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Download Issue WQCovWin11_Sub.Final 1/5/11 1:35 PM Page 2 Th What Is A Tree Worth? WILSON A Glimmer in the Balkans Rethinking the The WILSON QUARTERLY SURVEYING THE WORLD OF IDEAS QUARTERLY Great Recession by Robert J. Samuelson Indonesia’s Moment CRIME IN AMERICA SevenThe Million How to Shrink America’s Criminal Population Wit 2011Vl35N1 WINTER 2011 $7.95 Covers 2-4 1/5/11 1:38 PM Page 2 Washington’s U Street Policing Democracy A Biography Overcoming Obstacles to Citizen Blair A. Ruble Security in Latin America “[Ruble] weaves the historical tale of Mark Ungar the area with profi les of its major per- “His vision is comprehensive, extend- sonalities . After all, it’s a lot more ing from policing to the judiciary to than a place to get a half-smoke.” the prison system.”—Anthony W. —Washington Business Journal Pereira, Tulane University $29.95 hardcover $30.00 paperback Orange Revolution Urban Diversity and Aftermath Space, Culture, and Inclusive Mobilization, Apathy, and Pluralism in Cities Worldwide the State in Ukraine edited by Caroline Wanjiku Kihato, edited by Paul D’Anieri Mejgan Massoumi, Blair A. Ruble, “Th is book takes a step back from Pep Subirós, and Allison M. Garland the immediate events and asks some “It captures the global problem of the important and interesting questions ever-increasing size of cities and hence about the state of Ukrainian democ- their sustainability.” racy and society today.” —Caroline B. Brettell, Southern —Paul Kubicek, Oakland University Methodist University $60.00 hardcover $65.00 hardcover The Woodrow Wilson Center Press and The Johns Hopkins University Press 1-800-537-5487 • press.jhu.edu • 20% discount to Wilson Center Associates WQ1 1/5/11 1:05 PM Page 1 6 Ways to Win an Argument Taught by One of America’s Great Professors easoning, tested by doubt, is argu- We’ve been doing this since 1990, pro- mentation. We do it, hear it, and ducing more than 3,000 hours of material R judge it every day. We do it in our in modern and ancient history, philosophy, own minds, and we do it with others. literature, fine arts, the sciences, and math- What is effective reasoning? And how ematics for intelligent, engaged, adult life- can it be done persuasively? These questions long learners. If a course is ever less than have been asked for thousands of years, yet completely satisfying, you may exchange it some of the best thinking on reasoning and for another, or we will refund your money promptly. argumentation is very new and is a strong © Fotosearch. break from the past. Lecture Titles Argumentation: The Study of Effective t "SHVNFOUBUJPO JT OPU NFSF RVBSSFMJOH 1. Introducing Argumentation Reasoning, 2nd Edition, is a course in argu- It is the study of human communication and Rhetoric ment and in reasoning. This course teaches that seeks to persuade through reasoned 2. Underlying Assumptions how to reason and how to persuade others judgment. It is a deeply social and of Argumentation that what you think is right. And it teaches cooperative practice. (Although there 3. Formal and Informal Argumentation how to judge and answer the arguments of are times when winning an argument 4. History of Argumentation Studies others—and how they will judge yours. rather than finding the truth is prized, 5. Argument Analysis and Diagramming that is not why most of us exchange 6. Complex Structures of Argument Dr. David Zarefsky’s lectures are filled arguments.) 7. Case Construction-Requirements with examples of controversies, but his per- and Options spective takes us beyond individual disputes The course does not require any special 8. Stasis—The Heart of the Controversy so we can see the structure of all disputes. knowledge or training in logic or rhetoric. 9. Attack and Defense I This perspective orients us within any argu- About Your Professor 10. Attack and Defense II ment, so argumentation can be seen clearly as Pro fessor David Zarefsky is the Owen 11. Language and Style in Argument an exchange, and not just a flurry of words. L. Coon Pro fessor of Argumentation and 12. Evaluating Evidence What You’ll Learn De bate and Professor of Communication 13. Reasoning from Parts to Whole The lectures reveal several striking facts Studies North western University, where he 14. Reasoning with Comparisons that can make argumentation accessible and has taught for more than 30 years. The 15. Establishing Correlations familiar to you. Student Government of Northwestern has 16. Moving from Cause to Effect elected Professor Zarefsky to the Honor Roll 17. Commonplaces and Arguments t 5IF UPPMT PG GPSNBM MPHJD FTTFOUJBM for Teaching 13 times. from Form for mathematics and programming 18. Hybrid Patterns of Inference About The Great Courses computers, are inadequate to decide 19. Validity and Fallacies I most controversial issues. For example, We review hundreds of top-rated profes- 20. Validity and Fallacies II the ideal of deductive reasoning, the syl- sors from America’s best colleges and uni- 21. Arguments between Friends logism (“All men are mortal. Socrates is versities each year. From this extraordinary 22. Arguments among Experts a man. Therefore, Socrates is mortal.”) group we choose only those rated highest by 23. Public Argument and Democratic Life is rarely used in real argument largely panels of our customers. Fewer than 10% of 24. The Ends of Argumentation because it is useless. these world-class scholar-teachers are selected t "SHVNFOUTGBMMJOUPBIBOEGVMPGEJTUJODU to make The Great Courses®. categories—and the same issues are at stake each time one of these distinctive SAVE UP TO $185 ! patterns occurs. OFFER GOOD UNTIL APRIL 15, 2011 t 5IFSF BSF UISFF LJOET PG FWJEFODF UIBU can be advanced to prove an argument 1-800-832-2412 Special offer is available online at that something is true—and the same Fax: 703-378-3819 www.THEGREATCOURSES.com/7wq tests for truth can be applied to these Charge my credit card: types of evidence every time. n n n n 4840 Westfields Blvd., Suite 500 Chantilly, VA 20151-2299 About Our Sale Price Policy Priority Code 49736 Account Number Exp. Date Why is the sale price for this course so Please send me Argumentation: The Study of Effective Signature much lower than its standard price? Every Reasoning, 2nd Edition, which consists of 24 30-minute lectures plus Course Guidebooks. course we make goes on sale at least once a Name (please print) year. Producing large quantities of only the n DVD $69.95 (std. price $254.95) SAVE $185! Mailing Address sale courses keeps costs down and allows plus $10 shipping and handling us to pass the savings on to you. This n Audio CD $49.95 (std. price $179.95) SAVE $130! City/State/ZIP also enables us to fill your order immedi- plus $10 shipping and handling BUFMZ PG BMM PSEFST QMBDFE CZ QN n Check or Money Order Enclosed Phone (If we have questions regarding your order— required for international orders) eastern time ship that same day. Order before /PO640SEFST"EEJUJPOBMTIJQQJOHDIBSHFTBQQMZ n For more details, call us or visit the FAQ page on our website. FREE CATALOG. Please send me a free copy of April 15, 2011, to receive these savings. your current catalog (no purchase necessary). ** Virginia residents please add 5% sales tax. ***Indiana residents please add 7% sales tax. Special offer is available online at www.THEGREATCOURSES.com/7wq 0GGFS(PPE5ISPVHI"QSJM WQ2-3 1/5/11 1:08 PM Page 2 The WILSON QUARTERLY Winter 2011 volume xxxv, number 1 The Wilson Quarterly Published by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars FEATURES www.wilsonquarterly.com COVER STORY 26 Indonesia’s Moment 49 THE SEVEN MILLION By Robert Pringle | Indonesia seldom attracts How to Shrink America’s Criminal Population much attention unless it suffers a natural disaster or Seven million Americans are in prison or on some other upheaval, but what’s truly noteworthy is probation or parole. Crime is down, but state this Muslim-majority nation’s thriving democracy. prison budgets have ballooned. A new war on 34 What Is a Tree Worth? crime must focus on reducing repeat offenses By Jill Jonnes | Scientists have recently learned by ex-inmates and steering more young people how to put a price on the benefits delivered by away from crime. urban trees, with results that are rippling through Beyond the Prison Bubble | America’s cities. By Joan Petersilia The Bounty Hunter’s Pursuit of Justice | 42 A Glimmer in the Balkans By Alex Tabarrok By Martin Sletzinger | Before Afghanistan and The Economist’s Guide to Crime Busting | Iraq, there were the Balkans. After 20 years of By Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig American and European efforts, the hard work of nation-building continues. 16 Rethinking the Great Recession ON THE COVER: Photograph by David Sanders for The New York By Robert J. Samuelson | The roots of the Times, design by Michelle Furman. Inmates at the Arizona State Prison Complex–Phoenix wait to be placed in cells. recession are far deeper, and will have bigger The views expressed herein are not necessarily those of the Woodrow consequences, than most Americans realize. Wilson International Center for Scholars. 2 Wilson Quarterly ■ Winter 2011 WQ2-3 1/5/11 1:08 PM Page 3 DEPARTMENTS 4 EDITOR’S COMMENT 80 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 99 Not Quite Adults: Journals Galore, from Why 20-Somethings Are Choosing 6 LETTERS History of Science a Slower Path to Adulthood, and School for Slugs, from Cabinet Why It’s Good for Everyone. 8 AT THE CENTER By Richard Settersten and Brave New Worlds, from Nature Barbara E. Ray 13 FINDINGS 83 ARTS & LETTERS Reviewed by Michael C.
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