Service 2015
• Chicago Markets - 2015 – Provides direct access to large LDC market
TM Vector Pipeline
2017 Expansion Vector
TM Vector Pipeline Expansion Capabilities
• Short Haul Lake Huron WISCONSIN MICHIGAN • Scalable Incremental Capacity • Lease Line Loop • Potential Compression
Lake Michigan Washington ONTARIO Highland Dawn (Union) Detroit
Chicago Athens Lake Erie Joliet Springville TM Vector Pipeline 2017 Expansion • Will physically expand the east side of Vector in a scalable project – Up to 54 miles of 42-inch loop between Milford Junction and Belle River – Potentially adding compression at Washington and Belle River – Other station upgrades as needed • Vector has a PA with Nexus and is working with ET Rover to be anchor shippers for a 2017 Expansion
TM Vector Pipeline 2017 Expansion • New supply of 1.3 to 2.1 Bcf/d • Expiring Capacity on Vector will be reserved for this project:
Date Capacity Available (Dth/d) Dec 14 – Mar 15 68,885 Apr 15 – Oct 15 78,885 Nov 15 75,885 Dec 15 – Mar 16 435,885 Apr 16 – Oct 16 431,028 Nov 16 456,600 Dec 16 – Mar 17 541,600 Apr 17 – Oct 17 566,028 Nov 17 capacity will
be reserved for Nov 17 859,347 expansion TM Vector Pipeline Open Season • Currently conducting a Binding Open Season for capacity for November 2017 • All conforming bids will be considered including new supply receipts to Dawn, Joliet to Dawn and backhauls • Bids are due Tuesday, November 4th, 2014 by 4 p.m. ECT
TM Vector Pipeline Timeline
• Fall 2014 – Initiate Engineering and Environmental Field Surveys • Winter 2014 – Conduct Open Houses, Agency and Stakeholder Outreach • Winter 2014 – Begin FERC/NEPA Pre-filing process • Summer 2015 – FERC 7(c) Application • Spring 2016 – FERC issues EA or EIS • Fall 2016 – FERC issues certificate • Winter 2016 – Initiate Construction Clearing • Spring 2017 – Commence Construction • November 2017 – Target In-Service Date
TM Vector Pipeline
Available Capacity TM Vector Pipeline Capacity
• 68,885 Dth/d available Dec. 1, 2014 • 91,885 Dth/d available April 1, 2015 • Seasonal or annual service on these shorter term volumes • Shippers should bid on this during Open Season if considering long term transport
TM Vector Pipeline Weather Predictions TM Vector Pipeline Weather Predictions
• The Old Farmer’s Almanac states “Winter will be colder than normal..” and for 2015 “Summer will be hotter than normal…” for the Lower Lakes Region • This publication is correct about 2/3rds of the time! • Don’t get caught out in the cold, get your space reserved on Vector soon!
Vector PipelineTM
Questions
Gas Storage and Pipelines Business Update
Vector Shipper Meeting October 9, 2014
Gas Storage and Pipelines (“GSP”) is one of DTE Energy’s non-utility businesses
Strong, Stable and Growing Complementary Non-Utility Utilities Businesses ~80% of DTE Energy’s Earnings ~20% of DTE Energy’s Earnings DTE Electric Gas Storage & Pipelines • 10th largest U.S. electric utility • Transports and stores natural gas • 2.1 million distribution customers • 91 Bcf of gas storage; 535 miles of pipeline in Southeast Michigan Washington 10 Storage Corp. (100%) • Fully regulated by the Michigan Public Service Commission Vector Pipeline (40%) Millennium Pipeline (26.25%) DTE Michigan Gathering Holding DTE Gas Company (100%) • 11th largest U.S. gas utility Bluestone Gathering Company (100%) • 138 Bcf of working gas storage Proposed NEXUS Gas Transmission capacity; purchases 120 – 150 Bcf of gas annually Power & Industrial Projects • 1.2 million distribution customers in • Owns and operates energy assets Southeast Michigan • 900 Bcf annual throughput Industrial / utility solid fuels • Fully regulated by the Michigan Utility services and renewable energy Public Service Commission Energy Trading • Gas Midstream Services • Transports gas on more than 60 pipelines • Asset management and sales to major utilities • Producer services, including risk management
2 DTE is developing a gas midstream business with multiple growth platforms
Michigan Gathering Marcellus Platform
Michigan Platform
Utica Platform
NEXUS Gas Transmission Pipeline Gathering Storage
3 A key theme across the platforms is to provide midstream services in growing shale regions
Millennium Pipeline & Expansions Proposed NEXUS Gas • Includes Storage, • 182 mile pipeline traversing Transmission Michigan gathering northern tier of Marcellus • ~ $1.5 billion investment projects, Vector Pipeline, • DTE stake ~ $500 million and DTE Gas Bluestone Gathering and Pipeline • Strong customer support • Investigating expansions • Connects Southwestern Energy • Target in-service late 2017 related to shale gas and Cabot production to inflows Tennessee and Millennium
4 Marcellus production growth drives Millennium expansions
Bi-directional flow Hancock Compressor New Dominion Interconnect Station (15,000 HP)
• Millennium providing services East and West Minisink Compressor (1.2+ Bcf/d) Station (15,000 HP)
• Bluestone deliveries ramping up to 650 MMcf/d
• Laser ramping up to 400+ MMcf/d
• Minisink Compressor increases capacity to Ramapo to 675 MMcf/d; 6/1/13 in-service
• Hancock Compressor increases capacity to Ramapo to 820 MMcf/d; 4/3/14 in-service
• New interconnect with Dominion (200 MMcf/d)
5 Bluestone Lateral and In-field Gathering System (Susquehanna Gathering – “SGC”)
Bluestone lateral
Connects Southwestern Energy (SWN) and Cabot gas production to the Tennessee and Millennium pipelines • 44.5 miles of 16” & 20” pipeline • 2 delivery points: Capacity of 278 MMcf/d SWN Production Area Summary to Millennium and 300 MMcf/d to TGP • Core Range Area: ~50,000 acres • 15,260 HP of compression in-service; • 75 wells flowing spread over 45 8,720 HP planned for June 2015 well pad locations • In-service dates to market pipelines: Tennessee Pipeline: 11/28/2012 Millennium Pipeline: 5/11/2013
In-field gathering - SGC
The in-field gathering system connects SWN’s wells to the Bluestone lateral • ~ 60 miles of 12” high pressure steel + 16” plastic pipeline • 3 Compressor Station Locations with total of 38,100 HP in-service; 7,620 HP planned for June 2015
6 NEXUS Gas Transmission Overview
• New pipeline to connect Appalachian basin supply to upper Midwest markets
• Strong lead development partners - DTE Energy and Spectra Energy
• 250 mile, large diameter pipeline delivering at least 1.5 Bcf/d
• In service date of November 2017 for the greenfield project
• Increased access to Appalachia production will provide reliable, cost- effective supplies of natural gas to local distribution companies, industrial users and natural gas fired electricity generators
• With commitments from upper Midwest LDCs and Appalachia producers, NEXUS has sufficient market support to advance development of the project
NEXUS connects Appalachian Shale to Midwest markets 7 NEXUS route is significantly de-risked
• Approximately 1/3 of route is using existing infrastructure
• Only one river crossing (Maumee)
• No new international border crossings or cross border permits
• Greenfield route is 75% co-located in utility corridors
• OPEN project in-service November 2015
• Phase I NEXUS capacity in-service Kensington November 2015
• Significant engineering work completed TETCO OPEN to date
Clarington • Government relations and stakeholder outreach work well underway
8 Overview of existing storage business
DTE Energy Gas Washington 10 DTE Gas Asset Map Field / Capacity Bcf Bcf Washington 10 66.0 Six Lakes 40.0 Washington 28 15.6 West Columbus 22.5 Shelby 2 9.6 Columbus 16.3 Total 91.2 Belle River 60.0 Total 138.8 Less Utility (85.4) Third Party 53.4
Customer Mix LDC’s 26% LDC’s 21% Pipelines 19% Pipelines 0% Marketers 52% Marketers 72% Banks 3% Banks 7%
LEGEND
Service Territory
Transmission Pipeline
Storage Field
Compressor Station
Vector Pipeline
9 Long-term storage outlook: Overcast but pleasant
U.S. Supply / Demand Growth Cumulative Five-Year Growth; Bcf/d
Supply Growth Outpaces Demand Growth Outpaces • Over the past five years, the Demand Growth Supply Growth tremendous growth in U.S. 12.7 shale production outpaced the 12.4 corresponding growth in 11.5 demand 10.2 • Forecasts for the next five Consumption years anticipate demand growth exceeding supply, with increased LNG exports and pipeline exports to Mexico Production Consumption Production • These factors will tighten the supply / demand balance and LNG Exports support upward pressure on natural gas prices and volatility – both positive signs for the
Exports to Mexico gas storage market Exports to Mexico
2009 – 2014 2014 - 2019
Source: Wood Mackenzie 10 Questions?
11 NORTH AMERICAN GAS FUNDAMENTALS
Bruce Herdman ENBRIDGE INC.
Vector Pipeline Customer Meeting
Charleston, SC October 9, 2014 Legal Notice
This presentation includes certain forward looking information (FLI) to provide Enbridge shareholders and potential investors with information about Enbridge and management's assessment of its future plans and operations, which may not be appropriate for other purposes. FLI is typically identified by words such as "anticipate", "expect", "project", "estimate", "forecast", "plan", "intend", "target", "believe" and similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Although we believe that our FLI is reasonable based on the information available today and processes used to prepare it, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and you are cautioned against placing undue reliance on FLI. FLI inherently involves a variety of assumptions, risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results, levels of activity and achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied in our FLI. Material assumptions include: expected supply and demand for crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids; prices of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids; expected exchange rates; inflation; interest rates; availability and price of labour and pipeline construction materials; operational reliability; customer project approvals; maintenance of support and regulatory approvals for Enbridge’s projects; anticipated in-service dates and weather.
Our FLI is subject to risks and uncertainties pertaining to operating performance, regulatory parameters, project approval and support, construction schedules, weather, economic and competitive conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, commodity prices and supply and demand for commodities, including but not limited to those discussed more extensively in our filings with Canadian and US securities regulators. The impact of any one risk, uncertainty or factor on any particular FLI is not determinable with certainty as these are interdependent and our future course of action depends on management's assessment of all information available at the relevant time. Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any FLI, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All FLI in this presentation is expressly qualified in its entirety by these cautionary statements.
This presentation may make reference to certain financial measures, such as adjusted net income, which are not recognized under GAAP. Reconciliations to the most closely related GAAP measures are included in the MD&A filings and/or Supplementary Financial Information available on our website or in the slides that accompany this presentation, if applicable. 45 2014 started with extreme winter weather that broke physical market records and triggered spikes in gas prices
Polar Vortex
Record daily gas and power demand Highest NYMEX in 30 mos. Largest 1-day NYMEX move Record weekly $100 gas in Boston storage withdrawal $70 gas in Chicago
Propane prices spike near $5/gal at Conway in January 46 46 A Polar Vortex safety moment: Don’t do this!!
47 Lower 48 storage started the injection season at its lowest level since 2003 and will end up below recent norms
Expected end of season inventory: 3.4 – 3.5 Tcf, well below 5-year normal.
Extreme cold during Winter 2013/14 “polar vortex” and resulting record gas demand led to highest winter storage drawdown on record; lowest start to the injection season since 2003
48 Source: EIA Robust production from the Northeast and a cool summer have contributed to strong storage injections this year and…
Source: NOAA Source: Average of Consultants
49 …have led to a narrowing of the storage deficit
End of Season Deficit: <400 Bcf
Beginning of Season Deficit: 865 Bcf
50 Source: EIA Gas prices have been highly correlated to the storage deficit; prices have been falling as the deficit narrows
Gas prices rose by over $2 as the storage deficit As the storage deficit fell more than quadrupled off, Nymex price followed between November and suit February
Source: EIA 51 Appalachian gas production should continue its strong growth trajectory for some time…
Appalachian Production 30
25 Utica 20
15 Marcellus BCF/d
10
5
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: 2014 Enbridge Fundamentals View 52 In particular, the Utica shale is an emerging play where production is set to increase substantially
1000 600 900 Average Daily Production Rate Permits Issued for Utica Drilling 800 500 700
600 400 500 300 MMcfd 400
300 200
200 No. of Permits 100 100
0 0 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average Daily Production By County 2nd Q 2014
County MMcfd
CARROLL 404 BELMONT 155 NOBLE 109 MONROE 101 HARRISON 86 Others 119
Source: Ohio DNR 53 E&P improvements are providing almost exponential gains in efficiency and productivity
• Greater horizontal drilling • Faster drilling speed • Longer lateral lengths • Defined sweet spots • Increased frac stages • Frac technology better matched to • Fit-for-purpose rigs geology • Quicker spud-to-spud times 54 Source: EIA Ongoing improvements in drilling technologies have rapidly increased efficiency and reduced costs
Southwestern’s Improved Efficiency in the Fayetteville
55 Source: Southwestern Energy Shale gas in the Northeast, South and WCSB account for most of North America supply growth
• The Northeast will provide the most production growth over the next decade • WCSB growth driven by NGL-rich plays & supply for LNG projects
56 Source: 2014 Enbridge Fundamentals View There are several compelling reasons to support higher future WCSB gas supply
NGL Value Competitive Cost
Colossal Resources
Foreign investment 57 LNG Exports Hedging Duvernay & Montney plays will lead supply growth in the WCSB
2013 Resource Assessment of the Montney by NEB/AER/BCOGC:
• Huge areal extent: 130,000 km2 • Marketable natural gas = 449 Tcf (think Marcellus) • Marketable NGL = 14.5 billion barrels • Marketable oil = 1.1 billion barrels
2012 Resource Assessment of the Duvernay by AGS and AER: • P90 natural gas = 353 Tcf • P90 NGL = 7.5 billion barrels • P90 Oil = 44.1 billion barrels
58 WCSB shale and rich gas plays are very competitive
6.00 2014 Average Breakeven Cost for Select Plays
5.00
4.00
3.00 Mcf US$/ 2.00
1.00
0.00
59 Source: Wood Mackenzie 1H2014 Gas Tool Exploitation of rich gas and de-risking of LNG supply leading to higher gas rig counts in the WCSB; points to higher gas (and NGL) production ahead
250 Average Monthly WCSB Gas Rig Count
Most active winter since 2010 200 2014 Most active summer since 2008 2013
150 Rigs
2012 100 Active Gas Gas Active
50
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
60 Source: Beaver Drilling, Baker Hughes Increased development of the Montney and Duvernay plays, to exploit rich gas and support LNG exports, will drive long-term growth in the WCSB
20 WCSB Gas Productive Capacity
18 History Forecast 16
14
/d 12 Bcf 10
8
6
4
2
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Horn River Duvernay Montney Conventional
61 Source: 2014 ENB Fundamentals View The upside risk to Lower 48 gas demand is growing with recent EPA legislation and additional LNG and industrial project announcements
LNG Export Outlook Remains Strong Proposed changes to the US approval process could result in a greater volume of exports, creating EPA Clean Power Plan upside for US exports Announced Industrial Demand Robust EPA Estimates that the plan will create 3.3 Bcf/d Chemical project of Additional Gas Demand announcements swell to For Power Generation 148, worth $110B
Sources of Upside Risk to Demand
62 Power generation and new industrial gas demand growth will be strongest in the South and Midwest with more growth post-2020
70 4
557 266 533 1,770 139
223
199 546 3 6
1,592 2,161
996
35 79 2013-2025 (mmcfd) 354 Coal retirements = 6,617
Industrial = 2,916
63 Source: ENB, Average of Consultants North American LNG exports to Asia should be competitive and will boost gas demand
North American LNG Exports 14
12
10 BC Bcf/d 8
6
4 US
2
0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
64 Source: 2014 ENB Fundamentals View Growing Mexican gas demand and increasing reliance on piped imports will be an important market balancer in the near term
Upside Risk Downside Risk
Growing Mexican economy 6th largest shale gas resource in the world 40+ announced gas-fired power Constitutional amendment projects (25 GW by 2026); allowing private investment in oil Mexican Cross Border Capacity by 2015 strong industrial growth and gas sector Limited Pemex development of Government desire to be less Current Capacity 2.6 Bcfd resource – reallocation of capital dependent on piped imports towards oil projects Los Ramones 2.1 Bcfd Northwest 0.77 Bcfd Key basins threaten by water Pipeline bottlenecks within Other Laterals/Expansions 0.59 Bcfd shortages and drug gangs Mexico Total ~ 6 Bcfd 65 Source: 2014 ENB Fundamentals View Flows on the TCPL mainline have been “high” as WCSB production is attracted to export and eastern Canadian markets but are expected to decline over time
• Flows east on TransCanada mainline have remained over 3 Bcf/d so far this summer, largely due to high levels of yearly contracting incentivized by uneconomic IT flows • The Alberta storage deficit will only be alleviated by lower exports or higher production
Empress Volumes 6.0 Annual Monthly 5.0
4.0
3.0 Bcf/d
2.0
1.0
0.0
Contracted Flowed Future Contracted
66 Source: TransCanada, Bentek Appalachian gas will push into the South while traditional flows from the Gulf will flip to serve LNG exports and Mexico
Major change in gas flows between 2014 and 2025
2.7 LNG 4.8 WCSB Exports (0.6)
0.9 (0.9)
Appalachia Rockies 0.6 2.0 3.0 0.7 LNG Exports 1.4 0.6 1.0 (0.7) Red = Decrease Mid Continent Blue = Increase 0.6 2.2 0.7 1.3 Only Flows > 0.3 Bcf/d shown 1.7 Permian Gulf Coast 1.7 5.0 (0.7)
MX 0.5 2.3 GoM Exports LNG 67 Offshore Source: ENB Fundamentals View (GPCM 1) - July 2014 Exports Many projects have been proposed to provide market access for strongly growing Appalachian gas supply
Spectra/DTE NEXUS Pipeline TETCO Uniontown to Gas City Rockies Express, ET Rover + 5.4 BCFD
68 Source: Range Resources (modified) Appalachian infrastructure constraints expected to begin easing in 2015 – Midwest is a takeaway capacity focus area
Strong production growth in Appalachia…gas pushing into other markets
Alliance
Canadian supplies relatively unaffected by REX reversal Northern Border
Vector
Rex East – West, 1.8 Bcf/d
Rockies gas to be NGPL, Texas Eastern, 0.35 Bcf/d increasingly displaced by 0.75 Bcf/d Texas Gas Utica supplies 0.58 Bcf/d Several projects ANR, proposed to 0.6 Bcf/d take gas South
• First target market has been new infrastructure into the constrained US Northeast • Next markets have been Ontario and lower Midwest, displacing some Canadian and Rockies supplies respectively • Gas increasingly to flow South from both the Midwest and directly from Appalachia via backhauls • REX East – West displaces Rockies gas, but Canadian and N.D. supply to Midwest will be relatively unaffected
69 Source: ENB Gas & NGL Fundamentals View (GPCM 1) - July 2014 Summary
. US gas production will be rising – seems set to surprise to the upside . Upstream technologies still continuing to evolve and improve . Associated gas (from oil) and rich gas volumes continue to increase . Appalachia will be the epicenter of growth . Canadian gas production will increase as producers target NGLs and de-risk acreage for LNG projects . Gas demand trying to catch up with production growth
. Any significant demand growth is still a couple of years away…but, then a Super-Cycle?? . Industrial projects under construction; LNG projects look to be proceeding; MX exports . Gas-fired generation will gain from MATS and EPA Clean Power rule but, renewables are expanding market share (mostly at the expense of gas) . Traditional gas flows are becoming “history”
. US gas generally wants to flow South (to southern US markets, Mexico or offshore) . WCSB gas will increasingly be pulled (by LNG) & pushed (by Appalachia) west . Henry Hub prices should increase moderately with support from new demand . Northeast basis will fluctuate with growing supply and lumpy capacity additions . Generally, basis in supply areas is widening to Henry and some regional basis in market areas is narrowing to Henry 70
TM Vector Pipeline
Discussion
Vector PipelineTM
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