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UMI POLITICAL PARTICIPATION M KITCHENER-WATERLOO: A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE 1993 FEDERAL ELECTION Paul Churcher Honours Bachelor of Arts, Carleton University, 1992 THESIS Submitted to the Department of Geography in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Arts degree Wilfnd Laurier University 1999 OPaul Churcher, 1999 National Library Bibliothèque nationale l*l .canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliogaphic Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395. rue Wellington Ottawa ON KtA ON4 OttawaON KIA ON4 Canada Cana& Your hlr, VoVe rCifër(~~;~ Our lile Nome rdfdrence The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive licence allouing the exclusive permettant à la National Library of Canada to Bibliothéque nationde du Canada de reproduce, loaq disûibute or sell reproduire, prêter, distriibuer ou copies of this thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la fome de microfiche/nlm, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts f?om it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Abstract This stzïdy examines political participatio~zin the 1993 federal election in Kitchener- Waterloo. Voter tunzout is modelecl al the polhg division level using stafistïca~ arux&sis with qutiaI diagnostics. This stuàj is d@ererzffromother Candian resemch since it uses a@e scale qatial unit ami it explores the geogrqhical qeclof poIiticaI~~ciptionn The findngs confinn resultsjrom otkr rhrdies as well as showing that geography plqys a maII but sign~ficantrole in the decision to vote. Thr resulrs of the sfatisficalanaijtsis show thal polhg dzvisions are appropriate spatial unit.for the exnmhaiiotz of polificalZparticip4tion. Dernographics, poli fical motivation. qce,und voter disaffection are shown io be signzficant detennznmtls of participation ar the urban level. GIS and ~patialstatisrics are used extensive& ami their application to poIitical analyns is discussed Ac knowledgments Many people have provided assistance during the course of this research. My feilow students and fàmily have been invaluable in proof reading the manuscript and in recommending changes. Especially worthy of mention are Martin Anstey who provided many usefùl suggestions, and Hélène LeBlanc of the WiIfiid Laurier University Library who supplied tremendous support for my research. In addition, 1 would like to acknowledge the assistance of my defense committee: Dr. Bob Sharpe of Wilnid Laurier University, and Dr. Doug Dudycha and Dr. Peter Woolstencroft of University of Waterloo. Lastly but not leastly my thesis supervisor, Dr. Barry Boots, whose knowledge and assistance kept me on track throughout the whole process. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1) INTRODUCTION ...................... 2) ELECTIONS IN CANADA .............................................. 5 The Voter and the Electoral Process .................................... 5 Factors Mecting Electoral Participation ................................. 6 Canadian Politics in and Age of Restructuring ............................ 11 The 1993 Federd Election ........................................... 15 3) ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY AND SCALE ISSUES .......................... 19 Voter Participation as a Spatial Behaviour ................................ 19 ScaleIssues ....................................................... 22 4) PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND STUDY AREA .............................. 25 PreviousResearch ................................................. 25 StudyArea ....................................................... 29 5)DATA .............................................................. 35 Data Requirements ................................................. 35 SpatialMomation ................................................. 36 Digitizing .................................................. 38 GIS Used for Variable Creation .................................. 45 Attnbutelnforrnation ............................................... 50 CensusData ................................................ 51 ElectoralData ............................................... 57 6)ME?'HODS .......................................................... 61 Area Weighted Interpolation .......................................... 62 Area Weighted Interpolation Using ArcInfo ........................ 68 Sliver Polygons .............................................. 71 Interpolation Error Assessrnent .................................. 74 Sources of Error ....................................... 74 SpatialModehg ................................................... 77 Spatial Dependency ........................................... 79 Comectivity ........................................... 80 Regression Models ........................................... 83 Spatial Dependency in Regression Analysis ......................... 87 7) EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSE .....................................91 Spatial Patterns of Participation ........................................ 91 Correlations and Descriptives ......................................... 97 Scatter Plots and Purging of Hîgh Leverage Observations .................... 99 CorreIograms .................................................... 103 Bivariate Regression Andysis ........................................ 105 iii Page 8) MULTI VARIATE ANALYSIS ......................................... 108 The Models ...................................................... 110 Mode1 Application to City Zones ...................................... 116 Results of the Models .............................................. 119 Demographics and Lifecycle ................................... 121 Political Motivation ......................................... 123 Protest Factor .............................................. 125 Geographic Variables ......................................... 125 Other Discarded Variables ..................................... 129 Local Effects ............................................... 131 Residual Analysis ................................................. 133 LISA Statistic .............................................. 137 9) CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION .........*........ ...........****.-** 144 Conclusions Based upon Research Results .............................. 144 Study Limitations ........................................... 149 Discussion ...................................................... 151 Data Quality Issues ......................................... 152 Use of GIS and Spatial Statistics for Social Analysis ................. 153 Information Technology and Participatory Democracy ................ 157 The Future of Participation .................................... 162 Further Research ........................................... 162 Concluding Remarks .......................................... 163 Appendix A: Descriptive Statistics Appendix B: Correlation Matrix Appendix C: Scatter Plots Appendix D: Correlograrns Appendix E: Bivariate Regression Appendix F: Residuai Plots Table Description Page 3.1 Data Aggregation in Canadian Electoral Studies ....................... 24 4.2 Candidates Running in the 1993 Event ............................... 34 5.3 Indicators of Occupation ........................................ 53 5.4 Listing and Description of Variables ................................ 60 8.1 Regression Mode1 Specifications .................................. 112 8.2 Changes in Explained Variance of Participation ....................... 113 Figure Description Page 2.1 Registered Federal Parties 1972- 1993 ............................... 14 2.2 Number of Candidates in Federal Elections 1972-1993 .................. 14 Participation in Federal Events in Kitchener-Waterloo ................... 14 Federal Ridings in Kitchener.WaterIoo, 1993 .......................... 30 Electord and Census Spatial Units .................................. 37 Digitking Polling Divisions as Areal Units ............................ 43 A UNION Polygon Overlay Operation .............................. 64 Residential Areas in Spatial UNts .................................. 66 Area Weighted Interpolation Using Archfo .......................... 69 Sliver Polygons After UNION OverIay .............................. 73 Interpolation Error Assessrnent .................................... 73 Map of Polling Divisions Deleted fiom the Study ....................... 78 Forms of Polygon Comectivity .................................... 81 Participation Rates in Kitchener-Waterloo ............................ 92 Kitchener-Waterloo Neighbourhoods ................................ 94 Party Support in the 1993 Event ................................... 96 Standardized Residuals ......................................... 135 Change in Participation Rates fiom 1992 to 1 993 ................... .. 138 Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation ........................... 140 Chapter One Introduction In his most reflective moments even the most experienced politician senses a nugging curiosity about why people vote as rhey do. (Key quoted in Landes, 1987) Individually, the act of voting is a simple procedure where a citizen marks a ballot regarding