FIL U Secondhighway Project Public Disclosure Authorized Tunisia

ReportNo. 930-TUN e0 d y Appraisalof a FIL U SecondHighway Project Public Disclosure Authorized Tunisia

December 4, 1975 RegionalProjects Department Europe,Middle Eastand North Africa RegionalOffice Not for Public Use Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Document of the Worid Bank

This document hasa restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only In the performanceof their officiaiduties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS

(As of April 16, 1975)

Currency Unit = Dinar (D) Dl = US$ 20 5974 Dl,OO = US$ 2597.4 Dl,,OOO,OOO US$ 2,597,400 US$1 D 0.385

SYSTEMOF WOEIGHTSAND MEASURES: METRIC

Metric System British/US System

1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 kilometer (km) 2 = 0.62 miles (mi) 2 1 sq kilometer (km ) = 0386 sq miles (mi ) 1 liter (1) = 0.2200 Imperial gallons (Igal) = 0.2642 U.S. Gallons (gal) 1 metric ton (m ton) 25205 pounds

ACRONYMSAND ABBREVIATIONS

ADT - Average Daily Traffic BCEOM - Bureau Central de'Etudes pour les Equipement d'Outre-Mer CST - Commission Sectorielle des Transports DPC - Direction des Ponts et Chaussees ER - Economic Return GDP - Gross Domestic Product GNP - Gross National Product GP - Route de grands parcours MC - Route de moyennes communications MPW - Ministry of Public WJorks MTC - Ministry of Transport and Communications OPNT - Office des Ports Nationaux Tunisiens RVE - Route vicinale d'etat SCET - Societe Centrale pour l'Equipementdu Territoire SEM - Service d'Entretrien de Materiel SETEC - Societe d'Etudes Techniques et Economiques SGEE - Societe Generale d'Etude et d'Engineering SNCFT - Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer Tunisiens SOMATRA - Societe de Materiel et de Travaux SOTUETEC - Societe Tunisienne d'Etudes Techniques et Economiques STUDI - Societe Tunisienne d'Ingenierie UNDP - United Nations Development Programme

REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31 APPRAISAL OF

A SECOND HIGHWAYPROJECT

TUNISIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS ...... i

I. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

II. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ...... 1

A. Effects of Geography and Economic Growth on Transport ...... B. The Transport System ...... 2 C. Transport Policy, Planning, and Coordination .. 3 D. Previous Projects ...... 5

III. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR ...... 5

A. The Network ...... 5 B. Traffic . .5 C. Administration . .6 D. Planning and Engineering ...... 6 E. Financing ...... 7 F. Construction ...... 7 G. Maintenance.. 8 H., Training ...... 9

IV. THEPROJECT ...... 9

A. Objectives ...... 9 B. Description .. 10 C. Engineering .. il D. Cost Estimate .. il E. Financing . .12 F. Implementation .. 12 G. Disbursements ...... 13 H. Environmental Impact ...... 13

This report was prepared by Messrs. G. Ludwig (Engineer) and H. Beenhakker (Economist). TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) Page No.

V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ...... 13

A. Main Benefits and Beneficiaries...... 13 B. Economic Evaluation ...... 15

VI. RECOMMENDATIONS...... 16

TABLES

1. Rail Transport;Main Freight, 1961-74 2. Sea Transport, 1961-73 3. Air Transport, 1961-73 4. Actual and Planned Investmentsby Sector, 1962-1976 (millionsof Dinars, current prices) 5. Actual and Planned Investmentsby Mode, 1962-76 (current prices) 6. Highway Network, 1975 7. Vehicle Fleet and Road Traffic, 1961-73 8. Road Traffic Estimates 9. Design Characteristicsof Project Roads 10. Highway Expenditures,1966-75 l1. Cost Estimates for Highway ImprovementWorks 12. Cost Estimates for Consultants'Services and Summary Cost Estimate 13. Physical, Financial and Economic Data of Highway Improvement Works 14. Results of Sensitivity Analyses of Cost and Benefit Streams 15. Average Vehicle Operating Costs 16. Average Characteristics of Typical Vehicles

ANNEXES

A. Transport Regulations,1968 Transport Survey and Proposed Rural Roadt Program B. TransportationProjects Previously financed by the Bank C. Highway Improvements D. Price Escalation Factors for Project Elements E. ImplementationSchedule F. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements

CHART

15119 Organizationof the Ministry of Public Works and Highwray Administration

MAP

11734 Highway Network and TransportationSystem APPRAISAL.OF

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

TUNISIA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

i. The Government of Tunisia has asked the Bank to help finance the improvementof about 225 km of primary and secondaryhighways in the northern and central regions of the country, and consulting services.

ii. The highway improvementsconsist of bypasses of the towns of Sousse, El-Djem and Sfax on the primary route GP1 (total 44.5 km), and the improvement of about 180 km of two-lane roads on the primary routes GP5 (Mornaghia-Medjez- el-Bab), GP6 (Beja-Jendouba),GP8 (Tunis-Bizerte)and MC 27/28 (Hammamet- Korba) including the constructionof bypasses of the towns of Hammamet, Nabeul and Beni Khiar. The constiltingservices comprise assistance to update the 1968 Transport Survey and to prepare a rural roads program.

iii. The proposed loan amount would be US$28.0 million or 54% of the total project cost of US$52.3 million and would cover entirely the foreign exchange component.

iv. The Direction des Ponts et Chaussees in the Ministry of Public Works will be responsiblefor the execution of the constructionworks and preparation of the rural roads program while the Ministry of Transport and Communicationswill be responsible for the updating of the 1968 Trans- port Survey. Constructioncontracts on the basis of unit prices will be awarded after internationalcompetitive bidding in accordancewith the Bank's Guidelines for Procurement.

v. The project was appraised in March/April 1975. The beneficiaries of the project are primarily farmers and manufacturers,consumers and road transportpassengers.

vi. The project is economicallysound and of high priority. On the basis of savings in highway user costs, the improvementworks are expected to yield an overall economic return in excess of 33%. Sensitivity analyses testing the overall economic return gave returns of approximately 28% and 27% assuming a 25% cost overrun and 25% reduction of benefits, respectively.

vii. Based on expected economic lives of the roads or road sections to be improved, the project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$28.0 million for a term of 24 vears, including a four-year grace period.

APPRAISALOF

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

TUNISIA

I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Governmentof Tunisia has asked the Bank to help finance the improvementof about 225 km of highways in the northern and central regions. Feasibilitystudies and detailed engineeringfor the improvementswere financed under the First Highway Project carried out by the joint ventures of foreign and local consultantsBureau Central d'Etudes pour les Equipements d'Outre-Mer(BCEOM, France)/Societe Tuniîienne d'Ingenierie (STUDI), Renardet SAUTI (Italy) /SocieteGenerale d'Etudeset d'Engineering(SGEE), and Societe d'EtudesTechniques et Economiques(SETEC, France)/Societe Tunisienne d' Etudes Techniqueset Economiques(SOTUETEC). The project further includes the updatingby consultantsof a transportsurvey carried out by consultants (Italconsult)in 1967-68 (the 1968 TransportSurvey), financed by the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP),with the Bank as executingagency, and technicalassistance for the preparationof a rural roads program.

1.02 The total cost of the project is estimatedat US$52.3 million equi- valent with a foreignexchange componentof about US$28.0 million or 54%. The loan of US$28.0million will cover these foreign exchange costs.

1.03 This report is based on the economic and engineeringstudies carried out by the above consultants,on informationprovided by the Government and on the findingsof an appraisalmission consistingof Messrs. G. Ludwig (Engineer)and H. Beenhakker(Economist) which visited the country in March/ April 1975.

II. THE TRANSPORTSECTOR

A. Effects of Geography and Economic Growth on Transport

2.01 Tunisia, with an area of 164,000km 2 or about one-quarterthat of France, is bordered by the Mediterraneanto the north and east, Algeria to the west, and Libya to the southeast. Its estimatedpopulation of 5.7 million is increasingat about 2.4% per annum. Forty-fivepercent of the population lives in the four northeasterncoastal provincesof Tunis, Sousse, Sfax and Bizerte,where populationdensity approaches100 per km2, as opposed to fewer than 20 inhabitantsper km2 in the southwesterninterior. The south is characterizedby large areas of infertiledesert. - 2 -

2.02 Between 1962, the beginning of the first decade of planned development, and 1974 per capita Gross National Product (GNP) in constant (1966) prices increasedby 4% annually. From 1964-74 the share of industry, including mining, petroleum,manufacturing, construction and tourîom increased from 23 to 35% of GDP while that of agriculture remained around 21% and that of services correspondinglydeclined. The principalsources of foreign exchange are crude oil, phosphates,tourisL: and olive oil.

2.03 Since the "Ten-Year Perspectives" (1962-71)vas published, important changes in investment policies have been introduced. Untîl the end of that period, the Government committed itself in agriculture to the cooperative system as a vehicle for the reform and education of the farmier,and to heavy public outlays - in irrigation,land conservationand afforestation- vith little effect on production,at least in the short run. Wit:hthe exception of tourism and petroleum exploration,there was little development of the private sector while foreign investmentwas limited. Since 1970, a different strategy has been initiated,with priority going to directly productive investments, the development of labor-intensiveexport industries,and full utilization of existing capacity; the private sector is assiLgnedan essential role, and foreign investors are encouraged to provide finance, expertise and access to export markets. In addition, the Government is aware that an efficient road system is required to promote agriculturaland inidustrialdevelop- ment and tourism. Largely as a result of the new strategy, the real growth rate of GDP from 1971 through 1973 has averaged 9.4% per annum, compared with 4.6% during the previous decade. However, this improvement is partly due to good weather leading to record cereal and olive crops and increased petroleum and phosphate revenues. The real GDP growth rate for 1974 :lsestimated at over 10.5%.

B. The Transport System

2.04 On becoming independentin 1956, Tunisia inherited a relatively well developed transport system. As a result major improvementswere undertaken only after 1968 and in the light of the 1968 Transport Survey.

2.05 The transportationsystem comprises 16,850 km of roads (para. 3.0'); about 2,000 km of standard and narrow gauge railways; four major commercial ports, and five airports, of which three handle internationalflights.

2.06 The increase in total rail freight traffic from 96S2million ton km in 1961 to an estimated 1,522 million ton km in 1974 is primarily due to the increased transport of phosphates and iron ore (Table 1). Between 1967-74 railroads lost a significant portion of their role in internlaltransport to the roads. While railroads accounted for 46% of freight traffic other than phosphates and iron ore and 30% of total passenger traffic in 1967, they now account for 36% and 22%, respectively. Total cargo handled by the afc'emen- tioned four ports increased from 5,358,000 metric tons in 11961to 8,871,000 metric tons in 1972 or an average annual growth rate of 4.7% (Table 2). Total -3 air passenger traffic increased from 188,300 passengers in 1961 to 1,752,600 passengers in 1973, or an average annual growth rate of 20% (Table 3).

2.07 In 1969 the Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer Tunisiens (SNCFT), the Government agency which owns and operates the railways, started a re- habilitationprogram which is still under way, and which the Bank is helping to finance. A Port Master Plan Study financed under the Bank's Second Ports Project is nearing completion. The Government is aware of the need for ier provements of domestic airports and is actively seeking sources of finance to meet it.

C. Transport Policy, Planning and Coordination

2.08 The 1968 Transport Survey revealed two defects in Tunisian transport policy: namely, (a) the absence of effective administrativemachinery for intermodal coordinationin the transportsector, and (b) an excessive degree of regulation. Since 1968 significant improvementshave been introduced. In 1970 a Direction des Transports in the Ministere de l'Economie Nationale (Ministryof the National Economy) was established,which, upon the recommendationof the Commission Sectorielledes Transports (CST) became the Ministere des Transports et Communications(Minîstry of Transport and Communications-MTC)in January 1974.

Organization

2.09 The CST is a consultative body consisting of representatives of the administration, of the various transport agencies and of users which meets on request to study specific problems. MTC's responsibilities in the transport sphere include coordinationof all modes of transport, improvement of transport regulationsand tariffs, overall developmentof the transport sector and the planning of rail, sea-and airport infrastructure.

2.10 The Ministry of Planning has broad overall responsibilityfor transport developmentalong with all other sectors. The planning, administration, constructionand maintenance of the highway network is the responsibilityof the Direction des Ponts et Chaussees (DPC) in the Ministere de l'Equipement (Ministryof Public Works-MPW; Chart).

Regulations

2.11 Progress vith simplificationof regulationshas been slower than progress with reorganization. The Government still controls the transport sector by approving tariffs, and licensing operators. In practice, private operators are limited to the transport of their own goods, or the transport of persons in passenger cars, while public transport (freight and passenger) is controlled by large public companies. Annex A presents the main improvL- ments proposed by MTC but still to be approved by the Cabinet.

2.12 Despite regulatory measures favoring rail at the expense of road for transport of products such as cereals and flour, the financial situation -4-

of SNCFThas remained poor, because of the preferentialtariiEfs enjoyed by certain goods.

User Charges

2.13 Italconsult,as part of the First Highway Project Einancedby the Bank, carried out a road user taxation study and made related recommendations. The recommendations, which have been taken up by MTC and aim at a simplifica- tion and rationalizationof the tax system, are expected to Lmprovethe allocation of traffic to modes and vehicle types. Section 4.04 of the Loan Agree- ment for the First Highway Project stipulates that the Government should review with the Bank the above recommendationsand implement them where appro- priate. The Government,at the present time, is reviewing the recommendations derived from the study. During negotiations,the Government agreed to review these recommendationswith the Bank and to prepare new regulationson road user taxation prior to April 30, 1976, and put them into effect promptly but not later than December 31, 1976.

2.14 All transport tariffs are fixed by the Governmentand cannot be exceeded. Early in 1974 tariffs for freight transport by trucks were revised to cover cost increases. Tariffs for passenger transDorthave not been increased,which has caused financial difficultiesto some of the semi-public transportcompanies (SocietesRegionales de Transport). These difficulties are due to the Government requiring transportcompanies to provide school bus servicesat nominal fares below the cost of operation,and t!heimposition of sales taxes as well as general cost increases. The Government recognizes the need to provide these companies with the funds required to cover losses in revenue due to the introductionor maintenanceof reduced tariffs. During negotiations,the Governmentagreed to fully implement this strategy prior to December 31, 1978.

Investments

2.15 Total investmentsof the Fourth Development Plan (1973-76)amount to D 1,194.2million or an average D 298.6 million annually (Table 4). In- vestments in the communicationsand transportsector of this Plan amount to D 195.7 million of which D 87.4 million are allocated to roads (Table 5). The D 87.4 million,are primarily for road maintenanceand improvementand modernizationof the existing network. Low priority is given to the exten- sion of the road network, which is reasonableexcept perhaps in the context of rural roads (see paras. 2.16 and 5.07).

2.16 The need for improved transport planning and coordination together with a shortage of trained personnel in the MTC are recognized by the Govern- ment. To improve this situation, the proposed project includes consulting services for the updating of the 1968 Transport Survey and the preparationof a rural roads program. During negotiationsthe Governmentand the Bank discussed and agreed on (i) the outline and timetable for the updating of the Survey; and (ii) the scope and formulationof the rural roads program (paras. 4.04 and 4.05). D. Previous Projects

2.17 Annex B shows the details of these projects, which include highwav engineering studies, a highway project, a railway project, a pipeline project and two port projects. The Bank's participation in these projects amounts to US$64.0 million.

III. THE HIGHWAYSECTOR

A. The Network

3.01 The highway network totals 16,850 km, of which about 7,700 km are paved, about 800 km have a gravel surface, about 4,000 km are of earth construction, and the remaining 4,400 km are tracks (Table 6). The network is unevenly distributed over the different regions of the country. It is very dense in the north and along the coast in the east, thins out gradually toward the central region and decreases to a minimum in the arid south.

3.02 While the present network is generally adequate in coverage and length, its design characteristics are in many areas becoming insufficient to handle the growing traffic. Narrow carriageways, inadequate sight distances, tortuous alignments and insufficient pavement thickness cause hazards and high operating costs. Under the First Highway Project certain heavily travelled trunk roads were modernized and light and aging pavements were strengthened. The proposed project will continue to assist the Government in improving and modernizing the network.

B. Traffic

3.03 The Institut National de la Statistique publishes annually the number of registered vehicles (Table 7). Since vehicles which are no longer in use apparently are not removed from the records, the annual numbers are inflated. The proposed project contains provisions to improve the reliability of the vehicle figures (para. 5.07).

3.04 Consultants' estimates of total vehicle fleet in use (excluding agricultural trailers) are approximately 43,200, 51,400 and 71,200 for the years 1962, 1966 and 1972, respectively. Thus the annual growth rate amounts to 4.5% for the period 1962-66 and 5.5% between 1966-1972. By the end of 1973 the total fleet was estimated at 77,300 consisting of 63,200 passenger cars, 3,200 trucks, 8,700 vans, 2,000 buses, and 200 tractors. In addition there are about 700 agricultural trailers. - 6 -

3.05 In the public sector passenger-knm and ton-kmn road traffic has increased at average annual rates of 8.9% ard 15.47, respectively, during the period 1966-71 (Table 7). Traffic increase has been particularly heavy on the access roads to Tunis and the touris:n areas, wher.- rates of 12% to 17.5% per annum are recorded with an average daily traffic in 1973 of 15,000 to 30,000 vehicles on the links from Tunis to route GP1. Part of this significant increase is the result of more liberal vehicle import arid transport licenses policies.

3.06 Estimates of average annual growth rates of road traffic in terms of passenger-km amount to 7.6% and 7.1% for the periods 1972-1976 and 1976- 1980, respectivelv. Corresponding estimates in terms of ton-km are 5.3% and 8.0% for 1972-1976 and 1976-1980, respectively (Table 8). Legal restrictions on vehicle weights (maximum axle-load is 13 tons) and dimensions are satis- factorv and are being enforced.

C. Administration

3.07 The Direction des Ponts et Chaussees (DPC) in the MPWis responsible for the maintenance and development of the highway system. DPC has seven headquarter divisions; administration, organization and methods, design, construction, laboratory, equipment and special studies (Chart). The field organization of DPC includes six field divisions; Tunis, Bizerte, Sousse, Sfax, El Kef and Gabes which in turn supervise 18 field subdivisions, one for each of the "Gouvernorats", the regional political units. A field subdivision has responsibility for 600 to 1,000 km of the highway network.

3.08 The organization of DPC was established following recommendations by the French consultants SCET-BCEOM financed under a Highway Engineering Project (Loan S2-TUN). A major feature of the organization, undertaken in 1972/73 as part of the First Highway Project, was that DPC was given full responsibility for the management of its own equipment fleet. Previously DPC drew its equipment from the Service d'Entretien de Materiel (SEM), a division of another directorate in the MPW.

3.09 The divisions and subdivisions are manned by about 50 engineers and 250 technicians. The engineers in charge are competent, and most have been trained abroad, mainly in France. Several French expatriate engineers occupv positions within the DPC and contribute to an efficient operation.

D. Planning and Engineering

3.10 The Design Division in the DPC is responsible for planning and designing highway projects. A competent Chief Engineer heads the division, but sufficientstaff (especiallyeconomists) is lacking. For this reason DPC employs consultants,both local and foreign, for the preparationof importanthighwav projects; smaller projects are designed by the division.

3.11 The design standards (Table 9) used by DPC for highways,which are satisfactory,are similar to the French standards as describedin "Instruction Francaise sur les ConditionsTechniques d'Amenagement des Routes (ICTAR-1969)".

E. Financing

3.12 Between 1966 and 1970, annual expendituresfor constructionand maintenanceof roads averaged approximatelyD 4.2 million (Table 10). These low expendituresreflect the low priority accorded by the Government to highway infrastructureinvestmnent. However, based on the recommendationsof the TransportSurvey (see para. 2.04) and the recommendationsof the Bank-financed Highway MaintenanceStudy carried out by SCET-BCEOMunder the First Highway Project, the Governmentbecame aware of the importanceof a well maintained and modern highway network. Highway allocationsgrew from D 15.4 million in 1972 to D 17.3 million in 1975 (Table 10); the sharp rise from D 4.2 million in 1971 to D 15.4 million in 1972 was caused by a special budget allocation of D 8.8 million for repairs of the roads damaged in the 1969 floods.

3.13 The central Governmentprovides all funds (maintenanceand construction)for the primary and secondaryroad network, and the Gouvernorats for the tertiary roads.

F. Construction

3.14 The DPC as a matter of policy usually undertakesconstruction of roads through contractors. This is a complete reversal of an earlier policy whereby all highwav constructionwas executed with DPC forces. In order to make use of the substantialequipment pool built up during the 1960's and to keep competitivepressure on foreign contractingfirms operating in Tunisia, the Governmentin 1970 decided to establish the Societe de Materiel et de Travaux (SOMATRA),utilizing former DPC forces and equipment from SEM (para. 3.08) as a starting base. The Governmentowns the majority of the company's shares, but the company is financiallyindependent and free from direct Governmentcontrol. It has successfullyparticipated in the bidding, either alone or in joint ventures with foreign firms, for some of the project elements of the First Highway Project. SOMATRA receives no beneficial considerations and does not constrain the activitiesof private firms. Competingwith SOMATRA and foreign firms are several privatelyowned local constructionfirms (Afrique Travaux, Effert, SABAG), capable of contracts up to US$2.5 million, which are participatingsuccessfully in the constructionof elements of the First High- way Project and other major construction. -8-

3.15 Supervision of all highway construction is carried out by the construction division of the DPC. The staff of this division is assisted in their tasks by the Central Laboratory, another division. The well equipped laboratory executes all soils and materials tests necessary for the supervision and also for engineering of highwav projects. Supervision is satisfactory.

G. Maintenance

3.16 Under the First Highway Project highwav maintenance operations were successfully reorganized and strengthened based on a review oif the highway maintenance organization carried out by the French consultants, SCET-BCEOM, under the Highway EngineeringLoan S2-TUN.

3.17 The maintenance operationsare carried out or are supervised in the field by the 18 Field Subdivisionswhich are located at the Gouvernorats. These Field Subdivisions in turn are supervised by the six Field Divisions. At headquartersexecution of all maintenance work, including t:heresurfacing and rehabilitation of paved roads, is monitored by the division for Organiza- tion and Methods.

3.18 This division, assisted by experts from consultants financed under the First Highway Project, has introduced improved procedures for planning, management and cost accounting. It has, together with the Equipment Division, introduced an equipment depreciation accounting system which is now function- ing satisfactorily. This system will be an important input for determining future renewals of each piece of equipment. It also has introduced full cost accountingof all types of maintenance operations, including the cost of equipment in each operation.

3.19 Periodic maintenance such as the renewal of the wearing course of paved roads is carried out by contractors whereas routine maintenance is carried out by the field subdivisionswith their own forces.

3.20 Since DPC gained full control of equipment (para. 3.08), it has distributed the highway maintenance equipment not allocated to SOMATRA(para. 3.14) to the field divisions. Repairs of so called 'elst' and "2nd degrees" (light repairs) are carried out by the mechanics of the field subdivisions, more serious repairs or overhauls of the equipment ("3rd" and "4th degrees") are carried out at the Equipment Division (Parc Central de Materiel) in Tunis. To avoid transport over long distances from the field subdivisions to the Equipment Division in Tunis, the DPC is contemiplating the creation of two regional equipment pools at Gabes and Kairouan for maintenance and overhaul of equipment.

3.21 The Equipment Divisior.employs about 200 mechanics and electricians; each subdivision has two to three mechanics and electricians according to tile size of their equipment pool. -9-

3.22 Maintenanceexpenditures for 1975 amounted to T)4.6 million including about D 2.0 million administrativecost (Table 10). Tle direct maintenance expenditurerepresents about US$750 per km of paved road and about US$250 per km of gravel road which is satisfactory.

H. Training

3.23 A training program for mechanics and electricianshas been sponsored by the Ministry of Public Works and the Ministry for Social Affairs. This programwhich is financed by the Ministry of Social Affairs and held at the EquipmentDivision, is expected to train 200 - 300 mechanics and electricians per year. The program which appears to be adequate started in May 1975 and is also open for mechanics from the private sector.

3.24 In 1974 the first graduates of civil engineeringleft the National Schoo. in Tunis. DPC expects to meet its need for civil engineers from among the graduates of this school.

IV. THE PROJECT

A. Objectives

4.01 In line with the Governnent'soverall developmentobjectives and the consequentpolicy of stressing maintenanceand improvementof the highway network, the project would:

(a) give impulse to industrial development in the Bizerte region by upgrading the primary road GP8 between Tunis and Bizerte;

(b) reduce transportationcosts on a number of more heavily traf- ficked routes by constructingbypasses and upgrading the present sub-standardfacilities to modern two-lane highways thus providing reliable connectionsbetween major cities in the regions concerned;

(c) help to improve future transportationplanning by providing consultants to assist in upgrading the 1968 Transport Survev; and

(d) help to foster rural development strategy through a rural roads program. - 10 -

B. Description

4.02 The project would consist of:

(a) the improvementof about 225 km of primary and secondary roads: and

(b) consulting services to assist in updating the 1968 Trans- port Survey and to assist with the preparationof a rural roads program.

Highways Improvements (Annex C)

4.03 The following road sections would be improved to two-lane paved standards:

(a) GP1: Tunis-LibyanBorder Road

(i) constructionof a bypass at Sousse (32.0 km) arnda section of MC82 leading from Sousse to Moknine (1.2 km);

(ii) constructionof a bypass at El-Djem (3.2 km); and

(iii) constructionof a bypass at Sfax (8.0 km);

(b) GP5: Tunis-MIedjez-el-BabRoad

improvement of the section Mornaghia-Medjez-el--Bab (38.2 km);

improvementof the entire road (46.2 km);

(d) GP8: Tunis-BizerteRoad

improvementof the entire road (57.7 km); and

(e) MC 28/MC 27: Hammamet-KorbaRoad

improvementof the entire road (37.7 km) including constructionof bypasses at the towns of Hammainet, Nabeul and Beni Khiar.

Consulting Services

1968 Transport Survey

4.C4 The proposed project would provide about 70 man-months of consulting services over a period of two years to the M'C in order to assist MTC staff in the updating of the 1968 Transport Survev (para. 5.13). - 11 -

Rural Roads Program

4.05 In many areas, agriculturaland rural developmentbas been con- strained by lack of adequate transportfacilities. The proposed project would provide also about 110 man-months of consulting services over a period of two and a half years to assist the MPW in the preparationof a program of rural road improvementand constructionto foster agriculturaland rural development. The main purpose of this program, which will consist of a pilot program (Phase I) and possibly, a follow-upproject (Phase II) is to identify and prepare rural roads for improvementor constructionand, possibly, related complementaryinvestments. The probable concept and scope of the program is shown in Annex A.

C. Engineering

4.06 Engineeringaccording to the design standardsof Table 9 was carried out by the joint ventures between foreign and local firms BCEOM-STUDI,Renardet SAUTI-SCEEand SETEC-SOTUETEC. The standardswhich are satisfactoryare similar to the French standards describedin "InstructionFrancaise sur les ConditionsTechniques d'Amenagement des Routes (ICTAR-1969)". The soils and materials investigationswere satisfactorilycarried out by the Laboratory Division of DPC.

D. Cost Estimates

4.07 Details of cost estimates for the various project items are given in Tables 11 and 12. The estimated cost of the project is as follows:

------D'000 ------US$'000 ------Foreign Item Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Component A. Highway Improve- ments 6,151 6,936 13,087 15,977 18,014 33,991 53 B. Consulting Services 131 308 439 342 798 1,140 70 Subtotal 6,282 7,244 13,526 16,319 18,812 35,131 54 Contingencieson A and B

C. Price Escalation 2,439 2,813 5,252 6,335 7,307 13,642 D. Physical (10%) 628 725 1,353 1,632 1,881 3,513 Subtotal 3,067 3,538 6,605 7,967 9,188 17,155 TOTAL 9,349 10,782 20,131 24,286 28,000 52,286

Say: 24,300 28,000 52,300 54 - 12 -

4.08 The cost estimates for improvementworks are based on quantities from the final design and on unit rates pertaining in early 1975. The cost estimates for consulting services are based on the estimatedman-months required and consultants'rates pertaining in early 1975.

4.09 Contingenciesfor price escalation for constructionand consulting services have been estimatedon expected price increases of 16% in 1975, 14% in 1976 and 12% in each of the two years following thereafter. Details are given in Annex D. A 10% physical contingencyfor improvementworks as well as for consulting services has been included to allow for unforeseen quantity increase in the improvementitems and for man-months in consulting services, respectively.

4.10 The foreign exchange component is estimated at US$28.0 million, which is 54% of total project cost. The foreign exchange component for the highway improvementworks would range from 58% to 48% according to whether constructionwas carried out by foreign or local firms. Based on the most likely blend of foreign and local participationthe foreign exchange component is estimated at 53%. Where possible works have been broken down into smaller contracts to encourage local participation. Foreign firms will be permitted to bid on groups of contracts. For consulting services the foreign exchange component is estimated at 70% based on the most likely event that these services would be provided by foreign firms with participationof local firms. All cost estimates have been discussedand agreed with the Borrower during negotiations.

E. Financing

4.11 The proposed loan of US$28.0 million would finance 54% of the total cost of US$52.3 million and finance the entire foreign exchange component of the project. The Government would provide the local component from its concerned budgets.

F. Implementation

Responsibilityfor Project Execution

4.12 The DPC would be responsible for the lmplementationof the road works. All road improvementworks would be carried out by contract and supervised by the DPC which is competent for this purpose. The DPC would also be responsible for the rural roads study, whereas the MTC would be responsible for the updating of the 1968 Transport Survey. The consulting services would be provided by qualified and experienced consultantssatisfactory to the Bank. - 13 -

Procurement

4.13 For the improvementworks contractson the basis of unit prices would be awarded after internationalcompetitive bidding in accordancevith the Bank's Guidelinesfor Procurement. Works are expected to start about mid- 1976 and be completedabout early 1979. Proposals for the consultingservices would be invited early 1976, after the terms of reference have been agreed between the Governmentand the Bank. The services are expected to be completedin the second half of 1978 for the updating of the Transport Survey as well as for the Rural Roads Study.

Project ImplementationSchedule

4.14 A Project ImplementationSchedule is in Annex E. The schedule has been discussed and agreed with the Goverrmentduring loan negotiations.

G. Disbursements

4.15 Disbursementswould be made on the basis of 53% of total expenditures (which is the estimated foreign cost component)for the highway improvement works and 70% of total expendituresfor consultingservices. Based on this and on the project implementationschedule, an Estimated Schedule of Disbursements(Annex F) has been prepared. The schedule has been discussed and agreed with the Governmentduring loan negotiations. Any surplus remaining in the Loan Account on completionof the project would be cancelled.

H. Environmental Impact

4.16 None of the project elements will adverselyaffect the enviroument. The planned bypasses for the towns of Hammamet, Nabeul, Beni Khiar, Sousse, El-Djem and Sfax vill relieve the urban areas from traffic noise and air pollution.

V. ECONOMICEVALUATION

A. Main Benefits and Beneficiaries

5.01 The highway lengths to be improved representsections of Tunisia's highway network most in need of improvement. The present transportationcosts on these lengths are unduly high and the improvementswill reduce vehicle operatingcosts, journey times, accidentsand highway maintenancecosts. Ad- ditionally,a shift to larger (more economic)vehicles will be possible and increased travel comfort available. - 14 -

5.02 The routes on which the project sections are locatiedare inter- regional. Benefitswill thereforeaccrue to both long dista13cceàadlocal traffic. The bypass sections on GP1 and MC 27/28 will enabla tthroughtraffic particularly trucks to avoid the towns of Sousse, El-Djem, Sfax, Hammamet, Nabeul and Beni Khiar.

5.03 The possible effect of the improvementof sections GP1, GP5, GP6 and GP8 on railway transport between Tunis-Sfax, Tunis-Bizerte, and Tunis- Algiers has been examined. The road improvementsare not expected to signi- ficantly divert traffic from the railwayswhich specializein long distance bulk cargo.

5.04 The project roads serve important agricultural areas with small and medium-sized farms producing olives (GP1), cereals (GP6), oranges (MC 27 and MC 28) and cattle (GP5 and GP6). Other important commodities that would be affected by the improved facilitiesare processed agriculturalcommodities, fish products,bottled beverages,fuels, chemical and light industrialpro- ducts, and constructionmaterials.

5.05 The project is well timed to supplementspecific ongoing and proposed projects such as the Medjerda and Nebhana IrrigationProjects (LN 1068), the Tourism InfrastructureProject (CR 329), the Sousse-NordTourism Project <1973 and 1975 IFC Investment),the enlargementof citrus fruit and olive plantationsin Sousse, the Northern Tunisian Water Master Plan, and the development of industrialparks in Tunis, Bizerte, Menzel Bourguiba,Nabeul, Sousse and Sfax.

5.06 The Governmentcontrols tariffs and thereby limits profits on vehicle operations. Since the tariffs are related (amongstother thinge) to road conditions,transport cost savings from the improved roads will largely be passed on to small farmers and manufacturers,consumers and passengers. The project will assist the Governmentin its objective to stimulate economic developmentand regional integration.

Consulting Services

5.07 The project also includes provision of consultingservices for technical assistance for (a) transport planning, and (b) a rural roads program. The technical assistance for transport planning would update the 1968 Transport Survey and provide on-the-job training and is expected to help ensure that future investments in the transport sector would be made according to an integratedtransport plan based on economic criteria and reliable basic data, including fleet statistics. The technicalassistance for a rural roads program would provide services to assist the MPWin the preparation of a programwhich is expected to foster agriculturaldevelopment. - 15 -

B. Economic Evaluation

Highway Improvements

5.08 Based on the most probable estinatesof constructioncosts, vehicle operating costs, time costs, base year traffic and trafficgrowth, the proposed investmentsin the project roads sections produce economic returns (ER's) ranging from 18.0% to 42.0% (Table 13). These ER's range from 16.5% to 36.0% if travel time savings are not considered. The ER for the road improvementprogram as a whole is 33.2% (26.4% without travel time savings). Sensitivityanalyses testing the ER's of this program gave a return of 28.3% assuming 25% cost overrun, and a return of 26.7%, assuming a 25% reduction of benefits (Table 14).

5.09 For the purpose of economic analysis, the road improvementsare divided into sections according to physical characteristicsand traffic conditions. Details of these sections on which the 1973 average daily traffic (ADT) ranged from about 900 to 4,000 are shown in Table 13. The economic benefits of alternativeimprovements for each road section (aggregatedover an expected life of 20 years) have been assessed to determine the optimal treatment in terms of alignment,width, pavement strength and timing.

5.10 Traffic forecastsper type of vehicle are based on past traffic trends,origin and destinationstudies, and expected population growth. Estimated traffic growth during 1973-79on the various project sections ranges from 2.3% to 24.0% per annum. The latter percentage relates to GP8 trafficnear Tunis, where traffic diversion from MC 31 is expected. Corres- ponding annual traffic growth rates during 1979-80 range from 5.4% to 14.5%.

5.11 Traffic forecastsare conservativesince they do not include generated traffic attributable to the ongoing projects referred to in paragraph 5.05, while other generated traffic is negligible. Particularly the improvement of GP8 is expected to play a significantrole in the developmentof industrial parks in flenzelBourguiba and Bizerte. It is, however, difficult to predict the benefits attributed by such road improvements,to industrial development.

5.12 The average unit saving in vehicle operating costs is approximately 15%. The operating costs for the six vehicle categoriesconsidered (passenger cars, vans, trucks with a loading capacity equal to or less than 3.5 tons, trucks with a loading capacity greater than 3.5 tons, trailers and buses) are shown in Table 15. They are based on the average characteristicsof typicalvehicles in Table 16. Hourly savings associatedwith working and non-workingtriDs have been estimatedat 100%2'and 20% of average hourly earn- ings in the relevant regions, respectively. The number of commuterson the proposed project roads is relativelvsmall: their trins are treated as non- working ones. - 16 -

ConsultingServices

5.13 Benefits from the consulting services are extremelydifficult to quantify. The assistancefor transportplanning should helr ensure that future investmentsin the sector would maximize socio-economicbenefits. In addition the MTC staff would receive on-the-job training to enable them to continue the planning process upon departureof the consultants. The main purpose of the rural roads study is to identify and analyze rural roads for constructionor improvementin areas where their inadequacyis a serious obstacle to agriculturaldevelopment.

VI. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.01 Agreement having been reached on the principal issues discussed in Chapters II and IV, based on the economic lives of the roads or road sections to be improved, the project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$28.0 million to the Governmentof Tunisia for a 24-year term, includingfour years of grace.

December 1975 APPRAISAJ. OP EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND hlGhWAY PROJECT DEUXIrIIE PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Rail Transport; Main Freight. 1961-74

Transports ferroviaires; :';arohandises transport6es. 1961-74

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Freight N-rther- Southern Northern Soothern Narthe-n Southern Narther- Southern N-rthe-n Soothern- N-ther- Soothero Northe-n Southern Marchandis.s ('000 T-km) Systen Systen System Systen System Syster Systea Dysten Systen lysten System System lystem Systen ('U000 T-ki)

Phasphates n5a. na n.a. ns. n.a. 0.0. n.0. n,a. n.0. n.a. n.s. n.a. 12,432 709,814 Phosphates

Iran are n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0. 163,673 - Minerai de fer

Cerenls n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.. .n.a. 0.0. 0.0. n.a. n.a. 70,665 8,306 Céreales

Building 0.0. 0.0. n.0. n.a. n.a. n.s. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.. n.. 41,209 8,234 Matérfsis de mate-ials construction

Oth6r -arga . n.a . n.a. n.a. n.a. n.. .. .a. n.a. n.a. . 8228 45591 Autre fret

Total 441 521 420 546 440 589 440 687 488 746 426 768 426,207 767,945 Total

Million passengers-km/Millions de vayageurs-kI

Pas songer Traffic Trafic vayage.rs

Min lines 280.8 301.8 310.4 318.5 347.5 288.0 Lignes principales suburban 99.5 107.9 116.3 123.2 136.2 120.4 Banlieu

Total 380.3 409.7 426.7 441.7 483.7 408.4 Total

1968 1969ote Nt 1f71 19782 1973 - 1974 Freight Worther- Southe r e NrSethe7 the Ntrther- Southern- N-ther- Southern Marchandises ('000 T-kI) System Syste Syster Systen System System System Systen Systen Synten ('000 T-km)

Phosphates 48,468 796,150 39,656 592,606 74,428 700,661 27,534 770,393 51,152 810,373 856,633 1,006,581 Phosphates

Iran are 199,314 - 173,443 - 207,185 - 208,228 - 203,158 - 192,262 193,438 Minerai de fer

Cereals 66,948 1,822 72,760 2,084 89,589 780 86,128 787 98,573 638 95,930 79,607 Cér6ales

Building 59,369 3,472 82,392 4,493 107,637 7,161 129,796 7,187 121,108 6,746 90,952 81,008 Matériaox de matetials construction

Other -argo 110,911 41,067 88.285 37.700 100,207 40,620 104.122 37.386 113.224 37.333 156,191 161,339 Astre fret

Total 485,037 842, 511 456, 536 636, 883 579, 046 749, 222 555,808 815, 753 587, 215 855, 090 1,391,968 1,521,973 Total

Million oasseoger-kml/ilîians de voyageors--k

Passenget Traffic Trsfit voyageurs

Main lines 312.4 298.8 293.4 312.3 337.4 341.0 339.8 Lignes prinaipales

Suborban 124.8 140.2 148.9 157.9 168.1 185.4 194.3 Banlieu

Total 437.2 439.0 442.3 470.2 505.5 526.4 534.1 Total

1/ Integration af the Northern and Soothern Syste-s (Sfax Gafsa)/Integration des Reseoa. Nord et Sud (Sfax Gafsa)

Soorne: S.N.C.F.T.

Den..ber/Daeneb.e 1976 APPRAISAL OF FVALUATIOND'UN A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER TUtNISIA Sea Transport. 1961-73 TESISIE

Transports maritimes, 1961-73

Unit Unité 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 197 Ships-" Arrivals Navires- and Sailings Nr. 7176 6s88 6622 7226 8272 8074 7350 6850 7656 7073 7662 8203 Entrées et Sorties of which: Tunis Goulette 4076 3812 3890 4092 3754 4118 3706 3354 3761 3640 3748 3975 dont: Tunis Goulette Bizerte 504 428 490 792 1240 1212 1210 1270 1680 1159 865 968 Bizerte Sfax 2002 1796 1762 1866 2672 2274 1940 1784 1620 1729 2391 2412 Sfax Sousse 594 552 480 476 606 470 494 442 595 545 658 848 Sousse Net tonnage million 10.3 9.5 10.1 11.3 12.0 12.9 12.1 12.4 13.5 13.1 25.1 26.9 Tonneaux de jauge nette- of which: Tunis Goulette 6.2 s.6 5.8 6.1 6.o 6.6 6.2 5.5 6.3 6.1 12.2 13.4 dont: Tunis Goulette Bizerte 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.2 3.1 3.7 3.6 5.4 5.5 Bizerte Sfax 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 6.o 6.4 Sfax Sousse 0.7 o.6 o.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 o.8 1.5 1.6 Sousse Passengersi-/ 1000 Passagersa/ Arrivals 31.5 35.8 35.4 39.0 36.4 40.8 46.o 47.3 60.6 71.8 86.2 94.6 Entrées Departures 65.4 51.7 41.5 54.7 40.1 40.3 51.5 52.9 71.6 81.8 95.8 103.9 Sorties Total 96.9 87.5 76.9 93.7 76.5 81.1 97.5 100.2 132.2 153.6 182.0 198.5 Total of which: Tunis Goulette 87.9 84.7 75.3 92.5 73.6 81.4 91.5 100.0 131.8 124.6 171.6 .. dont: Tunis Goulette Bizerte 7.8 - 0.8 0.2 o.6 - - - - ...... Bizerte Sfax ------...... Sfax Sousse 1.2 2.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 3.6 0.2 0.4 ...... Sousse Cargo unloaded-' lOOOT Marchandisesdébarquées- Solid fuels 48 34 42 30 50 94 81 106 120 159 101 141 Charbons Liquid fuels 493 505 624 1153 1268 620 798 1568 1845 1905 2073 2209 Combustiblesliquides Cereals 575 428 139 121 259 274 408 347 537 447 244 274 Céréales Otler goods 637 647 700 888 884 1804 1733 910 915 948 1075 1185 Autres marchandises Total 1753 1614 1505 2192 2461 2792 3020 2931 3417 3459 3493 3809 Total of which: Tunis Goulette 1208 1064 1003 1002 966 1092 1214 1148 1293 1247 1355 1495 dont: Tunis Goulette Bizerte 76 136 143 744 937 1115 1203 1227 1412 1537 1436 1500 Bizerte Sfax 332 297 299 395 474 515 513 483 614 557 610 696 Sfax Sousse 137 117 60 51 84 70 90 73 98 118 92 119 Sousse Cargo loaded-a OOOT Marchandisesembarquées- Phosphates 1940 1921 2210 2425 2681 2623 2604 2824 2260 2520 2797 2702 Phosphates Iron ore 895 689 783 911 969 1176 668 667 801 672 957 F37 Minerai Espartograss de fer 81 78 50 51 64 47 49 41 43 50 35 26 Alfa Cement 93 86 146 96 362 37 - 61 37 67 23 140 Ciment Sait - - 301 202 21 295 225 329 246 170 197 31- Sel Cereals 29 31 132 117 57 110 - - - 32 5 7 Céréales Other goods 567 665 464 1051 968 1126 1220 1225 1268 1288 1002 152- Autres marchandises Total 3605 3468 4086 4853 5122 5414 47 5147 465 4799 1046 s06- Total of which: Tunis Goulette 1448 1289 1475 1457 1379 1587 1158 1021 1161 1164 994 10?1 dont: Tunis Goulette Bizerte 113 165 157 871 884 992 854 1034 1123 1086 1051 109, Bizerte Sfax 1903 1854 2258 2382 2628 2649 2s67 2920 2225 2397 2834 2741 Sfax Sousse 141 160 196 143 231 186 187 172 146 152 167 207 Sousse

_a/ Excluding traffic in ports of Gabes, Cekhira and Tabarka/noncompris le traffic des ports de Gabes, Cekhira, et Tabarka. . " Since 1971, gross tonnage/Apartir de 1971, tonneauxde jauge brute.

Source: InstitutNational de la Statistique c

December/Decembre 1975 EVALUATIOU 12`. APpRAISAL-OF DE EXIFE`FRO.JET RVtEl A SECOZ;g F.IG

Air Trarnsoorr. 1961-73

Transpo-ts aeri.ns. 1961-73

1971 1972 1973 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Passagers (milliers) Passenger Traffic (thousands) Services internationaux International services réguliers 285.9 328.9 382.6 476.6 541.8 642.1 614.0 671.2 Vol Scheduled flights .. 184.6 l94.3 234.7 269.1 8 57.4 125.7 139.8 230.0 218.1 243.6 405.1 971.8 884.5 Charters Charters _ 8._ 14.6 23 411.6 468.7 612.6 694.7 785.4 1047.2 1585.8 1555.7 Total Total 178.7 192.9 208.9 258.5 326.5 Services intérieurs- Domestic Service Vol rdégliers 12.9 11.1 14.7 23.5 59.4 39.4 43.0 . .. Scheduled flights .. 3.9 5.1 9.2 Charters 29.8 46.0 79.7 156.0 150.6 285.0 _ . Charters .. - - - - 39.9 60.7 103.2 215.4 190.0 328.0 114.1 125.2 Total Total *- 3'9 5.1 9.2 12.9 passagers en transit 23.4 y,o 32-4 32./. PR1 5.9 4.0 Ž4 71.7 Transit 9.6 8.4 71 15.1 488.5 561.8 748.2 938.2 840.3 1378.6 17m7.3 1752.6 Total Passagers Total Passenger Traffic 188.3 205.2 221.1 282.8 362.8 Internationales 2.40 5.20 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Messageries International- Freight2.04 (milliers de tonnes) 3.25 3.60 3-90 4.43 4.77 5.20 7.41 7.58 InternationalFreight (thousand tons) - 2.04 2.42 2.40 2.66

Mouvements d'avions Aireraft sovements Carthage 9971 11174 12178 14153 15800 17536 ?0280 21080 Tunis Tunis Carthage .. 4825 5427 6596 7303 1012 1431 1784 2338 2549 3222 4183 3822 Jerba Nellita Jerba Mellita - - - - - Skants )bnastir - 246 1622 1032 1894 2722 3319 Skanes MIonastir - -- Total 10983 12605 14208 18113 19381 22652 27185 28227 Total 4825 5427 6596 7303

1972 le trafic des aéroports de Jerba et Monastir est compté dans / Since 1972 traffic of Monastir and Jerba is tncluded in "international services"/Depuis les "services internationaux".

Source: Direction des Transports n. December/Decewbre 1975 r, EVALUATION D'UN APPRAISAL OF DEUXIEMEPROJET ROUTIER A SECONDHIC11NAY PROJECT TUNISIE TUNISIA

Actual and Planned Investmentsby Sector, 1962-76; (Millions of Dinars, current prices)

Realisations et previsions d'investissementspar secteur, 1962-76: (en millions de dinars, aux prix courante)

1962-1964 1965-1968 1969-1972 1962-1972 Plan ProiecçtioD/Préviaions du Plan (a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) 1973 1974 1975 1976 - 1 Val. vall. Val.VaVal. -a!

Gross fixed capital formation 330.0 291.6 100.0 455.0 549.0 100.0 617.0 666.6 100.0 1402.0 1507.2 100.0 257.2 301.2 306.5 329.3 1194.2 100.0 Formation brute de capital fixe Agriculture 63.1 21.6 150.5 122.7 22.3 128.0 109.6 16.4 295.4 19.6 32.5 44.4 50.4 50.4 177.7 14.9 Agriculture Mining, crude oil 24.7 8.5 70.9 12.9 67.7 73.1 11.0 168.7 11.2 29.4 31.3 37.2 46.4 144.3 12.1 Industries extractives et pétrole Energy, power and water 9.0 3.1 141.0 33.2 6.o 48.6 56.9 8.5 99.1 6.6 24.2 20.0 17.1 16.9 78.2 6.5 E.ergie et eau Manufacturing 35.5 12.2 59.9 10.9 63.6 75.7 11.4 171.1 11.4 40.8 44.6 38.1 36.7 160.2 13.4 Industries manufacturières Transport id communications 24.5 8.4 55.0 44.1 8.0 96.3 87.1 13.1 155.7 10.3 41.6 52.2 49.4 52.5 195.7 16.4 Transports et coasunications Housing 52.7 18.0 16.8 64.7 11.8 51.3 92.9 13.9 210.3 13.9 32.6 37.7 36.7 37.5 144.5 12.1 Logement Tourism 23.6 8.1 49.7 9.1 60.0 74.2 11.1 147.5 9.8 24.1 28.1 29.6 31.8 113.6 9.5 Tourisme Other services 4.3 1.5 91.7 8.0 1.5 11.9 13.2 2.0 25.5 1.7 4.8 4.2 4.6 4.7 18.3 1.5 Autres services Infrastructure 54.2 18.6 95.8 17.5 89.6 83.9 12.6 233.9 15.5 27.2 38.7 43.4 52.4 161.7 13.6 Infrastructure

(a) Plan Projections/Prévisions du Plan (b) Actuals/Réalisations

Source: Mi.cccdu °an.

December/Decembre 1975

ai ;J

as 's Si

i s~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~P t` s S

APPRAISAL OP? EVALUATIOND'UN

A SECONDHlCnWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA Actual and Planned InvestmentsbyMode.1962-76 (current prices) TUN'ISIE

Realisations et previsions d'investissements par mode,1962-76 (aux prix courants)

Projected investmentp.a./ Actuals/Réalisations Prévisionsannuelles d'investissement Total 62-72Toa7-6 1962-64 1965-68 1969-72 Dinars (000) % 1973 1974 1975 1976 Dinars (000) ç

Road Transport Transport routier Infrastructure 7,973 9,305 14,796 32,074 18.8 9,738 12,329 15,196 16,686 53,949 -/ 27.5 Infrastructure Equipment 4,411 11,389 15,508 31.308 18.3 4,681 7,893 9,774 11,092 33,440 17.1 Matériel Sub-total 12,384 20,694 30,304 63,382 37.1 14,419 20,222 24,970 27,778 87,389 44.6 Sous total

Rail Transport Transport ferroviaire Infrastructure 202 1,801 2,282 4,285 2.5 4,314 2,705 1,425 3,973 12,417 6.3 Infrastructure Equipment 1 956 4,813 7.487 14.256 B." 3,133 5,100 4 189 2 955 15.377 7-9 Matériel Sub-total 2,158 6,614 9,769 18,541 10.8 7,447 7,805 5i614 6,928 27,794 14.1 Sous total

Maritime Transport Transport maritime Infrastructure - - 11,200 11,200 6.5 3,477 3,836 2,240 1,376 10,929 5.6 Infrastructure Equipment 884 1,291 7,864 10,039 5.9 3,151 5,608 1,495 7,160 oatériel17,414 8.9 Ports - - 4,000 4,000 2.3 351 452 195 160 1,158 0.6 Portuaire Shipping 884 1,291 3.864 6.039 3.6 2,800 5,156 1,300 7.000 16,256 8.5 C.T.N. Sub-total 884 1,291 19,064 21,239 12.4 6,628 9,444 3,735 8,536 28,343 14.5 Sous total

Air Transport Transport aériens Infrastructure 2,142 2,215 15,782 20,139 11.8 4,675 3,978 2,799 2,750 14,202 7.3 Infrastructure Fquipment 1,557 4 069 5.860 11,486 6j7 4,550 4.150 4,950 250 13,900 7.1 ,fatdriel Sub-total 3,699 6 21, 31,625 18.5 9,225 8,128 7,749 3,000 28,102 14.4 Sous total

Communication 3,049 4,005 10,368 17,422 10.2 3,124 6,242 7,257 6,312 22,935 11.7 Communications (equipment) (Matériel)

Meteo - - 1,179 1,179 0.7 747 333 136 - 1,216 0.6 Météorologie (infrastructure) (infrastructure)

Oil Pipelines - - 17,400 17,400 10.2 ------Oleoduc (equipment) (Matériel)

GENERAL TOTAL 22,174 38,888 109.726 170.788 100.0 41,590 52.174 49.461 52.554 195.779 100.0 TOTAL GENERAL Infrastructure 10,317 13,321 45,239 68,877 40.3 22,951 23,181 21,796 24,785 92,713 47.4 Infrastructure Equipment 11,857 25,567 64,487 101,911 59.7 18,639 28,993 27,665 27,769 103,066 52.6 Matériel

1/ IncludingD. 5.0 million for Tourism Roads and D. 14.5 million for local agencies and for flood damage/Y compris infrastructuretouristique de 5.0 million de Dinar et compensationaux collectivité locales et inondations,14.5 millions de Dinars.

Source: Direction des Transports et Ministere du Plan

December/fecembre 19 75 APPRAISAL OF EVALUATIOND'UN

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Highway Network 1975

Reseau Routier 1975

Carriage way Length AdministrativeClassification Road Surface Width Total % of (de) Class fication Administrative Unclassified Chaussée Chaussée Largeur Longeur Total Primary1' Secondary2l Tertiary.3/ Non Classé' (m) (km) (km) (km) (km) (km)

(a) Paved 6.5 and over Revetue et plus 735 4.4 5.5 - 6.5 1,525 9.0 4.5 - 5.5 3,268 19.4 less than 4.5 2,166 12.9 moins que 7,694 45.7 3,243 3,180 1,025 246

(b) Gravel 4.5 - 7.0 779 4.6 42 252 440 45 Crave (c) Earth 4.5 - 6.0 8,377 49.7 784 3,050 4,433 110 Terre Total Highway Network 16,850 100.0 4,069 6,482 5,898 401 Total Reseau Routier

1/ Routes de Grand Parcours (GP) 2/ Routes de Moyenne Communications(MC) 3/ Routes Vicinales d'Etat (RVE)

Source: Direction des Ponts et Chaussées- Service des StatistiquesRoutières.

December/Decembre1975

t ~~~~~~~~tr APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D' UN

A SECOND HIGIW.;AYPROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Velicle Fleet and Road Traffic,1961-73

Parc des véhliculeset transportsroutiers,1961-73

SixSix Months/ Mois 1961 1962 1965 1964 1965 1966 1 1968 1969 1970 1971 oi

Length of Roads (in kilometers) Longueur du réseau routier (en km) Main roads 8697 8786 9010 10210 9970 10303 10482 10482 10482 10482 10482 10482 ,. Routes de grande circulation Feeder roads 6946 6906 5593 4544 4836 5141 5603 5603 5603 5603 5603 5603 . Routes vicinales Number of vehicles licensed on Situation du parc au 31 December décembre 31 (thousands) 98.8 100.7 105.2 108.1 112.9 118.1 123.8 126.7 132.4 140.9 153.4 171.1 181.2 (milliers) Private cars 47.0 47.0 48.0 49.1 51.2 53.7 56.7 59.0 62.3 66.4 72.1 80.4 85.0 Voitures de tourisme Commercial vehicles 26.7 25.8 28.3 28.9 30.1 31.5 32.4 33.1 34.9 37.3 41.5 47.2 50.4 Véhicules utilitaires Motorcycles 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.2 Motos Tractors 11.9 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.6 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.7 21.1 22.6 25.1 26.4 Tracteurs Trailers and others 3.6 2.4 2.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 6.0 5.6 5.6 6.3 7.2 8.3 9.2 Remorques et autres

New registrations (units) 6861 6169 5816 6557 4986 5649 5035 7261 5946 8699 12839 17827 1023 Immatriculations (unités) Private cars 2904 2906 2151 2367 2104 2753 3220 4044 3364 4217 5824 8503 4692 Voitures de tourisme Commercial vehicles 2931 2385 2608 2562 1261 1586 1009 1788 1852 2436 4383 5500 3977 Véhicules stilitaires Motorcycles 221 172 215 144 1s6 138 205 124 142 99 159 106 53 Motos Tractors 356 401 335 900 1041 854 322 659 386 1428 1650 2465 1364 Tracteurs Trailers and others 449 305 507 584 424 318 279 646 202 519 823 1173 --2 Remorques et autres Road Transport (public sector) Transports Routiers (secteur semi-public) Ton-Km (millions) .. '' *' 126 174 240 312 393 440 470 490 ., , Tonnes-Km. (million) Passengers-Rm (millions) ., ,. .. 560 631 7c4 940 1013 1070 1130 1200 .. . Voyageurs-Km (million)

Employment . . . 2137 5385 5815 6606 7562 8153 9203 10440 .. . Emploi

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et Direction des Transports

December/Decembre 197c APPRAISAL OP EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HIGb'WAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Road Traffic Estimate

Previsions de trafic routier

Freight/Marchandines Average Amnual Growth Freight/Marchandises Average Annual Growth Freight/Marchandises Ton-ki (million) rate/Taux =oyens de Ton-ki (million) rate/Taux moyens de Ton-ki (million) 1972 croissance 1972-76 % 1976 croissance 1976-80 % 1980

Trucks 558 4.40 663 8.00 902 Camions

Vans 146 9.05 207 8.55 287 Camionettes

Trailers 126 4.25 149 6.00 190 Remorques

Semi-trailers 27 5.30 119 9.00 169 Semi remorques

Total 927 5.25 1,138 8.00 1,548 Total

Passenger-km/ Average Annual Growth Passenger-km/ Average Annual Growth Passenger-km/ Voyageurs-km rate/Taux moyens de Voyageurs-km rate/Taux moyens de Voyageurs-km (million) croissance (million) croissance (million) 1972 1972-76 % 1976 1976-80 % 1980

Passenger cars 2,028 7.85 2,745 7.10 3,612 Voiture de tourism

Taxis 248 7.75 334 7.26 448 Taxis

Limousines 333 7.90 452 7.30 598 Limousines

Commercial Vehicles 243 7.75 327 7.05 429 Voitures coerciales

City buses 1,956 7.10 2,574 7.45 3,432 Autobus urbains

Intercity buses 1,073 7.50 1,434 6.65 1,856 Autobus interurbains

Tourist boses 51 7.55 682 6.80 888 Autocars touristiques

Total 6,392 7.55 8,548 7.10 11,258 Total

Source: Ministry of Transport and Commnications and Mission Estimates/ a Ministere de Transport et Communications et Estimation de la Mission

Lecemberecembre 1975 APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE Design Characteristics of Project Roads

Caracteristiques Géométriques des Routes du Projet

Tunis- Mornaghia- Beja- Tunis- Hammamet- Unit Sfax Medjez Jendouba Bizerte Korba Unité (GP1) (GP5) (GP6) (GP8) (MC27/28)

Terrain - Flat/ Rolling/ Rolling/ Rolling/ Flatt Terrain Plat Vallonné Vallonné Vallonnes Plat

Design Speed km/h 100 100 100 100 80 Vitesse de base Max. Gradient % 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 Declivité max. enrampe Width of Carriageway m 700 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Largeur de la chaussée Width of Shoulders m 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Largeur de l'accotemet Min. Horizontal Curves m 900 900 900 900 650 Rayon en plan Min. V'.rticalCurves Rayon min. vertic. - Summit m 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 10,000 - Angle saillant - Sags m 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200 3,000 - Angle rentrant Max. Single Axle Load ton 13 13 13 13 13 Max. charge d'essieu Type of Wearing Surface - -…------asphaltic concrete/enrobs…-- Couche de roulement Bridge Width m --- 10.50 m with 7.00 m carriageway------Largeur de pont 10.50 m avec 7.00 m de chaussée Se croe

Source: Direction des Ponts et Chaussée <

December/Dlecembre1975. Table/Tableau 10

APPRAISAL OF EVALUATIOND'UN

A SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEM4EPROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Highway Expenditures: 1966-75 (D'OOO)

Dépenses pour routes: 1966-75

Total Maintenance11 Investment Highway Year Expenditures- Expenditures Expenditures Année Entretien Investissements Total

1966 2,550 1,650 4,200

1967 2,530 2,170 4,700

1968 2,610 2,170 4,780

1969 2,690 950 3,560

1970 2,590 1,030 3,620

1971 2,840 1,360 4,200

1972 3,110 1270-/ 15,380

1973 3,480 7,450 10,930

1974 3,730 14,290 18,020

1975 4,620 12,630 17,250

1/ Including administrative costs attributable to.highway maintenance/Comprisdépenses administrativeattributables à l'entretienroutier.

2/ Including D8.8 million for repair of 1969 flood damage/Compris D8.8 million pour réparationsdes dégâts de l'inondationen 1969.

Source: Direction des Ponts et Chaussees

December/Decembre1975 Table/Tableau 11

APPRAISAL OF EVALUATIOND'UN A SECOND HIGHWAYPROJECT DEUXIEMEPROJET ROUTIER TUNISIA TUNISIE

Cost Estimates for Highway ImprovementWorks

Estimation des coÛts pour travaux d'amélioration des routes

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Foreign Travaux d'amélioration Highway Improvement Local Devises Total Local Devises Total Devises des routes ------(DI0O) ------(Us$',0O) ----- (b) 1. GP1: Sousse-Sfax 1. GP1: Sousse-Sfax a) Sousse Bypass 1,645 1,855 3,500 4,273 4,818 9,091 53 a) Déviation Sousse b) El-Djem Bypass 194 218 412 504 566 1,070 53 b) Déviation El-Djem c) Sfax Bypass 517 583 1,100 1,343 1,514 2,857 53 c) Déviation Sfax 2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez-el-Bab 768 867 1,635 1,995 2,252 4,247 53 2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez-el-Bab 3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba 705 795 1,500 1,831 2,065 3,896 53 3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba 4. GP8: Tunis-Bizerte 1,128 1,272 2,400 2,930 3,303 6,233 53 4. GP8: Tunis-Bizerte 5. MC27/MC28: Hammamet-Korba 1.194 1,346 2.540 3,101 3.496 6.597 53 5. MC27/MC28: Hammamet-Korba Subtotal Improvements: 6,151 6,936 13,087 15,977 18,014 33,991 53 Soutotal Amélioration:

Contingencies Imprévus

6. Price Escalation 6. Escalation de prix a) 32% on l.a) 526 594 1,120 1,366 1,543 2,909 53 a) 32% sur l.a) b) 24% on l.b) 47 52 99 122 135 257 53 b) 24% sur l.b) c) 32% on 1.c) 165 187 352 429 485 914 53 c) 32% sur l.c) d) 40.9% on 2. 314 355 669 816 922 1,738 53 d) 40.9% sur 2. e) 55.3% on 3. 390 440 830 1,013 1,143 2,156 53 e) 55.3% sur 3. f) 50% on 4. 564 636 1,200 1,465 1,652 3,117 53 f) 50% sur 4. g) 32% on 5. 382 431 813 992 1,119 2,111 53 g) 32% sur 5. Subtotal Price Escalation: 2,388 2,695 5,083 6,203 6,999 13,202 53 Soutotal Escalation de prix:

Physical Quantités

7. 10% on Subtotal Improvements 615 694 1.309 1,598 1,801 3,399 53 10% sur Soutotal Amélioration

9,154 10,325 19.979 23_778 26_814 50_592 53

1/ Contingencies for price escalation are estimated on expected price increases of 14% in 1976 and 12% in each of the years following thereafter./Lesimprévus pour escalation de prix sont estimés sur des hausses des prix de 14% en 1976 et 12% chaque année apres 1976. 2/ Assumed implementationscheduled for:/Programmed'exécution assumé: l.a), I.c) and 5.: Construction starts in early 1976 with 50% of works carried out each in 1976 and 1977/ l.a), l.c) et 5. : Commencementdes travaux début 1976 avec 50% des travaux achevés 1976 et 50% 1977. 1.b): Construction is carried out in 1976./l.b): Travaux achevés 100% 1976. 2.: Construction starts late 1976 with 5% of works carried out in 1976, 85% in 1977 and 10% in 1978./ 2.: Commencement des travaux fin 1976 avec 5% des travaux achevés 1976, 85% 1977 et 10% 1978. 3.: Construction starts in late 1977 with 10% of works carried out in 1977 and 90% in 1978./ 3.: Commencement des travaux fin 1977 avec 10% des travaux achevés 1977 et 90% 1978. 4.: Construction starts in 1977 with 50% of works carried out in 1977 and 50% in 1978./ 4.: Commencement des travaux 1977 avec 50% des travaux achevés 1977 et 50% 1978.

Source: Mission Estimate/Estimationde la Mission

December/DecembreI,75 Table/Tableau 12

APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER TUNISIA TUNISIE

Cost Estimates for Consultants' Services and Summary Cost Estimate

Estimations des coûts oour services de consultants et estimation sommaire

Consultants' Services/Services de Consultants

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Foreign Local Devises Total Local Devises Total Devises Studies/Etudes ------(DWODO)- - -______(%1S$'O00) ------

1. Review of Traneoort Study 51 120 171 133 312 445 70 Revue de olan de transport

2. Rural Roads Study 80 188 268 209 486 695 70 Etude des routes rurales

Subtotal Studies: 131 308 439 342 798 1,140 70 Soutotal études:

Contingencies/Imprévus

3. 38.6% Price Escalation 51 118 169 132 308 440 70 38.6% Escalation de prix

4. 10% Quantity Increases 13 31 44 34 80 114 70 105/ Quantités

Subtotal Contingencies: 64 149 213 166 388 554 70 Soutotal Imprévus:

Total: 195 457 652 508 1,186 1,694 70

Summary Cost Estimate/Estimation Pommaire

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Local Devises Total Local Devises Total ------(D'O00)------(US$000)------

A. Highway Improvement 6,151 6,936 13,087 15,977 18,014 33,991 Amélioration des routes

B. Studies/Etudes 131 308 439 342 798 1,140

Subtotal: 6,282 7,244 13,526 16,319 18,812 35,131 Soutotal:

Contingencies/Imprévus

C. Price Escalation 2,439 2,813 5,252 6,335 7,307 13,642 Escalation de vrix

D. Quantity Increases 628 725 1,353 1,632 1,881 3,513 Quantités

Subtotal: 3,067 3,538 6,605 7,967 9,188 17,155 Soutotal:

Total: 9,349 10,782 20,131 24,286 28,000 52,286

Source: Mission Estimate/Estimation de la Mission

December/Decembre 1975 APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND IIIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE Physical, Financial and Econonil Data cf Highway ImProvement Works

Information physique, financiere et econonique du programme des amériolations

2/ 3/ ------ER- /TR ------FYE-/TRI ------Total Financial Econonmic 'ith Value Without Value With Value Without Value Chainage Length 1/ CGut Cot cf Tine of Time cf Tine uf Tine Peint Longueu-r ---- ADT- TM- Coult - Cout 6 Avec valeur Sans valeur Avec valeur Sans valeur kilometrique total 1973 1979 1988 financier econonique de tenps de tenps de temps de tenps (kl) (kb) (D' 000) (D' 000)

1. GP1: Sousse-Sfax 1. GPI: Sousse-Sfax a) Sousse Byp.s. 128,500 158,040 32060 3,999 7678 17,186 ) 3,215 2,578.8 34.5 23.7 26.3 15.3 s) Susse dev 1stion MC82-Section17 3,580 4,0 1,2:,98 504 9,399 MC82-Troncon17 b) EI-Dje- Bypass 202,750 206,300 3,220 1,132 2,173 7,863 378 304.7 25.3 18.7 17.4 9.8 b) El-Djen deviatioc c) Sfax Bypass 264,500 272,570 8,020 1,658 3,014 6,248 1,009 796.8 25.7 20.6 12.8 5.0 c) Sfax deviation

2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez 16,000 54,218 38,218 2,117 3,177 5,842 1,500 1,205.6 42.0 35.7 36.9 30.7 2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjea

3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba 45,000 55,095 10,905 1,472 2,287 4,299 32.1 31.7 31.2 28.6 3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba 55,095 69,000 13,095 1,016 1,585 2,922 27.4 27.0 26.7 17.6 69,000 93,225 22,225 1,115 1,735 3,257 27.8 27.8 20.1 20.1 All Sections: 45,000 93,225 46,225 - - - 1,372.5 1,098.0 30.8 30.2 29.5 29.1 Tous troncons

4. GP8: Tunis-Bizerte -10,750 0,000 10,750 1,118 4,110 8,217 40.0 36.0 37.5 33.9 4. GP8: Tunis-BiEerte (PKO.000 - PR14.300) 14,300 23,740 9,440 2,956 4,313 8,463 32.8 24.0 20.0 19.1 (PRO.000 = RP14.300) 23,740 26,860 3,120 2,956 4,313 8,463 33.8 24.5 15.6 7.8 26,860 38,400 11,540 2,362 3,446 5,906 24.9 24.9 10.2 10.2 38,400 42,245 3,845 1,840 2,684 4,310 18.0 16.5 4.4 4,4 42,245 45,360 3,115 1,840 2,684 4,310 29.0 23.4 16.9 13.4 45,360 53,250 7,890 1,314 1,610 2,759 19.2 19.2 5.3 5.3 53,250 57,900 4,650 1,768 2,166 2,712 24.3 24.3 10.9 10.9 57,900 61,270 3,370 1,982 2,428 4,161 35.0 28.0 23.2 23.2 All Sections -10,750 61,270 57,720 - - - 2,190 1,796 34.5 30.5 28.7 27.1 Tous troncons

5. MC27/28-Hammamet-Korba 108,000 118,290 10,290 3,775 5,771 12,989 42.0 30.3 33.2 22.1 5, MC27/28-Hammamet-Korba 118,290 125,600 7,310 2,680 5,421 11,990 37.3 29 25,000 31,440 6,440 884 1,788 3,955 7 29.7 30.2 19.2 31,440 45,000 13,560 1,182 2,391 5,288 28.7 27.7 17.3 16.3 All Sections : 108,000 45,000 37,600 - - - 2,333 1,878.6 35.1 47.2 27.1 19.0 Tous troncons

Total/total: 224,238

1/ Average daily traffic/Trafic journalier cayen 2/ Economic return/Taux de rentabilite 3/ First year benefit/Taux de rentabilite immediate 4/ The difference between financial and economic ctsts is due te taxes and import duties/ La difference entre cout financier et cout ectnomique est basee sur impots et droits d'importation.

Sources: Etudes de Modernisation du Reseau Routier, 2 e Tranche, Recardet SAUTI-S.G.E.E. Modernisation des Routes, STUDI-BCEOM, October 1974 Modernisation des Routes, SETEC-SOTUETEC, February 1975

Mission Estimates/Estimation de la mission

December/Decembre 1975 Table/Tableau l4

APPRAISALOF EVAIUATIOND'UN

A SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEMEPROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Resultsof Sensitivity Analyses of Cost and Benefit 3treams Resultatsdes tests de sensibilité des couts et benefices

Assumptions Economic }1ypothèses Return (%)/ Total Costs of Total Taux de Couts totaux Benefices ConstructionY/ Benefits rentabilite de construction totaux

Best Estimate Best Estimate 33.2 Estimationmeilleure Estimation meilleure Best Estimate 15% Increase 36.8 Estimation meilleure Hausse de 15% Best Estimate 25% Increase 39.0 Estimationmeilleure Haussede 25% Best Estimate 15% Decrease 29.6 Estimation meilleure Baisse de 15% Best Estimate 25% Decrease 26.7 Estimationmeilleure Baisse de 25% 15% Increase Best Estimate 30.1 Haussede 15% Estimationmeilleure 25%Increase Best Estimate 28.3 Haussede 25% Estimationmeilleure 15% Decrease Best Estimate 37.4 Baissede 15% Estimationmeilleure 25% Decrease Best Estimate 4o.9 Baisse de 25% Estimationmeilleure

- Total of road improvementprogram consistingof Mornaghia-Medjez El Bab (GP5), Beja-Jendouba(GP6), Tunis-Bizerte (GP8), Hammamet-Korba (MC 27 and MC 28), El Jem, Sousseand Sfax bypasses./Le programmetotal des ameliorationscomprend Mornaghia-MedjezEl Bab (GP5),Beja-Jendouba (GP6), Tunis-Bizertel (GP8), Hammamet- Korba (MC 27 and MC 28), El Jem, Sousseand Sfax deviation.

Source: MissionEstimate/Estimation de la Mission December/Decembre1975 Table/Tableau 15

APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEMEPROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Average Vehicle Operating Costs 1

Coûts moyens d'explotation des vehicules (D 0.001/km)

Vehicles/Voitures

Trucks with loading Trucks with loading Capacity 4 3.5 t Capacity > 3.5 t Speed/Vitesse Passenger Cars Vans Camions a,ec charge Camions avec charge Trailers Buses (km/h) Voitures privées Camionettes utile 3.5 t utile 3.5 t Remorques Autobus

24 44.85 45.39 85.64 107.91 145.22 215.31

32 42.25 42.45 74.86 90.66 126.91 185.79

40 40.64 40.78 68.76 81.29 118.67 169.61

48 39.97 40.20 65.57 76.27 115.87 160.38

56 39.82 40.10 63.74 73.89 116.88 155.28

64 40.01 40.52 63.24 73.53 120.58 153.75

72 40.42 41.12 63.31 74.54 126.71 154.16

80 40.97 41.90 64.16 77.58 136.15 157.53

88 41.72 42.97 66.04 82.90 149.41 163.28

96 42.79 44.37 68,93 90.85 163.72 170.44

104 44.40 46.47 72.66 - - -

112 46.75 49.49 -

t/ On a level paved highway in good condition/Sur chaussée revêtue à niveau et en bonne condition.

2/ The typical vehicles are (i) mid-sized European passenger car with gasoline engine; (ii) mid-sized European van with diesel engine; (iii) American truck with diesel engine; and (iv) American and European buses with diesel engines/Les voitures typiques sont (i) voiture privée europeene avec dimension moyenne et moteur d'essence; (ii) camionette européene avec dimension moyenne et moteur du gas-oil; (iii) camion americaine avec moteur du gas-oil; et (iv) autobus americaines et européenes avec des moteurs du gas-oil.

Source: Ministry of Public Works/Ministère de l'Equipement

December/Decembre 1975 APPRAISAL OF EVALUATIOND' UN

A SECONDHIGHNWAY PROJECT DEUXIEMEPROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Ayerage Characteristics of Typical Vehicles

Caractéristiques moyennes des voitures typiques

1/ priC -/ 3/ Vehicle L3fe Tire Life Annual Vebicle Fuel Consumption -4/ Typialehice -priesx rec (Tsars) Durée de vte Riloletrage (Lirers/IQO km) Typical Vehicle - Fris Pris Nvmber of Tires Durée de vie de de pneu Kilométrage Consozmation de carburant Voiture typique (D) (D) Nombre des pneus voiture (Année) (lme 000) annuel de voiture (Litres/lOO ks)

Passenger car 1,230 11.5 4 10.0 50 18,000 8 Voiture privée

Van 1,520 15.3 4 8.0 50 25,000 10 Camionette

Truck (loading 3,127 36.6 6 6.5 60 65,000 21 Camion (avec charge capacity C.3.5 t) utile 3.5 t)

Truck (loading 6,177 73.0 6 6.0 60 70,000 31 Camion (avee charge cspacity>3.5 t) utile 3.5 t)

Trailer 6,619 66.1 14 6.0 60 60,000 48 Remorque

Bus 13,767 80.5 6 6.0 60 60,000 36 Autobus

l/ The typical vehicles are (i) mid-sized European passenger car with gasoline engine; (ii) mid-sized European van with diesel engine; (iii) American trucks vith diesel engines; (iv) American and European buses with diesel engines/Les voitures typiques sont (i) voiture privée européene avec dimension moyenne et moteur d'essence; (ii) casionette européene avec dimension moyenne et moteur du gas-oil; (iii) camions americaines avec moteurs du gas-oil, et (iv) autobus americatnes et européenes avec moteurs du gas-oil.

2/ Average 1973 price excluding tires and taxes/1973 prix moyen sans pneu et hors taxes.

3/ Average 1973 price excluding tires/1973 prix moyen sans pneus.

4/ On a level, paved highway in good condition, at average speeds of 80 lm/h for passenger cars, 64 km/h for vans, 56 km/h for trucks, 40 km/h for trailers, and 64 km/h for buses /Sur chaussée revêtue a niveau et en bonne condition avec de la vitesse moyenne de 80 km/h pour voitures privées, 64 km/h pour camionettes, 56 km/h pour camions, 40 km/h pour remorques, et 64 km/h pour autobus

Source: Ministry of Public Works and Mission Estimates/Ministère de l'Equipement et Estimation de la Mission

December/Decembre 1975

t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~< -' ANNEXA Page 1

APPRAISAL OF

A SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

TUNISIA

TransportRegulations, 1968 Transport Survey and Proposed Rural Roads Program

A. Main Improvementsin RegulationsProposed by MTC

1. Replacementof the existing five truck categoriesof public transport,which limit the type of products transportedand the zone in which trucks can be used, by two categories,i.e. one category with no zonal restrictionsand another one with zonal restrictions;

abolishmentof regulationsrestricting owners of light trucks to the transport of their own goods;

abolishmentof regulationsrestricting the use of trailers by farmers to a distance of 35 km; and

provisionof transportof persons by small vehicles in or to remote areas, which presently lack such a facility (this provision may require a Governmentsubsidy).

B. Concept and Scope of the Updating of the 1968 Transport Survey

2. The main purpose of this updating is to strengthen transportco- ordinationand planning. In addition, important changes of national policies and strategiesaffec,ting the transport system since 1970, will be incorporated. The updatingwill concentrateon the main issues and include the following:

(i) a coordinated effort on the part of the various Government agencies concernedwith transportmatters to collect all available data and reports on transport in Tunisia;

(ii) the preparationof forecasts of total demand for freight and passenger transport in Tunisia;

(iii) the preparation of estimates of future movements of freignt and passengers by mode based on the above item (ii) and a structure and level of prices and costs for transportservices;

(iv) the review of compensationpolicies and payments by Government for services of various modes of transportare required to provide as a result of an imposed public duty; ANNEX A Page 2

(v) the establishmentof coordinationpolicies and measures to ensure sound coordinationand cooperationamong the various public organizations involved in transportmatters including clearly defined lines of authority;

(vi) the introductionof a transport investmentanalysis system, making available to all levels involved in investmentde- cisions the methods and criteria required for rational allocation of resources and the determinationof investment priorities in the transportsector;

(vii) the identificationof specific problems to be analyzed at a later date and related technicalassistance requireements; and

(viii) the identificationof training requirementsin the various sub-sectors.

3. The proposed project would provide about 70 man-months of consulting services over a period of two years to assist MTC staff in the updating of the 1968 Transport Survey. The MTC staff would consist of a minimum of four experts to be trained on the job in the areas of transport planning and eco- nomics and to be assembled as soon as possible after the conmencement of the proposed project. The staff would be expected to be able te continue their tasks upon departure of the consultants.

C. Concept and Scope of the Rural Roads Program

4. The main purpose of this program, which will consist of a pilot project (Phase I) and, possibly, a follow-up project (Phase II), is to identify and prepare rural roads for improvementor construction in areas where their inadequacy is an obstacle to agriculturaldevelopment.

5. The total of about 110 man-months of consulting services provided for under the proposed highway improvement project is to assist the Ministry of Public Work. in preparing the pilot project and, upon satisfactorypreparation of this project and with the Bank's approval, the follow-up project. The pilot project would cover six zones, believed to be representativeof the entire country from a climatic, environmental,socio-economic, etc. point of view.

6. The satisfactorypreparation of the pilot project will depend on appropriatecoordination and cooperation between the Ministry of Public Works and various other ministries such as the Ministry of Planning, the Ministry of Agriculture,the Ministry of Transport and Communications,and the Ministry of Interior. For instance, it will be necessary to examine and coordinate the rural roads program with national development:plans prepared 'bythe Ministry of Planning, sectoral plans prepared by the Ministry of Agri- culture and, possibly, other plans by other government organizations. To facilitatethis coordinationand cooperation.the Government:will organize a high level CoordinationCommittee consisting of representativesof the various concerned ministries. ANNEXA Page 3

7. In addition, in preparing the rural roads program, the Government shall review nationil aendsectoral policies and strategies relating to:

M() the distributionof potential benefits for an improved rural roads infrastructure(e.g., through taxation measures);

(il) the establishment of agro-based industries;

(iii) resettlement ("programme de regroupement de la population"); and

(iv) land tenure.

December 1975

f ANNEX B Page 1

APPRAISAL OF

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

TUNISIA

TransportationProjects PreviouslyFinanced by the Bank

1. Loan S2-TUN, 1969, Republic of Tunisia, Highways, US$0.8 million. This project consistedof engineeringstudies of highways included in the first highway project. It has been satisfactorilycompleted.

2. Loan 746-TUN, 1971, Republic of Tunisia, Highways, US$24.0 million. Major componentsof this project are:

(i) constructionand improvementof 274 km of primary and secondary roads;

(ii) resurfacingand rehabilitationof 1,920 km of paved roads;

(iii) reconstructionof 51 bridges and culverts;

(iv) provision of consultantsto assist in the reorganizaitionand strengtheningof maintenance operations;

(v) provision of consultants to study the possible improvementof 350 km of roads;

(vi) provision of consultantsto assist in institutional:Lmprovements;

(vii) provision of consultantsto study the system of road user taxation; and

(viii) refinancingof Highway Engineering Studies, Ln. S2-TUN.

The project originally included the Tunis-Turkihighway as a three-lanefacility.. A study showed that to accommodate the unanticipatedrapid increase in traffic a four-lanehighway was necessary. In view of the increase in total project costs there were insufficientfunds for the enhanced facility, the three-lane road between Tunis and Turki has thereforebeen excluded from t:hisproject with Board approval and is expected to be financed by the Kuwait Fund.

3. Loan 606/Credit 150-TUN, 1969, SNCFT, Railways, US$17.0 million. Major components of this project are:

(i) 352 km track renewal of four main lines and branch lines and branch lines in the southern mining area;

(ii) purchase of locomotives, rolling stock and spare parts; ANNEX B Page 2

(iii) improvementof workshops; and

(iv) provisionof consultantsto assist in generalmanagement, cost accounting,and the managementof locomotivesand rolling stock, stations and workshops.

The project was delayed by about two years due to the disastrous floods of 1969 and 1971 and shortages of funds resulting from slow payments by the railway's principal customer (SFAX/GAFSAPhosphate Co.) prior to 1973, when the Governmentassumed the debts of the phosphate company. All procurement for the project is completedand deliveriesof remainingrolling stock are expected shortly. Relaying of track is substantiallycompleted and the project should be completedby the end of December 1975.

4. Loan 724-TUN, 1971, Societe Tunisiennede l'Electriciteet du Gaz, Gas Pipeline, US$7.5 million. Major components of this project are:

(i) procurement and installation of 4.1 km of 12-3/4 inch pipe to transportwet gas from the SITEP production center (El Borma) to a compressionand treatmentplant;

(ii) procurementand installationof approximately3,300 h.p. of gas engine driven compressorsincluding necessary controls and ancillaryfacilities;

(iii) procurementand installationof facilitiesto remove condens- able gasoline fractions from the gas;

(iv) procurement.andinstallation of ancillary facilitiessuch as operatingbuildings and employee housing, at the compression and treatmentcenter;

(v) procurementand installationof 292 km of 10-3/4 inch trans- mission pipeline (El Borma-Cabes);and

(vi) procurementand installationof sales laterals from the transmissionline to industriesin the neighborhoodof Gabes.

The project has been satisfactorilycompleted.

5. Loan 380-TUN,1964, Republicof Tunisia, Port, US$7.0 million. Major componentsof this project are:

(i) dredginganç refillingat La Goulette;

(ii) resitingof a fishing channel, relocationof the Eastern stretch of the Tunis-La Goulette road, and the construction of two bridges over the new fishing channel; ANNEX B Page 3

(iii) constructionof two additionalberths for general cargo at La Goulette;

(iv) constructionof 9.7 km of three and four-laneroads and the pavement of 140,000 square meters of open storage facilities inside the port of La Goulette;

(v) provision of drainage,water mains, fire hydrants, sewers and electrical distributioncables inside the port of La Goulette;

(vi) constructionof seven transit sheds and an administration building inside the port of La Goulette; and

(vii) provision of consultantsto design and supervise the construction of the project, to perform traffic studies, to assist in the cargo handling and customs procedures, to prepare port charges structure and rates, to prepare cost- ing and financial systems, and to train accounting and statisticalstaff of the port office.

The project has been satisfactorilycompleted.

6. Loan 573-TUN, 1969, Office des Ports Nationaux Tunisiens, Port, US$8.5 million. Major componentsof this project are:

(i) dredging to increase the depth and width in entrance channels and approaches and along aide bulk facilitiesat La Goulette, Sfax, and Bizerte, to permit access of larger bulk oil and ore carriers;

(ii) provision of a small suction dredger and attendant tug for maintenance of ports managed by the Office des Ports Nationaux Tunisiens (OPNT);

(iii) provision of cargo handling equipment of Tunis-La Goulette and Sfax;

(iv) restoration of the island breakwater at Bizerte to insure adequate protection inside the harbor;

(v) provision of a new bulk-grain berth and storage installation on the south side of La Goulette harbor;

(vi) training of OPNT staff in accountingand financial management and provision of accounting consultants; and

(vii) provision of engineering consultants to assist OPNT in the execution of the project.

The project has been satisfactorilycompleted.

December 1975 ANNEX C

APPRAISAL OF

A SECOND HIGHWAYPROJECT

TUNISIA

Highway Improvements

1. Bypasses on GP1. The primary road GP1 extends from Tunis south- ward to the Libyan Border and is the main north-southlink in the east of Tunisia. Two-lane bypasses with 7.00 m carriagewayand 3.00 m wide shoulders will be constructedfor the urban centers of Sousse (33.3 km) El-Djem (3.2 km) and Sfax (8.0 km). The design speed is 100 km/h.

2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez-el-BabRoad (38.2 km). The road section from Mornaghia to Medjez-el-Babon GP5 is the continuationof the section Tunis-Mornaghia(Exit Tunis West) which is presently constructedto four-lane standards and financed under the First Highway Project. The road runs through rolling terrain and is presently geometricallyand structurallyinadequate for the traffic it carries. The narrow pavement (5.00-6.00m) has been damaged by truck traffic beyond the recourse of normal maintenance. The carriageway will be strengthenedand the road will have a width of 6.00 m over its entire length with 3.00 m wide shoulders. The design speed is 100 km/h.

3. GP6: Beja-JendoubaRoad (46.2 km). The existing road runs through rolling terrain,has a weak and narrow carriagewayand sub-standardsight distances. The road will be improved to a 7.00 m wide facility,with strengthened pavement and 3.00 m wide shoulders. Over a length of 4.4 km, the alignment will be changed to improve sight distances. The design speed is 100 km/h.

4. GP8: Tunis-BizerteRoad (57.7 km). The road consists of two parts: a section of 10.1 km from Ariana, north of Tunis, to the junction with MC31 and a 46.6 km long section from this junction to Bizerte. The road traverses rolling and flat terrain, has two dangerous curves and generally inadequate sight distances. About 6 km have a carriagewaywidth of 5 m only. The existing road crosses the Medjerda River by an ancient bridge which is structurally inadequatefor heavy traffic. The road will be upgraded to a modern two-lane highway with a 7.00 m wide carriageway,3.00 m wide shoulders,with improved geometric characteristicsand riding surface and a new Medjerda River bridge thus providinga reliable link between Tunis and Bizerte. The design speed is 100 km/h.

5. MC28/MC27: Hammamet-KorbaRoad (37.7 km). The existing road runs along the southeasternshore of the Cap Bon peninsula through flat terrain. It starts at the junctionwith GP1, west of Hammamet, passes through the tourist centers of Hammamet,Nabeul and Beni Khiar to Korba. The widths of the existing carriagewayvaries between 5.00 and 6.00 m. The road will be upgraded to a modern highway with a 7.00 m carriagevayand 3.00 m wide shoulders and will bypass Hammamet, Nabeul and Beni Khiar. The design speed is 80 km/h.

December -1975 .i.;'D

APPRAISAL OF

A 3ECOND HIGHW.iAYPROJECT

TUN ISIA

Price EscalationFactors for Project 3lements

Factor 0 1. Sousse Bypass

Constructionstarts early 1976 with 50e of works carried out each in 1976 and 1977 32.0 2. El-Djem Bypass

Constructionis carried out during 1976 2h.0 3. Sfax Bypass

Construction starts early 1976 with 50% of works carried out each in 1976 and 1977 32.0 h. Mornaghra-I4edjez-el-BabRoad

Constructionstarts late 1976 with 10$ of works carried out in 1976, 80% in 1977 and 10% in 1978 40.9

,. Beja-Jendouba Road

Constructionstarts late 1977 Twith 10% of works carried out in 1977 and 90p in 1978 55.53

6. Tunis-Bizerte Road

Construction starts in early 1977 with h0%of works carried out in 1977, 50p in 1978 and 10% in 1979 0 .0 7. Hammamet-Korba Road

Constructionstarts early 1976 with 50% carriedout each in 1976 and 1977 32.0

8. Consulting Services

3tudies start mid-1976 with 30% of works carried out in 1976, 50',Z in 1977 and 20% in 1978 36.8

Source: Mission Estimates

December/Decembre1975 8097910~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~I7 96 97178 1999

7. 990660~~072.7197îo7o97.o9.0.o..,97 70920929792099.o67 . 4 î . . 3. 4. 1. 2. 1. 4. 1.12 3 4.~ ~ * '

2. LdI . ~t ______-

2.07 99211.10 S 97 .6

Sf- B~~~... 2.07o ......

3.03 id/.9~9993 77, 9.967

3.05 7, .00 1010.

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5. 078, 909. 6.923. .0779729 381279029e 99 C00700,997 -……

0.92 79 .172.99 Le cc9, B.9k7

7.020200 8 9.2..

4.02 78q -d0910 f 77,326

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4.3f d992070.1r91,M 7, 909999-090900 0,.

5.09 010-71292 90 12910081299500 7,09090. 26 -…4------ANNEK F

APPRAISALOF EVALUATIOND'UN A SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT D_UXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Estimated Schedule of Disbursements

Calendrier estimatif des décaissements

IBRD Fiscal Cumulative Disbursements at Year and Quarter end of Quarter

Exercice et trimestre de Décaissements cumules aux fins l'exercise de la BIRD de trimestre (uS$tooo)

1975/76 March 31, 1976 June 30, 1976 2,000

1976/77

September 30, 1976 4,000 December 31,t 1976 5,000 March 31, 1977 7,200 June 30, 1977 9,400 1977/78

September 30, 1977 12,600 December 31, 1977 14,800 March 31, 1978 16,900 June 30, 1978 19,000

1978/79

September 30, 1978 20,500 December 31; 1978 22,100 March 31, 1979 23,700 June 30, 1979 25,300

1979/80

September 30, 1979 27.800 December 31, 1979 28;000

Source: Mission estimates/Estimation de la Mission

December/Decembre1975 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT TUNISIA ORGANIZATION OF THE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS AND HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION

MINISTER

UNDERSECOFl OR FS

OTHER DIRECTORATES PUBIC WORKS

ADMINISTRATIVE SPECIAL STUDIES SUBtDIVISOVIES,M l

HEADOUARTER DIVISIONS

ORGANIZ AT[ION AND DESIGN CONSTRUCTION LABORATORY EQUIPMENT METHODS

FILL DIVISIONS g I I II I I TUNlS IZRESOUSSE SFAX KEFGAE

18 FIELD SUBDIVISIONS

December/DeCembre 1975 Wor,d B-nk-IS19

IBRD 11734 AUGUST1975 8 ;° TUNISIA SECONDHGHWAY PROJECT

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