the bulletin of the

CENTER FOR Fall ı GOVERNMENTAL 2001 STUDIES

UNIVERSITY OF

CGS Hosts Final Virginia Gubernatorial Debate

THE relations firm with offices in Center for Governmental Studies and Richmond, Washington, D.C. and the Virginia Capitol Correspondents . Interestingly, the Association co-hosted the final sched- chairmen of both the Warner cam- uled debate between Virginia guberna- paign and the Earley steering commit- torial candidates and tee are part of the McGuireWoods Mark Earley on Wednesday, October team. 10, 2001. Center Director Larry J. The debate featured opening and Sabato moderated the debate pro- closing statements by each candidate, duced by WDBJ7, a Roanoke CBS affil- “Electronic Town Hall” questions iate. The debate was broadcast live or submitted via e-mail prior to the on tape delay on eleven statewide and debate, and a traditional panel of national television and radio stations, broadcast and print reporters. Websites including C-SPAN. and media outlets across the Com- The event was underwritten by monwealth, including www.goodpoli- McGuireWoods Consulting, a bi-parti- tics.org and www.youthleadership. san government affairs and public net, accepted nearly 900 proposed questions for use in the “Electronic Town Hall” segment, making the event the most interactive debate in Virginia history. The press panel for the debate included the following accomplished reporters: Ellen Qualls of WDBJ7, who serves as president of the Virginia Capitol Correspondents Association; Jeff Kraus from WVIR in Charlottesville; Matt Brock from News Channel 8 in Northern Virginia; and Pamela Stallsmith from the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Larry Sabato moderates the October 10th gubernatorial debate. The candidates hammered away at EARLEY: “I think it is important for Virginians to have the opportunity to hear us discuss the issues.”

WARNER: “I think this debate is a good forum for us to exchange views and demonstrate the clear choices.”

their campaign themes throughout opportunity to learn more about the to bring the event to the people of the debate. Warner and Earley candidates, as well as introduce the Virginia. The Center once again pro- clashed repeatedly over the issue of Center and the Youth Leadership duced an informative, fair and inter- raising the sales tax in Northern Initiative to a larger audience.” active political event. CGS continues Virginia to finance $900 million in The debate was originally sched- its commitment to involve and edu- transportation projects. The heated uled for Sunday, October 7, but was cate Virginia voters and inspire debate included questions about postponed due to U.S. military air interest in the political process. felons’ voting rights, hate crimes, strikes in Afghanistan. After intense “With participating stations in all and education. Though many of negotiations with the television sta- of the Commonwealth’s media mar- their responses were characteristical- tions and both campaigns, the kets, this was the most widely ly similar, both candidates returned Center and the Virginia Capitol broadcast political debate in Vir- time and again to the issues of taxes Correspondents Association ginia history,” said Alex Theodor- and negative campaign strategies. rescheduled the debate for idis, CGS Chief of Staff. “We are Debate moderator and CGS Wednesday, October 10. delighted to offer this valuable Director Larry J. Sabato said, “We The debate was a tremendous resource to the voters of Virginia for were pleased to give Virginians the success and the Center worked hard the second year in a row.” •

IN MEMORIAM

The Center for Governmental Studies mourns the loss

2 of a great friend, a remarkable legislator, and true Virginian. Senator Emily Couric was a devoted supporter of the Center, particularly the Youth Leadership Initiative. Her 1999 Senate race was the focus of YLI’s first mock election and student-led debate, and her enthusiastic dedication to civic involvement by our young people helped make this program a success. Her guidance, support, and

2001 friendship will be greatly missed but never forgotten. ı Fall Election Weather Forecast Virginia’s Bellwethers May Point the Way to Victory and Defeat

By Larry J. Sabato tuan county of Fairfax have picked wethers are not heavily populated, SO WHICH WAY IS THE every governor in the eight elections and they are geographically scat- WIND BLOWING in Virginia’s between 1969 and 1997. tered. 2001 governor’s race? You can look In addition to the twin Fairfaxes, At the other end of the spectrum to public opinion polls for the there were 18 near-bellwethers. Five are eight anti-bellwethers: Charles answer, though they often change cities and thirteen counties chose City, Greensville, New Kent, with the wind. Or you can look to the winner in seven of eight elec- Norfolk, Petersburg, Portsmouth, history. tions: the cities of Franklin, Galax, Prince George, and Surry. These There are “bellwether” cities and Lexington, Newport News, and three cities and five counties have counties that always or almost Salem, and the counties of Bedford, the state’s worst record for picking always have voted with the winner Bland, Fluvanna, Gloucester, winners—just three of the last eight of the Governor’s Mansion in Lunenberg, Madison, Middlesex, governors. With the exceptions of Virginia’s modern two-party era, Montgomery, Orange, Prince New Kent and Prince George coun- which began in 1969 with the elec- Edward, Prince William, ties, the anti-bellwethers are heavily tion of the state’s first Republican Southampton, and Wythe. In most Democratic with a large African- governor since the 1880s, Linwood cases, these localities have a closely American constituency; naturally, Holton. Out of the 95 counties and split political personality. They are they voted only for the three suc- 39 independent cities that currently competitive with a substantial base cessful Democratic governors in the exist in the Commonwealth, exactly of support for both Democrats and 1980s. TWO localities have gotten it right Republicans, yet neither party claims There is another way to measure every single time. a solid majority of residents. Swing bellwethers that is a little more pre- Surprisingly, these localities are independents, moving from side to cise. In addition to the number of not found in the Old Dominion’s side with regularity, determine the prescient picks, we can also examine heartland, but in the region consid- identity of successful candidates in each election year how close or ered—at least by down-staters—to there. Also, with the exceptions of far from the winner’s statewide aver- be the most liberal and least repre- Newport News city and sentative, Northern Virginia. The Montgomery county, the near-bell- small city of Fairfax and the gargan- Frederick

WINCHESTER Clarke Loudoun

Warren ARLINGTON FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH Fauquier M A N ALEXANDRIA Shenandoah A MANASSAS S S PARK A S Fairfax Page Rappahannock Prince VIRGINIA'S BELLWETHER LOCALITIES William Rockingham Culpeper Stafford Madison

Highland HARRISONBURG FREDERICKSBURG King Bellwether (8 of 8 elections correct) Augusta Orange George 3 STAUNTON Spotsylvania Westmoreland Albemarle Bath Caroline Near Bellwether (7 of 8 elections correct) WAYNESBORO Louisa Essex Richmond CHARLOTTESVILLE Northumberland Rockbridge Fluvanna Hanover King W King and Queen Lancaster Alleghany LEXINGTON Nelson Anti-Bellwether (3 of 8 elections correct) Goochland illiam BUENA COVINGTON VISTA Middlesex Accomack

Amherst RICHMOND Botetourt Buckingham Powhatan New Kent Gloucester Craig Henrico James Mathews Cumberland Chesterfield Charles City Northampton Appomattox City BEDFORD LYNCHBURG Amelia SALEM COLONIAL WILLIAMSBURG Giles HEIGHTS HOPEWELL Buchanan Prince Edward York ROANOKE Bedford PETERSBURG Prince POQUOSON Montgomery Campbell George Prince George Dickenson Bland Roanoke Nottoway Tazewell RADFORD Dinwiddie HAMPTON Newport News Wise Charlotte Pulaski Isle of NORFOLK NORTON Franklin Lunenburg Sussex Russell Wight Virginia Wythe Floyd PORTSMOUTH Beach Smyth Pittsylvania

Brunswick Fall Lee Carroll Halifax EMPORIA Southampton FRANKLIN Chesapeake Scott Washington GALAX MARTINSVILLE Suffolk DANVILLE Mecklenburg BRISTOL Grayson Patrick Greensville

Henry ı

Copyright 2001, Larry J. Sabato, UVa Center for Governmental Studies 2001 Design by Joshua Scott, UVa Center for Governmental Studies age vote each locality was. The ties (106 of the then-135), he lost to 2000, for example.1 (There are accompanying list puts all of the small cities of Franklin and 100 counties in North Carolina, Virginia’s localities in the order of Lexington, which since 1969 had only a slightly larger number than most bellwether-like (Fairfax coun- been totally on the money. Great in Virginia.) ty) to least (Charles City county). confidence in any single bellwether, Maybe November will prove that Check and see how your locality then, is misplaced. Even in the most the crown rests uneasily on fares in these rankings on the Center accurate localities, the proportion of Virginia’s northern champions. But for Governmental Studies website, the votes given to the winning can- for now, if you are heading to the www.goodpolitics.org. didates have often not closely mir- voting booth or maybe even the How much stock should we place rored the statewide vote. For racetrack, you might want to bring in bellwethers, especially as a pre- instance, Galax was 13.4% under along a friend and adviser from dictive tool for 2001? The odds are the statewide average for Doug Fairfax. • substantial that, as a group, the bell- Wilder in 1989; Fairfax county voted wethers and near-bellwethers will 6.7% under the statewide average Sabato is the author of OVERTIME! probably be right again. Thus, the for George Allen in 1993; and The Election 2000 Thriller press and academics would be justi- Prince William was 7.2% over the (Longman), and he wishes to thank fied in sending reporters and average for Jim Gilmore in 1997. Joshua J. Scott, Peter Sheeran, and researchers into these localities to Still, the crown belongs to Cagri Tanyol of the UVa Center for test sentiments before the “Fairfax squared” for now, and it is Governmental Studies for their research November vote. an impressive and highly selective assistance. However, consider this: before title in Virginia. Our neighbor to the 1997, there were four, not two, per- south, North Carolina, has many 1 Eric Johnson, “North Carolina’s Presidential fect bellwethers. Even though more bellwethers. Twenty-six coun- Bellwethers,” N.C. Data Net (June 2001): 1-3. Governor Jim Gilmore carried the ties there have picked the presiden- vast majority of all the state’s locali- tial winner consistently from 1968

Exploring America’s New Political Landscape

4

THETHE DECEMBER 3, 2001 UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA AMERICANAMERICAN Sponsored by the Center for Governmental Studies and The Hotline DEMOCRACYDEMOCRACY Free and open to the public CONFERENCECONFERENCE For more information call Joshua Scott at 434-243-3540 2001 ı Fall Students Respond to National Tragedy

ALEX THEODORIDIS, CHIEF OF STAFF

By moving forward and by channeling their civic energy toward relief

efforts, the students of the Youth Leadership Initiative have provided

all of us an outstanding model.

Burley YLI THE TRAGIC EVENTS OF SEPTEM- described the scene as “surreal.” In the classmates, made announcements students raised BER 11 have touched every American Old Bridge Township public school over the school intercom, and over $4,000 in some way, and we all grieve for our system, where every middle and high designed a bulletin board with an for New York wounded nation and for those who school is participating in YLI, 11 stu- illustration of a thermometer City relief efforts. lost loved ones in New York, Pennsyl- dents lost at least one parent. tracking how much money they vania and here in Virginia. These “These unfortunate events have had raised. A few weeks and sev- attacks and their aftermath have made it logistically very difficult to eral extensions of the thermome- shown us both the nadir of human implement the Youth Leadership Ini- ter later, the students have brought in cruelty and anguish and the zenith of tiative,” noted Jean Spears, Old Bridge over $4,000 from students, teachers the human spirit. Township’s social studies supervisor, and the community. In many ways, the Center’s experi- “but they’ve also made us even more By moving forward and by chan- ences over the past few weeks repre- determined to take part in this pro- neling their civic energy toward relief sent a microcosm of what the nation gram that encourages participation in efforts, the students of the Youth has felt. democracy. It’s more important now Leadership Initiative have provided all The Center’s Youth Leadership Ini- than ever before.” of us an outstanding model. By their tiative, a program met by overwhelm- Here in Virginia, we have seen the example, they have challenged their ing success since 1999 in Virginia, has very best of what human compassion adult counterparts to combat terror- begun its national expansion. This has to offer. An Albemarle County ism through good citizenship. In phase in the program’s growth has middle school participating in the many ways, our nation has done just focused our attention this year not Youth Leadership Initiative provided a that. We have witnessed uncommon only on Virginia but also on New Jer- particularly moving example. Touched generosity and sacrifice, but we must 5 sey, the only other state electing a by the devastation in New York and continue to meet the challenge by governor in November. Working with saddened by news that one of their more actively engaging in our civic schools and officials in the Garden teachers had lost her sister in Tower duties. State, where the largest single act of One, the YLI students at Burley Mid- Much has changed since September terrorism in history hit very close to dle School felt compelled to act. They 11. We here at the Center have adjust- home, has poignantly brought into quickly established a fundraising drive ed the timing and tone of our activi- context the lasting scars of this in their school to benefit the New ties in response to this national crisis. assault. York City service men and women One thing that has not changed, One group of students in Newark’s whose valor and sacrifice inspired our though, is our resolve to continually Camden Middle School literally nation. foster political education and partici- Fall

watched from a window in their class- They began with what they thought pation. If anything, our passion for ı room as the second plane flew into was an ambitious goal of raising $100 American democracy has grown 2001 the World Trade Center. Their teacher in their school. They solicited their stronger and more resolute. • YLI Expands Program Nationally in 2001

Barnes’ book is also used in the Shortly, YLI will bolster its YLI civics mentoring program, national efforts to share resources Democracy Corps. Designed to by attending the National Council teach elementary school students of Social Studies Teachers (NCSST) about patriotism and tolerance, the conference, from November 16-18, program builds leadership skills in 2001 in Washington, D.C. YLI is not middle school students as they only an exhibitor at the conference, CONTINUING ITS EFFORTS mentor to their younger counter- but will present a one-hour work- TO engage students in the political parts. Projects will vary based on the shop to interested teachers, launch- process, the Youth Leadership needs students identify in their ing the CD-ROM game, A More Initiative (YLI) at the Center for community, though common exam- Perfect Union. “This game is an Governmental Studies is actively ples include literacy programs cou- excellent learning tool that allows pursuing a national expansion of pled with related activities in the students to sculpt every aspect of a the program. This summer YLI hit arts. Featured books include The Senate campaign, thereby gaining a the road, traveling to the National Raccoon We Love by Senator Eugene better understanding of the entire Education Association’s (NEA) McCarthy and Woodie Guthrie’s political process,” said Stokes. annual conference. There YLI was book, This Land is Your Land. The online mock election of 2000 launched as a national initiative to YLI staff also traveled to Little met with huge success in Virginia, over 15,000 teachers from around Rock, Arkansas this summer to with over 60,000 students from 300 the country. The on-site response attend the National Association of of Virginia’s middle and high was overwhelmingly positive. Secretaries of State (NASS) confer- schools participating. Building on The NEA conference was also an ence. There they met with secretaries this success and in anticipation of opportunity to unveil the new part- of state who are participants in a the November gubernatorial elec- nership between YLI and children’s new millennium task force aimed to tions in Virginia and New Jersey, author Cheryl Shaw Barnes. Barnes research and explore the causes schools in both states will partici- is the author of a number of chil- behind low voter turnout among pate in mock elections for governor dren’s books aimed to educate young citizens. The conference via the Internet. The “polls” will young students about government. focused on a discussion of the ways remain open from October 22 to She was present at the conference to and means to draw this vital seg- November 1, after which time elec- spotlight and sign the book entitled ment of the population into the tion results can be found by logging House Mouse, Senate Mouse. The part- political process. on to www.youthleadership.net. nership between YLI and Barnes This is the first time schools outside enabled civics teachers of Virginia will join YLI in to receive a complimen- a mock election, a direct 6 tary copy of the book, result of successfully mar- one that contained infor- keting the program at vari- mation about YLI’s ous conferences through- annual activities and out the summer. how schools can become In addition to voting in involved. Director of the election, students and Instruction Angela teachers in Virginia submit- Stokes commented, ted over 350 questions for “These books provide a the CGS-sponsored guber- whimsical introduction natorial debate on October to the foundations of 10. This enabled Virginia

2001 government, founda- students to make known ı tions YLI will continue the topics that are of con- Woodrow Mouse and two YLI students say “Cheese!”

Fall to build upon.” cern to them, and perhaps sheds light on the concerns of stu- dents across the nation. Nearly fifty A MORE PERFECT UNION percent of the questions related to education, with the most emphasis placed on school safety and the One of the highlights of the year will effectiveness of Standards of Learning as a measure of students’ be the release of A More Perfect abilities. Students also expressed Union, an enhanced CD-ROM game interest in the candidates’ plans to address overcrowding and budget that capitalizes on the technology rev- dilemmas in school systems. Other olution and offers an unprecedented intriguing questions touched on air- line safety, drug prevention pro- means by which students can learn grams, the death penalty, and enforcement of motor vehicle laws. about American politics. The interac- Of those submitted, the two top tive game will allow the user to run a questions were selected and video- taped for presentation to the candi- Senate campaign in the fictitious dates during the debate. state of Franklin. The player will This summer the YLI staff created informative lesson plans for use by choose among the four potential candidates of various backgrounds and ideologies, and will schools across the nation. The pro- control every aspect of the campaign, including message development, campaign issues, gram of study is designed to teach students how polling, demograph- and polling strategies. ics, media tactics, and ethics impact campaign strategies and what role they play in modern elections. The goal of the curriculum is to encour- Following the mock election, YLI On a final note, in the wake of age students to act as informed vot- will turn from its study of cam- the September 11th national tragedy, ers. YLI Director Ken Stroupe com- paigns and elections to a focus on the Youth Leadership Initiative is mented, “These lesson plans provide governing and policymaking. Begun extremely proud to share with you flexibility in classroom instruction as a pilot project last year, the e- the compassionate efforts of one and serve to further student interest Congress deepens students’ under- Democracy Corps Team from Burley in government and the political standing of the legislative process Middle School in Charlottesville, arena.” and challenges them to solve prob- Virginia. In the days following the YLI is not only expanding into lems that real congressional leaders tragedy, this team of students estab- other states, but also looking to con- face when attempting to pass legis- lished a disaster relief fund to aid tinually improve and grow within lation. YLI e-Congress will trans- New York service men and women. the commonwealth of Virginia. YLI form students from passive Within two weeks, they raised over 7 is examining ways to bridge the digi- observers to the role of a U.S. $4,000 from classmates, family, tal divide in an effort to bring the Congressperson who must research friends, and the community. Stokes program’s software into schools and draft innovative legislation, commented, “In the midst of this with limited technological debate its merits through YLI con- tragedy, we’re pleased that some of resources. Two schools with limited gressional sub-committees, and our youngest citizens are finding Internet capabilities will receive determine its future through con- ways to contribute.” This completely assistance this year. YLI, along with sensus building activities and a final student-initiated effort exhibits the the election software company, Tru- vote with a YLI electronic ballot. civic responsibility and leadership Vote, has arranged to send “touch- The new YLI e-Congress will be fostered by YLI. The Center for screen” equipment to these schools, made available to schools through- Governmental Studies commends Fall

providing a means for students to out the nation in spring of 2002. these students for their admirable ı vote in the mock election without For more information, please see actions. • 2001 using the Internet. www.youthleadership.net. Center Examines the Presidential Selection Process

AFTER THE RESOUNDING entire country searches for guidance SUCCESS of the 2000 National on how to improve the fairness and Symposium on Character in Politics, integrity of the balloting process. At the Center for Governmental Studies this year’s symposium, the Center felt confident in confronting one of stepped outside the beltway for a the most pressing issues facing new perspective. The series focused political America today: how the on the various elements of this elects its president. For quadrennial political phenomenon, Now more than ever, every state thirty-six days last fall the media, from the nomination process to the the government, and the citizenry administration of elections and the scrutinized the chaos of the Florida Electoral College. must look closely at their individual vote. Election 2000 unfolded in the The symposium began on state and federal courts as well as in February 20 with a presentation by the news media. Although the former presidential candidate Steve election systems as the entire Center had been planning a discus- Forbes. Forbes said that “for all its sion about the presidential selection faults, the American system is the country searches for guidance on process prior to last November’s best in the world, in no other coun- election, the pandemonium of the try do citizens have the influence contest between George W. Bush that they do in this country.” The how to improve the fairness and and served to underscore two main suggestions Forbes had the urgency and importance of this for improving the electoral process integrity of the balloting process. symposium. Now more than ever, were to spread out primaries over a every state must look closely at their greater period of time and to allow individual election systems as the individuals to be able to contribute as much money to campaigns as they wish. Regarding individual donations to campaigns, Forbes added they should be allowed, “as long as there is full and complete disclosure…if candidates look like they’re selling their souls to a few, they’ll pay the political price.” Second in the symposium series was a speech by former senator and 8 presidential candidate Eugene McCarthy. McCarthy discussed many of his ideas for improving the American election process. McCarthy criticized the current Electoral College by saying, “The Electoral College is a good idea but has been corrupted over the cen- turies, principally by Republicans and Democrats.” He suggested Steve Forbes launched replacing the current system of presidential bids in

2001 states awarding electoral votes to the ı 1996 and 2000. candidate that wins the popular

Fall vote to a district system that would give electoral votes to the winning entitled “How We Vote,” took place candidates within each district. in Jefferson Hall and included legal The first panel of the symposium advisors to both 2000 presidential was entitled “The Presidential candidates. Among the participants Nominating Process” and took place were Ronald Klain, Al Gore’s legal on March 7 in the Rotunda Dome advisor; George Terwilliger, head of Room. This panel included the Bush legal team; Trevor Potter, representatives from the media and former chairman and commissioner from both major political parties, of the Federal Elections including Tom Sansonetti of the Commission and John McCain’s RNC; Craig Smith, who served as Al legal advisor; Robert Montjoy, of Virginia professor James Ceaser. Gore’s campaign manager; Vaughn professor of political science at The panel included former Ververs from The Hotline; and Jill Auburn University; and Doug Lewis, Congressman and 1980 independ- Lawrence from USA Today. CGS executive director of the Election ent presidential candidate John Director Larry Sabato also joined Center. Despite their differing Anderson; Darrell West, senior pro- the discussion, and the experts opinions on many aspects of the fessor of political science and public analyzed different plans that would election, all of these election experts policy at Brown University; Chuck potentially improve the process by agreed that the major problem in Todd, editor of The Hotline; and which candidates are selected to the 2000 election was the lack of William Mayer, associate professor receive their party’s nomination. uniform recount standards and of political science at Northwestern One of the major issues discussed procedures in Florida. Lewis University. All of the panelists was how to relieve frontloading, or claimed, “In Florida, we had agreed there were certainly prob- the tendency for states to set their absolute chaos, and that should not lems associated with the Electoral primary or caucus dates earlier and be allowed to happen again College, but only John Anderson earlier in the year and therefore anywhere in America.” Sabato supported a complete dismantling attempt to increase their overall closed the panel by remarking, of the institution. Anderson said, importance in the selection process. “There is no perfect election, but we “The Electoral College was undemo- Several reform plans were offered, can do better.” cratic to begin with and is even and the relative merits and On March 26, the third panel of more undemocratic today.” The rest downfalls were disputed by the the symposium, “The Electoral of the panel argued that while the energetic panel. College,” was convened by the Electoral College may not be the On March 20, the second panel, Center and moderated by University ideal way to set up a presidential

9 Fall ı 2001

On March 20, members of the “How We Vote” panel discuss recount standards. election system in the modern polit- Court ruling deciding the results of ical era, the Electoral College does the 2000 election was unacceptable provide for stability, force candi- and remarked, “No constitutional dates to build national coalitions, scholar could defend that decision. I and will likely survive calls for large- certainly hope Congress creates a scale reform in light of the 2000 commission and task force to election. improve the process and the tech- Former presidential candidate nology. Nobody was happy that it Michael Dukakis concluded the happened.” Dukakis felt that the symposium with remarks on April 5 Supreme Court ruling violated the in the Chemistry Auditorium at the Tenth amendment, which supposed- University of Virginia. Dukakis dis- ly would have left the issue up to cussed his reactions to Election the state of Florida. He also agreed 2000 and his own involvement in with some of the earlier symposium the 1988 presidential election. He panelists that the Electoral College told the audience of students, schol- should be abolished. Nearly 500 ars, and community members that students gathered to hear Dukakis’ despite his numerous experiences in entertaining and enlightening pres- politics he was, “still trying to figure entation and helped to bring the out how and why” he lost to George 2001 National Symposium Series to Bush in the 1988 election. With a successful close. regard to both his own experiences The Center is preparing a formal and Election 2000, Dukakis claimed report on the proceedings and that running for president, “is the recommendations of the National Dukakis: toughest thing anybody in politics Symposium participants, which Running for President “is the can do. It’s in a class by itself.” will be released in December of toughest thing anybody in politics Dukakis felt that the Supreme this year. • can do. It’s in a class by itself.”

PROFILE Melissa Northern DIRECTOR OF PROGRAMS MELISSA Bush, former White House NORTHERN continues to bring energy and expertise Press Secretary Mike McCurry, to the Center for Governmental Studies. Currently in Steve Forbes, and Judge Kenneth 10 her third year with the Center, Melissa served as the Starr. Event Coordinator and Intern Supervisor before being Melissa also arranged debates for named Director of Programs in July 2000. both the 2000 Virginia Senate and 2001 Virginia guber- Melissa earned her B.A. in Government and Foreign natorial races. She continually improves the CGS intern Affairs from the University of Virginia in 1999. Prior to program, selecting top students from the University of joining the Center, she worked for Congressman Frank Virginia and providing them with valuable experience Wolf on Capitol Hill and on his successful reelection working with the Center’s many programs. campaign in 1998. “Melissa is a tireless worker and an integral part of During her tenure with the Center, Melissa has coor- the Center. Our numerous programs have thrived dinated major public forums for prominent political under her direction and leadership,” said CGS Director figures, including former governor and presidential Larry Sabato.

2001 candidate Mike Dukakis, former First Lady Barbara ı Fall OVERTIME! Delves Into 2000 Presidential Election

THE UNPRECEDENTED EVENTS of exit poll results and creating a brand the presidential election of 2000 new “Political Map of the United were the impetus for Larry J. Sabato’s States” in the process. newly released book, Overtime! The Diana Owen, political scientist at Election 2000 Thriller, published by , examines the Longman Publishers. Sabato calls the news media’s dismal performance in 2000 election, “one of the most the election night debacle and exciting and tumultuous elections in explores the implications of the American political history.” Overtime! repeated mistaken calls. chronicles the entire election, from Ronald Klain and Jeremy Bash, the tumultuous primary season to key legal advisors for Gore- the crucial fall campaign to the Lieberman 2000, retell the “labor of chaotic aftermath of the Florida fall- Sisyphus” that the Gore team faced out. Overtime! analyzes the 2000 during the Florida recounts, includ- election in new and exciting ways, ing answers to questions about and offers tantalizing accounts of key Gore’s strategy. events from true political insiders. George Terwilliger, a lead Bush Sabato’s fellow contributors to legal counsel, gives a detailed Overtime! include perceptive political account of the post-election crisis analysts, journalists and practitioners from the perspective of the Bush who closely followed or were directly camp, including analysis on the legal involved in the campaign. Through proceedings, from Florida County the combined work of the diverse Courts to the United States Supreme nationally throughout the following contributors, Overtime! gives a star- Court. weeks. Book collaborator Joshua tlingly non-partisan and all-encom- Political journalist Jake Tapper of Scott, from the Center for passing view of the events and reper- Salon.com and CNN revisits and Governmental Studies, remarked, “In cussions of the 2000 election that comments on the reaction to his writing Overtime!, we have brought mirrors the almost perfect duality of book about the 2000 election, Down together some of America’s top polit- the election itself. Tom Fiedler, the and Dirty. National political analyst ical journalists and insiders to pro- new executive editor of the Miami Rhodes Cook explores the reasons duce a book that is truly a must-read Herald, contributes a chapter on the for the tightness of the race, from for anyone interested in this fascinat- new and decisively important politi- both the angle of the candidates and ing election.” cal landscape of Florida. Chuck from the changing dynamic of the Fans of political writing can expect Babington, senior correspondent for American public. more political books from the Center washingtonpost.com, who traveled The Center for Governmental for Governmental Studies in the 11 with Bush and Gore during the gen- Studies hosted a premier book future. Sabato said he “hopes to put eral election campaign, writes on the release at the National Press Club in a new book out every two years deal- presidential debates and offers new Washington, D.C. on August 13th, ing with state and national elec- details on the infamous Bush RATS 2001. Sabato hailed Overtime! as tions.” The 2002 midterm election ad. Tim Burger of the New York Daily showing both the “critical successes and the 2004 presidential election News gives never before reported and substantial failures in our mod- are the next focus in this series. The details on the incident that may well ern political system.” Over fifty peo- Center is also currently working on have cost Bush the popular vote — ple were in attendance for the finding contributors for a new book the last-minute DUI charge. release, including George Terwilliger, series entitled American Political Larry Sabato and Joshua Scott, Chuck Babington, Tim Burger and Challenges, which will be published Fall

both of the Center for Governmental Diana Owen who discussed the con- by Rowman & Littlefield. ı Studies, bring a well rounded per- tent of their chapters. The event was Copies of Overtime! are currently 2001 spective to the text, breaking down covered by C-SPAN and broadcast available at www.goodpolitics.org. • Charles S. Robb Governors Conference

with his election to governor in Robb’s success was that he brought 1981 (ending a 12-year Republican together moderate suburban voters lock on the governorship in the and black voters, asserting the 1970s). Despite having a very popu- Democrats’ role as the progressive lar Republican in the White House, party for race relations. In addition, Robb and his Democratic running Robb was able to garner support mates swept the ticket, in what from some of the conservative for- Robb campaign manager David mer Democrats who had helped Doak called a “double realignment” defeat liberal Henry Howell just of the Democratic party. four years earlier. ALAN DIAMONSTEIN, A Thursday night, accompanied by LONGTIME DEMOCRATIC Changing of the Guard his wife and youngest daughter DELEGATE from Newport News The conference began with Lynda Jennifer, Robb was honored at a and close friend of , Johnson Robb recounting experi- reception and dinner in the Dome described the former governor and ences of her years as Virginia’s First Room of Thomas Jefferson’s senator as a “genuine fiscal conser- Lady. Mrs. Robb discussed her role Rotunda. Following welcoming vative who was so tight, he carried as a mother, wife, and active cam- remarks by Robb’s attorney general his own luggage rather than pay paigner, and reflected on her current and gubernatorial successor Gerald tips.” This was just one of the many life outside of the limelight of poli- Baliles, and a moving introduction anecdotes and memories shared by tics after nearly three decades of by his former speechwriter Dr. friends, family, and colleagues dur- service. The first panel on Thursday Charles Sydnor, Robb delivered a ing the Charles S. Robb Governors set the scene for Robb’s emergence first-rate keynote address. He dis- Conference, held July 19th and 20th by describing the realignment of the cussed, among other things, dis- at the Boar’s Head Inn in Democratic Party of Virginia from parate views of fiscal conservatism. Charlottesville. Sponsored by the the domination of the conservative Robb explained there are tax cutters, Center for Governmental Studies Byrd Organization to the more who don’t consider the repercus- and the Weldon Cooper Center for moderate party we know today. The sions of cutting taxes, and there are Public Service, the Robb Conference panel featured former Senator budget balancers, who Robb said, built on the successes of previous Hunter Andrews, former Delegate “make tough choices to keep spend- conferences that examined the Alan Diamonstein, former director ing and tax revenues in balance.” administrations and legacies of gov- of the Republican Party of Virginia ernors Mills Godwin, Linwood Jeff Gregson, and journalists Margie Democratic Decade Holton, and John N. Dalton. Fisher and Bob Gibson, as well as The second day began with the Robb, whose political career Center for Governmental Studies “Robb Administration in 12 began when he was elected director Larry Sabato. This panel Retrospect,” a panel highlighting the Lieutenant Governor in 1977 with was followed by a discussion enti- challenges and accomplishments of no previous political experience, tled “Election ’81—Changing of the Robb’s term. The panel featured first discovered the media spotlight Guard,” which detailed Robb’s cam- Betty Diener, Ben Dendy, Frank through his marriage to President paign against Republican Marshall White, and David McCloud, all for- Lyndon Johnson’s daughter, Lynda Coleman. Doak, former Republican mer Robb staff members. They were Byrd Johnson. This association with gubernatorial candidate Wyatt joined by former Republican President Johnson undoubtedly Durrette, Delegate Richard Cranwell, Senator Ray Garland and journalist helped Governor Robb begin his journalist Margaret Edds, former Jeff Schapiro. The staff members political career, but as this confer- staffer Laurie Naismith and deputy shared interesting stories and fond ence revealed, Chuck Robb was an campaign manager Tim Ridley out- memories, and they discussed

2001 outstanding politician in his own lined Robb’s campaign strategy and Robb’s relationship with the ı right. He initiated Virginia’s discussed key events that helped General Assembly. They also dis-

Fall “Democratic Decade” of the 1980s propel him to victory. One key to cussed the trials and tribulations of a governorship that saw numerous Democrats, includ- problems associated with the prison ing the election of system, including the largest break- America’s first black out of death row inmates in Virginia lieutenant governor history. There were also several tri- and later governor, umphs that were discussed in the Douglas Wilder. panel, such as pay raises for teach- Lehner, who served ers, an impressive fiscal record, and as Robb’s Chief of numerous appointments of women Staff in the Senate, and minorities to key positions. described Robb as One of the appointments Robb the “original cen- made was Judge John Charles trist” and spoke Thomas, who was the first black about Robb’s post- member of the Virginia Supreme gubernatorial career, Charles Robb, with wife Lynda Johnson Robb, Court. In the final panel, “The Robb which included two served as Virginia’s governor from 1982 to 1986. Legacy - The Democratic Decade,” terms in the United Thomas explained that the appoint- States Senate. ment of women and minorities were Robb and other conference partic- transcripts of the conference are an important part of Robb’s legacy. ipants will appear in a documentary available on the Center’s website, Thomas was joined by journalists entitled “No Higher Honor,” pro- www.goodpolitics.org. Mike Hardy and G.C. Morse, former duced in conjunction with the On July 18 and 19, 2002, the staff members Tom Lehner and Center for Governmental Studies by Center will host the 5th Annual Stuart Connock, and Republican Central Virginia’s Community Idea Governors Conference at the Boar’s Delegate Vince Callahan. These pan- Station WCVE-TV23 Richmond and Head Inn, which will focus on the elists discussed the impact Robb WHTJ-TV41 Charlottesville. The doc- administration of Gerald L. Baliles, would have on the “Democratic umentary, covering Robb’s political who governed Virginia from 1986 to Decade,” as his term was followed career and legacy, will be broadcast 1990. • by two consecutive sweeps by the in the spring of 2002. In addition,

PROFILE Kim Tobin

THE CENTER FOR GOVERNMENTAL STUDIES University of Virginia’s School is pleased to welcome Kim Tobin as the new Associate of Law, reside here in 13 Director of Development. Charlottesville. They are happy to A native of Virginia, Ms. Tobin graduated from the be back in Virginia and look forward College of William & Mary in 1997 with a bachelor’s to exploring Charlottesville and the sur- degree in International Relations. After graduation she rounding area. spent two years in Washington, D.C. working on and As the Associate Director of Development, Ms. Tobin off Capitol Hill in government and public relations. will be responsible for event planning and fundraising. Ms. Tobin joins us after two years in China. While “Kim said in an interview that she thought that the living in Beijing she led community relations efforts for Center’s work was ‘not only interesting but important’. a private international school and co-founded a bilin- That’s the kind of spirit we need, and we’re happy to gual arts and entertainment magazine. She also enjoyed have her on our team,” said Doug Trout, Director of Fall

the opportunity to travel extensively in East Asia. Development. ı Ms. Tobin and her husband, a student at the 2001 CGS Welcomes Senator Evan Bayh

ON APRIL 17, 2001, the Center for Governmental Studies welcomed U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D-Indiana) on Grounds to address 500 students in Larry J. Sabato’s “Introduction to American Government” class. Sabato believes that Bayh, a 1981 graduate of the University of Virginia’s School of Law, could become a strong contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in the near future. In fact, during the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore entertained the possibility of choos- ing Bayh for his running mate. In his opening remarks, Sabato specu- Senator Bayh, a UVa graduate, has been frequently mentioned lated that Bayh’s presence on the as a future presidential candidate. ticket would have bolstered chances for a Gore victory. of senators who seek to offer a third ed, which is undermining a lot of When asked whether he intends way approach on traditionally parti- the [President’s] good will.” In par- to run, however, the 46-year-old sen- san issues. ticular, Bayh doubted the effective- ator hesitated. “It’s a little prema- Speaking to Sabato’s class, the ness of Bush’s tax cuts, as well as his ture,” he said. However, Bayh did moderate Democrat was quick to proposed national missile defense say that he would declare his candi- emphasize his belief in practical system. He speculated that these dacy “after the midterm elections” in politics. “Being a good public offi- programs could deprive public edu- 2002, should he decide to seek the cial is the art of the possible,” he cation of needed funds. nomination. In June 2001, however, said. “It’s what you do, what you Voter apathy also figured promi- Bayh announced that he would not accomplish…. That’s what ultimate- nently in Bayh’s remarks. Citing the seek the presidential nomination in ly matters. It’s not just a political sci- fact that only half of eligible voters 2004, but speculation will undoubt- ence discussion.” He recommended participated in the 2000 elections, edly continue about a White House that both parties abandon ideologi- he said, “We’re no longer a represen- bid in the coming years. cal clashes in favor of bipartisan, tative democracy in the model Indiana elected Bayh to the U.S. pragmatic policy-making, and cited Jefferson talked about. We don’t Senate in 1998, after he served for public education as one institution have a compelling vision for the 14 two terms as governor of the pre- that can benefit from middle-of-the- process of self-governance.” Bayh dominantly Republican state. road legislation. Although Bayh espouses the McCain-Feingold cam- Although he is the Senate’s sixth opposes vouchers, he and paign finance reform bill, and youngest member, Bayh has already Lieberman have co-sponsored legis- would support an amendment to established himself as a crucial play- lation that would expand public- abolish the electoral college, though er in the national Democratic Party. school choice and help parents pay he believes the latter reform would In February he became chairman of for tutoring. be unlikely to succeed in passing. the centrist Democratic Leadership Bayh also offered his thoughts Continuing on the topic of popu- Council, a position formerly held in about George W. Bush’s fledgling lar participation, Bayh encouraged turn by former President Bill presidency. Conceding that Bush his young audience to get involved Clinton and Senator “got off to a good start,” he warned in politics. “Being a good public

2001 (D-Connecticut). Bayh is also a that “now we’ve gotten down to official… is what ultimately matters. ı leader of the New Democrat substance, and the substance is We should never abandon our val-

Fall Coalition, a new and growing group much more ideological than expect- ues to hold public office.” • STAFF

Professor Larry J. Sabato DIRECTOR CGS SUPPORTERS Alex Theodoridis CHIEF OF STAFF CHARTER Melissa Northern American National Bank and Mr. James M. Thomson DIRECTOR OF PROGRAMS Trust UST Public Affairs Joshua Scott California Teachers Association Mr. Alan M. Voorhees DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS Dominion Resources Group/VA Waste Management of Doug Trout DIRECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT Power Richmond Inc. ESG Companies Kimberly Tobin ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF Mr. Haywood Fralin LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT Mr. and Mrs. William H. Alliance for Better Campaigns Matt Smyth Goodwin America On-Line SPECIAL ASSISTANT Mr. and Mrs. T.E. Beck TO THE DIRECTOR Mr. and Mrs. Bruce C. Gottwald The Haney Company The Bond Market Association Professor James R. Sofka RESIDENT SCHOLAR Mr. Randolph G. Flood CSX Corporation Markel Corporation Stevens Reed Curcio Company Danelia Robinson OFFICE MANAGER Ms. Sally Marquigny Davenport and Company LLC Ken Stroupe Mr. Ivor Massey Mr. and Mrs. Lawrence Eicher DIRECTOR, McGuireWoods Consulting FHC Health Systems YOUTH LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE Mr. and Mrs. James B. Murray, Jr. First Union National Bank Angela Stokes Norfolk Southern Corporation The Fund for American Studies DIRECTOR OF INSTRUCTION, YOUTH LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE Mr. Richard Norman Mr. Loren Hershey Tricia Burry The Richard S. Reynolds Hunton and Williams OUTREACH COORDINATOR, Foundation Lockheed Martin YOUTH LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE Mrs. Anna Thompson National Coil Coaters Association Interns, Fall Semester 2001 EXECUTIVE NVR, Incorporated Fatima Al-Dahwi Pepsi Ian Marcus Amelkin Bell Atlantic Corporation Margaret Ashby Capital One The Phillip Morris Companies Elise Babbitt Ms. Patricia Cornwell R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company Adam Blumenkrantz The Ridley Group Tamsin Chance John D. Evans Foundation Catherine Giambastiani Exxon/Mobil Oil Corporation Robert E. Pogue and Associates Brett Gibson Mr. and Mrs. William H. Sallie Mae Rakesh Gopalan 15 Mr. Dwight Schar Jordan Gottfried Fishback, Jr. Charlie Hale General Motors The State Affairs Company Preston Lloyd Mr. and Mrs. John T. Hazel, Jr. Mr. and Mrs. Gilbert J. Sullivan Cason Moore Trigon Blue Cross Blue Shield Moira O’Brian Mr. William A. Hazel, Jr. Blake Points Oracle Corporation Value Options Peter Sheeran Praxis Foundation The Vectre Corporation Dwayne Swanson Virginia State AFL-CIO Cagri Tanyol Mr. and Mrs. E. Claiborne Zach Terwilliger Robbins Virginia Waste Industries Paige Yurachek Mr. Ralph Rocks Association Christopher Zirpoli Fall The UPS Foundation WEST Group ı 2001 The University of Virginia’s Center for Governmental Studies PLEDGE CARD

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