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Read Full Report (PDF) Equity Research - 04 December 2019 06:29 CET Fastpartner Reason: In-depth research Company sponsored research In a club that has outperformed the sector Not rated One of the entrepreneur-led real estate success stories ~19% 2020e EPRA NAVPS growth, adj. for dividends CEPS growth of 15% in ‘20e, sector at 6% Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Above-sector average returns Rental income RE (%) 0.9% 5.9% 6.5% Our analysis concludes that entrepreneur-led real estate companies NOI (%) -0.1% 5.9% 6.7% have consistently outperformed the Carnegie Real Estate Index. In our CEPS adj (%) 3.7% 8.3% 11.5% view, Fastpartner and its CEO, Sven-Olof Johansson, belong in this Source: ABG Sundal Collier group. What these entrepreneurial leaders have in common is that they Share price (SEK) 02/12/2019 91.6 have large share ownership in their companies, have capital allocation strategies that can be unconventional and are more focused on long- Real Estate, Sweden term value than short-term gain. In the past five years, Fastpartner has FPAR.ST/FPAR SS generated a return of ~190%, which is 20pp better than the Carnegie Real Estate Index ~170%) and 170pp better than the OMXS30 ~22%). MCap (SEKm) 16,570 MCap (EURm) 1,568.7 Average EPRA NAV growth of ~20% p.a. over ’19-’21e Net debt (EURm) 1,269 We forecast CEPS growth of 17% in ’19e and 15% in ’20e (vs. sector growth of 10% and 6% based on ABGSC estimates). The main drivers No. of shares (m) 181 are rental income growth from announced acquisitions and projects, plus Free float (%) 30.0 a higher NOI margin. We forecast value uplifts of 7.6% in ’19e and 5.5% Av. daily volume (k) 87.5 in ’20e, coupled with a CEPS contribution of ~6% p.a., which takes EPRA NAVPS to SEK 72 and SEK 84 in ’19e and ’20e. These estimates Next event Q4 report: 13 Feb imply EPRA NAVPS growth (adjusted for dividends) of 23% and 19% in ’19e and ’20e, vs. sector growth of 15% and 12%. Performance 220 Fair equity value range of SEK 67-134 200 On our ’20 estimates with the stock trading at the current P/EPRA NAV 180 multiple of ~1.2x, we get an equity value of SEK 100. If the share were to 160 trade at its historical low of a P/EPRA NAV of ~0.8x, we get an equity value 140 of SEK 67, and at its historical high of ~1.6x, we get an equity value of SEK 120 134. This gives us a fair value range of SEK 67-134. Fastpartner’s current 100 80 EPRA NAV premium of ~24% is in line with the sector premium. On P/CEPS Apr 17 Apr Oct 17 Oct Apr 18 Apr Oct 18 Oct Apr 19 Apr Oct 19 Oct Jun 17 Jun Jun 18 Jun Jun 19 Jun Feb 17 Feb Feb 18 Feb Feb 19 Feb Dec 16 Dec Aug 17 Aug Dec 17 Dec Aug 18 Aug Dec 18 Dec TTM multiples, Fastpartner’s ~24x multiple is 20% higher than the sector’s 19 Aug Fastpartner OMX STH PI ~20x. We note that both Fastpartner and the sector are trading at historically high multiples. 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 12.8 11.2 58.6 Lead analyst: Staffan Bulow OMX STH PI (%) 0.2 7.6 16.5 Tobias Kaj Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e SEKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/CEPS Adj. 24.0 20.9 19.2 Rental Income 1,349 1,451 1,658 1,844 1,931 P/EPRANAV 1.27 1.10 0.95 Net operating income 936 982 1,144 1,288 1,356 Implicit yield (%) 3.6 3.8 4.0 NOI margin (%) 69.4 67.7 69.0 69.9 70.2 div.yield (%) 2.1 2.2 2.3 CEPS Adj 3.15 3.26 3.82 4.38 4.77 Net LTV (%) 50.0 50.4 48.7 DPS 1.43 1.60 1.90 2.00 2.10 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPRA NAVPS 50.2 59.7 72.1 83.6 96.2 EPS 7.81 9.77 10.48 3.94 4.29 Rental growth (%) 6.2 7.5 14.3 11.2 4.7 CEPS Adj. growth (%) 5.5 3.5 17.2 14.7 8.9 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Fastpartner Opportunities Risks Over the years, FastPartner has developed a portfolio of The main risk for a real estate company is the macro about 200,000 sqm residential building rights and development in the markets in which it operates. The approximately 200,000 sqm commercial building rights. demand situation should be more sustainable in Stockholm The untapped building rights are in different stages, i.e. given the growing population, but historically volatility has ranging from development of zoning plans, approved been higher in the downturns. Moreover, the major zoning plans to established construction. Presently, there shareholder and CEO of FastPartner, Sven-Olof are good opportunities to convert these into leasable Johansson, is very important to the company. areas. Value distribution by region Occupancy rate and rental income/m2 90% 1,200 90.5% 80% 1,000 90.0% 70% 89.5% 60% 800 50% 89.0% 600 40% 88.5% 30% 400 88.0% 20% 200 10% 87.5% 0% 0 87.0% Greater Gävle Greater Norrköping 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Stockholm Gothenburg and other Rental income/m² Value distribution/Region Occupancy rate R.H.S Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data CEPS adj., y-o-y change Growth in NOI and CEPS adj., y-o-y 5.0 35.0% 3.5 35.0% 4.5 30.0% 3.0 30.0% 4.0 3.5 25.0% 2.5 25.0% 3.0 20.0% 2.0 20.0% 2.5 2.0 15.0% 1.5 15.0% 1.5 10.0% 1.0 10.0% 1.0 5.0% 0.5 0.5 5.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CEPS adj. CEPS adj y-o-y change R.H.S Growth in NOI R.H.S Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPRA NAV and share price Company description FastPartner owns, manages and develops primarily 120.0 commercial real estate. The portfolio consists mainly of warehouse and production properties, but also offices and 100.0 retail premises. Greater Stockholm is and remains 80.0 FastPartner's most prioritized investment area. About 80% of rental income comes from the Greater Stockholm area 60.0 and 20% from the rest of the country, with Gävle as the largest management unit. Moreover, FastPartner's property 40.0 portfolio includes five properties in Stockholm city. 20.0 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e EPRANAV/Share Share price Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 4 December 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Fastpartner Table of contents Summary ...................................................................................................... 4 Growth strategy ............................................................................................ 6 Fastpartner vs. the sector ............................................................................. 9 Estimates ................................................................................................... 19 Valuation .................................................................................................... 22 Risks .......................................................................................................... 26 Appendix – Company Overview ................................................................. 28 Appendix - Macro overview ........................................................................ 32 Appendix - Stockholm real estate fundamentals ......................................... 37 Appendix – Management ............................................................................ 43 Appendix – Ownership ............................................................................... 44 Appendix – preference and D-shares explained ......................................... 45 Appendix – Financial targets ...................................................................... 47 4 December 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 3 Fastpartner Summary Our analysis concludes that entrepreneur-led real estate companies have consistently outperformed the Carnegie Real Estate Index. In our view Fastpartner and its CEO, Sven-Olof Johansson, belong in this group. On our ’20 estimates with the stock trading at the current P/EPRA NAV multiple of ~1.2x, we get an equity value of SEK 100. If the share were to trade at its historical low of a P/EPRA NAV of ~0.8x, we get an equity value of SEK 67, and at its historical high of ~1.6x, we get an equity value of SEK 134. This gives us a fair value range of SEK 67-134. In our view, a key component for successful real estate companies, or any company, is management. We believe that Fastpartner’s CEO possesses a number of management characteristics that have proven successful. Historically, the Swedish real estate companies that have created the most shareholder value have been led by what we call entrepreneurial CEOs. Evaluating the shareholder value performance of entrepreneurial-driven companies vs. non-entrepreneurial shows that on average they have outperformed the sector. In our analysis, we use the Carnegie Real Estate Index (CREX) as our benchmark index, which comprises Swedish real estate companies. The index, which dates back to 1994, is one of the most used indexes to compare returns in Sweden’s real estate sector. On page 11, we outline the criteria that we have used to identify the group. In essence, we argue that a number of Swedish real estate entrepreneurs (such as Erik Selin - Balder, David Mindus - Sagax, Jens Engwall – Hemfosa and Nyfosa, Hans Wallenstam - Wallenstam, Rutger Arnhult – Corem and Klövern, and Sven- Olof Johansson – Fastpartner) share the following value-creating characteristics: Incentives: these entrepreneurs hold substantial ownership stakes in their companies.
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