Iran: Special Inauguration Edition August 5, 2013
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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
Country Report Iran March 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
PROTESTS and REGIME SUPPRESSION in POST-REVOLUTIONARY IRAN Saeid Golkar
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY n OCTOBER 2020 n PN85 PROTESTS AND REGIME SUPPRESSION IN POST-REVOLUTIONARY IRAN Saeid Golkar Green Movement members tangle with Basij and police forces, 2009. he nationwide protests that engulfed Iran in late 2019 were ostensibly a response to a 50 percent gasoline price hike enacted by the administration of President Hassan Rouhani.1 But in little time, complaints Textended to a broader critique of the leadership. Moreover, beyond the specific reasons for the protests, they appeared to reveal a deeper reality about Iran, both before and since the 1979 emergence of the Islamic Republic: its character as an inherently “revolutionary country” and a “movement society.”2 Since its formation, the Islamic Republic has seen multiple cycles of protest and revolt, ranging from ethnic movements in the early 1980s to urban riots in the early 1990s, student unrest spanning 1999–2003, the Green Movement response to the 2009 election, and upheaval in December 2017–January 2018. The last of these instances, like the current round, began with a focus on economic dissatisfaction and then spread to broader issues. All these movements were put down by the regime with characteristic brutality. © 2020 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SAEID GOLKAR In tracking and comparing protest dynamics and market deregulation, currency devaluation, and the regime responses since 1979, this study reveals that cutting of subsidies. These policies, however, spurred unrest has become more significant in scale, as well massive inflation, greater inequality, and a spate of as more secularized and violent. -
Deterring Iran After the Nuclear Deal
MARCH 2017 COVER PHOTO NIEL HESTER | FLICKR 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com Deterring Iran After the Nuclear Deal PROJECT DIRECTORS AND EDITORS Kathleen H. Hicks Melissa G. Dalton CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Melissa G. Dalton Thomas Karako Jon B. Alterman J. Matthew McInnis Michael Connell Hijab Shah Michael Eisenstadt Michael Sulmeyer ISBN 978-1-4422-7993-3 Farideh Farhi Ian Williams Kathleen H. Hicks 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington,Ë|xHSLEOCy279933z DC 20036v*:+:!:+:! 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org Blank MARCH 2017 Deterring Iran after the Nuclear Deal PROJ ECT DIRECTORS AND EDITORS Kathleen H. Hicks Melissa G. Dalton CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Melissa G. Dalton Thomas Karako Jon B. Alterman J. Matthew McInnis Michael Connell Hijab Shah Michael Eisenstadt Michael Sulmeyer Farideh Farhi Ian Williams Kathleen H. Hicks Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 594-68742_ch00_6P.indd 1 3/13/17 7:13 AM About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. T oday, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. -
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions From
IDENTITY AND LEGITIMACY: IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS FROM NON- TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVES Pupak Mohebali Doctor of Philosophy University of York Politics June 2017 Abstract This thesis examines the impact of Iranian elites’ conceptions of national identity on decisions affecting Iran's nuclear programme and the P5+1 nuclear negotiations. “Why has the development of an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle been portrayed as a unifying symbol of national identity in Iran, especially since 2002 following the revelation of clandestine nuclear activities”? This is the key research question that explores the Iranian political elites’ perspectives on nuclear policy actions. My main empirical data is elite interviews. Another valuable source of empirical data is a discourse analysis of Iranian leaders’ statements on various aspects of the nuclear programme. The major focus of the thesis is how the discourses of Iranian national identity have been influential in nuclear decision-making among the national elites. In this thesis, I examine Iranian national identity components, including Persian nationalism, Shia Islamic identity, Islamic Revolutionary ideology, and modernity and technological advancement. Traditional rationalist IR approaches, such as realism fail to explain how effective national identity is in the context of foreign policy decision-making. I thus discuss the connection between national identity, prestige and bargaining leverage using a social constructivist approach. According to constructivism, states’ cultures and identities are not established realities, but the outcomes of historical and social processes. The Iranian nuclear programme has a symbolic nature that mingles with socially constructed values. There is the need to look at Iran’s nuclear intentions not necessarily through the lens of a nuclear weapons programme, but rather through the regime’s overall nuclear aspirations. -
Iran Report 5 Budget Final Review
A Budget for Challenging Times To what extent will the government’s 2019-20 Budget shield Iranians from economic turmoil? ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Predicting Iran’s revenues for the financial year 2019- 20 (which ends in March 2020) is nearly impossible as the full impact of US sanctions is not yet known. What is certain, however, is that the state will be met with a sizeable budget deficit, ranging from 20% to 45% depending on scenarios. • Iran’s 2019-20 (Persian Year 1398) budget aims to protect the population from the worst effects of the economic crisis, which will involve postponing long- term structural reforms and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The state’s fear of public protest has pushed it to become the world-leading subsidiser of fossil fuels, thus wasting $45bn per year. • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and religious foundations have seen their budgets increase in the context of the “Resistance Economy”, much to the discontent of Iranians. • Recent floods will cost as much as $2.5bn, a significant burden for the government to bear. Who are we? Castlereagh Associates is a research and analysis company, providing clients with key insights to support their decision-making and enable them to build more competitive and resilient businesses on national, regional and global levels. Copyright © 2019 Castlereagh Associates- All Rights Reserved. Credits: Copyright © Shutterstock IRANIAN PARLIAMENT A BUDGET FOR CHALLENGING TIMES: A Widening Budget Deficit: $76bn $61bn $50bn Planned Revenues Planned Revenues Planned Revenues $72bn $72bn $72bn Planned Spending Planned Spending Planned Spending Source: The draft budget 2019- Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad, Our Worst-Case Scenario 20, presented by Donya-e- March 2019, Page.194 Eqtesad Masood Nili 3 3 ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 Iranian parliamentarians always aim for a zero-deficit budget. -
Download Report
Iranian Internet Infrastructure and Policy Report April 2014 smallmedia.org.uk This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License INTRODUCTION // Despite the election of the moderate Hassan Rouhani to the presidency last year, Iran’s systematic filtering of online content and mobile phone apps continues at full-pace. In this month’s edition of the Iranian Internet Infrastructure and Policy Report, Small Media takes a closer look at one of the bodies most deeply-enmeshed with the process of overseeing and directing filtering policies - the ‘Commission to Determine the Instances of Criminal Content’ (or CDICC). This month’s report also tracks all the usual news about Iran’s filtering system, national Internet policy, and infrastructure development projects. As well as tracking high-profile splits in the estab- lishment over the filtering of the chat app WhatsApp, this month’s report also finds evidence that the government has begun to deploy the National Information Network (SHOMA), or ‘National Internet’, with millions of Iranians using it to access the government’s new online platform for managing social welfare and support. 2 THE COMMISSION TO DETERMINE THE INSTANCES OF CRIMINAL CONTENT (CDICC) THE COMMISSION TO DETERMINE THE INSTANCES OF CRIMINAL CONTENT (CDICC) overview The Commission to Determine the Instances of Criminal Content (CDICC) is the body tasked with monitoring cyberspace, and filtering criminal Internet content. It was established as a consequence of Iran’s Cyber Crime Law (CCL), which was passed by Iran’s Parliament in May 2009. According to Article 22 of the CCL, Iran’s Judiciary System was given the mandate of establishing CDICC under the authority of Iran’s Prosecutor’s Office. -
Iran National Day Working for Peace and Stability
THE JAPAN TIMES WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2016 5 Iran National Day Working for peace and stability Reza Nazar Ahari play an active and positive role diplomacy, indicates that with ABSM AS ADOR OF IRAN for regional and international the necessary will, many of the peace and security. outstanding international On behalf of conflicts can be resolved with- the Islamic Settling nuclear issue out resorting to force and vio- Republic of I am delighted to see that the lence. I am convinced that the Iran’s govern- negative propaganda regard- JCPOA implementation is a ment and ing the peaceful nuclear pro- suitable opportunity for the people, I gram of my country turned out world community to expand would like to be false and the Islamic Re- their cooperation with the Is- to extend public of Iran and the P5+1 lamic Republic of Iran. through the group (China, France, the As the Iran nuclear deal esteemed U .K., the U.S., Russia and Ger- reaches implementation stage columns of many) reached a historic nu- and sanctions are lifted, we The Japan Times our warmest clear deal in July. The hope the world can now make greetings and best wishes to agreement, known as the Joint use of Iran’s vast economic op- Their Majesties Emperor Aki- Comprehensive Plan of Action portunities. It’s also a time for hito and Empress Michiko, the (JCPOA), is a breakthrough for the countries of the region and Imperial family, as well as the the continuation of our peace- the international community government and friendly peo- ful nuclear program and inter- to come together to tackle the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani, ple of Japan on this auspicious national security. -
Has Rouhani Started Preparing for the اﺳم اﻟﻣوﺿوع : Presidential Elections
Has Rouhani Started Preparing for the : ωϭοϭϣϟϡγ Presidential Elections? Has Rouhani Started Preparing for the : ωϭοϭϣϟϥϭϧϋ Presidential Elections? 20/11/2016 : έηϧϟΦϳέΎΗ ΔϣΩϘΗϣϟΕΎγέΩϟϭΙΎΣΑϸϟϝΑϘΗγϣϟίϛέϣ : ΏΗΎϛϟϡγ : ωϭοϭϣϟ Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is exerting unremitting efforts in order to boost his power to win the presidential elections set to take place on May 17th, 2017.He aims to renew his presidential mandate for another four years. In this context, Rouhani seeks to increase his popularity once again among the youth and middle class, which were the main demographics voting in the presidential elections of June 2013. These voting blocs enabled him to beat four conservative fundamentalist candidates in the first round of elections. However, this class heatedly criticized him after failing to keep most of his promises from the electoral campaign in 2013.However, these efforts are still in their early stages and may face gradually increasing challenges with the presidential elections drawing near, especially after the map of potential presidential candidates revealed that the capability of the conservative fundamentalists to unite their lines behind one candidate to compete with Rouhani became clear.Undoubtedly, the Republican candidate Donald Trump¶s win in the U.S. presidential elections may present another variable which will have a role in determining Rouhani¶s opportunities in renewing his mandate of presidency. In light of Trump¶s interest in the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 and Iran¶s support for terrorism, its presence in Syria, and its stance on the war against the Islamic State (ISIS), the US¶s relationship with Iran¶s president may shift.Several Justifications:It has become evident that President Rouhani is attempting to alter his political tone towards his main supporters. -
A Framing Analysis of News Coverage of Iran's Nuclear Deal with The
A Framing Analysis of News Coverage of Iran’s Nuclear Deal with the United Nations Security Council’s Five Permanent Members (the P5+1) in the Islamic Republic News Agency and The New York Times A Thesis in The Department of Journalism Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts (Journalism) at Concordia University Montreal, Quebec, Canada April 2019 CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY School of Graduate Studies This is to certify that the thesis prepared By: Aria Alavi Entitled: A Framing Analysis of News Coverage in Iran’s Nuclear Deal with the United Nations Security Council’s Five Permanent Members (the P5+1) in the Islamic Republic News Agency and The New York Times and submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (Journalism Studies) complies with the regulations of the University and meets the accepted standards with respect to originality and quality. Signed by the final examining committee: Dr. David Secko Chair Aphrodite Salas Examiner Dr. Greg Nielsen Examiner Dr. Andrea Hunter Thesis Supervisor Approved by Chair of Department or Graduate Program Director Dr. Andre Roy Date iii ABSTRACT A Framing Analysis of News Coverage in Iran’s Nuclear Deal with the United Nations Security Council’s Five Permanent Members (the P5+1) in the Islamic Republic News Agency and The New York Times Aria Alavi Over the last several years, the issue of Iran’s development of nuclear power has caused significant stress among Western democracies. Israel, in particular, has perceived this as an imminent threat to its existence. -
USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #867
USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Maxwell AFB, Alabama Issue No. 867, 14 December 2010 Articles & Other Documents: WH: Obama Won't Leave DC until Nuke Deal is Done S. Korea, U.S. Launch Joint Committee to Deter N. Korea's Nuclear Threats START Pact Has Enough Votes, U.S. Aide Says N Korea's Nuclear Capacity Worries Russia Clock Ticking, Obama Urges Senate OK of Arms Treaty S.Korea Suspects Secret Uranium Enrichment in North Senate Working on Ratification of U.S.-Russian Strategic Arms Treaty - White House US Suspects Secret Burma Nuclear Sites Manouchehr Mottaki Fired from Iran Foreign Minister Burma Not Nuclear, Says Abhisit Job Test of Agni-II's Advanced Version Fails Intelligence Chiefs Fear Nuclear War between Israel and Tehran Russian Military to Receive 1,300 Types of Weaponry by 2020 Rudd Calls for Inspections of Israel's Nuclear Facility Russia, NATO May Make Soon Progress in Joint Iran Foreign Policy 'Unchanged' by Mottaki Sacking Missile Defense Progress North Korea Stresses Commitment to Nuclear Weapons Bolivia Rejects Alvaro Uribe’s Accusations about Nuclear Program N. Korean FM Defends Pyongyang's Decision to Bolster Nuclear Arsenal U.S. to Spend $1B Over Five Years on Conventional Strike Systems Japan Plans more Patriot Systems to Shoot Down N. Korean Missiles Talks with Iran Just a Start Iran's Nuclear Plans Give West a Tough Choice Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information.