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BICC Globaler Militarisierungsindex 2017 www.ssoar.info Global Militarisation Index 2020 Mutschler, Max M.; Bales, Marius Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Sonstiges / other Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Mutschler, M. M., & Bales, M. (2020). Global Militarisation Index 2020. Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC). https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-71220-4 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer CC BY-NC-ND Lizenz This document is made available under a CC BY-NC-ND Licence (Namensnennung-Nicht-kommerziell-Keine Bearbeitung) zur (Attribution-Non Comercial-NoDerivatives). For more Information Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den CC-Lizenzen finden see: Sie hier: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/deed.de GLOBALER MILITARISIERUNGSINDEX 2017 MAX M. MUTSCHLER \ BICC GLOBAL MILITARISATION INDEX Max Mutschler, Marius Bales \ BICC GLOBAL MILITARISATION INDEX 2020 \ MAX MUTSCHLER, MARIUS BALES SUMMARY Every year, BICC’s Global Militarisation Index (GMI) presents the relative weight and importance of a country’s military apparatus in relation to its soci- ety as a whole. The GMI 2020 covers 151 states and is based on the latest available figures (in most cases data for 2019). The index project is financially supported by Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. In this year’s GMI ranking, the ten countries that provided the military with particularly large amounts of resources in relation to other areas of soci- ety are Israel, Armenia, Oman, Bahrain, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Brunei, Russia, Kuwait and Jordan. The authors Max Mutschler and Marius Bales put the regional focus of the GMI 2020 on Europe (eastern Europe/ NATO and EU-countries) as well as the Asia– Pacific region and look in-depth into the role of the United States there. Russia (ranked 8th) continues to sustain one of the largest military forces in the world. The European NATO countries, especially Baltic and eastern European countries, are continuing to arm themselves, pointing to ongoing tensions with Russia. The still smouldering conflict between Armenia (ranked 2nd) and Azerbaijan (ranked 16th) over the Nagorno-Karabakh region continues to keep militarisation in the South Caucasus at a very high level. One look at the Top 10 shows that all countries in the Middle East are highly militarised by global comparison—only four coun- tries are not from this region. The strategic rivalry between China (position 98) and the United States (position 27) for influence in the Asia–Pacific region intensi- fies the mutual threat perceptions and contributes to an arms build-up there. Finally, the GMI 2020 looks at the link between militarisation and health security. A comparison with the Global Health Security (GHS) Index shows that countries with an average level of militarisation perform best in health security overall. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the public budgets of many coun- tries are likely to come under severe pressure in the coming years as a result of new borrowing. This may also affect militarisation. Should the economic perfor- mance drop proportionally more than military spending, this would increase the level of militarisation. But it is also possible that prevention against future threats to health security will be given precedence over defence policy, and that signifi- cant cuts in military spending will be introduced. Which of the two scenarios will play out is likely to depend on the political priorities countries will choose. 2 \ BICC \ GLOBAL MILITARISATION INDEX 2020 \ MAX MUTSCHLER, MARIUS BALES CONTENT Summary 2 The methodology of the Global Militarisation Index (GMI) 4 BICC GMI 2020 5 The Top 10 5 Focus on regional militarisation 7 Eastern Europe 7 NATO and EU-countries 8 Asia-Pacific and the role of the United States 11 Militarisation and health security 13 GMI map of the world 16 Militarisation Index Ranking 18 Imprint 19 BICC \ 3 \ THE METHODOLOGY OF THE GLOBAL MILITARISATION INDEX (GMI) The Global Militarisation Index (gmi) depicts The GMI is based on data from the Stock- the relative weight and importance of the military holm Peace Research Institute (sipri), the apparatus of one state in relation to its society International Monetary Fund (imf), the World as a whole. For this, the GMI records a Health Organization (who), the International number of indicators to represent the Institute for Strategic Studies (iiss) and BICC. level of militarisation of a country: It shows the levels of militarisation of more \ the comparison of military expenditures with than 150 states since 1990. BICC provides yearly its gross domestic product (GDP) and its health updates. As soon as new data is available, BICC expenditure (as share of its GDP); corrects the GMI values retroactively for previous \ the contrast between the total number of years (corrected data on gmi.bicc.de). This may (para)military forces and the number of have the effect that current ranks may differ physicians and the overall population; in comparison to previous GMI publications. \ the ratio of the number of heavy weapons In order to increase the compatibility between systems available and the number of the over- different indicators and to prevent extreme values all population. from creating distortions when normalising data, in a first step every indicator has been represented in a logarithm with the factor 10. second, all data GMI indicators and weighing factors have been normalised using the formula x=(y-min)/ (max-min), with min and max representing, Category / Indicator Factor respectively, the lowest and the highest value of the logarithm. In a third step, every indicator Expenditures has been weighted in accordance to a subjective factor, reflecting the relative importance attrib- Military expenditures as percentage of GDP 5 uted to it by BICC researchers (see Figure). In Military expenditures order to calculate the final score, the weighted in relation to health spending 3 indicators have been added up and then normalised one last time on a scale Personnel ranging from 0 to 1,000. The GMI conducts a detailed analysis of Military and paramilitary personnel specific regional or national developments. in relation to population. * 4 By doing so, BICC wants to contribute to the Military reserves in relation to population 2 debate on militarisation and point to the often contradictory distribution of resources. Military and paramilitary personnel in relation to physicians 2 Weapons Heavy weapons in relation to population 4 * \ The main criterion for coding an organisational entity as either military or paramilitary is that the forces in question are under the direct control of the government in addition to being armed, uniformed and garrisoned. GLOBAL MILITARISATION INDEX 2020 \ MAX MUTSCHLER, MARIUS BALES BICC GMI 2020 Militarisation is a complex phenomenon. Regional In the following text, the GMI 2020 presents and internal conflicts drive global militarisation. But and analyses selected trends in militarisation. Most the resources available to society as a whole as well of the data evaluated relate to the year 2019. as the different threat perceptions also play a role in countries’ decisions on how much to invest in their national military. The Global Militarisation Index (GMI) reflects the outcome of these processes and determines the relative weight of the military appa- ratus of a country in relation to its society as a whole. The Top 10 At the same time, the GMI deliberately distances itself from the normative assumption that a high The ten counties with the highest levels of mili- allocation of resources for the benefit of the military tarisation in 2019 are Israel, Armenia, Oman, Bahrain, sector always represents an overemphasis on the Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Brunei, Russia, Kuwait and military—with negative consequences for the overall Jordan. These countries allocate particularly high development of society in the countries affected, and levels of resources to the military in comparison to for international security. The security policy require- other areas of society. Methodological changes to the ments for a country like Israel (position 1), for exam- GMI \ > page 6 have not been without consequences ple, are completely different from those of Mauritius for the Top 10. Oman (position 3, previously 27), (position 145). Bahrain (position 4, previously 18) and Saudi-Arabia (position 6, previously 28), for example, are classified Still, some normative statements about militari- as significantly more militarised with the new meth- sation can be made based on the findings of the GMI. odology than before. All three countries do not have It should be noted, however, that the abundance of military reservists and, with the adjusted weighing factors that may affect the militarisation of a country of this factor, they have moved up some positions. suggests that one should look closely at and critically examine these statements. This also applies to the con- There are some countries, for which we do not nection between militarisation and health, which is have any reliable data to analyse the distribution of the focus of this year’s GMI \ > page 13. A comparison of resources between the military and overall society. the GMI with the Global Health Security (GHS) Index1, For some countries, however, particularly Syria, developed by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), the North Korea, Eritrea or the United Arab Emirates, it Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU) in can be assumed based on earlier surveys that they cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit have a very high level of militarisation. The United (EIU) shows that the group of countries with a rather States (position 27) that still spends more money on average degree of militarisation shows the best results its military than any other country (2019: US $718.7 with regard to health security. billion, share of gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.4 per cent), 2 is not in the Top 10 due to its strong econ- omy \ > page 18.
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