The National Friday, May 1, 2009 www.thenational.ae 03 review th

thethe big idea week the tangled web !!!  The criminalisation of journalism Air France Flight 438, from Paris, was to land at Mexico City at 6pm on Saturday, April 18. Five hours before landing, the captain’s voice announced that US authorities had prohibited the plane from flying over US territory. The explanation: among the passengers aboard was a person who was not welcome in the United States for reasons of national security. A few minutes later, the same voice told the startled passengers that the plane was heading for Fort-de-France, Martinique, because the detour the plan needed to take to reach its destination was too long and the fuel was insufficient. The stopover in that French territory in the Caribbean would be only to refuel the plane. Exhaustion was becoming an issue among the passengers. But the central question, spoken in undertones, was the identity of the “terrorist” passenger, because if the “gringos” say it, “it must be because he must be a terrorist”. Looking at those of us sitting in the back of the plane, two passen- gers said no terrorist could be there because “nobody there looks like a Muslim”. Again in the air, and preparing for another four hours of travel, a man who identified himself as the co-pilot came to me. Trying to look discreet, he asked if I was “Mr Calvo Ospina”. I told him yes. “The captain wants to sleep, that’s why I came here,” he said, and he invited me to accompany him to the back of the plane. There, he told me that I was the person “responsible” for the detour.

Hernando Calvo Ospina Progreso Weekly progreso-weekly.com

Supporters of the and the , members of the March 14 coalition, at a rally in the suburb of Ashrafieh. Joseph Barrak / AFP Swine flu’s ticket to ride

If there was ever a graphic illustration of how global interconnected- ness affects public health, it’s the swine flu affair. Wherever it start- ed, the current crop of cases seems related to Mexico, either as the epicentre or via travellers. Four US states have cases. Those not on the Mexican border are related to travel to Mexico. Kansas, New York City... the suspect cases in secondary school teachers and students Stumbling blocs in Auckland, New Zealand just returned from Mexico. And France has two suspect cases also just returned from Mexico, as does Spain. We’ve discussed the problem of infectious disease on aeroplanes several times here. Surprisingly there are few documented cases in the medical literature (there’s a good review by Mangili and Gen- dreau in the March 2005 Lancet). There is at least one flu outbreak As ’s closely contested elections approach, it is clear that the in 1979 caused by turning off the ventilation system in a plane full of military recruits while it sat on the runway (Moser et al, American era of high-stakes, zero-sum politics is over, Elias Muhanna writes Journal of Epidemiology, July 1979). Here’s the abstract: A jet airliner with 54 persons aboard was delayed on the ground In five weeks, Lebanon will hold its facing the Lebanese electorate, the great lengths to project an image of ulate that Hizbollah will try to tempt for three hours because of engine failure during a take-off attempt. much-anticipated parliamentary political furniture is being shuffled unity and commitment to the prin- Hariri to join a March 8 government Most passengers stayed on the aeroplane during the de- elections. Squaring off are two po- discreetly behind the scenes. ciples of the , the by offering him the premiership, lay. Within 72 hours, 72 per cent of the passengers litical coalitions that have spent the Between the years 2005 and 2008, cracks in the coalition are becoming although most believe that it will became ill with symptoms of cough, fever, better part of four years at each oth- Lebanon was the portrait of a so- ever more apparent. This was evi- be a different Sunni billionaire, fatigue, headache, sore throat and ers’ throats. In one corner stands ciety in transformation. The car denced most recently by the Najib Miqati, who will be tapped, myalgia. One passenger, the ap- March 14, a pro-American group of bomb that killed Rafik Hariri on leader Walid Jumblatt’s diatribe due to his excellent relations with parent index case, was ill on the Sunni, Christian and Druze parties Valentine’s Day 2005 set in motion against his Sunni and Christian al- both Damascus and Riyadh. On aeroplane, and the clinical attack that emerged from the crucible of an astonishing saga that saw the lies, which was captured on a cam- the other hand, if March 14 wins rate among the others varied the “Cedar Revolution” following expulsion of the Syrian Army from era phone and leaked to the press. and refuses to give the opposition with the amount of time spent the assassination of the billionaire Lebanon, a war between Israel and In it, he railed against the ineptitude a veto, it is a virtual certainty that aboard. Virus antigenically simi- prime minister Rafik Hariri in early Hizbollah, and a power vacuum at of ’s Sunni fighters, and Hizbollah and Amal will boycott the lar to A/Texas/1/77 (H3N2) was isolated from 2005. Opposing it is a curious yet the highest levels of government. referred to Maronite Christians as a cabinet, leading to the same kind of eight of 31 passengers cultured, and 20 of 22 ill durable alliance known informally For three years, the lines of political “bad breed”. Many have speculated crisis that paralysed the government persons tested had serologic evidence of infection as March 8, which unites Lebanon’s affiliation were etched in stone. To that Jumblatt – a key member of from November 2006 until the Doha with this virus. The aeroplane ventilation system was two main Shiite parties (Hizbollah cast a vote, carry a flag, or attend a March 14 who leads a bloc of 16 seats Agreement. inoperative during the delay and this may account for the and Amal) with the Free Patriotic demonstration was – for many Leba- in parliament – will drop out of the The final factor that will influence high attack rate. Movement (FPM), a predominantly nese – to participate in a struggle for coalition following the elections. the post-election order will be the Christian but officially secularist self-determination. By contrast, March 8 has remained response of the United States in the Effect Measure party led by General . In May 2008, an agreement bro- relatively unified and on-message, event of a March 8 victory. While scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure The country’s highways have been kered in Doha put an end to 20 largely because its binding principle the Europeans have said that they festooned with campaign advertise- months of opposition protests, a – opposition to the Siniora govern- will work with either side, the US ments for months. On a recent drive downtown sit-in, and violent clashes ment – still obtains, whereas the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, Kilgore man faces ordeal on from Byblos to Beirut, I counted 89 between Hizbollah and pro-govern- anti-Syrian sentiment that united has signalled that America would hunting trip billboards for the FPM alone, an av- ment forces. The terms included the March 14 coalition has weak- have to review its military aid com- erage of one every quarter mile. The granting a cabinet veto to the op- ened over time. And while the op- mitments to Lebanon should Hiz- A Kilgore man’s hunting trip to Pakistan turned into an ordeal when parties have gone all out – taking the position, hammering out a new position has also witnessed internal bollah emerge as a member of the he was almost arrested along the way, but he wouldn’t trade the ex- campaign beyond print and TV to electoral law, forming a transitional squabbling over seats – between parliamentary majority. This is perience for anything and says he would return in a heartbeat. Facebook and Twitter – to energise cabinet and electing Lebanese Army Michel Aoun and the Amal leader precisely why the opposition has Dee Headley, whose company BASA Resources Inc. paid for his trip their constituents by casting these General as the new – there have been no sig- stressed its preference for a power- to hunt blue sheep and Himalayan ibex, was on his way to Pakistan elections as “fateful” and “epoch- President of Lebanon. nificant fissures. On the other hand, sharing arrangement, and also why when he was detained by officials in Dubai. making”. Lebanon’s very identity is The polarised rhetoric that has disagreements among the loyalists Hizbollah has publicly stated that The problem: they apparently believed Headley might be an Amer- at stake, they argue: its orientation characterised the last four years has have already led to the resignation of it will not attempt to increase the ican assassin. and strategic alignment in a polar- not really faded since Doha, but the one prominent March 14 figure (the size of its own parliamentary share, Dubai was scheduled as a stop on his aeroplane ride to Islamabad. ised region. Obama administration’s new Mid- Democratic Renewal Movement placing the onus on its allies to push Headley said his travel agent apparently neglected to get the proper Despite the hype, however, signs dle East policy has forced Lebanese leader Nassib Lahoud), and are the opposition over the top. Indeed, documentation for his Browning 300 Winchester single mag rifle. increasingly suggest that the actual parties to adjust expectations. March likely to result in the replacement of for March 8 to win, the Change and “That’s my best gun,” Headley said. With the state-of-the-art scope, outcome of the elections will be far 14 leaders have quieted their attacks other outspoken standard bearers of Reform Bloc led by Aoun will have to the weapon is worth a pretty penny. less significant than the manoeu- on Damascus as Bashar al Assad has the Cedar Revolution by members of take more seats than Hizbollah and Headley was also sporting a set of walkie-talkies, a satellite tele- vring of the post-election period been courted by American and Euro- established old-guard families with Amal combined. Casting itself as a phone, a spotting scope (like a telescope) and a really good set of – when the cabinet will be assem- pean diplomats. Meanwhile, Syria’s local followings. minority partner in a much larger binoculars. bled, a prime minister chosen and peace negotiations with Israel seem Most polls predict a very close race, coalition and calling for a national As Dubai officials grilled him for hours, Headley says became more the veto powers of the opposition to have prompted Hizbollah to dis- unlikely to give either coalition a unity government are strategies and more worried he might end up in a foreign jail. decided. The months after the play greater openness to the idea of convincing mandate. Because of designed to mitigate an aggressive “I was met by two uniformed people who nearly arrested me,” election seem likely to bring the integrating its weapons into a cred- the way in which electoral districts American posture toward Lebanon Headley said. “They said I didn’t have the proper documents, which break-up of existing alliances, the ible national defence. Processes are drawn, the vast majority of seats if the opposition prevails. I didn’t know I needed to have.” creation of new ones and a redraw- of engagement and reconciliation (about 100 out of 128) will witness These countermeasures, how- He narrowly escaped arrest but he didn’t get away with his gun and ing of the Lebanese political map. within Arab ranks and between the little competition. The remaining ever, will severely constrain the accoutrements. This is a product both of changing United States and Iran have weak- swing seats fall largely in Christian- governing abilities of the winning “I had to leave everything there – except my satellite phone – be- regional dynamics as well as grow- ened the centripetal forces that majority districts; these electoral side. Power-sharing will help insu- cause there was no time for the paperwork without missing my ing fractiousness among Lebanon’s helped produce two distinct politi- battles will determine which coali- late Lebanon from civil unrest (if whole trip,” he explained. political elite, who have begun to cal coalitions in Lebanon. tion reaches a 65-seat majority. Ana- March 14 wins) or from a disrup- Headley promptly called the outfitter in Pakistan and he got to sacrifice coalition unity infavour of March 14 in particular has looked lysts are divided as to who has the tion in economic ties with the West work on borrowing a gun in Islamabad – a difficult task. safeguarding their own parties’ par- increasingly disorganised of late. upper hand, but there is a consen- (if March 8 wins), but it seems likely “There’s not a lot of guns there. Believe it or not, private citizens liamentary representation. While its leadership has gone to sus that the margin of victory will be to provide yet another pretence for don’t have a lot of guns; people with money and government offi- The campaign thus far has seen a narrow one. both coalitions to obstruct or avoid cials or people connected to government officials have the guns,” intense competition over seats be- What will a victory mean for the any far-reaching reform efforts. Headley said. tween coalition allies, defections winning coalition? It depends, first The systemic problems that cripple from one coalition to another, elec- of all, on which side wins. Hassan Lebanese politics – sectarianism, Brenda Brown toral horse-trading between politi- Nasrallah, the charismatic secre- widespread corruption, massive Kilgore News Herald cal opponents, resignations, public The actual outcome tary-general of Hizbollah, has called public debt – are unlikely to be ad- kilgorenewsherald.com spats, and an overall muddying of for the creation of a national unity dressed without a strong executive the once-pristine image of two mon- of the elections government after June 7, vowing to mandate. The weakening of coali- olithic parliamentary blocs that de- will be far less grant March 14 a veto on all cabinet tion ties may augur the end of an fined themselves as diametrically significant than the decisions should the opposition win era defined by the rivalry between opposed in orientation and outlook. the elections. March 14, for its part, March 14 and March 8 – but merely What seems certain is that the era manoeuvring of the has refused to reciprocate, and Saad reshuffling the existing sectarian of high-stakes, zero-sum politics post-election period Hariri has gone further to say that he alliances will do little more than in Lebanon is over – at least for the will not participate in a cabinet led prolong Lebanon’s paralysis. time being – having been replaced by March 8. by the mundane triangulations of Some have suggested that Hariri’s Elias Muhanna writes the Lebanese consociational compromise. Even stance is a ploy to energise his base affairs blog qifanabki.com. He is a Illustrations by as party leaders speak gravely of fate- by creating a do-or-die atmosphere PhD candidate in Arabic and Islamic Sarah Lazarovic ful elections and historic decisions surrounding the polls. Others spec- Studies at Harvard University. for The National