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Achieving Low Carbon and Sustainable Transport Systems in Yorkshire and Humber

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Achieving Low Carbon and Sustainable Transport Systems in Yorkshire and Humber Achieving low carbon and sustainable transport systems in Yorkshire and Humber Achieving low carbon and sustainable transport systems in Yorkshire and Humber JMP Consultants Limited Minerva House East Parade Leeds LS1 5PS T 0113 244 4347 F 0113 242 3753 E [email protected] www.jmp.co.uk Job No. D086024 Report No. Prepared by Amy Denton, Emma Anforth, Martin Revill, Gary Haq, Howard Cambridge, John Barrett Verified Martin Revill, John Whitelegg Approved by Martin Revill Status Final Issue No. 2 Date 18 March 2008 Achieving low carbon and sustainable transport systems in Yorkshire and Humber Contents Amendments Record This document has been issued and amended as follows: Status/Revision Revision description Issue Number Approved By Date Draft Final 1 Martin Revill 01/02/2008 Final 2 Martin Revill 18/03/2008 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................1 2 CLIMATE CHANGE....................................................................................................................2 Global context.............................................................................................................................2 Climate change in Yorkshire and the Humber............................................................................3 Evaluating the contribution that key regional strategies make towards addressing climate change........................................................................................................................................4 The importance of tackling transport in addressing climate change ..........................................6 3 CARBON EMISSION MODELLING ...........................................................................................8 Approach to the modelling..........................................................................................................8 The key variables .......................................................................................................................8 Interventions modelled ...............................................................................................................9 4 PRACTICAL TRANSPORT MEASURES.................................................................................10 Introduction...............................................................................................................................10 Bus Rapid Transit .....................................................................................................................10 Smartcard .................................................................................................................................11 Light Rail...................................................................................................................................11 Rail Improvements....................................................................................................................11 Workplace Travel Plans............................................................................................................12 Home Working and Teleworking ..............................................................................................12 Travel Awareness and Education.............................................................................................13 Personalised Journey Planning................................................................................................13 School Travel Plans..................................................................................................................13 Grocery Home Shopping..........................................................................................................13 Car Clubs..................................................................................................................................14 Car Share .................................................................................................................................14 HOV Lane.................................................................................................................................14 Mileage-based Road User Charging ........................................................................................15 Congestion Charging................................................................................................................15 Car Free Zones ........................................................................................................................15 Land Use Planning in New Household Schemes.....................................................................15 5 PACKAGES OF TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS ..................................................................17 Combining interventions...........................................................................................................17 Business as usual scenario......................................................................................................17 The future scenarios.................................................................................................................18 6 MODELLED OUTPUTS............................................................................................................20 Business as usual scenario......................................................................................................20 Step Change scenario..............................................................................................................21 Accelerated scenario................................................................................................................23 Comparison of scenarios..........................................................................................................24 Impact of specific interventions ................................................................................................25 Geographical differences..........................................................................................................26 Aviation.....................................................................................................................................28 Wider impacts...........................................................................................................................30 Acceptability of interventions modelled ....................................................................................31 7 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS ....................................................................................35 Headlines..................................................................................................................................35 The modelling and its results....................................................................................................36 Tables and Figures Figure 2.1 Indicators of climate change ............................................................................................ 2 Figure 2.2 Contribution of transport to Yorkshire and Humber carbon emissions............................ 6 Figure 2.3 Contribution of transport to Yorkshire and Humber carbon emissions............................ 7 Figure 3.1 The modelling process..................................................................................................... 8 Figure 6.1 Modelled CO2 emissions from land transport within the Business as Usual scenario .. 20 Figure 6.2 Modelled CO2 emissions from all transport use including aviation within the Business as Usual scenario.................................................................................................................................. 21 Figure 6.3 Modelled CO2 emissions from land transport within the Step Change scenario ........... 22 Figure 6.4 Modelled CO2 emissions from all transport use including aviation within the Step Change scenario .............................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 6.5 Modelled CO2 emissions from land transport within the Accelerated scenario ............. 23 Figure 6.6 Modelled CO2 emissions from all transport use including aviation within the Accelerated scenario............................................................................................................................................ 24 Figure 6.7 Comparison of modelled CO2 emissions from all scenarios with respect to the Stabilising Carbon Trends (SCT) scenario....................................................................................... 25 Figure 6.8 Comparison of modelled CO2 emissions by intervention............................................... 25 Figure 6.9 Total emissions by district in the Accelerated scenario at 2016.................................... 26 Figure 6.10 Emissions per capita by district in the Accelerated scenario at 2016.......................... 27 Figure 6.11 Change in emissions by district in 2016 under the Accelerated scenario ................... 28 Figure 6.12 Aviation emissions per capita (all scenarios)............................................................... 29 Figure 6.13 Total modelled aviation emissions in Yorkshire and Humber...................................... 29 Figure 6.14 Modelled contribution of aviation emissions in Yorkshire and Humber ....................... 30 Figure 6.15 Summary graph of average score for acceptability
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