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The Automatic Freight s Fall 2002 Pictures of the Future THE MAGAZINE FOR RESEARCH AND INNOVATION INDUSTRY Digital Factories INTERNET Networks of the Future ROBOTS Machines with Emotions PICTURES OF THE FUTURE O Guest Editorial PICTURES OF THE FUTURE O Contents Cycles of innovation in information technology have become so short that the classic distinction between research and development is no longer valid. Today, the old model — in which basic research ultimately led to industrial implementa- tion via a large number of development stages in various organizations — is con- sidered far too time-consuming. This outmoded production-line principle needs to be replaced with dynamic innovation networks that integrate publicly financed basic research, application development and product transfer in so-called Centers of Excellence. It’s also a fact that specialized cen- INDUSTRY O Digital Factories Streamlining Research ters work faster and are therefore Scenario 2010: The Magic of Virtuality 6 more successful in the competitive Digital Production: Factory in a Computer 9 in Dynamic world of research. One good exam- Interview with Dr. Emmerich Schiller, DaimlerChrysler 13 ple of this is the German Research Miniaturization: Lilliputian Factories 16 Innovation Networks Center for Artificial Intelligence Communications: Transforming Production with Tiny Transponders 19 (DFKI), which is responsible for the Augmented Reality: Hello, I’m Pump 235 23 entire innovation spectrum in this area. Since its foundation in 1988, it has been Facts and Forecasts 25 Interview with Prof. Engelbert Westkämper, Fraunhofer Institute 27 working closely with Corporate Technology at Siemens AG. To speed up the pace of innovation, DFKI runs simultaneous projects in the areas of basic research, ap- plied R&D and product transfer — all under one roof. The projects are carried out INTERNET O Networks of the Future by the same scientists working together in different teams. This approach is espe- Scenario 2015: Being There 32 cially effective when it comes to developing, for example, the next Internet gener- Network Convergence: Building the Unlimited Expressway 35 ation (see the article on the Thinking Web on page 41). Semantics: The Thinking Web 41 Ubiquitous Computing: Inside the All-Inclusive Network 44 The DFKI Supervisory Board is dominated by stockholders from industry. In addi- Facts and Forecasts 47 tion to ensuring DFKI’s adherence to lean management structures and cost-effi- Interview with Prof. Raj Reddy, Carnegie Mellon University 49 cient research, Board Members also work with the company’s scientists to draw up Society: Crossing the Digital Divides 51 Professor Wolfgang roadmaps for future research. Here, a key criterion is the projected benefit to in- Wahlster is the director dustry. Modern research centers such as the DFKI are organized as public-private ROBOTS O Machines with Emotions of the German Research partnerships and are closely linked with industrial research. Their work is strictly Center for Artificial Intelli- Scenario 2020: Servants that Never Sleep 56 project-oriented, employee contracts are of limited duration, and management gence in Saarbrücken Cooperative Navigation Systems: Mr. Clean Reports for Service 59 boards include representatives of both industry and the science community. Pro- and Kaiserslautern. Interview with Prof. Gerd Hirzinger, German Aerospace Center 62 ject work often produces industrial spin-offs. Furthermore, DFKI scientists are not Facts and Forecasts 64 expected to work solely as researchers until they retire; instead, research activity is Artificial Intelligence: Can We Build Intelligent Machines? 66 regarded as simply the career phase that immediately follows a successful acade- Emotional Intelligence: Say It with Feeling 69 mic education. Young scientists are expected to do research in Centers of Excel- Opinion: We Are Becoming Cyborgs 71 lence for a limited period of time in a business-friendly and project-oriented set- Society: In Our Own Image 73 ting, and to follow this phase either by putting into practice modern concepts of education in universities or by implementing technology transfer in the world of O FEATURES business. Home Automation: The Electronic Home 4 Public-private partnerships, project-oriented research, the establishment of Cen- Research Partnerships: Protecting Brands with Biomolecules 30 ters of Excellence, and bringing together the best thinkers from the worlds of sci- CargoMover: The Automatic Freight Car 54 Venturing: Getting Started with a Powerful Partner 76 ence and business so that they can plan research roadmaps, scientific megatrends Start-up Companies: Minuscule Motors 78 and strategic focuses in research — these are the key components of the dynamic Researchers and Patents 80 innovation networks that will help participating companies to maintain and im- Feedback / Preview 82 prove their leading positions in key areas of information technology. Cover: Mexi — a robot with feelings (top right) and miniaturized pressure and temperature sensor compared to an ant (bottom left) 2 Pictures of the Future | Fall 2002 Pictures of the Future | Fall 2002 3 FEATURES O Home Automation Automation and communication systems will shape tomorrow’s home. Here are some of the most important innovation areas. Internet connection waves and romantic lighting. There’s just freezer and dry cleaning, each of which can ing tables will gradually follow — perhaps enough time to survey the scene with satis- be accessed only by the appropriate delivery later in Europe than in Japan, where accep- Networked household faction when the doorbell rings. service. “This is not only going to be a big tance is greater. In Japan, enthusiasm for ro- appliances The various elements of this scenario help for people who are on the road a lot, it’s bots stops short only at child care.“ aren’t as futuristic as they might sound. In also an interesting combination of devices, The fact that technological limitations fact, they belong to the concepts currently services and logistics that encompass such aren’t the main barrier to the introduction of being considered by researchers involved in functions as order processing and access au- new solutions is demonstrated by many busi- “Home of the Future” analysis. Similar scenar- thorization,” says Damrath. Such delivery ness ideas developed in Siemens’ “Pictures of ios have been developed in the “Pictures of boxes have already been installed at some the Future” scenarios for the foods & bever- Floor cleaning the Future” studies performed in recent initial trial sites — for example, in the “Fu- ages, cleaning & maintenance and health & months by BSH Bosch und Siemens Haus- turelife“ house located in Switzerland, which wellness process chains. What’s more, it’s en- Vacuufloor geräte (household appliances) GmbH with was equipped by Siemens, among others. tirely possible to build a refrigerator or robots the support of Siemens Corporate Technol- Another trend that highlights the huge freezer that automatically inventories its con- ogy (for more information, see Pictures of gap between the household of tomorrow tents and issues replacement orders via the Home Biometric Communications delivery recognition the Future, Fall 2001 and Spring 2002). “Our and that of yesterday is the willingness to ac- Internet. Such devices are enthusiastically re- and remote box study focuses on the 2007 to 2012 period, cess outside information. “Since grand- ported on in the media. Here, problems re- diagnostics initially for the European and North American mother’s heyday, there has been a marked late more to logistics. The food industry regions,” says Dr. Joachim Damrath, head of decline in homemaking skills,” Damrath ex- would have to tag its products appropriately, Corporate Technology for Innovative Prod- plains. “Today’s homemaker would just as for instance with polymer tags (see article on Intelligent waste ucts at BSH. soon call on expert knowledge when a prob- page 19). But, as Damrath points out, “That center lem requires it.” This is an opportunity for still doesn’t solve the question of what you Future Trends. To explore new business op- providing Internet services, which might would do with homemade foods such as Mobile household portunities and the technologies these will range from exotic recipes to instructions for jams or with partially empty containers.” appliances require, experts began by identifying more cleaning Persian rugs. Damrath can even than 140 future trends that are significant for imagine cleaning robots that report spots on Synergies with Siemens. In all these devel- innovations in the household. These range the carpet to their master or mistress — and opments, BSH enjoys an important advan- from the growing numbers of single house- then communicate spot removal instructions tage through its close ties with Bosch and The Electronic holds, working women and teleworkers, to via the Internet. Siemens. The companies work together in ar- Home an aging population and the increasing value people place on individuality, mobility, con- Many Global Brands from a Single Source October 2012. By the time Mark Conrad re- Innovations such as cleaning robots, voice venience, safety and wellness. Of course, turns to his home, everything is just about they also include the technological trends to- Since its establishment as a joint venture in 1967, Bosch und Siemens Haus- ready for this evening’s romantic dinner. Out control, and household appliances with ward increasing automation and networking. geräte
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