IS CHINA PREPARED FOR GLOBAL TERRORISM? XINJIANG AND BEYOND DANIEL L. BYMAN AND ISRAA SABER SEPTEMBER 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY While China has never been a particularly strong counterterrorism partner for the United States, recent China has long faced low-level violence from the East tensions in trade and rhetoric make cooperation Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which seeks an especially unlikely in the near to medium term. independent Xinjiang. To counter the ETIM and other Differences in approaches to technology usage separatist Uighurs, the Chinese Communist Party and oversight and criticisms of China’s human (CCP) has passed laws regulating, and in some cases rights violations have added to the tension. restricting, expressions of Islamic and Turkic identity. Though, superficially, the United States and other Such levels of control have been used elsewhere in liberal democracies are still setting the global China where the CCP has felt threatened by separatist counterterrorism agenda, China has found opportunity movements. Since the 2014 “Strike Hard” campaign, to independently strengthen ties with states facing China’s crackdown in Xinjiang has escalated to terrorism threats. If China moves towards taking a include internment camps, forced labor, and daily leadership role in countering terrorism and its policies indoctrination programs. The CCP has also made great become the future standard, counterterrorism could use of technological advancements to surveil Xinjiang become an additional area of contention between residents. Besides surveillance cameras equipped Beijing and Washington. with facial recognition, the government also collects information such as biometric data, data usage, and location. This sweeping approach is used to combat INTRODUCTION what China considers to be a serious terrorism threat. China currently faces a limited terrorism threat, but this danger could increase as China’s global As China continues to develop the ways in which it presence expands. Beijing is concerned about the counters terrorism at home, it has also begun to export domestic threat posed by the East Turkestan Islamic its version of counterterrorism methods abroad. In Movement and the Turkestan Islamic Party, and as addition to selling surveillance technology to foreign China has become an international economic and governments, China has also become a more active political actor, its nationals and facilities overseas player in the international counterterrorism space. have become targets of a range of terrorist groups. It has increased its involvement with bilateral and Some of those targeting China have international multilateral counterterrorism institutions and has used links, but the most common dangers are from its soft power to suppress criticism of its tactics. This disgruntled members of Muslim minorities in China heightened involvement in counterterrorism activity that have only loose ties to established terrorist abroad combined with China’s increasing economic organizations like the Islamic State and from influence, resulting from the Belt and Road Initiative, radicalized individuals returning from Afghanistan/ have made Chinese nationals and projects larger Pakistan and Syria to Xinjiang. targets of terrorism abroad. DOMAINS OF STRATEGIC COMPETITION 1 GLOBAL CHINA IS CHINA PREPARED FOR GLOBAL TERRORISM? Beijing considers terrorism a threat to the integrity and condemnations by State Department officials being legitimacy of the Chinese state, not just a limited danger offered today. Finally, the policies of U.S. internet to individual citizens. The result has been a series of companies — whether to heed China’s wishes on massive crackdowns, with China now becoming the surveillance and content or push for free speech that world’s largest jailor of Muslims, particularly those may be exploited by communities China accuses of of the Turkic ethnic minority. In addition, Beijing has being linked to terrorism — may prove contentious. implemented a comprehensive surveillance system, Notably, while technology companies are debating enabling it to track its citizens to stop both crime whether or not to comply with Chinese Communist and any political violence before it spreads. A longer- Party (CCP) policies, a number of U.S. companies are term approach — and one that provokes considerable contributing to the development and entrenchment of resentment — is the use of policies designed to China’s surveillance program.1 encourage cultural assimilation and internal migration to areas where Turkic minorities predominate. Over The remainder of this essay has five parts. It first time, Chinese leaders hope, Muslim cultures will describes the terrorism threat to China, both at home simply be swallowed up and dissipate. and abroad. It then looks at how China has responded to this danger. The foreign policy implications are Counterterrorism, for now, has a limited impact on then examined. We then propose several reasons China’s foreign policy. Beijing has shown a willingness why China might become more involved in global to work with an array of countries, such as Saudi counterterrorism. The paper concludes by assessing Arabia, whose policies foster the spread of Salafi ideas the implications for the United States. that China opposes at home, as well as other countries like Iran which the United States considers a sponsor 1. THE TERRORISM THREAT of terrorism. For now, neither the United States nor other countries have shown more than token concern TO CHINA for China’s mass incarceration and surveillance China has long faced low-level violence from the East programs. Indeed, China is even selling its surveillance Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). ETIM, started by methods to other countries. China, however, is actively Hasan Mahsun, a Uighur Muslim from Kashgar, seeks involved in Pakistan, Nigeria, and other countries with an independent Xinjiang, which the organization refers a significant terrorism problem, and thus its nationals to as East Turkestan. Though it began as a separatist and business projects are increasingly at risk. movement, ETIM became more radical over time, in part because some of its members mixed with al- Qaida and the Taliban.2 The U.S. Treasury and State Departments classified ETIM as a terrorist group For now, China-U.S. counterterrorism in 2002 to freeze its assets, but did not officially “cooperation seems highly unlikely. designate it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.3 ETIM’s organization is muddy, but it has a jihadist, China could be an increasingly important action-oriented wing, often referred to as the Turkestan counterterrorism partner for the United States given Islamic Movement (TIM), though that name is also that both countries have a global presence, but often used for the organization as a whole. China such cooperation is not necessarily desirable given claims that the East Turkistan Education and Solidarity how differently the two countries view the threat Association (ETESA), a Uighur-led organization based and appropriate responses. For now, China-U.S. in Istanbul, is also linked to ETIM and has played a counterterrorism cooperation, be it military, law- role in sending Uighurs to fight in Syria.4 ETESA, enforcement, or intelligence-sharing focused, seems however, classifies itself as a purely dawah-oriented highly unlikely. In addition, China’s repressive policies organization committed to educating Turkic Muslims could be a sore point in bilateral relations should by “meeting their Islamic, social, cultural, spiritual, there be a U.S. administration that prioritizes human and earthly needs.”5 The Turkish government refuses rights and takes more concrete actions beyond the to crack down on the ETESA’s activities in Turkey since DOMAINS OF STRATEGIC COMPETITION 2 GLOBAL CHINA IS CHINA PREPARED FOR GLOBAL TERRORISM? Uighurs are a Turkic people and the ETESA endorses Establishing ties to extremist groups abroad the Erdoğan government. Regardless of the ETESA’s fundamentally changed groups and radical individuals involvement, Uighurs have used Turkey as an entry in China. The first members of the Turkestan Islamic point to Syria where they have forged connections with Movement were Uighurs who had fled the crackdown groups like the Islamic State.6 in Xinjiang, finding refuge in Afghanistan and Pakistan where they forged ties to, and absorbed the worldview Much of what China considers terrorism at home, of, al-Qaida and the Taliban. Although it is difficult however, appears to involve individuals or small groups to determine an exact figure, a notable number of rather than larger organizations. In February 2017, five Uighurs went to fight in Syria, falling under the sway people died when three Uighurs detonated a bomb of jihadist groups there.14 The Islamic State in 2017 outside of a government compound in Xinjiang. In pledged to attack China and has otherwise issued December 2016, another attack on a government occasional propaganda to that end. As transit to Syria building killed one person, and earlier that year a became more difficult and the war there less attractive, 7 police chief was killed in a bombing. Other notable Indonesia emerged as an alternative theater of jihad.15 incidents include the 2009 riots in Urumqi, which began when two Uighurs died during clashes between Uighurs and Han Chinese at a factory in Guangdong. 2. THE EVOLVING STATE In response, over 1,000 rioted in Urumqi resulting RESPONSE in more than 150 dead and over 1,000 injured. The Chinese counterterrorism is repressive