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Traditional Institutions, Authoritarian Legacies, and Democratic Support in Southern Africa ______ TRADITIONAL INSTITUTIONS, AUTHORITARIAN LEGACIES, AND DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA __________________________________________ A Dissertation presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School University of Missouri __________________________________________ In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy __________________________________________ by JASON M. WELLS Dr. Minion KC Morrison, Dissertation Supervisor DECEMBER 2005 © Copyright by Jason M. Wells 2005 All Rights Reserved ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS As is always the case with a project of this size, there are more individuals who deserve acknowledgement than I can possibly mention. Among these, however, a number stand out as deserving a special mention. First, I want to thank my entire dissertation committee for their patience and support. Among this group of outstanding individuals, I would like to specifically thank my advisor, KC Morrison without his help during this rather long project I would probably still be writing/revising. I also want to thank Vanya Krieckhaus for reading numerous drafts and continuously offering helpful, constructive comments. Second, I would like to thank the Department of Political Science at the University of Missouri-Columbia for providing an environment conducive to both conducting research and learning the academic ropes. It is also important to note that this dissertation would not have been possible without the support of my wife and children. Their patience with my absence during my field research and absentmindedness throughout the process were invaluable. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --------------------------------------------------------- ii LIST OF GRAPHS ------------------------------------------------------------------- v LIST OF TABLES -------------------------------------------------------------------- vi ABSTRACT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ix Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION --------------------------------------------------- 1 1.1 Research Design and Methodology 1.2 Map of the Project 1.3 Conclusion 2. THEORY: DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION, AND POPULAR SUPPORT --------------10 2.1 Conceptualizing Democracy 2.2 Understanding Democratization 2.3 Explaining Democratic Support 2.4 Summary 3. MEASURING DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA ------------------------------------------------35 3.1 Sources of Data 3.2 The Nature of Democratic Support 3.3 Measuring Democratic Support 3.4 Summary 4. A BASELINE EXPLANATION OF DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA ------------------------------57 4.1 Individuals and Democratic Support 4.2 Multivariate Analyses: Which Factors Best Explain Democratic Support 4.3 Summary 5. CHIEFS AND DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT ------------------------91 5.1 The Nature of Traditional Institutions in Southern Africa 5.2 Individuals and Traditional Institutions 5.3 Traditional Institutions and Democratic Support 5.4 Summary iii 6. THE AUTHORITARIAN PAST AND DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT ----------------------------------------------------------------128 6.1 The Nature of the Authoritarian Past in Southern Africa 6.2 Perceptions of the Past Authoritarian Regimes 6.3 Individuals’ Support for the Authoritarian Past 6.4 The Authoritarian Past and Democratic Support 6.5 Summary 7. DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT IN SOUTH AFRICA: A CASE STUDY --------------------------------------------------------166 7.1 Why South Africa? 7.2 South Africa: The Road to Democracy 7.3 Interview Data 7.4 Support for Democracy in South Africa 7.5 The Influence of Traditional Institutions in South Africa 7.6 The Influence of Authoritarian Institutions in South Africa 7.7 Summary 8. CONCLUSION ----------------------------------------------------------205 8.1 Summary of Findings 8.2 Contributions and Implications 8.3 Directions for Further Study BIBLIOGRAPHY -------------------------------------------------------------------------214 VITA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------226 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 4-1. Illustrating Representation Ratios…............................................................... 81 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 2-1 Political Regimes in Southern Africa, 2001 ...…………………………….. 34 3-1 Sample Size and Date of Survey ………………………………………….. 53 3-2 Measures of Democratic Support in Comparative Perspective …………… 54 3-3 Cross-National Distribution of Democratic Support Indices ……………... 55 3-4 Patterns of Overall Support for Democracy ……………………………… 56 4-1 Distribution of Democratic Support in Southern Africa …………………. 82 (Personal Characteristics) 4-2 Distribution of Democratic Support in Southern Africa …………………. 83 (Economic Influences) 4-3 Distribution of Democratic Support in Southern Africa …………………. 84 (Political Influences) 4-4 Ordered Logit Analyses of Democratic Support …………………………. 85 4-5 Substantive Effects; Support for Democracy as a System ……………….. 86 4-6 Substantive Effects; Support for Democracy as a Practice ………………. 87 4-7 Substantive Effects; Rejection of Non-Democratic Alternatives ……...… 88 4-8 Ordered Logit Analysis of Overall Support for Democracy ……………... 89 4-9 Substantive Effects; Overall Support for Democracy ……………………. 90 5-1 Percent of Southern Africans That Acknowledge Having a Chief ………. 118 vi 5-2 Which Individuals Acknowledge Having a Chief ……………………….. 119 (Personal Factors) 5-3 Which Individuals Acknowledge Having a Chief ……………………….. 120 (Economic Factors) 5-4 Which Individuals Acknowledge Having a Chief ……………………….. 121 (Political Factors) 5-5 Predicting Who Will Have A Chief …………………………………….... 122 5-6 Perceptions of Chiefs By Those Who Have a Chief ……………………... 123 5-7 Strength of Attachment to Chiefs ………………………………………… 124 5-8 Interaction Between Support for Chief and Support for Democracy …….. 125 5-9 Ordered Logit Estimates ………………………………………………….. 126 5-10 Substantive Change in Probabilities ………………………………………. 127 6-1 Nature of Political Regimes ..……………………………………………… 154 6-2 Comparisons of Present Regimes to Past Regimes ……………………….. 155 6-3 Strength of Attachment to Past Regimes ………………………………….. 156 6-4 Which Individuals Think the Past was Better Than the Present ………….. 157 (Personal Factors) 6-5 Which Individuals Think the Past was Better Than the Present ………….. 158 (Economic Factors) 6-6 Which Individuals Think the Past was Better Than the Present……….…. 159 (Political Factors) 6-7 Ordered Logit Analysis Predicting Perceptions of the Past ………….…… 160 6-8 Support for Democracy and Preference for the Past ……………………… 162 6-9 Ordered Logit of Democratic Support and Perceptions of the Past ………. 163 6-10 Substantive Change in Probabilities ………………………………………. 165 7-1 Key Pieces of Pre-Apatheid and Early-Apartheid Era Legislation ……..… 202 vii 7-2 Parties in the National Assembly, 2004 Election Results, ……………… 203 and Interviewees 7-3 South African Political Parties Arrayed Along an Ideological ………….. 204 Spectrum viii TRADITIONAL INSTITUTIONS, AUTHORITARIAN LEGACIES, AND DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Jason M. Wells Dr. Minion KC Morrison, Dissertation Supervisor ABSTRACT This dissertation investigates citizens’ support for democracy in southern Africa and the factors that explain variations in that support. Borrowing insights from the historical institutionalism literature, I argue that perceptions of the alternative institutional contexts will influence citizens’ support for democracy. More specifically, I argue that support for traditional institutions and/or past authoritarian regimes will influence citizens’ support for democracy. To test this argument, I use a mixed research design, comprised of both a statistical analysis of cross-national survey data and a case-study of South Africa based interviews with members of the South African Parliament. The results indicate that support for alternative institutions do influence citizens’ support for democracy, but that all institutions do not have the same effect. More specifically, I found that support for past authoritarian regimes had both a strong negative relationship with democratic support, while support for traditional institutions had a weaker, though still negative effect. ix Chapter 1: Introduction While western observers have often denounced political systems in Africa as “primitive, backward, and inferior,” the diversity of Africa’s political arrangements defy such simplistic generalizations (Schraeder 2000: 65). In reality, citizens have experienced political arrangements that have ranged from harsh authoritarian regimes dominated by a single leader to fully democratic systems. While European colonization and indigenous exploitation disrupted this rich mosaic of political systems, and military and patrimonial rule have dominated the post-colonial experience, democracy recently returned to Africa and citizens living across Africa have rejected authoritarianism, instituted democratic rules, and are adapting to life under these rules. To what extent do citizens in southern Africa support their democracies, and will this support enable democracies to avoid a return to the authoritarianism that was once so common across the African continent? Just as the initial post-colonial African democracies gave way to patrimonial autocratic states, many argue that African democracies are likely to experience a resurgence of authoritarian rule (Callaghy 1994; Ihonvbere 1996; Kaplan 1992; Kaplan 1994; van de Walle 1995). This conventional wisdom suggests that the lingering influence of authoritarian institutions, primarily traditional leaders and authoritarian
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