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An Analysis of the NSW Elections of 1988 and 1991 Occasional

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An Analysis of the NSW Elections of 1988 and 1991 Occasional NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Changing Boundaries, Changing Fortunes: an analysis of the NSW Elections of 1988 and 1991 by Antony Green Occasional Paper No 7 October 1998 NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Dr David Clune, Manager .......................... (02) 9230 2484 Dr Gareth Griffith, Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law ...................... (02) 9230 2356 Ms Honor Figgis, Research Officer, Law .............. (02) 9230 2768 Ms Rachel Simpson, Research Officer, Law ............ (02) 9230 3085 Mr Stewart Smith, Research Officer, Environment ....... (02) 9230 2798 Ms Marie Swain, Research Officer, Law/Social Issues .... (02) 9230 2003 Mr John Wilkinson, Research Officer, Economics ....... (02) 9230 2006 Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/gi/library/publicn.html The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with ABC-Television, and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since 1989. He also wrties regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony has prepared a number of publications for the Parliamentary Library on different aspects of New South Wales electoral politics. NSW Elections 1988/1991 CHANGING BOUNDARIES, CHANGING FORTUNES NEW SOUTH WALES ELECTIONS 1988/1991 CONTENTS Introduction.................................................................................. 1 Summary of 1986/87 Redistribution ................................................. 4 1988 Election Results Summary of Legislative Assembly Election ............................... 7 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division ....................12 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ................................31 Regional Summaries.............................................................38 By-elections 1988 - 1991 .....................................................42 Summary of Legislative Council Election..................................45 Summary of 1990/91 Redistribution ................................................47 1991 Election Results Summary of Legislative Assembly Election ..............................51 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division ....................56 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ................................74 Regional Summaries.............................................................81 By-elections 1991 - 1995 .....................................................85 Summary of Legislative Council Election..................................88 Referendum Result...............................................................90 1 NSW Elections 1988/1991 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MP + Sitting MP contesting a seat notionally held by another party .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations (blank) Non-Aligned Candidates ALP Labor Party AMP Australian Marijuana Party AT Aboriginal Team CEC Citizens Electoral Council CI Community Independents CRP Country Residents Party CTA Call to Australia (Fred Nile) Group DEM Australian Democrats DES Defence and Ex-Services Group EFF Independent Enterprise Freedom and Family EG Environment Group GRN The Greens GRY Grey Power HP Humanist Party IND Independents IWP Illawarra Workers Party LIB Liberal Party MBT Marie Bignold Team NAT National Party NDP Nuclear Disarmament Party NTI No Toxic Incinerator Group OTH Others SLL Socialist Labor League SPA Socialist Party of Australia NSW Elections 1988/1991 INTRODUCTION Analysis of the 1988 and 1991 New South Wales elections has to date been hindered by a lack of detailed statistical analysis of the results. This is unfortunate, as both elections produced historically significant outcomes. Given that New South Wales has often been called a ‘natural’ Labor state, the 1988 result was startling, the worst Labor performance, and best Coalition result, since the Lang era of the 1930s. The Labor Party suffered massive swings in its working class heartland, losing seats like Balmain, Newcastle and Swansea for the first time this century. There was a massive rejection of Labor in rural seats, mainly due to gun law and forest protection issues, and seven non-aligned Independents were elected to the Legislative Assembly. The 1991 election saw the re-election of the Greiner Coalition, but in the unexpected position of a lacking a clear parliamentary majority. Together with the government’s loss of The Entrance by-election following a Court of Disputed Returns decision, the finely balanced Parliament became critical to the course of the government. Politically, it lead to the so-called ‘Metherell affair’ which eventually forced the resignation of Premier Nick Greiner. Constitutionally, it also lead to the introduction of fixed four year term Parliaments, part of the agreement between the Coalition and non-aligned Independents. The lack of statistical analysis of the results has been because of the massive electoral redistributions that took place before both elections. Prior to the 1988 election, the size of the Legislative Assembly was increased from 99 to 109 electorates, reverting back to 99 electorates for the 1991 election. This publication provides, for the first time, full details of both elections, with all swings calculated compared to the previous election after taking into account the redistributions . Summary details of the 1986/87 and 1990/91 redistributions are also provided, calculated by re-assigning booth results from the previous election to the new boundaries. Further information on the political impact of the redistributions can be found in the NSW Parliamentary Library Current Issues Background Paper “NSW Elections 1984 to 1991: A Comparative Analysis” (No. 1994/2). More detail on the 1988 and 1991 Legislative Council elections can be found in “Electing the New South Wales Legislative Council 1978 to 1995: Past Results and Future Prospects” (No. 1995/2). A third publication, “NSW Elections 1995” (Background Paper 1995/4), sets out the results of the 1995 election in the same format as this publication. Explaining the tables For each Legislative Assembly electorate, full detail of primary and two-party preferred votes are provided. The format for the results are summarized below. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the previous election (adjusted for the new boundaries) from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. All votes which did not indicate a preference to the two remaining candidates are included in the total listed as Exhausted. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the votes 1 NSW Elections 1988/1991 remaining in the count, that is the formal votes minus the total exhausted votes. Two- candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the adjusted previous election results. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differ (eg Balmain in 1988), a ghost candidate appears, and three swing figures are shown. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results The 1988 election was the first where a full distribution of preferences was carried out in each electorate, producing a final two-candidate preferred vote. However, in 11 electorates in 1988, and 13 in 1991, the final count included an independent or minor party candidate. For these seats, two-party preferred estimates between Labor and the Coalition have been provided in the tables summarising the two-party preferred results. A full two-party count was not provided in 1984, so all re-calculations based on the 1986/87 redistribution use estimated two-party preferred results from 1984. By-Elections In re-calculating redistributions, all estimates are based upon results of the previous election. By-elections have been ignored, though a note has been made where the result of a by- election may have affected redistribution calculations. Details of all by-elections held between 1984 and 1988 are provided on pages 42-44, and by-elections between 1991 and 1995 on pages 85-87. Changes to Electoral Laws Before the 1991 election, there were two significant changes to electoral laws. The first was to allow party names to appear on the ballot paper. The second was to declare informal all votes cast using only a tick or a cross. This second measure, and confusion with instructions for marking the referendum ballot paper, was responsible for the enormous rise in informal voting at the 1991 election. Disclaimer All results are based on information provided by the NSW State Electoral Office. However, responsibility for all calculations and omissions is taken by the author. 2 NSW Elections 1988/1991 SUMMARY OF 1986-87 REDISTRIBUTION The following notes summarize
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