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Brettell, Southern —Paul Kubicek, Oakland University Methodist University $60.00 hardcover $65.00 hardcover The Woodrow Wilson Center Press and The Johns Hopkins University Press 1-800-537-5487 • press.jhu.edu • 20% discount to Wilson Center Associates WQ1 1/5/11 1:05 PM Page 1 6 Ways to Win an Argument Taught by One of America’s Great Professors easoning, tested by doubt, is argu- We’ve been doing this since 1990, pro- mentation. We do it, hear it, and ducing more than 3,000 hours of material R judge it every day. We do it in our in modern and ancient history, philosophy, own minds, and we do it with others. literature, fine arts, the sciences, and math- What is effective reasoning? And how ematics for intelligent, engaged, adult life- can it be done persuasively? These questions long learners. 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Please send me a free copy of April 15, 2011, to receive these savings. your current catalog (no purchase necessary). ** Virginia residents please add 5% sales tax. ***Indiana residents please add 7% sales tax. Special offer is available online at www.THEGREATCOURSES.com/7wq 0GGFS(PPE5ISPVHI"QSJM WQ2-3 1/5/11 1:08 PM Page 2 The WILSON QUARTERLY Winter 2011 volume xxxv, number 1 The Wilson Quarterly Published by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars FEATURES www.wilsonquarterly.com COVER STORY 26 Indonesia’s Moment 49 THE SEVEN MILLION By Robert Pringle | Indonesia seldom attracts How to Shrink America’s Criminal Population much attention unless it suffers a natural disaster or Seven million Americans are in prison or on some other upheaval, but what’s truly noteworthy is probation or parole. Crime is down, but state this Muslim-majority nation’s thriving democracy. prison budgets have ballooned. A new war on 34 What Is a Tree Worth? crime must focus on reducing repeat offenses By Jill Jonnes | Scientists have recently learned by ex-inmates and steering more young people how to put a price on the benefits delivered by away from crime. urban trees, with results that are rippling through Beyond the Prison Bubble | America’s cities. By Joan Petersilia The Bounty Hunter’s Pursuit of Justice | 42 A Glimmer in the Balkans By Alex Tabarrok By Martin Sletzinger | Before Afghanistan and The Economist’s Guide to Crime Busting | Iraq, there were the Balkans. After 20 years of By Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig American and European efforts, the hard work of nation-building continues. 16 Rethinking the Great Recession ON THE COVER: Photograph by David Sanders for The New York By Robert J. Samuelson | The roots of the Times, design by Michelle Furman. Inmates at the Arizona State Prison Complex–Phoenix wait to be placed in cells. recession are far deeper, and will have bigger The views expressed herein are not necessarily those of the Woodrow consequences, than most Americans realize. Wilson International Center for Scholars. 2 Wilson Quarterly ■ Winter 2011 WQ2-3 1/5/11 1:08 PM Page 3 DEPARTMENTS 4 EDITOR’S COMMENT 80 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 99 Not Quite Adults: Journals Galore, from Why 20-Somethings Are Choosing 6 LETTERS History of Science a Slower Path to Adulthood, and School for Slugs, from Cabinet Why It’s Good for Everyone. 8 AT THE CENTER By Richard Settersten and Brave New Worlds, from Nature Barbara E. Ray 13 FINDINGS 83 ARTS & LETTERS Reviewed by Michael C.