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An Open Letter to Bill Gates Page 1 turnbull, An open letter to Bill Gates page 1 An Open Letter to Bill Gates and everyone else with lots of money and a social conscience turnbull, An open letter to Bill Gates page 2 CONTENTS WHAT’S THIS ABOUT? ......................................................................3 FINDING MORE WATER.................................................................... 8 FARMS AND FARMING ......................................................................13 DISASTER IN THE MAKING............................................................. 16 BIG FARMS ARE A BIG HAZARD ....................................................18 A DEARTH OF EARTH........................................................................ 20 TERRA PRETA ......................................................................................20 DRIP IRRIGATION AND TERRACES.............................................. 21 THE GLOBAL MARKET ....................................................................22 FOOD FOR THE FUTURE ..................................................................25 OUR OPTIONS .....................................................................................27 MEAT ANIMALS ..................................................................................29 WASTE NOT WASTE, WANT NOT.................................................... 34 PROFIT-OPTIONAL BUSINESS........................................................ 36 RESCUE SCOOTERS ..........................................................................37 FIGHTING FIRE ...................................................................................37 AMPHIBIOUS FIRE TRUCKS ...........................................................39 OIL SPILLS ...........................................................................................40 WATER BAG LEVEES ........................................................................40 A DOUBLE EXPANSION ENGINE ....................................................41 AN ELECTRIC SPACE SHIP ..............................................................42 WRAPPING IT UP ................................................................................43 turnbull, An open letter to Bill Gates page 3 have credentials to prove that they learned The solution in this case is to fill A and then, WHAT’S THIS ABOUT? their trade from professors who learned from from A, fill B once and C twice. 127 fluid professors who learned from professors who ounces minus 21 fluid ounces minus 3 fluid Dear Bill: learned from professors ad infinitum. They are ounces minus 3 fluid ounces equals 100 fluid as well educated as the Vatican’s scholars who ounces. This is a sneaky way to try to get in touch with knew, in 1633, that Galileo had to be wrong you, but it's the only one I can think of. I'm because he did not preach the wisdom of One group was given five ‘practice’ problems sure you get more mail and emails than you Aristotle -- which had guided much of the followed by four 'test' problems, and a second can possibly look at, and there's no reason you western world for nearly 2,000 years and was group was given only the four test problems. should look at one of mine. I might try to accepted as gospel by the church. All five practice problems and some of the test contact your foundation but the website says it problems had the same solution -- A minus B will accept ideas and suggestions only from We could think of this as an extension of the minus 2C -- but at least one of the test established charities -- presumably because phenomenon that psychologists call the problems could be solved with a simpler they have paid staff to make proposals and Einstellung effect1 -- the common practice of procedure. need your money to live on. I don't plan to live trying to solve a problem in a way that has on your money but I think I see some been learned, even when a simpler solution is If the subjects were required to measure out 18 problems coming that would be better averted obvious -- as demonstrated by psychologist fluid ounces of water with jars that would hold than dealt with. Abraham Luchins in 1942 with his famous 15, 39 and 3 fluid ounces, for example, they water jar experiment. could fill the 15 fluid ounce and the 3 fluid Besides, by putting this on the web I make it ounce jar, and dump them both into the 39 available to everyone -- including “everyone In Luchins' experiment subjects were given fluid ounce jar -- but many of the subjects who else with lots of money and a social three water jars, each with a different capacity, had been given the 'practice' problems used the conscience.” and asked to measure out a specific volume of more complex solution 39 fluid ounces minus water, different from the capacity of any of the 15 fluid ounces minus 3 fluid ounces minus 3 With all the big brains that are paid to solve jars. fluid ounces.2 the world's problems why should anyone be interested in the ideas of an outsider who In one run, for example, the subject may have They used the solution they had learned, even doesn't even have a university degree? I one jar that will hold 127 fluid ounces, one though a better solution was available, and suggest that one reason is that I haven't got a that will hold 21 fluid ounces and one that will should have been obvious. degree. hold 3 fluid ounces -- call them jars A, B and C -- and be required to measure out 100 fluid In many cases the Einstellung effect is more Most of the pundits who are paid by ounces. apparent at the higher levels of an organization governments, foundations and news media than at the lower. This should be no surprise if 1 also known as path dependence 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstellung_effect turnbull, An open letter to Bill Gates page 4 we remember that the road to the top of any The Einstellung effect is a problem for organization is paved with the conventional When I asked why the new jet was not a humanity because it hinders or prevents the wisdom accepted by the organization and that, canard, the engineer had a terse answer. development of new technology and once they reach the top, many people see no encourages the application of old solutions to need to keep learning. "Because,” he said, “we have to sell these new problems, but it's a benefit to the things to dinosaurs." established order for exactly the same reasons. In fact many people stop learning long before they reach the top. Economist John Maynard He knew that most of the business CEOs who Behavioral economist and Nobel Laureate Keynes wrote, “There are not many who are are in a position to authorize the purchase of Richard Thaler offers an example of this from influenced by new ideas or theories after they new jet planes don't know much about aircraft, his own experience. are twenty five or thirty years of age, so that and they would avoid a design that looks the ideas which civil servants and politicians different. Conventional economics predicts the behavior and even agitators apply to current events are of idealized but non-existent 'rational' not likely to be the newest.”3 I call this The Einstellung effect may be produced by consumers under imaginary conditions. Keynes’ Law and, as a working reporter, I have education. If we learn to solve problems in Behavioral economics studies the behavior of seen it in action many times. school we learn the solutions that our teachers real people in real conditions. In a question learned -- which are often the solutions that and answer session after Thaler had outlined I have fond memories of the time I went, as a their teachers learned from teachers who his recent work at a conference one well- reporter with technical expertise, to the learned from teachers who learned, and so on. known economist rose to speak. introduction of a new business jet. It had a Most of the important advances of the modern conventional layout -- big wings in front and world were made by men with little formal "If I take what you are saying seriously," he small wings at the tail -- and I asked the head education -- Henry Ford left school after grade said, "what am I supposed to do? My skill is of the team that designed it why he had not eight, Thomas Edison had only three days of knowing how to solve optimization used a "canard" design -- with the main wings schooling before the teacher decided that he problems."4 at the back and small wings at the front -- was not intelligent enough to learn, John Deere which some designers think is the better was a blacksmith, the Wright brothers were That well-paid professor had only one layout. The Wright brothers first plane was a bicycle repairmen and Elisha Otis was a marketable skill -- his ability to apply canard and so are some modern fighters, craftsman before he invented the safety brake conventional methods to solve conventional home-builts and the Beechcraft ‘Starship’ of that made elevators practical. problems in conventional ways -- and if the the 1980's -- a wonderful business plane that world adopts the more-realistic science of was a commercial failure. behavioral economics he, and thousands of 3 This is said to be Keynes’ most famous quote, but it’s also one of the hardest to track down. It’s in chapter 24 of the 1936 and 1947 editions of the General Theory and on the last page of the 1939 edition but not in later editions. It’s possible that Keynes changed his mind but I think it more likely that his publisher reacted to the yowls of outraged academics, and considered the possible effect on the acceptance of Keynes’ work as course texts. If you
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