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View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by VBN Aalborg Universitet A Danish Heat Atlas for Supply Strategies and Demand Side Management Möller, Bernd Publication date: 2012 Document Version Early version, also known as pre-print Link to publication from Aalborg University Citation for published version (APA): Möller, B. (2012). A Danish Heat Atlas for Supply Strategies and Demand Side Management. Paper presented at The 13th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling, København, Denmark. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. ? Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. ? You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain ? You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us at [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from vbn.aau.dk on: December 25, 2020 DHC13, the 13th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling September 3rd to September 4th, 2012, Copenhagen, Denmark A DANISH HEAT ATLAS FOR SUPPLY STRATEGIES AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT Bernd Möller1 1 Department of Development & Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark Keywords: Heat demand and supply, GIS, Mapping, Strategic Energy Planning. able to invest?’. A possible solution for this is a geo- ABSTRACT graphical information system (GIS), which incorporates The expansion of district heating, the assessment of a spatial database, a set of methods for spatial analy- the impact of heat supply strategies, as well as the sis, as well as the capability of supplementing energy analysis of significant heat demand savings require system data with e.g. socio-economic or planning data. sound decision support at high detail. Data is needed As the primary focus is on heat demand and supply, to continuously quantify potentials and costs of this system is here called a Heat Atlas (1). measures in the end-use and supply sectors. To im- Origins of heat atlases prove scientific and practical knowledge regarding heat The concept of heat atlases is not new. The oil crisis of planning and the economics of future district heating, a 1972-1973 and the UN Conference on the Human heat atlas for Denmark has been developed at Aalborg Environment (the Stockholm Conference) have trig- University. The heat atlas employs a building-sharp gered the interest in acting on the waste of energy database of physical building characteristics, which is resources, issues of pollution, scarcity and socio- used to calculate heat demand and possible savings. economic risk of the energy system, which at this point The location of each building relative to heat supply was highly reliant on oil, increasingly polluting and technologies is mapped and used for the assessment progressively less efficient. Denmark, heavily depend- of supply strategies by potentials, costs and environ- ent of oil, was left in a state of crisis and vulnerability: mental impact. Both elements can furthermore be used high costs of energy affected households and compa- to balance investments in supply with investments in nies, and a negative currency balance had an impact energy savings on a local and national scale. The pre- on socio-economy (2). sent paper shows examples from recent studies carried out for municipalities embarking on a strategic energy The country subsequently managed to ridden itself planning process. The access to and the usefulness of partly of their dependency of imported oil. The ministry a heat atlas methodology is being discussed and impli- of trade published an energy plan in 1976, aiming at cations for planning and the perspectives for future nuclear power and the conversion of oil-fired power development are presented. stations to coal. The heating sector was addressed by the expansion of district heating, which in the larger INTRODUCTION cities was to be based on the co-generation of heat and Supply strategies as well as demand side management power. In the years after this first energy plan, regions in district heating are closely related to the spatial na- and towns began to look into heat planning. With the ture of district heating and heat demand. Heat Supply Act of 1979 a legal basis was laid for mu- nicipalities and counties to develop heat plans (3), The spatial nature of renewable energy systems which prescribe the heat supply in a given area. Heat Whenever a change is to be implemented in the collec- plans were to be formulated for given built-up areas, tive heat supply, such as the expansion of existing parts of towns or the like, with homogenous building district heating (DH), the implementation of significant mass and with similar supply opportunities, the so- heat savings at demand side, or the formulation of called energy districts. For each energy district, there policies and strategies that inflict major changes to heat was made an account for the buildings located within, supply, these measures require a sound data founda- their means of heating, as well as their estimated heat tion for making decisions. demand. A predominant heat supply was defined, and The spatial nature of renewable energy systems and for newly developed areas a collective heat supply the need to fundamentally change them with massive (district heating, later also natural gas) was prescribed. investments, new policies and change of behaviour District heating systems had their fuel and technology requires a geographical system for data storage, re- arranged by means of these heat plans. Hence, the trieval and analysis of location-based information, Heat Supply Act was a rigorous and effective means to which allows for getting answers for questions like create many local monopolies for heat supply, to be ‘where are buildings with district heating?’, ‘what is the utilised by publicly or cooperatively owned district heat- heat demand within this area?’ or ‘how far is this area ing companies. Because of its geographical nature, the located from a nearby energy plant?’ or ‘who will be heat plans required a spatial basis of information and DHC13, the 13th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling September 3rd to September 4th, 2012, Copenhagen, Denmark decision-making, the heat atlas. The early heat atlases Heat atlases must furthermore allow for decisions on were based on paper maps and punch-card registers, “how far to go”, reflecting the significant difference and converted into computerised planning tools with between theoretical, technical, economic and socially the advent of GIS in the 80s. The spatial entities were or environmentally acceptable potentials of a technolo- legally binding planning documents, prepared by the gy. Each fraction of the potential comes at a specific municipalities and collected by the Danish Energy cost. The heat atlas must be able to represent the mar- Agency. Each year the heat plans were to be revised ginally increasing costs of utilising a technology in a (4). By means of heat planning, based on spatial data continuous way, using the marginal costs as a decision and spatial zoning, district heating grew to be the most parameter. The marginal costs of a resource, however, popular means of heating, which now covers 50% of are not the same for the whole country: potential re- the Danish heat demand. At the same time, the heat sources are geographically distributed by density and demand of the Danish building stock has remained availability and therefore different specific costs of utili- constant. The importance of oil in covering the heat sation. We consequently need a spatially continuous demand shrank from more than 90% in 1972 to merely model, which maps fractions of the total resource base 10% in 2010. This had not been possible without the by costs, technical constraints, environmental impact or combination of decentralised spatial planning of heat social consequences. supply using heat atlases; the introduction of stricter Heat atlases finally must provide a better basis for building codes; as well as the general energy aware- making energy systems analysis with computer mod- ness triggered by the oil crises. els. This means that the heat atlas must be able to Since 1990 municipalities are not obliged to prepare deliver consistent data on the potentials of a resource, specific heat plans, but may develop heat supply by its costs and impact. An example is the assessment of means of a project-based negotiation between admin- the conversion potentials of individual natural gas heat- istration and utility. The liberalisation efforts in the en- ing to district heat (7). To provide a reasonable figure, ergy sector further reduced interest in heat planning, the less economically attractive portions of the total and currently municipalities are left without the means potential (all buildings with natural gas heating) must to strategically plan local energy systems (5). be excluded, e.g. by defining cut-off distances or max- An increased awareness of the limitations of fossil fuels imal connection costs. as well as recent research projects such as Heat Plan Elements of a heat atlas Denmark (6) have moved the subject of municipal heat Heat atlases are potentially data intensive. They ulti- supply planning to the top of the agenda, and initiatives mately require the single building as the smallest com- to combine local climate strategies with local heat sup- putational and mappable unit {{68 Ravetz,Joe 2008}}. ply have led to the development of strategic energy Fortunately, in Denmark there is a national system of planning in many Danish municipalities.

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