Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction Using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database
OCTOBER 2021 X I E E T A L . 1629 Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction Using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database a,b,c a,b,c a a a,b,c a,b,c YANSHUANG XIE, SHAOPING SHANG, JINQUAN CHEN, FENG ZHANG, ZHIGAN HE, GUOMEI WEI, a,b,c d d JINGYU WU, BENLU ZHU, AND YINDONG ZENG a College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China b Research and Development Center for Ocean Observation Technologies, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China c Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology, Ministry of Education, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China d Fujian Marine Forecasts, Fuzhou, China (Manuscript received 6 December 2020, in final form 10 June 2021) ABSTRACT: Accurate storm surge forecasts provided rapidly could support timely decision-making with consideration of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting error. This study developed a fast storm surge ensemble prediction method based on TC track probability forecasting and searching optimization of a numerical scenario database (SONSD). In a case study of the Fujian Province coast (China), a storm surge scenario database was established using numerical simulations generated by 93 150 hypothetical TCs. In a GIS-based visualization system, a single surge forecast representing 2562 distinct typhoon tracks and the occurrence probability of overflow of seawalls along the coast could be achieved in 1–2 min. Application to the cases of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) and Typhoon Maria (2018) demonstrated that the proposed method is feasible and effective. Storm surge calculated by SONSD had excellent agreement with numerical model results (i.e., mean MAE and RMSE: 7.1 and 10.7 cm, respectively, correlation coefficient: .0.9).
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