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Combined Report B.Qxd FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts May 2005 Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 011405.indd 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts About the Office of Commercial Space Transportation and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee The Federal Aviation Administration’s industry. Established in 1985, COMSTAC Office of Commercial Space Transportation is made up of senior executives from the (FAA/AST) licenses and regulates U.S. com- U.S. commercial space transportation and mercial space launch and reentry activity for satellite industries, space-related state gov- the Department of Transportation as author- ernment officials, and other space profes- ized by Executive Order 12465 (Commercial sionals. Expendable Launch Vehicle Activities) and 49 United States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter The primary goals of COMSTAC are to: 701 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). AST’s mission is to license and regu- § Evaluate economic, technological and late commercial launch and reentry opera- institutional issues relating to the U.S. tions to protect public health and safety, the commercial space transportation safety of property, and the national security industry; and foreign policy interests of the United States. Chapter 701 and the 2004 U.S. § Provide a forum for the discussion of Space Transportation Policy also direct the issues involving the relationship between Department of Transportation to encourage, industry and government requirements; facilitate, and promote commercial launches and and reentries. § Make recommendations to the The Commercial Space Transportation Administrator on issues and approaches Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) pro- for Federal policies and programs vides information, advice, and recommen- regarding the industry. dations to the Administrator of the Federal Additional information concerning AST Aviation Administration on matters relating and COMSTAC can be found on AST’s to the U.S. commercial space transportation web site, http://ast.faa.gov. Cover: Art by Phil Smith (2005) i ii Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts Table of Contents Executive Summary . .1 Introduction . .3 Characteristics of the Commercial Space Transportation Market . .3 About the COMSTAC 2005 Commercial Geosynchronous Launch Demand Model . .3 About the FAA NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast . .3 2005 Combined Satellite and Launch Forecast . .3 COMSTAC 2005 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model . .7 Executive Summary . .7 Introduction . .9 Background . .9 Methodology . .10 COMSTAC Demand Projection vs. Actual Launches Realized . .11 Factors That Affect Launch Realization . .11 2004 Space Industry Performance on Launch Demand . .12 Projecting Actual Launches . .12 2005 Near-Term Demand Model . .14 Satellite Launch Mass Classes . .14 Comparison to International Comprehensive Inputs . .15 Commercial GSO Satellite Trends . .16 Industry Metrics . .16 Future Trends . .17 Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Demand Forecasts . .18 Launch Vehicle Demand . .19 Launch Assurance Agreements . .19 Factors That May Affect Future Demand . .20 Summary . .21 Appendix A. Use of the COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand Model . .23 Demand Model Defined . .23 Appendix B. Supplemental Questionnaire . .24 Appendix C. Letter from the Associate Administrator . .26 2005 Commercial GSO Mission Model Update Instructions . .27 COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Report Feedback Form . .28 Appendix D. Historical Launches . .29 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits . .33 Executive Summary . .33 Introduction . .34 NGSO Satellite Systems . .35 International Science and Other Payloads . .35 Digital Audio Radio Services . .37 Military . .37 Market Demand Scenarios . .37 Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites . .38 DigitalGlobe . .38 ImageSat International . .40 InfoTerra GmbH . .40 Northrop Grumman . .40 ORBIMAGE . .41 iii Radarsat International . .41 RapidEye AG . .42 Space Imaging . .42 TransOrbital . .42 Market Demand Scenarios . .43 “Little LEO” Telecommunications Systems . .43 Recent Developments . .43 Market Demand Scenarios . .44 “Big LEO” and Mobile Satellite Services . .45 Globalstar . .45 Iridium . .46 ICO . .46 Market Demand Scenarios . .47 Future Markets . .47 Risk Factors That Affect Satellite and Launch Demand . .48 Methodology . .50 Vehicle Sizes and Orbits . .51 Satellite and Launch Forecast . .52 Baseline Forecast . ..
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