Thoughts on the Postpandemic New Normal in Air Travel

Thoughts on the postpandemic new normal in air travel

Received (in revised form): 31st August, 2020

JIM ROBINSON Managing Director, Pegasus Aviation Advisors, France

Jim Robinson, Managing Director, Pegasus Aviation Advisors, a boutique strategic advisory group, has over 25 years of experience in the planning and development of aviation infrastructure projects. Although trained as an architect, the majority of his experience has been in international airport development encompassing strategic planning, airport master planning, capital programme development and investment risk analysis. In addition, he leads NexTerm, an innovation research think tank focused on the use of advanced technology to improve airport efficiency and passenger experience. Jim has practical experience working at senior management level serving as Head of Strategic Planning at Dubai International Airport as well as Head of Planning at Abu Dhabi International Airport. In addition, he has a broad background in providing subject matter expertise and advisory services to airport operators, investors and technology companies on projects in Europe, Middle East, Asia and the United States.

Narbonne, France Tel: +33 789 41 14 59; E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract The coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic will compel permanent transformation of the travel industry and its aviation sector. Key disruptors emerging from the pandemic will include:

• Behavioural changes of the traveling public • Increased fear of contracting the virus during travel • Continued uncertainty as to when an effective vaccine will be available, if ever • Severe global economic downturn • Revised procedures to be introduced at airports and onboard aircraft that increase the inconvenience of air travel

While the immediate effects of the pandemic may be temporary, interaction with more strategic factors, such as globalisation and the digital economy, could result in disruption of the air travel sector. Issues addressed in this paper include:

• Aviation-industry recovery and changes to the business model • Need for regulatory change • Inherent uncertainty in forecasting • Impact on airport operations and development

This paper explores the impact of these factors and how they could permanently transform the air travel industry, and how the trends of global digitalisation present a unique opportunity to reinvent the entire aviation sector business model as well as the end-to-end travel experience To achieve this will require meaningful collaboration of the digital technology and air transport sectors to drive innovation and transformational change in response to this challenge for society.

Keywords digital, transformation, passenger, experience, trusted, platform

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INTRODUCTION and telecommuting that may result in a While we are in the midst of a global major shift in business travel behaviour. pandemic, which is having a catastrophic Employers have already concluded that impact on the aviation sector, it is worth working from home brings them bene- reflecting on the potential outcomes fits as they need less offices and can staff and effects the coronavirus disease-2019 outside major urban centres, translating (COVID-19) crisis may have on air travel into lower overheads. Finally, influ- in the longer term. Historically, air travel ences such as climate change and the has been vulnerable to external factors, so-called Greta-effect are expected to such as oil crises, natural disasters, armed affect the overall recovery of air travel conflict, global terrorism and economic in general. downturns, but the sector was able to Although there are many recent fore- eventually recover to precrisis activity cast predictions on how the recovery may and growth levels. Notably, the 2019 unfold, the challenge to both airlines and International Air Transport Association’s airports is how to make any effective (IATA) pre-COVID forecasts predicted decisions with the current uncertainty. a doubling of air traffic by 2030. The As Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai key questions are whether this crisis will Airports recently stated, force fundamental changes to the air Social distancing in the longer term is not travel sector and what the recovery will going to be sustainable from an economic or look like. a social perspective. We really need a break- This is a global health crisis that has through in a vaccine or treatment or a very rapidly driven global economies into clever digital platform that will allow us to recession, forced border closures and instantly track. It is inexcusable that we were lockdowns, and significantly increased not better prepared. In the long-term we will unemployment. Contact tracing, social have a digital biometric passport that we distancing, mask wearing and hand wash- carry around with us in the cloud that we can ing are common responses to minimise demonstrate at all points in the journey that contagion. In addition, health officials we are medically fit to travel without being a 1 are concerned about the possibility of hazard to anyone else. second and third waves of the pandemic resulting in further quarantines and lockdowns. As air travel requires human THE PREVACCINE ERA beings to sit or queue for long periods, in At the time of writing (August 2020), close quarters, there is going to be a nat- we are in the early stages of emerging ural fear of close unprotected contact that from the initial pandemic wave. To date, could limit any recovery until an effec- there have been 25 million cases reported tive treatment or vaccine for the disease globally with almost 850,000 deaths.2 is widely available. Although there is a massive effort by In addition, the pandemic is result- governments and the pharmaceutical ing in behavioural changes that could industry to create a vaccine, the process is have long-term effects on all forms rigorous, time consuming and not guar- of human interaction. First, forced anteed to be successful in the foreseeable lockdowns have resulted in a grand future. experiment in ‘work from home’ and Until there is a vaccine available and widespread use of videoconferencing effectively distributed on a global basis,

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we will remain in this pre-New Normal IMPACT ON AIRLINE INDUSTRY IN environment. There are a number of fac- THE NEAR TERM? tors that will inhibit recovery due to the The impact on the airline industry near pandemic including: term is unpredictable because the airlines are unable to operate in a ‘steady state’ ●● Travel health risk and uncertainty as to until borders across the globe fully open. when a vaccine will be widely available This makes it difficult to forecast oper- ●● Travel restrictions in different parts of ations and develop an effective network the world strategy. The result is that a significant ●● Fear of travel attitude linked to high amount of the global airline fleet is cur- death toll from COVID-19 rently inactive, which is unsustainable. ●● Deep global recession Network megacarriers relying mostly on long-haul flights, channelled through The air transport industry is in a dire major hubs, face the biggest challenge situation. Initially there has been some and an uncertain future. Fewer long- government economic assistance, aimed haul trips, with travellers shunning at reducing the impact of a global reces- crowded transfer areas, will trigger a sion and job losses, and in the case of significant downsizing of airlines and airlines, to help them survive the imme- wide-body airplane orders, with major diate crisis. European airlines have airport projects being put on hold and sought over €32bn in government relief re-evaluated. Short-haul flights, already since the beginning of the COVID- under attack pre-coronavirus from the 19 crisis in the form of loan and credit flight-shaming movement, could see guarantees. In the United States, the the shift of travellers towards lower airlines received $25bn in grants and carbon-emitting transport means like loans. But these are temporary measures high-speed trains. that cannot be sustainable. IATA esti- While widespread border restrictions mates that airlines globally will lose at remain, low-cost carriers (LCCs) lack- least US$314bn due to the outbreak. We ing large domestic markets will be forced have already seen some of the weaker to rethink their business model. Their airlines go into bankruptcy and there strategy of squeezing as many passengers will likely be more, further increasing as possible on aircraft to generate high overall uncertainty on how the world load factors may become unsustainable. may look in the New Normal. In addition, hygiene requirements to Guillaume Faury, chief executive disinfect aircraft on each turnaround officer of Airbus, stated that the pan- will impact the fundamentals of the demic is the ‘gravest crisis the aerospace LCC business model where quick turn- industry has ever known’. In Europe, around times (30 minutes or less) are for example, there were 80 per cent required. Given many negatives for air fewer flights reported as of June 2020, travel — such as environmental, well- compared to same period in 2019.3 being and passenger experience factors Although travel restrictions are being — certain categories of traveller will lifted in many parts of Europe, there likely become more discerning in their remain conflicting travel require- travel choices. ments and quarantine policies between The question will be whether the countries. travel experience will be more difficult

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and time-consuming, and therefore deter for airport operators, airplane opera- people from flying. Will the airline fare tors and national aviation authorities, be so high as to reduce demand or will as well as other relevant stakeholders as customers be flight shamed and stay at to how to facilitate the safe and grad- home more? Will flying be a special ual restoration of passenger transport. occasion treat or a compelling busi- Although these guidelines are useful, it ness requirement rather than something should be noted that their implementa- people do without a second thought? tion is discretionary. These all remain unanswered questions These European Union Aviation contributing to the uncertainty of what Safety Agency measures will be reg- the recovery will look like. ularly evaluated and updated in line with changes in knowledge of the risk of transmission as well as with develop- OUTDATED REGULATORY ment of other diagnostic or preventive ENVIRONMENT measures (including technological) and The air transport sector works within the evolution of the pandemic.5 Longer- a regulatory system, set up in 1946, term global solutions involving health largely on mercantile rules, that resulted and vaccine certification will likely be in the Chicago Convention. The pri- required to instil greater confidence that mary thrusts of the Chicago Convention it is safe to fly. are global regulation and coordination, by The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), of standards and FORECASTING OR CRYSTAL BALL? recommended practices on aviation The COVID-19 pandemic is unprec- safety and security including pandemics. edented when compared to prior crises Although ICAO and the World Health that significantly affected air travel, Organization (WHO) issued warnings, such as the 2008/9 Financial Crisis, the the initial global response to COVID-19 severe acute respiratory syndrome and by governments failed to adopt appropri- 9/11. These crises generally resulted in a ate measures to minimise the spread of V- or U-shaped recovery that was rela- the disease. There has not been a univer- tively fast and allowed the aviation sector sal response, and each government acts in to recover to precrisis activity levels. its own self-interest. Unfortunately, we are currently in a This raises the issue of the regulatory deep crisis and downturn whose dura- system’s effectiveness and suggests an tion is unpredictable. There are hopeful urgent need to rebuild its confidence signs of recovery as travel restrictions are and authority. Certainly, this crisis will being lifted in certain domestic markets serve as a wake-up call for a new reg- and travel ‘bubbles’ being created. At the ulatory order that is responsive to the same time there are, however, signals of aviation sector as well as the public in second waves and emerging ‘hot spots’ general. Central to this will be estab- as well as countries, such as the United lishing protocols for safe travel during States and Brazil, who have not been able a pandemic. For example, ICAO4 to reduce infection rates. and other regulatory authorities have Certainly, there will be an inflec- recently issued guidelines on health tion point where either a vaccine is safety protocols to provide guidance developed and effectively distributed

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or the human population manages risk EMERGING FROM THE DEEP CRISIS to instil sufficient confidence to travel. As the world progresses towards a New This inflection point will be the defin- Normal, airlines will plan recovery ing moment of the New Normal. For from a strategic perspective, with clearly example, IATA has recently published defined scenarios. They are likely to an outlook for the next five years pre- develop options with a clear set of trig- dicting that global revenue passenger gers addressing demand change relative kilometers (RPKs) may recover to 2019 to health concerns and other trends, levels in 2023, two years later than the such as work from home. Will they projected level of 2019 gross domestic change their business model and move product recovery in 2021. More impor- away from targeting business traffic? tantly, the return to the growth starting Will lower-cost and more flexible LCCs point post COVID will be at a lower and new entrants expand into mar- level with global RPKs forecast to be kets vacated by higher-cost less-flexible 32–41 per cent below expected (pre- legacy carriers? What does it mean for COVID) levels in 2021.6 fleet, network, operations, the cost base IATA also projects that the average and crisis resiliency in the long-term? trip length will fall sharply, with short- These are the types of critical questions haul domestic markets opening first. In needed to establish an airline business addition, international RPKs will trail plan for the New Normal. domestic such that international activ- Airports are operating in crisis mode ity may not recover to 2019 levels until and will likely to continue to do so until 2023–2024 at the earliest. air travel starts to recover and they begin Although many industry experts have to move to a New Normal. The current hopeful predictions of recovery in a two focus is on: to three-year time frame, these are simply

optimistic views that people will feel suf- ●● Preserving revenue and reducing costs ficiently safe to fly and that airlines and ●● Implementing responsive operational airports will have sufficient resources to adjustments survive and meet the recovered demand. ●● Alleviating slot-usage requirements Critical to understanding and manag- ●● Attracting and deploying emergency ing the recovery, the use of short-term, funding, where granted scenario-based planning, analysing key ●● Waiving concession fee payments to recovery inputs and assumptions, such governments, where applicable as short-term trends, regional caseloads, ●● Deferring major capital programmes surveyed passenger willingness to travel, border openings and economic activ- One component of air travel demand ity, will be important. These will need that will likely be permanently impacted to be integrated with business models will be business travel. One of the and facility requirements. For indus- most radical transformations in soci- try stakeholders, including airlines, this etal attitude in the ‘work from home’ not only means bracing for challenging experiment will be reduced business times and managing uncertainty, but is travel due to virtual meeting practices, also an opportunity to restructure and supported by new corporate travel pol- come out of the crisis stronger than their icies implemented to curb expenses. competitors. Although human-to-human contact

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has been the basis of business since the As traffic ramps up, the critical dawn of man, it is inevitable that virtual question for airports becomes how to meetings will replace many face-to- maintain social distancing as traffic gets face meetings for people who do not closer to pre-COVID-19 levels. For air- live in the same city. The recovery in port operators, the primary challenge leisure travel will largely be dependent will be to balance operating expenses on the extent of the economic down- against uncertainty of revenues and turn and attitudes towards discretionary demand. Implementation of hygiene travel. But even when the requirements and safety measures, such as clean- of social distancing and mask wearing ing, temporary dividers, distribution subside due to a vaccine, this crisis will of masks, will likely continue until we likely have a deep psychological effect as reach a New Normal. Ultimately, there the traveling public will expect greater should be a move towards wider use of hygienic measures in place in aircraft, mobile technology enabling automation, airports, hotels and ground access. hands-free solution for the passenger Paradoxically, the COVID-19 crisis processing touchpoints and virtual queu- and lockdown have certainly created ing to alleviate crowding. one benefit, a reduction in fossil fuel From a longer-term perspective, air- emissions and cleaner air. No doubt this port management will be deferring will be used by environmental lobbies and optimising large-scale capital pro- to further build the case to take action grammes and revisiting their master on carbon emissions. In response, IATA plans. For example, Changi recently is already calling on ICAO to use 2019 announced a two-year delay in their emission levels as a reference to deter- Terminal 5 programme to review its scale mine the emission baseline in the Carbon and design considering the COVID-19 Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for pandemic. A recent Straits Times International Aviation (CORSIA). In editorial stated: addition, aviation de-growth initiatives such as flight shaming can be expected Given the way in which the Covid-19 out- to increase. It is safe to say that a focus break has changed the rules of the aviation game for the immediate future, it is essen- on the aviation contribution to climate tial to ensure that what was a necessity in change has been raised in human con- pre-Covid times does not end up becoming a sciousness and will impact air travel liability now.7 growth in the future. As we emerge from the deep crisis, Key considerations in revisiting an air- while recovering demand levels will port master plan will begin with a review regenerate airport and airline business of the forecast assumptions. Due to the models in general, there are practical unprecedented nature of this crisis, an capacity and operational considerations alternative scenario-based approach as airlines begin to ramp up activity. As would allow testing of the inherent airlines prioritise desirable routes and flexibility of the master plan recom- timings, this will likely increase pres- mendations. As opposed to forecasts, sure on peak periods initially while scenarios-based analysis is an indica- off-peak traffic will remain dormant tion of possible paths or outcomes. resulting in inefficient use of terminal Key analytical considerations should infrastructure. include:

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●● Geographical disparity of international/ this connectivity is highly complex and domestic passenger traffic mix central to our lives and economies. ●● Business and leisure traffic mix The operating models and busi- ●● Difference in market size among regions ness cultures that have evolved from ●● Potential difference in resilience and this adversarial relationship between speed of recovery airlines and airports are misaligned ●● Outbreak timing that impacts when multilateral institutions that present traffic would bottom out significant challenges towards effective ●● Gap between what is scheduled and and collaborative transformation. This actual operations model is not aligned with the global- ised world in which we live, and this With a scenario-based approach, plan- failure of global governance has greatly ning of terminal facility requirements aggravated the risk. The COVID-19 would be reassessed in anticipation of crisis should be a call to arms for both permanent requirements dealing with the airport and airline communities to hygiene and solutions to avoid crowding. start meaningful collaborative initia- Airports will need to analyse and model tives with the digital technology sector their passenger-facilitation processes to learn from other industries and from terminal entry to aircraft boarding accelerate innovation. and from deplaning to terminal exit in anticipation of future pandemics. LEVERAGING THE DIGITAL AGE We are in the early stages of the digital OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGE age that has already upended commercial The COVID-19 crisis has shown that retail and the taxi and hotel industries the airport sector is not sufficiently (ie Amazon, Uber and AirBnB). Like resilient to major shocks, with sizeable all industries in the global digital econ- fixed costs, limited operational flex- omy, the aviation sector will need to ibility, vulnerable passenger markets be an active participant and proactively and certain carriers being placed in a engage and embrace this change. Tra- precarious financial position. The avi- ditional aviation technology providers ation sector can be characterised as an still operate and offer legacy technol- adversarial stakeholder community, ogy solutions out of self-interest. Such which is disaggregated with nonaligned traditional platforms inhibit innovation business models, lacking global econo- and lack the economic power to drive mies of scale and are risk averse, highly real change in the industry. The avi- regulated and with cumbersome pro- ation sector now has an opportunity curement processes. to move away from these legacy pro- There are no key aviation sector lead- viders as it will be companies outside ers with significant market share, who of the industry that drive this digital are organising things, setting standards transformation. and are invested in innovation to oper- For example, the COVID-19 crisis ate and build efficiently. At the same has exposed the fundamental flaws of time, what the COVID-19 pandemic the entire inventory distribution and slot has exposed is that we are more inter- capacity-allocation model used by the connected than ever before, and that airline industry. Slot-allocation rules are

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based on an airport-by-airport system offers wellbeing and encourages growth using archaic seasonal-distribution and resilience. models that result in overcapacity and an unsustainable business model in the long-term. On the demand side, tradi- REALISING THE VISION FOR AN tional airline ticket sales channels have END-TO-END TRAVEL EXPERIENCE been under attack from online travel Now is the time to reinvigorate efforts agencies, such as Kayak, Expedia and towards a true, end-to-end, seamless Priceline, and there is every reason to travel experience on a multiairport believe that this trend will continue. basis. Digital technology solutions Passengers want a good price for an already present the opportunity for uncomplicated transaction and do not consistent, touchless passenger terminal want to be artificially managed for the processes that can mitigate travel fears. convenience of the airline and its com- Unfortunately, the air transport sector plicated logistics or yield-management is highly fragmented and currently lacks programme. the capability to offer an integrated, The new model will entail a combi- multiairport global digital solution nation of dynamic pricing and dynamic sophisticated enough to manage the pas- scheduling so that airlines supply senger from end to end. The necessary capacity and connections as required terminal interfaces, such as check-in, to minimise wasted flight hours. For bag drop, security, passenger boarding example, traditional flight schedule and baggage collection as well as the network-planning models and airport transport mode selections to and from capacity slot-allocation processes could airports, could conceivably be fully inte- be challenged by a new demand-driven grated and optimised. This will require bidding model for major city connections collaboration between technology pro- in which aircraft are deployed or con- viders, government agencies and the air nections planned to respond directly to transport industry, with data sharing to booking demand rather than deploying provide real-time digital solutions. capacity and trying to fill it. Certainly, This integration can be achieved by rationalising capacity would have an looking at the travel process holistically added benefit of reducing the amount of and from a traveller’s perspective. The carbon emissions overall while strength- industry needs to set aside the 20th cen- ening the viability of the airline business tury passenger terminal model with its models. inherent limitations and consider facili- Moreover, the important underlying ties development from a customer-centric trend driving success for major technol- perspective to reinvent the processes ogy companies is their ability to manage using available technological tools. and manipulate data to create prod- Fundamentally, the traveller is seeking ucts and services at a hyperpersonalised a smooth, seamless and predictable tran- level on a global scale. It is now time to sition from their home or office to an embrace and leverage this capability and airplane and from that airplane to their develop effective solutions in air travel destination. This includes: that can mitigate perceptions that travel is unsafe from a health perspective and offer ●● Predictable and reliable transportation a truly seamless end-to-end solution that to the airport

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●● A quick and uncomplicated handover (USCBP) biometric entry and exit ini- of baggage tiative that has been deployed at many ●● A smooth, safe and predictable process US airports and US preclearance facili- through the airport to their airplane ties globally. This is a facial-recognition ●● Confidence that their baggage will solution that permits seamless travel reach the destination through the immigration process by ●● Pleasant and interesting entertainment, leveraging mobile technology. USCBP’s food and beverage and retail options at programme is a biometric identification the airport before the flight service known as the Traveller Verifi- ●● ‘Fastrack’ options for passengers who cation Service, which has the potential prefer to minimise their time at the airport of creating a standard for identity verifi- ●● Reasonable alternatives for getting bag- cation between government and private gage on arrival at the airport or final sectors with far-reaching implications, destination if adopted globally. In short, your face ●● Quick and convenient access to ground becomes your passport. transportation when leaving the airport Unfortunately, these efforts have been ●● Personalised and digital end-of-journey on an airport-by-airport basis to date, solutions to the final destination, be it reinforcing the fragmentation of the home, office, hotel and beyond. travel experience and not offering the end-to-end travel solution that travellers Certainly, there is already a drive seek. towards the seamless travel experience, but the offerings remain disjointed, with little integration of the various products THE DIGITAL PASSENGER offered. One can book flights, hotels or A bigger view of the digital passenger rental cars online, but there is no inter- is needed to achieve a truly end-to-end connectivity between these activities on seamless travel experience, available the day of travel and no linkage to the using the fundamental currency of the airport experience. digitised world, data. The Big Data eco- Individually, there are smart airport system involves trusted cloud-based solutions being deployed at airports digital platforms that potentially allow across the globe. An example is issuing for collaboration towards shared goals. facial-recognition tokens promoted by To work, data must be available and IATA (their ONE ID initiative) whose shared across all stakeholders. The abil- vision is ity to access, mine and analyse this data from the multiple sources will redefine to create a streamlined, friction-free process the airport operational and business pro- that allows an individual to assert their iden- cesses as well as create opportunities to tity, online or in person, to the required level, delight the passenger. while maintaining privacy of personal data The digital economy has the ability and enabling significant improvements to operational efficiency and security. The vision to redefine the relationship between the will be delivered through true collaboration passenger and multiple aviation stake- between airlines, airport and governments.8 holders, resolving the spurious contest between airlines and airports as to who Another notable initiative is the United ‘owns’ the passenger. In this digital age, States Customs and Border Protection it is the passenger who can take control.

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Air travel will be dictated by their destination. End-to-end travel solutions demands and expectations. For example, based on digital passenger-innovation use while airports have constructed termi- cases hold the promise to overcome the nal spaces as warehouses with forced fragmented travel ecosystem and create shopping experiences while depriving a truly integrated experience driven by passengers of flight information, the real-time data with the traveller in total traveling public has turned to person- control. To achieve this will require a ally available data through apps, such as new way of thinking about the traveller Google and Flight Aware. In response to and their data. the COVID-19 crisis, Google Travel is A guiding principle needs to be estab- already offering up-to-date travel infor- lished that the passenger owns their mation amid the changing travel own data. Airline inventory and ticket restrictions, including advisory alerts purchases are based on Passenger Name and related airline and hotel offerings. Record (PNR), the fundamental building Most passengers do not yet realise the block of passenger data used for com- extent to which their travel experience mercial purposes as well as to meet legal could be revolutionised in the same way obligations for travel between member that consumers could not anticipate the states for fighting serious crime and ter- degree to which smartphone technology rorist activity. The PNR is a record in would transform their lives. the computer reservation system (CRS) Airports have the advantage of having database that contains the individual a captive audience. Employing digital passenger or group itinerary. The PNR solutions and Big Data analytics could concept was first introduced in the 1970s, drive innovative retail business strat- by airlines to exchange reservation infor- egies; concession programmes could mation for passengers on multiairline include more entertainment and amuse- journeys. It is the airline that currently ment diversions, personal services and manages the passenger travel data. The experiential stores rather than the tra- airport does not have real-time access to ditional shopping mall model currently this data or real-time connectivity to the implemented. passenger, and is forced to rely on passive tracking systems and historical data for the management of passenger facilitation REIMAGINING THE PASSENGER through the terminal building. EXPERIENCE With some exceptions, the PNR is The traveller’s emotional journey is managed by Global Distribution System inexorably linked to the physical or providers who have become an oligar- process journey and that consideration chy and see the PNR as a major unique is an important basis of the reimagined selling point and profit centre. There airport. As such, we need to apply the is no general industry standard for the fundamental principles of customer layout and content of a PNR except that experience to re-engineer the passenger it should include common elements. In terminal processes themselves. From a practice, each CRS or hosting system traveller’s perspective, the airport expe- has its own proprietary standards. This rience is only one step in a continuum is based on legacy business models as involving multiple interfaces and touch- airlines have become highly protective points in the journey from origin to of the PNR data. In reality, these data

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are, however, the property of the travel- travel experience ‘Use Cases’ to be devel- ler and protected under European Global oped. Imagine being able to book any Data Protection Regulation (EU GDPR) element of a journey, however complex, law.9 based on personalised travel preferences This entire system needs to be turned and, then, on the day of travel have a on its head, placing the passenger in fully integrated real-time, but touch- total control of their own data through a less experience where you would have Universal Passenger Experience Record complete visibility, guidance and pre- (UPXR), which creates a personalised dictability on each mode of travel and data wallet. The passenger can opt-in to terminal touchpoint via a single App. an application solution that safely shares Pre-existing technology solutions using data on a trusted cloud-based global machine learning and artificial intelli- platform. Such trusted data platforms gence (AI), such as those used by Google already exist in the banking sector and Maps, Waze etc can adjust to changes e-commerce industry, showing that and/or delays. Unfortunately for the personal data, itineraries and travel pref- traveller, these travel steps are currently erences could be placed in a secure and fragmented, lack user friendliness and are open standard platform with the passen- not linked to the individual. The solu- ger in total control of their data. Those tion is to create a personalised identity who say it is impossible are desperately wallet on the mobile devices to store a trying to protect their own indefensible multitude of biometrics and passenger positions. True optimisation of the end- information on a single platform that can to-end travel experience can only be then be ‘shared’ at different points in the achieved through real-time connectivity journey. to the passenger. Creating a real-time digital passenger platform also leverages mobile MY FACE IS MY PASSPORT technology solutions that already exist Currently in international travel, the worldwide. This would certainly address passenger is repeatedly asked to show ‘Who Owns the Passenger’ and EU their passport and/or boarding pass. GDPR and other privacy concerns while This step is repeated from origin, to providing a fully integrated solution for connecting airport to destination, as if seamless end-to-end travel from origin each enquirer has no idea of their iden- to destination. It would also allow all tity. With consolidated data sources, this significant stakeholders, such as airlines, is not necessary. The airline captured airports, security, health and border con- your passport and identity informa- trol agencies access to the same database tion when the ticket was purchased, facilitating Total Airport Collaborative and application programming interface Decision Making capabilities to improve processes are in place verifying that the overall efficiencies. passenger is not a criminal or terrorist. None of the travel information and biometric data are, however, shared among BRINGING AN IDENTITY PLATFORM onward travel immigration and cus- TO LIFE toms authorities, necessitating the need An opt-in global trusted data platform to construct infrastructure touchpoints would allow for an endless amount of and queuing space to constantly and

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repetitively check each passenger. In a real breakthroughs and adoption on world where authorities are committed a global scale, namely the nonunifor- to limit the spread of infectious diseases, mity of the solutions. Other industries these multiple document check touch- have learned that fiercely competitive points are a public health risk to both companies collaborate in the estab- the passenger and the agent. lishment of common platforms, data A global trusted platform using dig- standards and governance over innova- ital identity facial recognition would tive solutions. encourage enough efficiencies to largely The aviation sector needs to develop a make the current IATA Airport Design similar open source platform to acceler- Reference Manual guidelines obsolete. ate passenger experience innovation that For example, today we are required to can be applied globally. The customised segregate international and domestic airport/airline solutions will ultimately passengers (or Schengen/non-Schengen become untenable, and a global solu- in Europe). This results in duplication of tion will ultimately be demanded by the dedicated terminal facilities that is inef- consumer. The open-source model is a ficient, drives up capex, reduces revenue proven technique used in many other opportunities and is costly to maintain. industries that still allows for intellec- With a digital identity platform solu- tual property protection but at the same tion, the need to segregate would be time creates a cost-effective environment obviated. for innovative technology companies A digital identity platform would to operate and deploy global solutions. allow the space between boarding gate There must be a balanced solution driv- and aircraft become the immigration/ ing towards practical innovation, while customs border. This would allow shar- at the same time allowing for competi- ing of gates more efficiently and for tion to prosper. passengers to mix, increasing revenue A customer-centric solution in the opportunities. This approach offers a digital age will mandate that the passen- completely touchless biometric interface, ger has on-demand real-time information which is also more hygienic, addressing of their flight status, gate information, ongoing public concerns. queuing times, walking distances at origin and baggage status, at their origin, destination and connecting airports. WE NEED SOLUTIONS ON A GLOBAL This real-time information gives the pas- SCALE senger better control over how to spend The aviation industry should be their time before the flight and at their striving towards solutions that are connection airport. A relaxed passenger scalable. The current mindset in air- can spend more time in the concession port innovation is of ‘invented here areas. A rising tide lifts all boats. first’, reinforcing the one-off solutions, with no critical mass to make Big Data technology investment cost CONCLUSION effective or profitable. Airlines and air- The COVID-19 pandemic is a grim ports work independently, guardedly reminder of stakeholder inter protecting their data and innovation. dependence in the aviation sector. It This creates the main challenge to has exposed the systemic risk of

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globalisation, which is not the collapse Finally, a trusted cloud-based global of individual systems, but society’s platform where the passenger controls inability to manage growing com- their data will generate real-efficiency plexities. The risk cannot be removed gains in the optimisation of exist- because it is an inherent part of globali- ing infrastructure and deferring major sation and must, therefore, be mitigated. infrastructure capital expenditure. As Winston Churchill once said, ‘never The industry will eventually reach let a good crisis go to waste’. the New Normal, but the aviation sector As we emerge towards the New will need to change fundamentally in Normal, the aviation sector has an oppor- order to prosper. As postulated by the tunity to reinvent itself and manage the Master Architect, Louis Sullivan, ‘form global systemic risks by optimising ever follows function’,10 the COVID-19 around the digital passenger. An open crisis has exposed that the current model source trusted data platform will enable is not fit for its intended purpose and such innovation. requires redesign. A global partner- The air travel sector represents an ship is needed between technology and untapped e-commerce and advertis- aviation-sector leaders to boldly trans- ing market in the digital economy. In form and encourage innovation in the air 2019, there were nine billion air trips transport marketplace. globally, a level that we can expect to recapture eventually as we emerge out References of this crisis into the New Normal. (1) ‘Interview with Paul Griffiths’, CEO Dubai Technology companies such as Google, Airports, Dubai One, 14th May 2020, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft have the available at: https://www.facebook.com/ capacity to create a trusted global digital dubaionetv/videos/2648288978781946/ (accessed 15th October, 2020). platform and have already targeted the (2) Johns Hopkins University and Medicine; travel sector as a new frontier. They see Coronavirus Resource Center; 31st August, an opportunity to disrupt a traditionally 2020. siloed and fragmented air travel market. (3) ‘COVID19 impact on European air traffic EUROCONTROL comprehensive Data will be the basis of competitive assessment’, 10th June, 2020, available advantage. at: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html This paper suggests two radical ideas (accessed 15th October, 2020). (4) ICAO (2020)‘Guidance for air travel through that could allow for transformational the COVID-19 public health crisis’, issued change of the entire travel sector, namely: 27th May, available at: https://www.icao. int/covid/cart/Pages/CART-Take-off.aspx 1. The rationalisation of airline inventory (accessed 15th October, 2020). (5) EASA (2020) ‘COVID-19 aviation health through dynamic pricing and safety protocol’, issued 21st May, available scheduling at: https://www.easa.europa.eu/document- 2. Transformation of the entire end-to- library/general-publications/covid-19- end travel experience based on the aviation-health-safety-protocol (accessed 15th October, 2020). digital traveller (6) Pearce, B. (2020) ‘COVID-19 outlook for air travel in the Next 5 years’, Chief Economist The sharing of digital data, between the IATA, 13th May, available at: https://www. main stakeholders, on a trusted platform iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/ economic-reports/covid-19-outlook-for-air- could remove many of the fault lines and travel-in-the-next-5-years/ (accessed 15th reinvigorate air travel. October, 2020).

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(7) Straits Times editorial (2020) ‘Prudent decision Magazine (March 1896). Whether it be the on Changi Terminal 5’, 20th June, available sweeping eagle in his flight, or the open at: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/ apple-blossom, the toiling work-horse, st-editorial/prudent-decision-on-changi- the blithe swan, the branching oak, the terminal-5 (accessed 15th October, 2020). winding stream at its base, the drifting (8) ‘IATA Simplifying the Business Think Tank clouds, over all the coursing sun, form White Paper’, 2016. available at: https://www. ever follows function, and this is the law. iata.org/contentassets/72cbd60393ff42b5975d Where function does not change, form 90ce9e049a7d/stb-whitepaper2015.pdf does not change. The granite rocks, the (accessed 15th October, 2020). ever-brooding hills, remain for ages; the (9) DIRECTIVE (EU) 2016/681 OF THE lightning lives, comes into shape, and dies, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF in a twinkling. It is the pervading law of all THE COUNCIL of 27th April, 2016, on the things organic and inorganic, of all things use of passenger name record (PNR) data for physical and metaphysical, of all things the prevention, detection, investigation and human and all things superhuman, of all prosecution of terrorist offences and serious true manifestations of the head, of the heart, crime. of the soul, that the life is recognisable in its (10) Sullivan, Louis H. The Tall Office Building expression, that form ever follows function. Artistically Considered; Lippincott’s This is the law.

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