Global catastrophic risks connected with nuclear weapons and nuclear energy All information here is taken from open sources

Explosions Radioactivity Triggering natural Climate Accidents Nuclear- System Natural Direct effects of nuclear explosions and nuclear war risks biological crisis risks war

Large scale • Nuclear war between super- • Long term decline during which nukes are used many Nuclear winter powers during or after which • Natural nuclear reactor in Nuclear war against cities may fill upper atmosphere Nuclear times, Salted large- Attack on hundreds of pathogens are Earth’s nuclear war with soot, which will block sunlight and result in glob- preventing stabilization released, nuclear power stations core goes critical (or in the man- • 10 000 nukes used al cooling, wiki are blown, nuclear winter starts. tle) • Many countries participate scale bombs supervolcanoes Scenarios: power • Complex societies fail • Most big cities destroyed • Stationary doomsday cobalt bomb • Long war: constant use of • Gamma-ray bursts (Doomsday weapon for blackmail), see • May be used as Doomsday weapon 0) Nuclear autumn – several cold years, no danger nukes and pathogens • “Somali-world” Probability: medium, i.e. one per cent annually accidents Szilard • Potential targets: Yellowstone 1) 1 °C temperature decrease: Timeframe: any time • Space neutrino burst • Cobalt bomb cluster could create • 20 known supervolcanoes on Earth • year without summer • Multipandemic • No science and tech Extinction probability: small targeted radiation patterns • Several nuclear strikes could reach magma chamber • regional nuclear war • Meltdown at nuclear power station Degradation level: first level, billions of • Sun flares, superflares • Yield: Gigatons Results: local pyroclastic flows, global – climate, • billions of survivors, social unrest resulting in “corium”, which melts Result: • Resource depletion survivors, could be first step in the extinction process, • Size: Similar to a nuclear reactor, because of soot and sulphur. through crust and results in volcanic see degradation levels map 10,000 tonnes total mass, 10 Gigatone 2) 10 °C decrease for 10 years: or even verneshot eruption. (China • Earth is not suitable for long • Global warming range • large scale nuclear war syndrome). term survival: cold, dark, radio- Accidental nuclear war • Price: 10 billion USD Penetration deep into Earth’s mantle • hundreds of millions of survivors, large scale famine Very improbable. active and infectious. • Accumulated environmental • Other effects: earthquakes, smoke damage results in extinction • Many near-misses occurred • Other isotopes salted bombs are pos- and to the core 3) 10-20 °C – irreversible nuclear winter starts new • Large scale explosion in • Stevenson probe – nuclear reactor melting through • Population in millions and con- • Near-misses may help estimate probability of war, my sible and danger mostly depends on bio- Ice Age: fusion tokamak like ITER with cobalt- Earth’s mantle stantly diminishing until full ex- article chemistry: some isotopes are able to ac- • volcanic nuclear winter, positive albedo feedback contaminated blanket or deuterium • Risks of this probe are known: degazation of liquid Earth tinction • See Bruce Blair book cumulate in body (iodine, strontium) and • billions of survivors, large scale famine, many ignition in the blanket (wiki, article) core. result in longer and more dangerous in- countries perish • Could be small size, if it is a weapon Regional nuclear war ternal • Orion-style nuclear powered • May result in artificialverneshots if high pressure cham- radiation. 4) 30 C – Ice age results in Snowball Earth (300,000 nuclear bombs on board) ber 50-300 km underground is reached. • Many nuclear pairs exist (India - Pakistan) • cause: CO2 removal starship is created and then suffers Results: could cause total change in atmosphere’s com- • Could have global consequences Probability: small, feasibility not clear • total extinction catastrophic failure (wiki). position, temperature and climate, all terrestrial life ex- Timeframe: not clear • very improbable tinction. Arms race Extinction probability: medium • Large nuclear stockpiles created Degradation level: second level, bil- Probability: small • New weapons invented lions to millions of survivors, depends on Timeframe: anytime • Doomsday weapons deployed size Extinction probability: high if it results in verneshot or in case of core penetration. Other variants Degradation level: billions of survivors in the case of one • Other dangerous elements are capable super volcano, millions in the case of a verneshort, no one of being deposited inside human tissue: is case of core penetration and degazation. Nukes against bio Sterilization failure: One may try to apply nuclear weapon to destruc- C-14, tritium, strontium, polonium. tion of dangerous laboratories and sterilization of the infected areas, Nuclear summer Nuclear but result in wider bio-dissemination or nuclear war. • Nuclear torpedo with cobalt war heads • A “nuclear summer” is a hypothesized scenario in Gigaton scale (Status-6). which, after a nuclear winter has abated, a green- • Nuclear power plant, converted into Bio helps nukes house effect then occurs due to CO2 released by com- physics Modified bacteria can be applied to extraction of uranium from sea wa- dangerous isotope factory. ter and for its enrichment, and also for extraction of plutonium from bombs bustion and methane released from the decay of the spent fuel. organic matter that froze during the nuclear winter. It is supported scientifically far less, than nuclear winter, experiments Bio and nukes used • In 1960s it was proved that no limits to energy as a risk – wiki. output of fusion bomb exist (Saharov) Artificial nuclear together go awry Nuclear war occurs in world strongly infected with biological agents. • Global dimming (industrial air pollution that partly War make impossible adequate rate of manufacture of vaccines, and • Large bombs may be transported on ships simultaneously leads to intensive migration of people. Resources mitigates global warming) stops because of industrial which could be used to protect against microbes are used to protect An accelerator creates something against radiation instead. Many people are weakened and are suscep- winter collapse and accumulated global warming shows itself. tible to diseases. • Exact extinction threshold is not known: may be 20 strange and capable of growth and Nuclear A country which is losing nuclear war releases hundreds of different bombs 10 GT each in most populated chain reaction: pathogens and starting multipandemic. • Large scale taiga (or rainforest) fire started by nukes - 1 • Soot covers ice caps resulting in melting and areas - mini black hole, High radioactivity after nuclear war results in higher mutation levels attack on million sq km of taiga is needed to create firestorms that reduced albedo - stranglet, and growth of dangerous pathogens and creatures. After a pandemic, many nuclear sites will be unattended and will melt will create nuclear winter. Roland 1984 – idea, calculation - false vacuum. down, resulting in severe radiological contamination. • Current technology probably allows creation of 100 • Ozone layer is depleted was made by Moiseev based on forest density. Quarantine measure will be mistakenly implemented by nuclear weap- GT bombs weighing 20,000 tonnes and costing 10 ons (if a city is infected with dangerous virus, some may try to stop its Something unknown spread by nuking the city). billion USD. nuclear power • Geo-engineering fails • Coal mine explosions by nukes – may result in large vol- Bio and nuclear contamination of crops will result in famine or illness. ume of soot in upper atmosphere. • It is equal to 1 km. asteroid strike and not a human Nuclear winter results in crop failure, and remaining food is contami- stations Results: nated or affected by artificial pests. extinction risk if only one is built. • Mild case: extended problems with climate and food Fact: 400 active reactors in the world chain • Explosion’s effects diminish very quickly with dis- as of 2015 • Worst case: runaway global warming tance Probability: small The worst possible scenario: During Timeframe: after 2050 war, ballistic and cruise missiles are Extinction probability: small launched at all known nuclear facili- Degradation level: millions of survivors, second ties (reactors and spent fuel storage level degradation, see degradation levels map facilities) in all countries. Reactors are operating at the time of the attack.

Results: Attack on methane • A nuclear bomb explosion near reactor may result in higher yield due to fast fis- hydrates: sion of uranium and because reactor Importance of risks is already critical. Large scale • The biggest part of accumulated radio- Artificial irreversible activity is in spent fuel storages. 240,000 Importance (or urgency) of risks is subjectively estimated based nukes in space tons of it exist with 600 TBq (16,000 Cu) ton radiocatvity and it easily catch fire. global warming on their probability, timing, magnitude of expected effect and • The only factor which is able to penetrate Earth atmosphere • Almost all world radioactive materials is light and it could be used to create large scale fires. (100 MT will be airborne. Facts and thoughts: scientific basis for the risk. Importance here means how much at- bombs on 100 km may be optimal for it, as higher altitudes • Total world accumulated radioactivity • Large deposits of methane hydrates found on the Arctic ocean explosions create less light. See details in russian article.) in reactors and storages is 6 billion Curie bottom. wiki tention and efforts we should put to control the risk. • Methane hydrates are unstable and may release enormous • Atmosphere may protect (or 150 billion) and growing. • Main isotopes: strontium-90, amounts of methane if slightly disturbed. wiki • Methane is a strong greenhouse gas, 100 times stronger than • Could be created for anti-asteroid defence cesium-137 and plutonium-241. Green – just keep it in mind, do nothing • Medium surface radioactivity: If we CO2. • Could be built by self-replicating robots in space take highest estimate we get 300 curies • Previous large extinctions are associated with methane release Yellow – pay attention, do reasonable efforts to prevent on sq.km, which means activity of 3 mil- and large temperature changes. Red – pay immediate attention to prevent • Space nukes may be used for first strike on an enemy and put liroentgen per hour, 25 REM/year, which • Their abrupt release could result in positive global warming on “peaceful” satellites or space-bombers like X-37 is survivable. feedback loop. • Internal radiation is 20 times more • The positive feedback depends of the speed of release as • Space nuclear powered lasers may be aimed on Earth, wiki dangerous, so food production will be methane has short life span in atmosphere: only quick release Probability: small impossible or will result in cancer epi- could start it. Timeframe: after 2050 demic. Strontsium is able to accumulate • Runaway global warming may result in Venusian-style green Extinction probability: small in bones. house effect with temperatures as high as 1600 °C (for Earth) as Degradation level: billions to millions of survivors, water vapour is also green house gas. depending of quantity of bombs and size of the attack Consequences: • Many (10 000) nuclear explosions on the sea bottom may start • Most highly populated areas will re- large methane release. ceive much higher doses which will result • They could affect 10-100,000 sq km of ocean floor and result in acute radiation sickness and mass die- in release of 100 Gt of methane which would increase its atmos- off pheric concentration 10 times and result in 10 C immediate glob- • Famine, curtailed lifespan, al temperature increase (this is my Fermi calculation and need to societal collapse, mass die-off be checked again). • It could result in additional methane, CO2 and water vapor re- lease and form positive feedback loop. Probability: small • Some scientists think that we are already on the verge of large Large scale Timeframe: anytime methane eruption which may result in extinction in 21 century Extinction probability: small to medi- • A similar effect can be achieved by dropping millions of ordi- um nary depth charges on the seabed, and it may cost less. proliferation because Degradation level: billions or millions of survivors, depends of unknowns Probability: small Timeframe: any time of new technilogies Extinction probability: high, but many unknowns about effect magnitude Cheap and “homemade” nukes Degradation level: no survivals if there is Venusian-style runa- way global warming (more than 100 C), billions if there is “sim- Conditions: ple” global warming (2-10 C)

• Reactor grade plutonium becomes easily convertible into weapon grade, bomb tested. • 2000 tons of it has been accumulated which may be enough for 400, 000 bombs. • As energy reactors become more popular, more plutonium is created • Laser enrichment, wiki • Pure fusion nukes, wiki, blog • Antimatter triggered fusion, wiki • Laser triggered fusion (cascade of pellets), article • Muon catalysed fusion, wiki Natural • Widespread “peaceful” reactors used to create dangerous Artificial isotopes and fission materials • Z-machine triggered fusion - electric, magnetic and fission or fusion explosives combinations electromagnetic storm • Cold fusion based nukes (and other new physics) • Nanotech or robots used to make nukes material ignition Fact: • New energy sources found which could help to create bombs much • Small nuclear explosions in ionosphere create much stronger stronger than nukes • First test 1945 – risks of atmosphere ignition – proved to be im- electromagnetic pulse, which could knock out electricity 1000 • Impact ignition, link possible (LA-602) km away, wiki. • ITER-like fusion reactors may be used for proliferation, link • Underwater test – deuterium ignition? – 20 times less concentra- • Thorium has proliferation risk, link tion than is necessary for ignition, was estimated before underwa- • Small country like North Korea could do it, and they have al- ter tests by Wood ready put a satellite in polar orbit which is most suitable for Results: • Other materials in other places may have enough concentration EMP attack, link. • Very large nuclear arsenal exceeding size of the Cold war for detonation, like lithium in dry lakes arsenal • But primary for ignition must be very large like 300 meter size, • Nuclear war in space may result in • Widespread nuclear proliferation which will be overkill on Earth. • Many countries, organizations and private people have nukes • Deuterium inside giant planets like Jupiter may be naturally con- global damage. • Nuclear terrorism is a frequent occurrence centrated by gravitational separation into a deep layer Results: • Small nuclear wars are frequent • Sun detonation is impossible (no concentrated layers of deuteri- • Crypto or false flag attacks um are possible inside the Sun and ordinary hydrogen can’t be ig- • All electric power in the world lost nited in normal conditions). Consequences: • Societal collapse Complex societies disintegrate Probability: small Somali-world begins Economy collapse Timeframe: remote future Extinction probability: high

Probability: unclear, depends on timing of AI Timeframe: after 2030 Extinction probability: small Degradation level: billions of survivors, first level degradation

Non conventual nukes

• Antimatter bombs, wiki • Positron bombs (were researched in 2003 in US) • Hafnium bomb, currently impossible, wiki Dangerous chemical Other risks • Tectonic fault activation using nukes. Small chances of global ore explosion consequences • Large tsunami by large nuclear explosion. Small chances of • Nuclear weapons may be used to free large amounts of toxic global consequences Global chemicals from its natural deposit. • Large landslide (La Palma) trigger tsunami. Small chances of antipopulation war • It may be arsenium, or poisonous gas. global consequences • But no known such deposits exist. • Asteroids deflected to Earth. using targeted nukes • At least 1-10 million one-megaton bombs needed to de- stroy all known human settlement.

• This is 10-100 time more than the Cold war arsenal. Plan B failure • The world has 5 million villages. • Large bunkers and shelters may be deliberately de- stroyed during nuclear war. • UFAI could do it. • Space colonies may be also targeted by space nuclear missiles

• Large shelters may continue to possess nukes or build them and use them later

• Remaining nuclear arsenals may result in “long war” and prevent return to peaceful reconstruction of the civi- Multipolar world lization. Tech progress Wars Terrorism • Many nuclear enemy pairs Risk factors • Tech progress accelerates • Nuclear terrorism could provoke • MAD works only for two superpow- • Nuclear tech is developing too • A war could become nuclear nuclear war ers, in case of three becomes un- • Arms race and tech progress connection • Regional nuclear war could become global • Nanotech will make nukes simpler stable • War connected with nuclear terrorism • AI viruses – could gain control of missiles • Risks of war rise proliferation risks • Cypro wars are possible • New physics – could help create stronger and • Risks of war rise arm race speed • Proliferation cheaper bombs • Level of mutual hostility

Prevention methods Arms control Non proliferation Missile defence Planet unification Civil defence New level of See x-risks prevention roadmap • Civil antinuclear movement IAEA • Arms control agreements and control tech: nano, AI

© Alexey Turchin, 2015, CC3.0 license. Free copying and design editing, discuss major updates with Alexey Turchin. http://immortality-roadmap.com/ – last updated version is here. You could download pdf with working links here: http://immortality-roadmap.com/nukerisk2.pdf Or you may read a presentation here: http://www.slideshare.net/avturchin/global-catastrophic-risks-con- nected-with-nuclear-weapons-and-energy