CONFIDENTIAL— NGO use only No copy, forward or sale © INSO 2011 Issue 90 REPORT 16‐31 January 2012 Index COUNTRY SUMMARY Central Region 1-6 From a conflict perspective, this period cal structures and operant realities for the 7-11 Northern Region marked a break in the 5 year trend that not- local security apparatus. Some areas, in Western Region 12-14 ed considerable year on year growth in particular Panjshir, however observed the AOG activity levels for the month of Janu- actual wholesale physical withdrawal of Eastern Region 15-18 ary. While some years exhibited greater ISAF elements from the province while increases than others, for example there others marked the first stages of redeploy- Southern Region 19-22 was a 105% increase between 2008 and ment. These types of actions should not 23 ANSO Info Page 2009, the 5 year average has been 57% in be unexpected when viewed through the the year to year comparative attack vol- lens of ‘withdrawal’, the eventual end state umes for January. However, As visually that the transition process is leading to- HIGHLIGHTS represented in the graph on page 14, there wards, as they will likely become more was a 27% decrease this year when com- common as 2014 approaches. This is rein- Lower than average AOG pared to January 2011. This is not too sur- forced by the announcement this period of attack volume prising considering the less than average the withdrawal of French forces ahead of Above average suicide volume noted in December, though a sin- the perceived schedule; demonstrating that attack rate gle specific causative factor is unlikely. It both that this process is fluid and develop- is more probable that a variety of factors ing its own momentum as well as subject to Various areas are in play at present beyond the standard the influence of external factors (be they ‘transitioned’ this period seasonal impacts. political or strategic) beyond the state and needs of the actual conflict. NGO staff fatality in He- Despite the downturn in conventional tac- rat tics noted above, the volume of suicide The first NGO incident reported from the attacks recorded in the month of January West this period also involved the first were at their highest rate since 2010, with staff fatality this year. A female staff mem- the South continuing to bear the brunt of ber was targeted and killed by small arms ANSO is supported by these attacks. In counterpoint, Kabul has fire while en route to her workplace. How- continued a rather lengthy period of calm, ever, at present this incident is assessed as with little of note being reported from both being the result of an interpersonal issue the city and the province as a whole. In rather than related to her employment. addition, this month also noted the contin- Criminality also struck the NGO commu- uing high tempo of security force opera- nity in other ways, as seen in the attempted tions, one of the factors likely impacting use of the ‘slashed tire scheme’ in Kabul. AOG activity levels. While common enough in the capital, the The process of transition is ongoing, with targeting of a vehicle departing a bank loca- various areas identified as part of the se- tion represents a new element in this estab- cond tranche completing their official lished tactic and further reinforces the need handovers this period. As was the case in to brief staff members on the appropriate the first round, this is mostly a ceremonial ‘actions on’ when faced with such circum- event resulting in little change to the physi- stances in order to minimise asset loss. ANSO is a project of the International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO), a registered charity in England & Wales no.1140276 and a company limited by guarantee no.7496737 THE ANSO REPORT Page 1 C ENTRAL REGION NGO Incidents ABUL Year to Date 2 KABUL K 50 This Report Period 1 A case of irregular ANP behav- 40 iour and money extortion from The province remained devoid of 30 NGO expats at a checkpoint in AOG escalations and even 20 PD 10, Kabul City, perturbed an ANSF-IMF activity related to the 10 political conflict was low. Out of otherwise very calm period in Ka- 0 bul. The incident took place at a 32 incidents recorded this cycle, ‘Ring of Steel’ checkpoint in just 5 related to ANSF-IMF ar- Qalae Fatullah in the late evening rests of AOG suspects in Kabul KABUL AOG KABUL Crime hours on the 20th. A group of City (Share Naw in PD 1, Compa- NGO expat workers were found ny Area in PD 5, Puli Charkhi in PD 12 and Charaye Nawruz in math of Ashura in reaction to the particularly without their passports and negative public exposure it received after the stopped on the side of the road PD 16) and the final one in Pa- ghman (Chenghar). On another attack. This could reflect a motivation to in- until their driver paid a small vestigate the attack and/or to restore IEA amount of cash to the police. A occasion, the police force identi- fied and seized a Toyota Corolla leadership’s image as a force able to control its similar situation occurred at the own area of operations, which could in turn same checkpoint two days earlier containing a load of explosive materiel abandoned on the side of represent a confidence-building measure (if to another organization, yet the not an explicit requirement by the other side) NGO protagonists opted for the the road on the highway in Surobi (Tonale Khaki). It is probable for the upcoming political dialogue between transparent solution of having IMF/US and the IEA. In the past, IEA used their passports delivered by a se- that the explosives were bound for Kabul City. spectacular attacks in Kabul on several occa- cond car, upon which they were sions to reject allegations of their involvement allowed to leave. Whilst it is not a Henceforth, the cycle also pro- in exactly the same dialogue which they seem legal requirement for expatriates longed the period without AOG to have endorsed since the last couple of to carry their passports, the ANP attacks in the capital. Considering weeks now. Yet, from a different angle and clearly took advantage of the situ- the Abdul Fazel strike during the given the absence of explicit AOG messaging ation to extort a small bribe in the Ashura commemoration, a case on the above, it could also be that local IEA first case. However, yielding to apart since the attack likely origi- structures simply lack an effective leadership as such requests creates a precedent nated outside domestic AOG cir- well as boots & supplies on the ground, in par- which NGOs should take great cles, the most recent record of ticular following the concerted ANSF-IMF pains to avoid in the future. activity authored and claimed by campaign in the fall while the on-set of the A variant of the ‘slash tyre & grab’ established AOG date back to the winter further impacted the logistics. Of note, scheme, a well-established TTP in Traditional Loya Jirga period there is a stream of credible reporting which Kabul, was experienced by staff (mid-November) and further to suggests that the IEA have been busy appoint- members of an international inter- the SVBIED attack on the IMF ing new leaders tasked to change the status governmental agency with a pro- ‘Rhino’ bus on the Darulaman quo. The latest nominations would include a file similar to an NGO on the 25th Road in the end of October. The new shadow governor for Kabul City, his mili- in PD 2, Jade Asmayi & Haji Ab- speculations naturally abound as tary subordinate, and a couple of shadow dis- dul Rahman Area during a drive to the reasons of the current lull. trict governors in the rural districts along the from Azizi Bank in PD 2. The The obvious factors encompass main access routes towards Kabul. Among staff members effectively identi- AOG deliberate prioritization of these, the prominence of IEA loyalists from fied the attempt and mitigated the other areas of operations where the northern districts of Kabul (Shakardara, threat. Yet, the case also con- the attacks also make more differ- Qarabagh) and Kapisa is noteworthy. At this firmed that similar schemes have ence in the military sense (such as stage, it is too early to generalize as to the relia- become a frequent occurrence Kandahar & Paktika), although it bility of the information and the eventual im- targeting visitors to the banks in is also possible that the IEA lead- pact of such nominations on AOG motivation the city center. ership enforced a temporary ban & capacity to resume activity in the capital. on spectacular attacks in the after- THE ANSO REPORT Page 2 NGO Incidents KAPISA K APISA Year to Date 0 50 This Report Period 0 40 In the short span of time since the late December incident, Tagab of the Tagab shooting. 30 witnessed a second ANA-on-IMF The operation sparked a series of 20 shooting on the 20th. Two days engagements with AOG which 10 later, ANSF with IMF support resulted in 30 documented AOG 0 initiated a comprehensive clear-up casualties (including 18 killed) operation in Alasay which extend- against 3 on the side of ANSF and ed until the end of the cycle. nil for IMF. However, the casual- KAPISA AOG KAPISA Crime Both developments marked high ty account also included 4 killed casualty numbers, including on and 17 injured civilians, mostly incidents in January 2012 nearly doubled the the civilian side in Alasay.