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Quarterly Launch Report Commercial Space Transportation QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT Featuring the launch results from the 1st quarter 2001 and forecasts for the 2nd and 3rd quarter 2001 Quarterly Report Topic: Selecting a Launch Vehicle: What Factors Do Commercial Satellite Customers Consider? United States Department of Transportation • Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation 800 Independence Ave. SW Room 331 Washington, D.C. 20591 SECOND QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 1 Introduction The Second Quarter 2001 Quarterly Launch Report features launch results from the first quarter of 2001 (January-March 2001) and launch forecasts for the second quarter of 2001 (April-June 2001) and the third quarter of 2001 (July-September 2001). This report contains information on worldwide commercial, civil, and military orbital space launch events. Projected launches have been identified from open sources, including industry references, company manifests, periodicals, and government sources. Projected launches are subject to change. This report highlights commercial launch activities, classifying commercial launches as one or more of the following: • Internationally competed launch events (i.e., launch opportunities considered available in principle to competitors in the international launch services market) • Any launches licensed by the Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation of the Federal Aviation Administration under U.S. Code Title 49, Section 701, Subsection 9 (previously known as the Commercial Space Launch Act) Contents First Quarter 2001 Highlights 2 Vehicle Use 3 Total Launch Events By Country 4 Commercial Launch Events By Country 4 Commercial vs. Non-commercial Launch Events 5 First Quarter 2001 Launch Successes vs. Failures 5 Payload Use 6 Payload Mass Class 6 Commercial Launch Trends 7 Appendix A: First Quarter 2001 Launch Events A-1 Appendix B: Second Quarter 2001 Projected Launch Events B-1 Appendix C: Third Quarter 2001 Projected Launch Events C-1 Quarterly Report Topic: Selecting a Launch Vehicle: What Factors Do Commercial Satellite Customers Consider? QRT-1 Cover: Pacific Ocean, March 18, 2001 - A Sea Launch Zenit 3SL lifts off from the Odyssey launch platform carrying the Boeing-built XM Rock satellite, which it successfully placed into geosynchronous transfer orbit. Courtesy of Sea Launch. SECOND QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 2 First Quarter 2001 Highlights X-33 and X-34 Cancelled A major launch industry event in the first quarter of 2001 was the cancellation of the X-33 and X-34 RLV demonstration vehicles. NASA refocused RLV technology efforts on the new Space Launch Initiative, a program intended to support the development of technologies that will enable the development of RLVs at a later date. EELV Developments Proceed Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin continue to develop their Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELV). Boeing expects to launch its first EELV (Delta 4) for the U.S. Air Force in May 2002. In the first quarter of 2001, Boeing completed the first of a planned series of hot-fire tests of the Delta 4’s 298,000-kilogram thrust Rocketdyne RS-68 cryogenic engine. The 15-second test, conducted at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Mississippi, will lead to full duration burns mimicking the first-stage ascent of the vehicle on its maiden flight. Lockheed Martin is completing assembly of its first EELV (Atlas 5 AV-001) at its Denver, Colorado, factory. The company says that the initial launch of the Atlas 5 will be from Pad 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in early 2002. New Australian Launch Site Proposed The Asia Pacific Space Centre (APSC), a Russian-Australian consortium, has proposed a commercial satellite launch site to be based on Christmas Island. This site will be used for commercial launches of the Aurora launch vehicle ( a Soyuz-derivative). Three- and four-stage Aurora models are expected to place payloads of up to 12 metric tons into low-Earth orbit and two metric tons into geosynchronous transfer orbit. Russian Air Launched Vehicle Announced The Russian Air Launch company says that its new launch vehicle, air-launched from an An-124 Ruslan aircraft, will begin operation in 2003. According to Air Launch, the “Air Launch Space Transportation System” will carry payloads of up to four metric tons to 2,000- to 10,000-kilometer circular or elliptical orbits. Launches may take place from any site with a three-kilometer-long runway. SECOND QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 3 Vehicle Use (January 2001 – September 2001) Figure 1: First Quarter 2001 Figure 2: Second Quarter 2001 Figure 3: Third Quarter 2001 Total Launch Vehicle Total Projected Total Projected Use Launch Vehicle Use Launch Vehicle Use UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES 1 3 Delta 2 Delta 2 Athena 1 2 1 Shuttle Pegasus Atlas 1 & 2 2 Titan 4 1 Shuttle 1 Delta 2 4 Pegasus 1 CHINA Taurus 1 1 Long March 1 Titan 2 1 Shuttle Titan 4 2 CHINA EUROPE Long March 1 CHINA Long March 1 Ariane 4 2 EUROPE 1 Ariane 5 Ariane 4 1 EUROPE Ariane 4 1 Ariane 5 1 MULTINATIONAL Ariane 5 3 Zenit 3SL 1 RUSSIA MULTINATIONAL INDIA RUSSIA Zenit 3SL 1 PSLV 1 Soyuz 2 RUSSIA JAPAN 1 START Cosmos 1 H2A 1 Cyclone 1 MULTINATIONAL 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Proton 2 Zenit 3SL 1 Proton M 1 RUSSIA Shtil 1 Proton 1 Soyuz 3 Soyuz 2 Zenit 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total = 12 Total = 21 Total = 22 Figures 1-3 show the total number of orbital launches (commercial and government) of each launch vehicle that occurred in the first quarter of 2001 and that are projected for the second and third quarters of 2001. These launches are grouped by the country in which the primary vehicle manufacturer is based. Exceptions to this grouping are launches performed by Sea Launch, which are designated as multinational. SECOND QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 4 Total Launch Events by Country (January 2001 – September 2001) Figure 4: First Quarter 2001 Figure 5: Second Quarter 2001 Figure 6: Third Quarter 2001 Total Launch Events Total Projected Total Projected by Country Launch Events by Launch Events by Country Country USA Russia Russia 34% (4) 12% (3) USA 25% (3) Japan USA 33% (7) 5% (1) 50% (11) Multinational Russia 5% (1) 47% (10) Ukraine Multinational 5% (1) 8% (1) China China 5% (1) Europe 8% (1) Europe 18% (4) Europe 25% (3) Multinational 10% (2) China 5% (1) 5% (1) Total = 12 Total = 21 Total = 22 Figures 4-6 show all orbital launch events (commercial and government) that occurred in the first quarter of 2001 and that are projected for the second and third quarters of 2001. Commercial Launch Events by Country (January 2001 – September 2001) Figure 7: First Quarter 2001 Figure 8: Second Quarter 2001 Figure 9: Third Quarter 2001 Commercial Launch Projected Projected Events by Country Commercial Launch Commercial Launch Events by Country Events by Country USA Russia Russia USA Russia 14% (1) 20% (1) 17% (1) 17% (1) 29% (2) China 14% (1) Multinational 17% (1) Multinational Multinational Europe 14% (1) 20% (1) 60% (3) Europe Europe 49% (3) 29% (2) Total = 5 Total = 7 Total = 6 Figures 7-9 show all commercial orbital launch events that occurred in the first quarter of 2001 and that are projected for the second and third quarters of 2001. SECOND QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 5 Commercial vs. Non-commercial Launch Events (January 2001 – September 2001) Figure 10: First Quarter 2001 Figure 11: Second Quarter 2001 Figure 12: Third Quarter 2001 Commercial vs. Commercial vs. Non- Commercial vs. Non-commercial commercial Non-commercial Launch Events Projected Launch Projected Launch Events Events Non-commercial Commercial Non-commercial Commercial Non-commercial 67%. (14) 58% (7) 42% (5) 33% (7) 73% (16) Commercial 27% (6) Total = 12 Total = 21 Total = 22 Figures 10-12 show commercial vs. non-commercial orbital launch events that occurred in the first quarter of 2001 and that are projected for the second and third quarters of 2001. First Quarter 2001 Launch Successes vs. Failures (January 2001 – March 2001) Figure 13: Total Launch Successes vs. Failures Successful Launches 100% (12) Total = 12 Figure 13 shows successful vs. failed orbital launch events that occurred in the first quarter of 2001. SECOND QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 6 Payload Use (January 2001 – September 2001) Figure 14: First Quarter 2001 Figure 15: Second Quarter 2001 Figure 16: Third Quarter 2001 Payload Use Projected Payload Projected Payload Use Use Science Communications 7% (1) Communications 48% (15) Science Communications Science Navigation 50% (7) 18% (5) 17% (5) 19% (6) 7% (1) Mir Remote 7% (1) Sensing R & D 7% (2) 11% (3) Remote Navigation Sensing 3% (1) 21% (6) ISS Meteorological Classified 22% (3) 7% (2) Navigation 11% (3) ISS R & D ISS 4% (1) R & D 11% (3) 7% (1) 13% (4) Meteorological 3% (1) 7% (2) Total = 14 Total = 31 Total = 28 Figures 14-16 show total payload use (commercial and government), actual for the first quarter of 2001 and projected for the second and third quarters of 2001. The total number of payloads launched does not equal the total number of launches due to multi-manifesting, i.e., the launching of more than one payload by a single launch vehicle. Payload Mass Class (January 2001 – September 2001) Figure 17: First Quarter 2001 Figure 18: Second Quarter 2001 Figure 19: Third Quarter 2001 Payload Mass Class Projected Payload Projected Payload Mass Class Mass Class Heavy Heavy Unknown Heavy Small 29% (4) 6% (2) 4% (1) 14% (2) Small 11% (3) 18% (5) Small Intermediate Intermediate 39% (12) 20% (6) 25% (7) Medium 29% (4) Large Micro 6% (2) 14% (4) Intermediate 7% (1) Large 7% (2) Large 21% (3) Medium Micro 16% (5) Medium 13% (4) 21% (6) Total = 14 Total = 31 Total = 28 Figures 17-19 show total payloads by mass class (commercial and government), actual for the first quarter of 2001 and projected for the second and third quarters of 2001.
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