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Swaziland VAC Monitoring System Quarterly Bulletin

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Swaziland VAC Monitoring System Quarterly Bulletin SWAZ IL AND V UL NERA BIL TI Y A SSE SSM E NT COMMI TTEE Swaziland VAC Monitoring System Quarterly Bulletin 1st Quarter 2010 February 2010 Updates • The Swazi VAC pre- sented its 2010 Work Summary for 1st Quarter 2010 plan to the SADC VAC Annual Organ- isational Meeting • The Government is reviewing the National Disaster Management Policy with (AOM) held in Living- the aim of updating and providing a well-coordinated framework for disasters in stone in December Swaziland. 2009. • According to the Central Bank of Swaziland, the consumer price inflation dropped • The El Niño Contin- to single digits again in 2009 and is expected to remain in single digits for the next gency Plan, led by the UN Inter-agency few years. Interest rates have been falling since the end of 2008 and were expected Committee is taking to end the year at 7 percent. place. • Reduced maize production is expected in the Lowveld and Lubombo Plateau this • The Swazi VAC plans season due to reduced planning area and erratic weather conditions. to undertake its post- • The October 2009, the Swazi VAC/WFP household survey found that households in harvest assessment in the Lowveld agro-zone have the worst food consumption in the country, followed May, 2010. by those in the Middleveld and then the Lubombo Plateau. More than 80% of the households in the Highveld had acceptable food consumption. • The VAC/CHS survey found that purchasing power was highest in the salary/wages Inside this issue: livelihood group (E 50 person/month), followed by skilled trade (E 45 person/month) while the median per capita income for gifts/begging households was zero. • According to the UNICEF publication, Tracking Progress on Child and Maternal Nutri- tion (2009) Swaziland is one of the countries that has low underweight prevalence Economic (5%) but unacceptably high stunting rates (29%) 2 Conditions Agricultural Pro- 2 Update on Policy duction • The Government is reviewing the National Disaster Management Policy with the aim of updating and providing a well-coordinated framework for disasters in Swaziland. Food 3 • A recent International Monetary Fund mission (Nov-Dec 09) to Swaziland for an consumption Article IV Consultation noted that the 2008 food and fuel crisis followed by the global economic crisis in 2009 impacted the country and led to a significant drop in transfers from the SACU, has had a negative impact on medium-term fiscal sustainability. Markets and 3 Prices • Just months after releasing Swaziland’s country strategy paper for the period of 2009- 2013, the African Development Bank decided to focus its financial assistance toward budget support for the Kingdom of Swaziland. The bank’s country economist informed that several of AfDB’s proposed projects in the indicative lending program have been put Livelihoods 3 on hold to make way for the budget support allocation. The proposed initiatives involve improving road infrastructure, water supply and irrigation and health service delivery, as well as strengthening the educational sector. Nonetheless, some of these projects will Swaziland - Key most likely be included in the pipeline for 2011. 4 Facts • The country strategy paper for the 2009-2013 period seeks to help address extreme poverty, high HIV/AIDs incidence, and unemployment by enhancing productivity and competitiveness through infrastructure development as well as promoting human capac- Health and ity development. 4 Nutrition Page 2 Swaziland VAC Monitoring System Quarterly Bulletin Economic Conditions • According to the Central Bank of Swaziland, the consumer price inflation dropped to single Projected % Change digits again in 2009 and is expected to remain in single digits for the next few years. • Interest rates have been falling since the end of 2008 and were expected to end the year at 7 percent. 2009 2010 • The exchange rate is expected to depreciate at a slow pace in the coming years due to the anticipated recovery of the US economy Consumer Price Index - CPI (%y/y) and subsequent Real GDP 0.5 2.6 14.0% strengthening of the US dollar. 12.0% Consumer • The headline inflation 10.0% 7.8 6.9 Prices rate for December 8.0% 2009 is 4.50% which 6.0% Source: World Economic Out- is 0.06 index points look, October 2009 higher than the cor- 4.0% responding annual 2.0% rate of 4.44% ob- 0.0% served in November 2009. 2005a 2006a 2007a 2008a 2009f 2010f 2111f “Reduced maize production is Agricultural Production expected in the • Swaziland has experienced declining agricultural production over the last decade due to im- Lowveld and pacts of successive years of crop failures. The prolonged drought and climate variability/ Lubombo change (dry spells, high temperature, and erratic rainfall), production under rainfed condi- tions and the declining use of improved agricultural technology, increasing commodity prices Plateau this including inputs, poverty, and the effects of HIV and AIDS have all compounded the situation. • In December, dry spells in the Lowveld and Lubombo Plateau affected maize crop produc- season due to tion. By December the total area planted with maize in the Lowveld was 7,045 ha compared to 14,700 ha in normal years while the area planted with maize in the Lubombo Plateau was reduced planning 2,300 ha compared to 2,400 ha. area and erratic • The graph below shows reported area cultivated by agro-zone for rural households in the October 2009 VAC/CHS survey. More than 90% of the households in the Highveld had ac- weather cess to land for cultivation, followed by 87% in the Middleveld, 78% in the Lowveld and only 67% in the Lubombo Plateau. conditions.” Area Cultivated - October 2009 100% Rain-fall outlook for 90% 21% 16% 27% 25% Jan-Mar 2010 shows 80% a chance of above 70% 35% 31% 2 or more normal rainfall over 60% 36% 38% 1.0-2.0 ha western parts while 50% 0.5-1.0 ha there is an increased 40% 30% < 0.5 ha chance of below 30% 39% None 27% 26% normal to normal 20% 13% over the eastern 10% 6% 9% 5% 5% 10% parts of the country. 0% Highveld Middleveld Lowveld Lubombo Plateau 1st Quarter 2010 Page 3 Food Consumption • In October 2009, the Swazi VAC and WFP jointly conducted the Community and Household Surveillance (CHS) with com- plete country coverage. • The chart on the right shows the consump- tion by Agro-zone, indicating that households Poor Borderline Acceptable in the Lowveld have the worst consumption 100% in the country, followd by those in the Mid- 90% dleveld and then the Lubombo Plateau. More 80% than 80% of the households in the Highveld 70% 60% had acceptable food consumption. 68% 60% 75% • For the sample of households from the Octo- 83% 50% ber 2009 VAC/CHS, households with ‘poor’ consumption were eating on average, only 40% 30% maize every day, and then vegetables 3 days a 30% week and sugar only twice. Those with ac- 20% 25% 22% ceptable consumption eat maize and sugar 10% 17% 7% 10% daily, oil five times a week, vegetables 4 0% 3% times, beans twice and meat and chicken/eggs Highveld Middleveld Lowveld Lubombo Plateau only once a week. Markets and prices In January, 3,332 tonnes of maize were imported into Swaziland followed by 4,880 tonnes in February. “There are The wholesale price of maize is fixed at E 115/50 kgs. Importation of rice was at a much smaller scale, with 676 tonnes im- seven distinct Maize meal/ 1 kg Rice/ 1kg Vegetable Oil/ 750 ml ported in January and 1050 tonnes in Febru- livelihood 25 ary. The wholesale price of rice increased zones in 20 by about 1 percent, from E 4874.8 per Swaziland and 15 tonne to E 4,894.2 per tonne. four agro- 10 The chart on the left shows price trends for 5 ecological maize meal, rice and vegetable oil in urban 0 areas through Decem- zones.” Jn08 Jl08 Ag08 S08 O08 N08 D08 Ja09 F09 Mr09 Ap09 Ma09 Ju09 Jul09 Ag09 S09 O09 N09 D09 ber 2009. Livelihoods Ti mpi si ni Ntfonjeni Ma y i wa n e Mhlangatane • For rural households, the June 2009 VAC study identified 11 main livelihood groups with Piggs Peak e v Piggs Peak Ndzingeni Lomahasha r 23 percent of households relying mostly on salary/wages and 15 percent dependent on e s e R Lomahasha e r u t Madlangempisi Mh l u m e remittances. In terms of purchasing power, the worst off groups were those relying on a N a j t Nkhaba lo o Royal Swazi Sugar Corpor ation l food assistance (E 9 person/month) and transfers and begging and gifts (E 10 person/ a Maphalaleni M Simunye month). This compares to salary/wage households who reported more than E 100/ Hhohho Mk h i we n i Motjane MbabaneMd zi m b a Hl ane person per month. MBABANE Lugongolweni LudzeludzeKukhanyeni Lobamba Dvokodvweni Mhlambanyatsi Mafutseni Siteki • From October 2009 VAC/CHS survey, the most common livelihood groups were again, Manzini Bhunya LobambaKwaluseniMa n z i n i LomdzalaMatsapha salary/wages, pension and remittances. Purchasing power was highest in the salary/wages Lamgabhi Lubombo Mangcongco Mthongwaneni Mpolonjeni group (E 50 person/month), followed by skilled trade (E 45 person/month) while the NtondoziNhl ambeni SiphofaneniSiphofaneni Ti kh ub a Mankayane Ubombo median per capita income for gifts/begging households was zero. Ngwempi si Sugar LTD Manzini (Illovo) Mahlangatja Bigbend • Households relying on pension for their livelihoods had the highest share of monthly Sithobela Emhlathini Kubuta Sithobela Matata expenditure for food (65%), followed by remittance households (64%). The gifts/begging Nkwene Nkilongo Gege Gege Mt sam ba m a households had the lowest share of monthly expenditure for food (47%).
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