The Promotion Mechanism of Political Elites in Reforming China
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The Promotion Mechanism of Political Elites in Reforming China Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Rongrong Lin School of East Asian Studies August, 2015 Contents ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ 4 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................... 6 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................ 8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................. 12 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. 15 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 16 CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE................................................................................ 31 2.1 HUMAN CAPITAL AFFECTING CAREER MOBILITY OUTCOMES ..................................................... 32 2.1.1 Education in Career Mobility ................................................................................. 33 2.1.2 Work Experience in Career Mobility ...................................................................... 36 2.1.3 Summary of Human Capital ................................................................................... 39 2.2 SOCIAL CAPITAL AFFECTING CAREER MOBILITY OUTCOMES ...................................................... 40 2.2.1 Strength of Weak Ties ............................................................................................ 41 2.2.2 Social Resources Theory ......................................................................................... 43 2.2.3 Structural Hole Argument ...................................................................................... 45 2.2.4 Summary of Social Capital ..................................................................................... 47 2.3 HUMAN CAPITAL AND SOCIAL CAPITAL IN CAREER MOBILITY: RESEARCH GAPS ............................ 48 2.4 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESES ......................................................... 51 2.4.1 Human Capital in Promotion Dynamics ................................................................. 53 2.4.2 Social Capital in Promotion Dynamics ................................................................... 57 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .......................................................................... 63 3.1 WHY USE EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS? ................................................................................... 63 3.1.1 Censoring ............................................................................................................... 64 3.1.2 Time-Varying Covariates ........................................................................................ 67 3.2 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................................. 70 3.2.1 Data Sources .......................................................................................................... 70 3.2.2 Sample ................................................................................................................... 78 3.3 DATA INPUT ...................................................................................................................... 80 3.3.1 Observation Plans .................................................................................................. 80 3.3.2 Dependent Variables .............................................................................................. 85 3.3.3 Explanatory Variables ............................................................................................ 88 3.3.4 Control Variables ................................................................................................... 97 3.3.5 Person-Year Observations ...................................................................................... 99 3.4 DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................... 107 CHAPTER 4 CHINESE PROVINCIAL LEADERS: A DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ....................... 111 4.1 AGE ............................................................................................................................... 111 4.2 GENDER ......................................................................................................................... 121 4.3 ETHNICITY ....................................................................................................................... 128 4.4 PROVINCIAL ORIGIN ......................................................................................................... 135 4.5 PARTY MEMBERSHIP ........................................................................................................ 143 4.6 CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION .......................................................................................... 147 CHAPTER 5 HUMAN CAPITAL OF CHINESE PROVINCIAL LEADERS ................................... 153 5.1 EDUCATION: TWO TIME-POINT ASSESSMENT ....................................................................... 154 5.1.1 Why Differentiate Formal and Final Education? .................................................. 155 5.1.2 Educational Level: Formal Education versus Final Education .............................. 163 5.1.3 Academic Major: Formal Education versus Final Education ................................ 172 1 5.2 EDUCATION CHANGES: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS ...................................................................... 181 5.2.1 Changes in Educational Levels ............................................................................. 184 5.2.2 Changes in Academic Majors ............................................................................... 190 5.3 SENIORITY IN PUBLIC SERVICE ............................................................................................ 196 5.4 TECHNOCRACY OR POLITICAL TECHNOCRACY? ...................................................................... 199 5.5 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 205 CHAPTER 6 SOCIAL CAPITAL OF CHINESE PROVINCIAL LEADERS ..................................... 209 6.1 SOCIAL CAPITAL OF CHINESE PROVINCIAL LEADERS ................................................................ 210 6.1.1 Network Size ........................................................................................................ 210 6.1.2 Network Diversity ................................................................................................ 219 6.2 SOCIAL CAPITAL ACROSS ADMINISTRATIVE RANKS ................................................................. 228 6.2.1 Network Size ........................................................................................................ 229 6.2.2 Network Diversity ................................................................................................ 241 6.2.3 Upper Reachability ............................................................................................... 246 6.3 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 248 CHAPTER 7 POLITICAL UPWARD MOBILITY OF CHINESE PROVINCIAL LEADERS ............... 251 7.1 UPWARD MOBILITY ACROSS ADMINISTRATIVE RANKS ............................................................ 253 7.1.1 The Age at Promotion .......................................................................................... 253 7.1.2 The Duration at the Prior Administrative Rank at Promotion ............................. 256 7.1.3 The Leapfrog Promotion ...................................................................................... 262 7.2 LIFE TABLES OF POLITICAL UPWARD MOBILITY ...................................................................... 262 7.2.1 The Life Table Method ......................................................................................... 263 7.2.2 Promotion to the Deputy-Division-Head Level ..................................................... 268 7.2.3 Promotion to the Division-Head Level ................................................................. 270 7.2.4 Promotion to the Deputy-Bureau/Director Level ................................................. 273 7.2.5 Promotion to the Bureau/Director Level .............................................................. 275 7.2.6 Promotion to the Vice-Provincial/Ministerial Level ............................................. 277 7.2.7 Promotion to Provincial/Ministerial Level ........................................................... 279 7.2.8 Summary .............................................................................................................. 282 7.3 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 285 CHAPTER 8 PROMOTION DYNAMICS OF PROVINCIAL LEADERS: THE EFFECTS OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND SOCIAL CAPITAL ...................................................................................... 288 8.1 OVERVIEW OF THE PROMOTION DYNAMICS ANALYSIS ............................................................ 290