the bulletin of the CENTER FOR Fall ı GOVERNMENTAL 2001 STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CGS Hosts Final Virginia Gubernatorial Debate THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA relations firm with offices in Center for Governmental Studies and Richmond, Washington, D.C. and the Virginia Capitol Correspondents Northern Virginia. Interestingly, the Association co-hosted the final sched- chairmen of both the Warner cam- uled debate between Virginia guberna- paign and the Earley steering commit- torial candidates Mark Warner and tee are part of the McGuireWoods Mark Earley on Wednesday, October team. 10, 2001. Center Director Larry J. The debate featured opening and Sabato moderated the debate pro- closing statements by each candidate, duced by WDBJ7, a Roanoke CBS affil- “Electronic Town Hall” questions iate. The debate was broadcast live or submitted via e-mail prior to the on tape delay on eleven statewide and debate, and a traditional panel of national television and radio stations, broadcast and print reporters. Websites including C-SPAN. and media outlets across the Com- The event was underwritten by monwealth, including www.goodpoli- McGuireWoods Consulting, a bi-parti- tics.org and www.youthleadership. san government affairs and public net, accepted nearly 900 proposed questions for use in the “Electronic Town Hall” segment, making the event the most interactive debate in Virginia history. The press panel for the debate included the following accomplished reporters: Ellen Qualls of WDBJ7, who serves as president of the Virginia Capitol Correspondents Association; Jeff Kraus from WVIR in Charlottesville; Matt Brock from News Channel 8 in Northern Virginia; and Pamela Stallsmith from the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Larry Sabato moderates the October 10th gubernatorial debate. The candidates hammered away at EARLEY: “I think it is important for Virginians to have the opportunity to hear us discuss the issues.” WARNER: “I think this debate is a good forum for us to exchange views and demonstrate the clear choices.” their campaign themes throughout opportunity to learn more about the to bring the event to the people of the debate. Warner and Earley candidates, as well as introduce the Virginia. The Center once again pro- clashed repeatedly over the issue of Center and the Youth Leadership duced an informative, fair and inter- raising the sales tax in Northern Initiative to a larger audience.” active political event. CGS continues Virginia to finance $900 million in The debate was originally sched- its commitment to involve and edu- transportation projects. The heated uled for Sunday, October 7, but was cate Virginia voters and inspire debate included questions about postponed due to U.S. military air interest in the political process. felons’ voting rights, hate crimes, strikes in Afghanistan. After intense “With participating stations in all and education. Though many of negotiations with the television sta- of the Commonwealth’s media mar- their responses were characteristical- tions and both campaigns, the kets, this was the most widely ly similar, both candidates returned Center and the Virginia Capitol broadcast political debate in Vir- time and again to the issues of taxes Correspondents Association ginia history,” said Alex Theodor- and negative campaign strategies. rescheduled the debate for idis, CGS Chief of Staff. “We are Debate moderator and CGS Wednesday, October 10. delighted to offer this valuable Director Larry J. Sabato said, “We The debate was a tremendous resource to the voters of Virginia for were pleased to give Virginians the success and the Center worked hard the second year in a row.” • IN MEMORIAM The Center for Governmental Studies mourns the loss 2 of a great friend, a remarkable legislator, and true Virginian. Senator Emily Couric was a devoted supporter of the Center, particularly the Youth Leadership Initiative. Her 1999 Senate race was the focus of YLI’s first mock election and student-led debate, and her enthusiastic dedication to civic involvement by our young people helped make this program a success. Her guidance, support, and 2001 friendship will be greatly missed but never forgotten. ı Fall Election Weather Forecast Virginia’s Bellwethers May Point the Way to Victory and Defeat By Larry J. Sabato tuan county of Fairfax have picked wethers are not heavily populated, SO WHICH WAY IS THE every governor in the eight elections and they are geographically scat- WIND BLOWING in Virginia’s between 1969 and 1997. tered. 2001 governor’s race? You can look In addition to the twin Fairfaxes, At the other end of the spectrum to public opinion polls for the there were 18 near-bellwethers. Five are eight anti-bellwethers: Charles answer, though they often change cities and thirteen counties chose City, Greensville, New Kent, with the wind. Or you can look to the winner in seven of eight elec- Norfolk, Petersburg, Portsmouth, history. tions: the cities of Franklin, Galax, Prince George, and Surry. These There are “bellwether” cities and Lexington, Newport News, and three cities and five counties have counties that always or almost Salem, and the counties of Bedford, the state’s worst record for picking always have voted with the winner Bland, Fluvanna, Gloucester, winners—just three of the last eight of the Governor’s Mansion in Lunenberg, Madison, Middlesex, governors. With the exceptions of Virginia’s modern two-party era, Montgomery, Orange, Prince New Kent and Prince George coun- which began in 1969 with the elec- Edward, Prince William, ties, the anti-bellwethers are heavily tion of the state’s first Republican Southampton, and Wythe. In most Democratic with a large African- governor since the 1880s, Linwood cases, these localities have a closely American constituency; naturally, Holton. Out of the 95 counties and split political personality. They are they voted only for the three suc- 39 independent cities that currently competitive with a substantial base cessful Democratic governors in the exist in the Commonwealth, exactly of support for both Democrats and 1980s. TWO localities have gotten it right Republicans, yet neither party claims There is another way to measure every single time. a solid majority of residents. Swing bellwethers that is a little more pre- Surprisingly, these localities are independents, moving from side to cise. In addition to the number of not found in the Old Dominion’s side with regularity, determine the prescient picks, we can also examine heartland, but in the region consid- identity of successful candidates in each election year how close or ered—at least by down-staters—to there. Also, with the exceptions of far from the winner’s statewide aver- be the most liberal and least repre- Newport News city and sentative, Northern Virginia. The Montgomery county, the near-bell- small city of Fairfax and the gargan- Frederick WINCHESTER Clarke Loudoun Warren ARLINGTON FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH Fauquier M A N ALEXANDRIA Shenandoah A MANASSAS S S PARK A S Fairfax Page Rappahannock Prince VIRGINIA'S BELLWETHER LOCALITIES William Rockingham Culpeper Stafford Madison Highland HARRISONBURG FREDERICKSBURG King Bellwether (8 of 8 elections correct) Augusta Orange George 3 STAUNTON Spotsylvania Westmoreland Albemarle Bath Caroline Near Bellwether (7 of 8 elections correct) WAYNESBORO Louisa Essex Richmond CHARLOTTESVILLE Northumberland Rockbridge Fluvanna Hanover King W King and Queen Lancaster Alleghany LEXINGTON Nelson Anti-Bellwether (3 of 8 elections correct) Goochland illiam BUENA COVINGTON VISTA Middlesex Accomack Amherst RICHMOND Botetourt Buckingham Powhatan New Kent Gloucester Craig Henrico James Mathews Cumberland Chesterfield Charles City Northampton Appomattox City BEDFORD LYNCHBURG Amelia SALEM COLONIAL WILLIAMSBURG Giles HEIGHTS HOPEWELL Buchanan Prince Edward York ROANOKE Bedford PETERSBURG Prince POQUOSON Montgomery Campbell George Prince George Dickenson Bland Roanoke Nottoway Tazewell RADFORD Dinwiddie HAMPTON Newport News Wise Charlotte Pulaski Isle of NORFOLK NORTON Franklin Lunenburg Sussex Russell Wight Virginia Wythe Floyd PORTSMOUTH Beach Smyth Pittsylvania Brunswick Fall Lee Carroll Halifax EMPORIA Southampton FRANKLIN Chesapeake Scott Washington GALAX MARTINSVILLE Suffolk DANVILLE Mecklenburg BRISTOL Grayson Patrick Greensville Henry ı Copyright 2001, Larry J. Sabato, UVa Center for Governmental Studies 2001 Design by Joshua Scott, UVa Center for Governmental Studies age vote each locality was. The ties (106 of the then-135), he lost to 2000, for example.1 (There are accompanying list puts all of the small cities of Franklin and 100 counties in North Carolina, Virginia’s localities in the order of Lexington, which since 1969 had only a slightly larger number than most bellwether-like (Fairfax coun- been totally on the money. Great in Virginia.) ty) to least (Charles City county). confidence in any single bellwether, Maybe November will prove that Check and see how your locality then, is misplaced. Even in the most the crown rests uneasily on fares in these rankings on the Center accurate localities, the proportion of Virginia’s northern champions. But for Governmental Studies website, the votes given to the winning can- for now, if you are heading to the www.goodpolitics.org. didates have often not closely mir- voting booth or maybe even the How much stock should we place rored the statewide vote. For racetrack, you might want to bring in bellwethers, especially as a pre- instance, Galax was 13.4% under along a friend and adviser from dictive tool for 2001? The odds are the statewide