Otley TC Rail Study Final Report March 2004
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Otley Rail Link Study Final Report in association with Otley Rail Link Study Final Report in association with Job number Prepared by Verified by Approved by Status Issue number Date D048006 SW / JCS FINAL 1 05/03/2004 JMP Consultants Ltd Otley Rail Link Study – Final Report Otley Rail Link Study Final Report Contents 0 Executive summary.......................................................................................0 1 Introduction....................................................................................................2 2 Study approach.............................................................................................4 3 Infrastructure elements .................................................................................6 Permanent way and earthworks............................................................................ 6 Structures ................................................................................................................. 9 Station design........................................................................................................ 10 Electrification......................................................................................................... 12 Signalling ............................................................................................................... 12 Infrastructure costs................................................................................................ 12 Summary................................................................................................................ 15 Pathing and scheduling issues............................................................................. 16 4 The screening framework ...........................................................................19 Rail options ............................................................................................................ 19 Screening criteria.................................................................................................. 21 Assessment of all public transport options.......................................................... 25 5 Forecasts of passenger demand ...............................................................27 The trip rate model................................................................................................ 27 Impact of lower level of service .......................................................................... 28 Alternative station locations................................................................................. 31 6 Appraisal of costs and benefits..................................................................32 Benefits................................................................................................................... 33 Costs....................................................................................................................... 33 Appraisal results.................................................................................................... 35 7 Conclusion ...................................................................................................38 Viability of a rail link.............................................................................................. 38 Risks and uncertainties in the project ................................................................. 39 Political feasibility ................................................................................................. 39 The next steps........................................................................................................ 40 X:\Series 048\D048006 Otley Rail Link\Documents\Finrep.doc 05/03/04 JMP Consultants Ltd Otley Rail Link Study – Final Report 0 Executive summary 0.1 JMP Consultants was commissioned by Otley Town Council in October 2003 to investigate a range of options for rail reinstatement to Otley. In recent years the nearby Wharfedale Line has seen significant recent growth in patronage, and as the Leeds economy continues to expand, further growth is expected. The Council is concerned that rail isolation and traffic congestion will deny Otley the benefits of this economic growth, despite the popularity of the W9 bus service to Menston. 0.2 This is a pre-feasibility study, outlining the issues to be considered in rail reinstatement. It has included an assessment of engineering feasibility, conducted by White Young Green; a screening of all the possible rail options to identify the most favourable option for detailed consideration; forecasting of likely passenger demand and revenue for an Otley service; and an appraisal of detailed costs and benefits over a thirty year operational period 0.3 The engineering feasibility study found a number of potential difficulties in the simple reinstatement of the permanent way. Between Menston and Otley some overbridges have been removed and their reinstatement is required to current highway regulations. This means that the track bed will have to be raised significantly over the A6038. 0.4 The A660 Otley Bypass also causes a number of difficulties. The feasibility concluded that it was possible to accommodate the railway alongside the bypass, provided that modifications were made to the overbridges and to part of the existing highway. A suitable site for a station was found, close to its original location, on the southern side of the bypass. 0.5 Between Otley and Arthington Junction greater problems were encountered. Firstly, a new tunnel or bridge would be required to overcome the A660 and Leeds Road roundabout at the eastern end of the bypass. More seriously, part of the track bed at Pool has been covered by 20 houses. There is no other realistic alignment for the railway, and acquiring the former track bed would be a costly and lengthy process. This indicates that the Menston to Otley option is much more feasible. 0.6 A further significant consideration is the availability of a path on the Wharfedale Line. The current service is operating close to capacity, and if the projected growth is achieved it is likely that one train per hour to/from Otley could be accommodated. A service of two trains per hour would require significant infrastructure modifications at locations on the Airedale and Wharfedale lines. 0.7 Consideration was also given to a possible extension to new gravel extraction pits to the east of Otley. An infrastructure cost of £13 million was estimated, in addition to the Menston to Otley link, implying that very significant levels of extraction would be needed to justify the expenditure. This seems unlikely given its proximity to Otley. 0.8 A wide range of public transport options were assessed, including diesel or electric operation, bus, car, and LRT use. It was concluded that the most sustainable option was an electric service from Otley through Menston to Leeds. The likely patronage of such a service was considered in detail. X:\Series 048\D048006 Otley Rail Link\Documents\Finrep.doc 0 05/03/04 JMP Consultants Ltd Otley Rail Link Study – Final Report 0.9 An analysis was made of possible station locations in Otley. When infrastructure constraints were combined with forecasts of likely patronage the optimum location was found to be close to its original site, albeit to the south of Otley bypass. 0.10 Potential car park sites for Otley station were identified on both sides of the bypass. The northern option is closer to the town centre, but would need the old access road to Burras Lane to be reopened. The southern option is further away from the town, but is closer to the station. It would however require the acquisition of some allotments. With either option easy public transport and disabled access could be developed from Birdcage Walk. 0.11 A standard trip rate model was used, utilising data from the 2001 Census to compare stations on the Wharfedale Line with Otley. Daily boardings were calculated, and were factored to service levels of one train and two trains per hour. Adjustments were made for Menston users that would switch to Otley, but also for the additional passengers picked up from Menston and Guiseley. 0.12 In the appraisal of costs and benefits for the 30 year period from 2011 it was assumed that passenger numbers on the Wharfedale Line will continue to grow. The operating will grow in real terms. However, traffic levels will also grow, leading the rail service to accrue significant non-user benefits from reduced road congestion. All figures have had the standard discount figure of 3.5% applied to each year and are based to 2003. 0.13 The capital costs of the Menston to Otley option are estimated to be £20.5 million, though after the application of the above factors the present value of the capital cost is £14.7 million. Together with discounted operating costs of £22.6 million over 30 years, the present value of the total costs is £37.4 million. 0.14 With a service of one train per hour the revenue from train fares over 30 years will be £11.7 million; non-user benefits will be £13.3 million; and user benefits from reduced journey times will be £18.5 million. This gives a present value of benefits of £43.6 million. 0.15 The financial Net Present Value is -£25.7 million and the economic NPV is £6.2 million. This gives a cost/benefit ratio of 1.17. This means that the scheme generates economic benefits in excess of its costs. 0.16 Sensitivity testing was conducted to see how robust the analysis is. These looked at large changes in demand and capital costs.