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OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN and CENTRAL ASIA a Threat Assessment OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA A Threat Assessment May 2012 OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: A THREAT ASSESSMENT Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the UNODC Afghan Opiate Trade Project of the Studies and Threat Analysis Section (STAS), Division for Policy Analysis and Public Affairs (DPA), in the framework of UNODC Trends Monitoring and Analysis Programme, with the collaboration of the UNODC Country Office in Afghanistan and the UNODC Regional Office for Central Asia. UNODC is grateful to the national and international institutions which shared their knowledge and data with the report team including, in particular, the Afghan Border Police, the Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan, the Ministry of Counter Narcotics of Afghanistan, the United States Drug Enforcement Administration, the Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Centre, the Customs Service of Tajikistan, the Drug Control Agency of Tajikistan and the State Service on Drug Control of Kyrgyzstan. Acknowledgements also go to the staff of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and the United Nations Department of Safety and Security in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Report Team Research and report preparation: Hakan Demirbüken (Programme management officer, Afghan Opiate Trade Project, STAS) Hayder Mili (Research expert, Afghan Opiate Trade Project, STAS) Yekaterina Spassova (National research officer, Afghan Opiate Trade Project) Hamid Azizi (National research officer, Afghan Opiate Trade Project) Sayed Jalal Pashtoon (National research officer, Afghan Opiate Trade Project) Mapping support: Deniz Mermerci (STAS) Odil Kurbanov (National strategic analyst, UNODC Regional Office for Central Asia) Desktop publishing and mapping support: Suzanne Kunnen (STAS) Kristina Kuttnig (STAS) Supervision: Thibault Le Pichon (Chief, STAS), Sandeep Chawla (Director, DPA) The preparation of this report benefited from the financial contributions of the United States of America, Germany and Turkey. Photos: © UNODC, Alessandro Scotti Disclaimer This report has not been formally edited. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of UNODC or contributory organizations and neither do they imply any endorsement. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNODC concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: A THREAT ASSESSMENT CONTENTS CONTENTS .............................................................................................................. 1 GLOSSARY............................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................ 9 I. OPIATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN............................ 17 Consumption in northern Afghanistan............................................................17 Consumption volumes..........................................................................................18 What is the source of supply?.........................................................................20 Heroin manufacture.............................................................................................20 Opium production ................................................................................................22 Stockpiles, a potential supply source...................................................................24 Trafficking.......................................................................................................25 Is opium trafficked to northern Afghanistan from other regions? ......................25 What is the source of the heroin trafficked to northern Afghanistan?...............29 Internal flows........................................................................................................31 Seizures in northern Afghanistan.........................................................................33 Profits and beneficiaries .................................................................................35 Profits ...................................................................................................................35 Beneficiaries .........................................................................................................36 Insurgency in northern Afghanistan................................................................39 II. TRAFFICKING FROM NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL ASIA.................................................................................. 45 Breaching the frontline...................................................................................45 Turkmenistan........................................................................................................49 1 OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: A THREAT ASSESSMENT Uzbekistan............................................................................................................53 Tajikistan ..............................................................................................................58 To Kyrgyzstan .......................................................................................................72 To Kazakhstan.......................................................................................................77 A general decreasing trend? ................................................................................82 Profits and beneficiaries .................................................................................85 Profits ...................................................................................................................85 Beneficiaries .........................................................................................................86 RESPONSE............................................................................................................. 91 The way forward.............................................................................................91 ANNEX .................................................................................................................. 95 I. Methodology ...............................................................................................95 II. Uzbekistan Airways route network .............................................................96 III. Tajikistan international air routes..............................................................97 IV. Reported railway seizures in Uzbekistan, 2011 ..........................................98 V. Selected opium seizures in Afghanistan, 2010‐2011....................................99 VI. Selected heroin seizures in Afghanistan, 2010‐2011 ................................100 2 OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: A THREAT ASSESSMENT GLOSSARY ADB Asian Development Bank AGE Anti-Government Elements AOTP Afghan Opiate Trade Project AREU Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit BCP Border Crossing Point BOMCA Border Management Programme for Central Asia CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CARICC Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Centre CJTF Criminal Justice Task Force CNPA Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization DCA Drug Control Agency EU European Union EurAsEc Eurasian Economic Community FDCS Federal Drug Control Service of the Russian Federation GBAO Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast 3 OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: A THREAT ASSESSMENT GDP Gross Domestic Product ISAF International Security Assistance Force IMU Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan ISAF International Security Assistance Force OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ROCA Regional Office for Central Asia SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SSDC State Service on Drug Control (Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan) TIR Transports Internationaux Routiers (International Road Transport) UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNDSS United Nations Department of Safety and Security UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific USAID United States Agency for International Development 4 OPIATE FLOWS THROUGH NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: A THREAT ASSESSMENT INTRODUCTION This report describes the illicit trade of opiates along the Northern route from northern Afghanistan to Central Asia up to the borders of the Russian Federation. It has been organized in three sections. The first section begins by addressing the dynamics of trafficking in northern Afghanistan, including the groups involved, the volumes of opiate flows and opiate consumption, as well as the share that southern Afghanistan production takes in Northern route trafficking. A second section explores trafficking dynamics through Central Asia, including the methods involved and the groups
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