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Hvilke Faktorer Driver Kursutviklingen På Oslo Børs? Av A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A.; Ødegaard, Bernt Arne Working Paper Hvilke faktorer driver kursutviklingen på Oslo Børs? Working Paper, No. 2007/8 Provided in Cooperation with: Norges Bank, Oslo Suggested Citation: Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A.; Ødegaard, Bernt Arne (2007) : Hvilke faktorer driver kursutviklingen på Oslo Børs?, Working Paper, No. 2007/8, ISBN 978-82-7553-403-1, Norges Bank, Oslo, http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2498266 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/209884 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no www.econstor.eu ANO 2007/8 Oslo 12. desember 2007 Working Paper Forskningsavdelingen Hvilke faktorer driver kursutviklingen på Oslo Børs? av Randi Næs, Johannes Skjeltorp og Bernt Arne Ødegaard Working papers fra Norges Bank kan bestilles over e-post: [email protected] eller ved henvendelse til: Norges Bank, Abonnementsservice Postboks 1179 Sentrum 0107 Oslo Telefon 22 31 63 83, Telefaks 22 41 31 05 Fra 1999 og senere er publikasjonene tilgjengelige som pdf-filer på www.norges-bank.no, under “Publikasjoner”. Working papers inneholder forskningsarbeider og utredninger som vanligvis ikke har fått sin endelige form. Hensikten er blant annet at forfatteren kan motta kommentarer fra kolleger og andre interesserte. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene står for forfatternes regning. Working papers from Norges Bank can be ordered by e-mail: [email protected] or from Norges Bank, Subscription service, P.O.Box. 1179 Sentrum N-0107Oslo, Norway. Tel. +47 22 31 63 83, Fax. +47 22 41 31 05 Working papers from 1999 onwards are available as pdf-files on the bank’s web site: www.norges-bank.no, under “Publications”. Norges Bank’s working papers present research projects and reports (not usually in their final form) and are intended inter alia to enable the author to benefit from the comments of colleagues and other interested parties. Views and conclusions expressed in working papers are the responsibility of the authors alone. ISSN 0801-2504 (printed) 1502-8143 (online) ISBN 978-82-7553-402-4 (trykt), 978-82-7553-403-1 (online) Hvilke faktorer driver kursutviklingen paOslo Brs? Randi Ns∗ Norges Bank Johannes A. Skjeltorpy Norges Bank Bernt Arne degaard Handelshyskolen BI 12. desember 2007 JEL kode : G12; E44 Nøkkelord: Verdsettingsmodeller, Flerfaktormodeller, Generalized Method of Moments ∗Takk til Sigbjrn Atle Berg, LoranChollete, Bent Vale, Sindre Weme og deltagere paFST sitt Verdipapir- markedsforum for nyttige kommentarer. yKontaktinformasjon. Adresse: Norges Bank, Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo. Tlf.: +47 22 31 67 40. Telefaks: +47 22 42 40 62. E-post: [email protected] Sammendrag I denne rapporten analyserer vi avkastningsmnsteret paOslo Brs over perioden 1980- 2006. Formaletmed rapporten er aanalysere drivkreftene bak kursutviklingen i det norske aksjemarkedet. Et viktig siktemalmed analysen er dessuten aunderske i hvilken grad hovedresultatene fra tilsvarende analyser av andre lands aksjemarkeder ogsagjelder for det norske markedet. Innenfor nanslitteraturen er det vanlig aforklare aksjeavkastning ut fra erfaktormod- eller der investorer krever kompensasjon for avre eksponert mot markedsrisiko samt fak- torer som pavirker framtidige konsum- og investeringsmuligheter. Teorien gir oss imidlertid ikke identiteten til hvilke risiki som er systematiske. De maderfor estimeres empirisk. Hov- edresultatene for andre lands aksjemarkeder er at investorer krever kompensasjon for a investere i smaselskaper, selskaper med hy bokfrt verdi relativt til markedsverdi (sakalte \value" selskaper) og selskaper som nylig har hatt hy avkastning. Det er usikkert hva de underliggende drivkreftene for disse selskapsspesi kke karakteristikkene er, men enkelte studier antyder at de er knyttet til makrokonomiske forhold som konjunktursituasjon og konkursrisiko. Direkte sammenhenger mellom aksjeavkastning og utviklingen i makrovari- able har imidlertid vrt vanskelig adokumentere. Varanalyse viser at avkastningen paOslo Brs kan forklares rimelig bra med en erfak- tormodell bestaendeav markedsindeksen, en strrelsesindeks og en likviditetsindeks. Som forventet gir endringer i oljeprisen signi kante utslag i kontantstrmmene til de este indus- trisektorene pabrsen. Olje er imidlertid ikke en priset risikofaktor i det norske markedet. I likhet med studier i andre land nner vi famakrovariable som prises i markedet. Vi doku- menterer likevel enkelte signi kante risikopremier for variablene in asjon, pengemengde, industriproduksjon og arbeidsledighet i de tilfellene der vi forsker aprise portefljer som er sortert pastrrelse og likviditet. Det er en signi kant sammenheng mellom de este indus- triportefljene og de nominelle variablene in asjon og pengemengde; portefljeavkastningen faller ved uforventede kninger i in asjon og ker ved uforventede kninger i pengemeng- den. Siden vi nner svake tegn paat disse variablene er priset i markedet, er det grunn til atro at hovede ekten paavkastningen fra disse variablene kommer gjennom selskapenes kontantstrmmer. De dokumenterte sammenhengene mellom aksjeavkastning og variable som ofte knyttes til konjunktursituasjonen er viktige. I en utvidet analyse kan vi bruke disse variablene til apredikere forventet avkastning og risikopremier i aksjemarkedet. Det faktum at vi nner fasammenhenger mellom aksjeavkastning og innovasjoner i makrovariable som br vre relevante for kursutviklingen kan tyde paat aksjemarkedet er en ledende indikator for makrokonomien heller enn omvendt. En videre analyse av slike sammenhenger br ogsa vre interessant. Innhold 1 Innledning 1 2 Oslo Børs 1980-2006 4 2.1 Organisering av markedsplassen . .4 2.2 Sektorsammensetning . .5 2.3 Markedsstrrelse og aktivitet . .5 2.4 Lnnsomhet . 11 3 Empirisk analyse av drivkrefter for avkastningen 12 3.1 Enkle portefljesorteringer basert paCAPM anomalier . 12 3.1.1 Selskapsstrrelse . 13 3.1.2 Bokfrt verdi relativt til markedsverdi . 13 3.1.3 Momentum . 14 3.1.4 Likviditet (transaksjonskostnader) . 16 3.2 Metode for estimering av faktormodeller . 19 3.2.1 GMM estimering innenfor et SDF rammeverk . 20 3.3 Kapitalverdimodellen . 21 3.3.1 CAPM basert paen markedsindeks for Oslo Brs . 22 3.3.2 CAPM basert painternasjonale markedsindekser . 26 3.4 Flerfaktormodeller basert paempirisk motiverte faktorer . 27 3.5 Hva forklarer empirisk motiverte faktorer? . 31 3.5.1 Risikobaserte forklaringer . 31 3.5.2 Andre forklaringer . 33 3.6 Flerfaktormodeller basert pamakrovariable . 35 3.6.1 Relevante makrovariable . 35 3.6.2 Oljepris . 37 3.6.3 Andre makrovariable . 40 4 Oppsummering 45 A Litteraturoversikt 48 B Beskrivelse av variable 51 C Konstruksjon av risikofaktorer 52 C.1 Fama French faktorene . 52 C.2 Momentum . 52 C.3 Statistikk for risikofaktorer paOslo Brs . 54 D Detaljerte estimeringsresultater - porteføljesorteringer 56 E Konstruksjon av innovasjoner i makrovariablene 59 F Tester med makrovariable uten markedsporteføljen 60 1 Innledning Denne rapporten inngarsom en del Norges Banks arbeid med oppflging og analyse av utviklin- gen i verdipapirmarkedene. Formaletmed rapporten eraanalysere drivkreftene bak kursutviklin- gen i det norske aksjemarkedet. Hensikten med Norges Banks oppflging av aksjemarkedene er akunne oppdage ubalanser og spenninger som i neste omgang kan true stabiliteten i det - nansielle systemet. Det er altsafrst og fremst faktorer som pavirker hele eller store deler av markedet som er av interesse. En analyse av hvilke faktorer som driver kursene paOslo Brs kan utformes pa ere mater. Den enkleste matenvil vre aestimere en regresjonsmodell av typen, M 1 1 n n (1) Rt = β ft + :: + β ft + t der M er en tidsserie med avkastningstall for hovedindeksen paOslo Brs, 'ene er koesienter Rt β som viser den estimerte innvirkningen paindeksavkastningen av et sett av n makrovariable f og er et feilledd. Det nnes ere slike studier av Oslo Brs. Studiene viser typisk at det er en positiv sammenheng mellom avkastningen paOslo Brs og oljeprisen samt at avkastningen i det norske markedet samvarierer med avkastningen paandre lands aksjeindekser. Et problem med denne typen analyser er at de kun baserer seg patidsserieegenskapene til den aggregerte markedsavkastningen. Dette innebrer at man utelater informasjon om avkastningen pakryss av selskaper og at man ikke tar hensyn til at selskaps- og
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