DOCSLIB.ORG

Super-Typhoon NEOGURI Hit Japan in July 2014 Dr

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Super-Typhoon NEOGURI Hit Japan in July 2014 Dr Super-typhoon NEOGURI hit Japan in July 2014 Dr. Susanne Haeseler; updated: 11 July 2014 Introduction At the beginning of July 2014, the first super-typhoon of the year 2014, NEOGURI, devel- oped across the western North Pacific. The typhoon first moved northwestward towards the southern Ryukyu Islands, a chain of Japanese islands between the Japanese main islands and Taiwan (Fig. 1 to 3). On its way it reached maximum sustained 1-minute wind speeds of about 250 km/h. After crossing the island chain and weakening gradually, NEOGURI turned to northeastern directions. Downgraded to a tropical storm it crossed Kyushu and then moved along the southeastern coasts of the other main islands of Japan. In the course of 11 July 2014, NEOGURI weakened to a tropical depression. Meanwhile it had passed the southeastern part of the island of Honshu near Tokyo and was located off the coast over the sea. Fig. 1: Satellite image of super-typhoon NEOGURI across the Ryukyu Islands, acquired on 8 July 2014, 05 UTC. [Source: NASA, Earth Observatory] 1 Fig. 2: Map of Japan. [Source: weltkarte.com] The damage caused by NEOGURI in Japan due to strong winds with squalls, high seas and heavy precipitation led to floods and landslides. There were power outages, bus and train connections were interrupted, and flights were cancelled. Despite previous warnings and evacuations several people lost their lives. 2 Fig. 3: Track of super-typhoon NEOGURI in the area Japan. Updated: 10 July 2014, 12 UTC. The observed track is marked by the black line, the forecast by the pink line. [Source: JTWC] Wind, precipitation and air pressure The following data of wind, precipitation and air pressure are only examples to demonstrate the impacts of typhoon NEOGURI. Ryukyu Islands An overview of the hourly precipitation totals on the Ryukyu Islands is given by the analysis chart valid for 8 July 2014, 22:30 UTC (Fig. 4). It shows a band of precipitation with high in- tensities (red). 3 Fig. 4: Precipitation analysis for the area of Japan on 8 July 2014, 22:30 UTC (9 July 2014, 7:30 JST). Japan Standard Time (JST) = UTC + 9 hours [Source: JMA] The development of precipitation, wind and air pressure on the Ryukyu Islands is illustrated by data from the weather station of Naha in Figure 5. During the crossing of super-typhoon NEOGURI, a total of 359 mm of rain fell within the 24-hour period from 8 July 2014, 00 UTC, to 9 July 2014, 00 UTC. This is more than twice the monthly average of 171 mm. On the 8th between 20 and 21 UTC, the rainfall was very intense as 76.5 mm fell within one hour. At that time, the centre of NEOGURI had already passed Naha (Fig. 5, bottom). The highest wind speeds at Naha occurred when the air pressure reached its minimum of 980 hPa (Fig. 5, middle and bottom). The sustained 10-minute wind speed was temporarily more than 100 km/h. 4 Fig. 5: Observations at Naha on the Ryukyu Islands from 7 to 9 July 2014. Time data in UTC. [Data source: JMA] Top: hourly precipitation (in mm). Middle: sustained 10-minute wind (in km/h). Bottom: air pressure (in hPa). 5 Islands of Kyushu and Shikoku The following precipitation totals were recorded during the 24 hours from 9 July 2014, 00 UTC, to 10 July 2014, 00 UTC: Nagasaki (Kyushu) 70 mm Kagoshima (Kyushu) 150.5 mm Miyazaki (Kyushu) 52 mm Kochi (Shikoku) 56 mm Already early in July, torrential rains had occurred on the Japanese island of Kyushu causing floods and landslides, e.g. at Nagasaki. At Nagasaki, 172 mm of rain was observed during the 48 hours to 4 July, 00 UTC. This is approximately half of the monthly average for July (334 mm). Until 7 July, 00 UTC, i.e. before the arrival of NEOGURI, an additional 123 mm fell, due to a front across Japan’s southern main islands. As soils were already saturated, the precipitation triggered by NEOGURI (see above) aggravated the situation. Wave heights Super-typhoon NEOGURI triggered waves of a height of more than 10 m in the neighbouring seas. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported significant wave heights of up to 12 metres on 7 and 8 July. The analysis chart of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Figure 6a shows the distribution of the significant wave heights. The significant wave height is defined as the mean height of the highest third of all waves in an observational period, i.e. single waves were higher than the significant wave height. Fig. 6a: Significant wave heights (in metres) in the seas around Japan on 08 July 2014, 12 UTC. The high waves were trig- gered by super-typhoon NEOGURI, the centre of which is located in the area of the maximum wave height. [Source: JMA] 6 Even after the weakening of NEOGURI waves of more than 5 m height occurred along the Japanese coasts (Fig. 6b). Fig. 6b: Significant wave heights (in metres) in the seas around Japan on 10 July 2014, 00 UTC. The high waves were trig- gered by super-typhoon NEOGURI, which had been downgraded to a tropical storm at that time. [Source: JMA] Typhoons in the region of Japan in July In the waters around Japan typhoons are no rarity in July. The Japanese main islands are hit by very strong ones every several years. The last such event occurred in July 2011, when typhoon MA ON headed toward southern Japan. Super-typhoon MAN YI in July 2007 had a track similar to that of NEOGURI. Sources and further information . Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): Data archive. www.dwd.de . Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html . Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC): http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ . NASA: Neoguri (Northwestern Pacific Ocean) http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/neoguri-northwestern-pacific-ocean/ . NASA, Earth Observatory: Side Profile of Typhoon Neoguri. (July 5, 2014) http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83993 . NASA, Earth Observatory: Typhoon Neoguri. (July 7, 2014) http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83980 . NASA, Earth Observatory: Typhoon Neoguri. (July 8, 2014) http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83995 . NASA, Earth Observatory: Typhoon Neoguri in Moonlight. (July 9, 2014) http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83998 7 . Unisys: 2014 Hurricane / Tropical Data for Western Pacific http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2014/index.php . Unisys: Tropical Advisory Archive. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/archive/ . Weltkarte.com: Landkarten von Japan. http://www.weltkarte.com/asien/japan.htm 8 .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR Sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ Updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET
    Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET Summary Report Ongoing typhoon situation The storm had lost strength early Tuesday July 8, going from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 3 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means devastating damage is expected to occur, with major damage to well‐built framed homes, snapped or uprooted trees and power outages. It is approaching Okinawa, Japan, and is moving northwest towards South Korea and the Philippines, bringing strong winds, flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge. Typhoon Neoguri is a once‐in‐a‐decade storm and Japanese authorities have extended their highest storm alert to Okinawa's main island. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2013 ranked Japan as first among countries in the world for both annual and maximum potential losses due to cyclones. It is calculated that Japan loses on average up to $45.9 Billion due to cyclonic winds every year and that it can lose a probable maximum loss of $547 Billion.2 What are the most devastating cyclones to hit Okinawa in recent memory? There have been 12 damaging cyclones to hit Okinawa since 1945. Sustaining winds of 81.6 knots (151 kph), Typhoon “Winnie” caused damages of $5.8 million in August 1997. Typhoon "Bart", which hit Okinawa in October 1999 caused damages of $5.7 million. It sustained winds of 126 knots (233 kph). The most damaging cyclone to hit Japan was Super Typhoon Nida (reaching a peak intensity of 260 kph), which struck Japan in 2004 killing 287 affecting 329,556 people injuring 1,483, and causing damages amounting to $15 Billion.
    [Show full text]
  • Chapter 7. Building a Safe and Comfortable Society
    Section 1 Realizing a Universal Society Building a Safe and Comfortable Chapter 7 Society Section 1 Realizing a Universal Society 1 Realizing Accessibility through a Universal Design Concept The “Act on Promotion of Smooth Transportation, etc. of Elderly Persons, Disabled Persons, etc.” embodies the universal design concept of “freedom and convenience for anywhere and anyone”, making it mandatory to comply with “Accessibility Standards” when newly establishing various facilities (passenger facilities, various vehicles, roads, off- street parking facilities, city parks, buildings, etc.), mandatory best effort for existing facilities as well as defining a development target for the end of FY2020 under the “Basic Policy on Accessibility” to promote accessibility. Also, in accordance with the local accessibility plan created by municipalities, focused and integrated promotion of accessibility is carried out in priority development district; to increase “caring for accessibility”, by deepening the national public’s understanding and seek cooperation for the promotion of accessibility, “accessibility workshops” are hosted in which you learn to assist as well as virtually experience being elderly, disabled, etc.; these efforts serve to accelerate II accessibility measures (sustained development in stages). Chapter 7 (1) Accessibility of Public Transportation In accordance with the “Act on Figure II-7-1-1 Current Accessibility of Public Transportation Promotion of Smooth Transportation, etc. (as of March 31, 2014) of Elderly Persons, Disabled
    [Show full text]
  • Report on UN ESCAP / WMO Typhoon Committee Members Disaster Management System
    Report on UN ESCAP / WMO Typhoon Committee Members Disaster Management System UNITED NATIONS Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific January 2009 Disaster Management ˆ ` 2009.1.29 4:39 PM ˘ ` 1 ¿ ‚fiˆ •´ lp125 1200DPI 133LPI Report on UN ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members Disaster Management System By National Institute for Disaster Prevention (NIDP) January 2009, 154 pages Author : Dr. Waonho Yi Dr. Tae Sung Cheong Mr. Kyeonghyeok Jin Ms. Genevieve C. Miller Disaster Management ˆ ` 2009.1.29 4:39 PM ˘ ` 2 ¿ ‚fiˆ •´ lp125 1200DPI 133LPI WMO/TD-No. 1476 World Meteorological Organization, 2009 ISBN 978-89-90564-89-4 93530 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspon- dence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box No. 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: publications@wmo.int NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
    [Show full text]
  • 3Rd Quarter 2014
    Climate Impacts and Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region Outlook 3rd Quarter 2014 nd Significant Events and Impacts for 2 Quarter 2014 The region is still under an El Niño Watch. Periods of heavy rain fell in Hawaii, raising streams and Above normal rainfall flooding lowlands. fell over much of Guam, Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. Guam was affected by three tropical storms and Sea-levels continued to record rains in July. fall across Guam, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands – supportive of the ongoing transition to El Niño state. Heavy rains fell in late July in American Samoa. Shading indicates each Island’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). nd Regional Climate Overview for 2 Quarter 2014 Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly Map, valid July July 2014 precipitation anomaly. Source: Sea-Surface Height Anomaly, valid Aug 1, 30, 2014 . Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/ 2014. Source: http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ The region remains under an El Niño Watch and weather conditions were more in-line with El Niño during the quarter (e.g., increasing sea-surface th temperatures, falling sea level, and wet conditions across Micronesia). However, as of August 4 , the Niño 3.4 region anomaly was -0.1°C, which corresponds to ENSO neutral conditions. Sea-surface temperatures were generally near normal, with the warmest anomalies exceeding 1°C near CNMI. The monthly mean sea level in the 2nd quarter continued to show falling levels in most of the USAPI stations; however, Guam, Pago Pago, and Honolulu remain slightly above normal.
    [Show full text]
  • Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports Using the Ensemble
    Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm Tien Duc Du(1), Thanh Ngo-Duc(2), and Chanh Kieu(3)* (1)National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 8 Phao Dai Lang, Hanoi, Vietnam 1 (2)Department of Space and Aeronautics, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam 2 (3)Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington IN 47405, USA Revised: 18 April 2017 Submitted to Pure and Applied Geophysical Science Abbreviated title: Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Keywords: Tropical cyclones, ensemble Kalman filter, the WRF model, tropical cyclone vital, ensemble forecasting ____________________ *Corresponding author: Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Program, GY428A Geological Building, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405. Tel: 812-856-5704. Email: ckieu@indiana.edu. 1 1 Abstract 2 This study presents an approach to assimilate tropical cyclone (TC) real-time reports and the 3 University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) 4 Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) data into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model 5 for TC forecast applications. Unlike current methods in which TC real-time reports are used to either 6 generate a bogus vortex or spin-up a model initial vortex, the proposed approach ingests the TC real- 7 time reports through blending a dynamically consistent synthetic vortex structure with the CIMSS- 8 AMV data. The blended dataset is then assimilated into the WRF initial condition, using the local 9 ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) algorithm. Retrospective experiments for a number of 10 TC cases in the north Western Pacific basin during 2013-2014 demonstrate that this approach could 11 effectively increase both the TC circulation and enhance the large-scale environment that the TCs are 12 embedded in.
    [Show full text]
  • Member Report
    MEMBER REPORT ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 9th Integrated Workshop REPUBLIC OF KOREA 20-24 October 2014 ESCAP – UN Conference Center, Bangkok, Thailand CONTENTS I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area since the last Typhoon Committee Session (as of 10 October) II. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas (1) Begin to provide the seasonal typhoon activity outlook for TC members (2) 7th Korea-China Joint Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (3) Capacity building of typhoon analysis and forecasting through the typhoon research fellowship program (4) Implementation of Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS) to Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Lao PDR (5) Recent advance of estimation of the radius of 15 m/s wind speed of Tropical Cyclones using COMS and Microwaves imagery in KMA/NMSC (6) Typhoon Monitoring by Drifting Buoys around the Korean Peninsula (7) Structural and Nonstructural Measurements to Extreme Floods (8) Flood Control Measures Assessment System Manual (9) Extreme Flood Control Guidelines (10) Developing the smart phone application for flood information dissemination (11) 3rd WGH meeting and TC WGH web-page (12) Empirical experiment for Typhoon and heavy rainfall response (13) Value Improvement Project-8 (VIP-8) (14) 2014 Northern Mindanao Project in Philippines by NDMI and PAGASA (15) Upgrade of the function in Typhoon Committee Disaster Information System (16) The 9th WGDRR Annual Workshop (17) Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) Between NDMI and PAGASA (18) 2014 Expert Mission in Guam (USA) (19) Host of 8th WMO IWTC including 3rd IWTCLP I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area in 2014 (as of 10 October) 1.
    [Show full text]
  • 2008 Tropical Cyclone Review Summarises Last Year’S Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Impact of the More Significant Cyclones After Landfall
    2008 Tropical Cyclone 09 Review TWO THOUSAND NINE Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN 2 Verification of 2008 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts 3 Tropical Cyclones Making US Landfall in 2008 4 Significant North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in 2008 5 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009 15 NORTHWEST PACIFIC 17 Verification of 2008 Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts 19 Significant Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones in 2008 20 Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009 24 NORTHEAST PACIFIC 25 Significant Northeast Pacific Tropical Cyclones in 2008 26 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN 28 Significant North Indian Tropical Cyclones in 2008 28 AUSTRALIAN BASIN 30 Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009/2010 31 Glossary of terms 32 FOR FURTHER DETAILS, PLEASE CONTACT CAT.i@GUYCARP.COM, OR GO TO OUR CAT CENTRAL WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.GUYCARP.COM/PORTAL/EXTRANET/INSIGHTS/CATCENTRAL.HTML Tropical Cyclone Report 2008 Guy Carpenter ■ 1 Executive Summary The 2008 Tropical Cyclone Review summarises last year’s global tropical cyclone activity and the impact of the more significant cyclones after landfall. Tropical 1 cyclone activity is reviewed by oceanic basin, covering those that developed in the North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific, North Indian Ocean and Australia. This report includes estimates of the economic and insured losses sus- tained from each cyclone (where possible). Predictions of tropical cyclone activity for the 2009 season are given per oceanic basin when permitted by available data. In the North Atlantic, 16 tropical storms formed during the 2008 season, compared to the 1950 to 2007 average of 9.7,1 an increase of 65 percent.
    [Show full text]
  • Impact of Storm Size on Prediction of Storm Track and Intensity Using the 2016 Operational GFDL Hurricane Model
    AUGUST 2017 B E N D E R E T A L . 1491 Impact of Storm Size on Prediction of Storm Track and Intensity Using the 2016 Operational GFDL Hurricane Model MORRIS A. BENDER Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey TIMOTHY P. MARCHOK NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, New Jersey CHARLES R. SAMPSON Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California JOHN A. KNAFF NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado MATTHEW J. MORIN Engility Holdings, Inc., Chantilly, Virginia (Manuscript received 20 December 2016, in final form 12 May 2017) ABSTRACT The impact of storm size on the forecast of tropical cyclone storm track and intensity is investigated using the 2016 version of the operational GFDL hurricane model. Evaluation was made for 1529 forecasts in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western North Pacific basins, during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The track and 2 intensity errors were computed from forecasts in which the 34-kt (where 1 kt 5 0.514 m s 1) wind radii ob- tained from the operational TC vitals that are used to initialize TCs in the GFDL model were replaced with wind radii estimates derived using an equally weighted average of six objective estimates. It was found that modifying the radius of 34-kt winds had a significant positive impact on the intensity forecasts in the 1–2 day lead times. For example, at 48 h, the intensity error was reduced 10%, 5%, and 4% in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western North Pacific, respectively. The largest improvements in intensity forecasts were for those tropical cyclones undergoing rapid intensification, with a maximum error reduction in the 1–2 day forecast lead time of 14% and 17% in the eastern and western North Pacific, respectively.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Cyclones 2019
    << LINGLING TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2019 SEP (), !"#$%&'( ) KROSA AUG @QY HAGIBIS *+ FRANCISCO OCT FAXAI AUG SEP DANAS JUL ? MITAG LEKIMA OCT => AUG TAPAH SEP NARI JUL BUALOI SEPAT OCT JUN SEPAT(1903) JUN HALONG NOV Z[ NEOGURI OCT ab ,- de BAILU FENGSHEN FUNG-WONG AUG NOV NOV PEIPAH SEP Hong Kong => TAPAH (1917) SEP NARI(190 6 ) MUN JUL JUL Z[ NEOGURI (1920) FRANCISCO (1908) :; OCT AUG WIPHA KAJIK() 1914 LEKIMA() 1909 AUG SEP AUG WUTIP *+ MUN(1904) WIPHA(1907) FEB FAXAI(1915) JUL JUL DANAS(190 5 ) de SEP :; JUL KROSA (1910) FUNG-WONG (1927) ./ KAJIKI AUG @QY @c NOV PODUL SEP HAGIBIS() 1919 << ,- AUG > KALMAEGI OCT PHANFONE NOV LINGLING() 1913 BAILU()19 11 \]^ ./ ab SEP AUG DEC FENGSHEN (1925) MATMO PODUL() 191 2 PEIPAH (1916) OCT _` AUG NOV ? SEP HALONG (1923) NAKRI (1924) @c MITAG(1918) NOV NOV _` KALMAEGI (1926) SEP NAKRI KAMMURI NOV NOV DEC \]^ MATMO (1922) OCT BUALOI (1921) KAMMURI (1928) OCT NOV > PHANFONE (1929) DEC WUTIP( 1902) FEB 二零一 九 年 熱帶氣旋 TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2019 2 二零二零年七月出版 Published July 2020 香港天文台編製 香港九龍彌敦道134A Prepared by: Hong Kong Observatory 134A Nathan Road Kowloon, Hong Kong © 版權所有。未經香港天文台台長同意，不得翻印本刊物任何部分內容。 © Copyright reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the permission of the Director of the Hong Kong Observatory. 本刊物的編製和發表，目的是促進資 This publication is prepared and disseminated in the interest of promoting 料交流。香港特別行政區政府(包括其 the exchange of information. The 僱員及代理人)對於本刊物所載資料 Government of the Hong Kong Special 的準確性、完整性或效用，概不作出 Administrative Region
    [Show full text]
  • Typhoon Track Prediction Using Satellite Images in a Generative Adversarial Network Mario R ¨Uttgers1, Sangseung Lee1, and Donghyun You1,*
    Typhoon track prediction using satellite images in a Generative Adversarial Network Mario R ¨uttgers1, Sangseung Lee1, and Donghyun You1,* 1Pohang University of Science and Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Pohang, 37673, South-Korea *dhyou@postech.ac.kr ABSTRACT Tracks of typhoons are predicted using satellite images as input for a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). The satellite images have time gaps of 6 hours and are marked with a red square at the location of the typhoon center. The GAN uses images from the past to generate an image one time step ahead. The generated image shows the future location of the typhoon center, as well as the future cloud structures. The errors between predicted and real typhoon centers are measured quantitatively in kilometers. 42:4% of all typhoon center predictions have absolute errors of less than 80 km, 32:1% lie within a range of 80 - 120 km and the remaining 25:5% have accuracies above 120 km. The relative error sets the above mentioned absolute error in relation to the distance that has been traveled by a typhoon over the past 6 hours. High relative errors are found in three types of situations, when a typhoon moves on the open sea far away from land, when a typhoon changes its course suddenly and when a typhoon is about to hit the mainland. The cloud structure prediction is evaluated qualitatively. It is shown that the GAN is able to predict trends in cloud motion. In order to improve both, the typhoon center and cloud motion prediction, the present study suggests to add information about the sea surface temperature, surface pressure and velocity fields to the input data.
    [Show full text]
  • Natural Catastrophes and Man-Made Disasters in 2014 Caused Insured Losses of Just Losses in Australia
    N o 2 / 2 0 15 Natural catastrophes and 1 Executive summary 2 Catastrophes in 2014: man-made disasters in 2014: global overview convective and winter storms 7 Regional overview 14 Severe convective generate most losses storms: a growing global risk 21 Tables for reporting year 2014 43 Terms and selection criteria Executive summary There were a record 189 natural In 2014, there were 336 disaster events. Of these, 189 were natural catastrophes, catastrophe events in 2014. the highest ever recorded, and 147 were man-made disasters. More than 12 700 people lost their lives or went missing in the disasters. Globally, total losses from all disaster The total economic losses generated by natural catastrophes and man-made events were USD 110 billion in 2014, disasters in 2014 were around USD 110 billion, down from USD 138 billion in 2013 with most in Asia. and well below the inflation-adjusted average of USD 200 billion for the previous 10 years. Asia was hardest hit, with cyclones in the Pacific creating the most losses. Weather events in North America and Europe caused most of the remaining losses. Insured losses were USD 35 billion, Insured losses were USD 35 billion, down from USD 44 billion in 2013 and well driven largely by severe thunderstorms in below the inflation-adjusted previous 10-year average of USD 64 billion. As in recent the US and Europe, and harsh winter years, the decline was largely due to a benign hurricane season in the US. Of the conditions in the US and Japan. insured losses, USD 28 billion were attributed to natural catastrophes and USD 7 billion to man-made events.
    [Show full text]
  • Prediction of a Typhoon Track Using a Generative Adversarial Network And
    www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Prediction of a typhoon track using a generative adversarial network and satellite images Received: 25 September 2018 Mario Rüttgers , Sangseung Lee , Soohwan Jeon & Donghyun You Accepted: 29 March 2019 Tracks of typhoons are predicted using a generative adversarial network (GAN) with satellite images Published: xx xx xxxx as inputs. Time series of satellite images of typhoons which occurred in the Korea Peninsula in the past are used to train the neural network. The trained GAN is employed to produce a 6-hour-advance track of a typhoon for which the GAN was not trained. The predicted track image of a typhoon favorably identifes the future location of the typhoon center as well as the deformed cloud structures. Errors between predicted and real typhoon centers are measured quantitatively in kilometers. An averaged error of 95.6 km is achieved for tested 10 typhoons. Predicting sudden changes of the track in westward or northward directions is identifed as a challenging task, while the prediction is signifcantly improved, when velocity felds are employed along with satellite images. Every year tropical cyclones cause death and damage in many places around the world. Cyclones are formed when water at the sea surface becomes warm, evaporates, and rises in a form of clouds, and while it cools down, the con- densation releases strong energy in a form of winds. Rotation of the earth gives a cyclone its spinning motion. At the center usually a hole forms, which is called an eye of the cyclone. At the eye, the pressure is low and energetic clouds and winds get attracted.
    [Show full text]