Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding
Urban Climate 33 (2020) 100654 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Urban Climate journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/uclim Enhancing New York City's resilience to sea level rise and increased coastal flooding T ⁎ Vivien Gornitza, , Michael Oppenheimerb, Robert Koppc, Radley Hortona, Philip Ortond, Cynthia Rosenzweiga, William Soleckie, Lesley Patrickf a Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA b Princeton University, Princeton 08544, NJ, USA c Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA d Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken 07030, NJ, USA e Hunter College, New York City, USA f City University of New York (CUNY), New York City, USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet ice mass losses and potential West Antarctic Ice Sea level rise Sheet instability may lead to higher than previously anticipated future sea levels. The New York Coastal flooding City Panel on Climate Change Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) upper-end, low probability sea Flood adaptation level rise (SLR) scenario, which incorporates recent ice loss trends, improved ice sheet-ocean- Resiliency planning atmosphere modeling, and potential ice sheet destabilization, projects SLR of up to 2.1 m by the New York City 2080s and up to 2.9 m by 2100, at high greenhouse gas emissions (NPCC, 2019). These results exceed previous high-end SLR projections (90th percentile) of 1.5 m by the 2080s and 1.9 m by 2100, relative to 2000–2004 (NPCC, 2015). By 2100, the 1% annual chance (100-year) floodplain could cover 1/3 of the city's total area under ARIM; around 1/5 of the area could be flooded during monthly high tides.
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