Commercial Aviation Soars Into Its Second Century

14 TR NEWS 295 NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2014 Soars into Its Second CenturyCommercial Aviation pictorialairline histories. ofthe Skyliners series of Virginia,and is the author Consulting,Fairfax, HamlinTransportation Hamlinis President, HistoryCommittee. membersof the TRB Naples,Florida. Both are President,AvAirPros, Committee. N Casto I is L M A H andForecasting E G R O TRBAviation E Economics G D N anemeritus A member of the , O T S Annapolis,Maryland, A and C G E Fischer R is a consultant G in , R E H C S I F N H O J AerialViews of aRapidly Developing History—and Outlook O industry.According to the Federal Aviation Admin- sioned today’s highly developed international airline tomorrow while heralds today, the unbelievable” of ( accomplishment an is yesterday of the Airboat line, declared, “What was impossible bled to watch the first flight, Percival Fansler, creatorSpeaking before the crowd of 6,000 who had assem- afterward.time some for round-tripsdailyseveral line service in the United States. minuteflight. Thiswasthestart commercialof air- 23- thepassengerfirst theon$9,000today—to be passenger, who paid $400—equivalent to more than The St. Petersburg–TampaofferedSt. LineTheAirboat The onlookers probably could not have envi- have not could probably onlookers The Florida, carrying pilot Tony Jannus and one airplane took off on a 21-mile trip to Tampa, n January 1, 1914, a two-seatBenoistXIV a 1914, January1, n 1 ).

into ahighlydeveloped internationalindustry. grown fromitsbeginningsinFlorida acenturyago International Airport.Commercial aviationhas (Photo, topofpage:)AnAirFranceAirbusatMiami January 1,1914. a successfulflightofhistwo-seater seaplane, Pilot Tony Jannus lands inTampa, Florida,after

M F , F A S : P EMORY LORIDA LORIDA OF RCHIVES TATE HOTO

A I M : P IRPORT NTERNATIONAL IAMI HOTO I istration (FAA), U.S. airlines carried 739.3 million MAGE : J : passengers in 2013 for 834.1 billion revenue pas- AMES V

senger miles (RPMs)—that is, one paying passenger AUGHAN traveling 1 mile—and more than 1 trillion available seat miles (ASMs)—that is, one seat traveling 1 mile (2, p. 42). If the FAA’s forecasts are accurate, these numbers will increase to 1.15 billion passengers, 1.47 trillion RPMs, and 1.75 trillion ASMs by 2034.

Dramatic Growth From its first days, the airline industry grew by fits and starts through the 1920s as aircraft technology improved and the necessary infrastructure of air- ports, air traffic control, and the rules of the air were created, often without coordination. Airline service grew dramatically in the next decade, with the intro- duction in 1933 of new aircraft such as the Boeing 247 (see photograph, below). The arrival of the Doug las DC-3 slightly later in the decade, however, proved a watershed moment—the DC-3 was the first Superhighways of the Sky In the 1950s, the first- aircraft widely viewed as capable of producing a Flying between almost any two major cities in the class lounge of a Boeing profit for its operators solely by carrying passengers. world in one day is now possible. This would have 707 was a fashionable way for the “jet set” to Airline industry growth took a break during World been unimaginable from the perspective of January travel. War II but benefited from the technologies introduced 1, 1914. As Microsoft founder Bill Gates observed in during the war, as well as from the number of aircraft a 1999 Time magazine article, “The Wright Brothers produced and the infrastructure created to support created one of the greatest cultural forces since the the military. Growth accelerated once again. development of writing, for their invention effec- The introduction of jet aircraft, notably the Boe- tively became the first World Wide Web of that era, I P NFORMATION ing 707, into commercial service in the 1950s began bringing people, languages, ideas, and values HOTOS to shrink the world in a new way. In the preceding together. It also ushered in an age of globalization, as A : RTHUR , F , half-century, improvements in new aircraft of many the world’s flight paths became the superhighways of ARM S. S S. S IEGEL types, improved infrastructure, dramatic technolog- an emerging international economy. Those super- ECURITY ical advances, and new business practices resulting highways of the sky not only revolutionized inter- O , FC OF FFICE A in part from economic deregulation made air travel national business, they also opened up isolated DMINISTRATION cheaper and more available worldwide. countries, carried the cause of democracy around W AR

P the world, and broke down every kind of political OOCUTS OF COURTESY HOTO barrier. And they set travelers on a path that would eventually lead beyond the earth’s atmosphere” (3).

G Commercial aviation derived EORGE Eyewitness Observations benefits from the war efforts in

H A more entertaining and perhaps more enlightening AMLIN the 1940s. (Above and below:) approach to the past 100 years is to move from a Michigan Air National Guard chronological history to insights directly from indus- Boeing 247 next to a Boeing 767. operations at the airport in

P try leaders and observers: Wayne County, Michigan—now HOTO Detroit Metropolitan Wayne : W :

IKIMEDIA u“You cannot get one nickel for commercial fly- County Airport; parts of the ing,” claimed Inglis M. Uppercu, founder of Aero- original runway remain as C

OMMONS taxiways. marine West Indies Airways, the first American airline to last more than a few months, in 1923. uA June 1929 issue of Airports Magazine pub- lished excerpts from a paper on the Architectural Treatment of the Modern Airport, presented by archi- The Douglas DC-3—the first airplane capable of tect Francis Keally at the First Annual Airport Con- producing a profit as a commercial aircraft— vention. “Aviation is the great transportation method prepares for takeoff in 1940. of the future. We must look at it that way…to avoid 16 TR NEWS 295 NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2014 PHOTO: LIBRARY OF CONGRESS PRINTS AND PHOTOGRAPHS DIVISION to theJetAge.” articles asthe“Gateway contemporary news Dulles wasdescribedin construction in1962. Airport under Dulles International The controltowerof development of writing.” cultural forces since the “one of the greatest olina, in 1903, launching Kitty Hawk, North Car- the world’s first flight in by his brother Orville at side the airplane piloted Wilbur Wright runs along- Administrator Elwood (Pete) Quesada in an August Aviation Federal observed aviation,” commercial of history the through making been we’ve errors than the airports the country provides.” comedown….in safety. Aviation can grow no faster to able bealways must sky thetakes that ship the amplify,readilyavailable….Butmake extend,to to transportation has proved itself. All that remains is tinentaltoair-rail linesregularonrun schedule.…Air to spanned. The air mail Lanes is an accepted fact…transcon- been crossed…continents have Sky been have Oceans the Opens Commerce,” stated: “The pioneering That has been done. port….Key Air- “The headline, the with Corporation, ports develop around it.” become so important that an entire community will “Itmay well be that the activities of the airport will mistakes in the planning of airports,” Keally advised. u u

“Not looking far enough ahead is one of the of one is aheadenough far looking “Not advertisement1930A Curtiss-Wrightby Air-

D P P C L , L K. W : P IVISION HOTOGRAPHS AND RINTS ONGRESS OF IBRARY EFFLER ARREN HOTO costs with wings.” marginal just are they me, “To Civil Aeronautics Board, the in 1977. of Chairman Kahn, Alfred other,”admitted the from plane one fell swoop, we have shrunken Lindbergh’ssincement flight.In most important aviation develop- Juan Trippe enthused, “This is the American World Pan Airways aircraft, founder jet the of duction way to the Jet Age.” “Gate- the as describedAirport, 1960, 15, United Airlines, in 1976. of CEO Ferris, Richard engine,” opined jet the since airlines the to happen to thing greatest the earth.” u u u Commenting on the intro- “Deregulation will be the be “Deregulationwill “I really don’t know one don’tknowreally “I Time article on Dulles onarticle ways. Air- VirginAtlantic ofpresident Branson,Richard Sir said entertainment,”in-flight to meaning new whole a bring will zero-gravityfunpassenger and below planetbeautiful our of awe-inspiringviews environmentalminimalwithhours,The impact. 2 willablebeflytofrom London Sydneyto underin successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.” been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a the farsightedof days thecapitalist since everelusive provenhad has tage “Thinkairlines. continued: durable Herecompetitivea advan- He 2008. in shareholders Hathaway Berkshire to letter annual his in Buffett, Warren money,”no wroteor little earns then andgrowth, rapidly,requires significantengenderthecapital to TRB will have a part in it. Whateverthenext100years may bringaviation, in Airportthe Cooperative Research Program2005. in work has expanded substantially with the creation of closely tracking airline industry issues. TRB’s mitteesaviationpursuing rangearesearch of subjects, many a vibrant component of TRB, with nine standingpart ofcom- the expanded mission. Aviation wayhas Researchgrown intoBoard in 1974, aviation research became into its maps software renders all airlines obsolete.” implemented technology there’ me ‘put“Google’s responses: future( the insights ontheir tennial asked several prominent industry leaders for A Future Visions References 4. Mayerowitz, S. The Future of Aviation: Airline Leaders’Aviation:Airline of Future The S. Mayerowitz, 4. Aviators:The Wright Brothers: 3. PairA ofSelf-Taught Engi- 2. in Rates Growth Historic Maintains Demand Passenger 1. USA TodayUSA When TRB was formed out of its predecessor High- airline-ceos-predictions/4267643/. day.com/story/travel/flights/2014/01/01/future-of-aviation- Predictions. time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,990611,00.html. Forever Smaller Place.” neersWorking Bicycleain Shop, TheyMade the World a FAA_Aerospace_Forecasts_FY2014-2034.pdf, p.42. ation_forecasts/aerospace_forecasts/2014-2034/media/ www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/avi-AviationAdministration, Washington, D.C., March 2014. AerospaceFAAYearsForecast:2014–2034Fiscal 2014-02-06-01.aspx. tion, February 6, 2014. www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/ Transportrelease,InternationalPressAir2013. Associa- u u u “I have no doubt that during my lifetimewe myduring thatdoubt no have “I “Theworstsortbusinessof thatone growsis Ben Baldanza, CEO of Spirit Airlines, observed: USA Today, article on commercialaviation’sonarticle cen- Time January 1, 2014. http://www. usato- , March 9, 1999. http://content. 4 ). Followingtwoare). . Federal .