The Fundamentals of EDA for the Financial Community 2013

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The Fundamentals of EDA for the Financial Community 2013 The Fundamentals of EDA For the Financial Community 2013 © 2014 Gary Smith EDA © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved EDA is an Outsourcing Business • Initially Electronic Design tools were developed by the Electronic OEMs – Most importantly, semiconductor vendors • What became known as the EDA Industry began in the mid-1960s when companies outsourced commercial “development” of In-House tools • Unlike all other software industries, semiconductor companies did not outsource design tool “research” – A limiting factor on EDA vendor profits © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 2 The Major EDA Cycles • The driving force of EDA is Moore’s Law – Every two semiconductor nodes, design tools need significant upgrades • Periodically, semiconductor vendors produce so many transistors (per IC) that it causes an Inflection Point as we move from one level of abstraction to the next © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 3 During Inflection Points - We Lose Market Leaders 1964 – 1971 1971 – 1987 Transistor Level Gate Level Methodology Methodology Applicon, Calma & Daisy, Mentor & Computer Vision Valid Main revenue source: Main revenue source: Semiconductor Layout PCB Design (IC CAD) 1987 - 2011 2011 – 2020? RTL ESL Methodology Methodology Cadence, Mentor & ?????? Synopsys Main revenue source: Main revenue source: Semiconductor Design Embedded Software (CAE & IC CAD) Development Tools © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 4 EDA’s Customers • Power Users – Engineers who push state-of-the-art • Upper Mainstream – Engineers who lag Power Users by 1-2 silicon nodes • Lower Mainstream – Engineers whose competitive advantage is not the IC (they usually use FPGAs) • Late Adopter – Engineers who do low-end (or specialty) designs using low-cost EDA tools (see Definitions under Research at www.garysmithEDA.com) © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 5 Moore’s Law - the Heartbeat of EDA Silicon Node EDA Growth In nm in $MM $7.5 Inflection $6.5 Point $5.5 $4.5 $3.5 $2.5 $1.5 Inflection Point $0.5 $0.0 Source: Gary Smith EDA December 2013 © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 6 16 nm 1.3 Billion Gates Millions of Gates Available Gates 3,500 3,281 3,000 2,731 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,322 1,000 353 658 500 228 35 69 138 177 - 180 nm 130 nm 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm 35 nm 22 nm 16 nm 11 nm 8nm Source: Gary Smith EDA / ITRS 2013 © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 7 SoC – the “S” stands for System ITRS Design Cost Chart 2013 (in Millions of Dollars) Super Computer Class Servers Class Computer Super RTL Functional Verif. Tool Suite Tool Verif. Functional RTL SMP Processing ParallelSMP bench Test Intelligent Prototype Virtual Silicon Reusable Platform BlocksPlatform Reusable Very large blockreuse large Very Many Core SW Dev toolsSW CoreMany Dev Automation System Design Executable Specification Executable IC Implementation Tool Set Tool IC Implementation AMP ProcessingAMP Parallel Software Virtual Prototype VirtualSoftware Transaction Level ModelingLevel Transaction $250 $200 $150 115 86 88 86 $100 64 39 66 59 60 28 57 48 $50 43 44 36 71 79 51 51 25 34 35 52 49 67 58 41 43 $0 21 14 19 26 16 21 28 38 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2028 2002 2012 2026 Total HW Engineering Costs + EDA Tool Costs Total SW Engineering Costs + ESDA Tool Costs Source: Gary Smith EDA December 2013 / ITRS 2013 © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 8 EDA is a Stable Industry • Negative - Lack of research control limits growth/profits • Positive - Move from node-to-node drives growth • EDA revenue is driven by Semiconductor “R&D” budgets • Seat Count growth is generally ~5% per year © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 9 EDA is a Stable Industry EDA Growth 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 -10% Source: Gary Smith EDA December 2013 © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 10 Major Markets $3,500$3,500 $3,310$3,310 $3,000 $3,000 $2,903 $2,903 CAE $2,500 $2,566 CAE $2,500 $2,612 $2,566 $2,612 $2,281 $2,301$2,301 $2,281 $2,000 $2,000 $2,035 $1,875 $2,035 IC CAD $1,758$1,758 $1,875 IC CAD $1,500$1,500 $1,555$1,555 $1,000$1,000 PCB $788 $676 PCB $500 $714$714 $788 $676 $500 $597$597 $632$632 $0$0 $ millions 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 11 Franchise Positions At the start of the RTL Inflection Point, the three major EDA vendors had the following Franchise Positions: 1. Cadence – Verilog, DRC, ASIC Layout & Custom Layout 2. Synopsys – Logic Synthesis 3. Mentor – (none) © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 12 The Loss/Gain of Franchise Positions Cadence Mentor Synopsys • Lost Verilog to an • Gained DRC • Held onto its RTL open standard in franchise in 2005 Franchise 1995 • Contending for • Did not move up • Lost DRC to ISS ESL market along that position into in 1994 which, in with Cadence ESL (High Level turn, lost it to Synthesis) Mentor in 1997 • Lost ASIC Layout to Avant! in 1997 • Contending for ESL market along with Mentor © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 13 © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 14 The Importance of Sub-Aps • At the start of 2013, there were 84 Sub-Applications • Sub-Applications are where competitive battles are fought © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 15 The WallCharts Download our WallCharts at www.garysmithEDA.com © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 16 The ESL Flow 2013 with Seat Count Numbers 17,435 129,346 Design Architect’s Design Workbench Silicon (SWVP 1) Software Prototyping Virtual Virtual System Prototype Prototype V (hardware) V (SWVP 2) (SVP 1) Validation e e r D r D Middleware i e i Apps Code Emulation e 262,074 f s f & s i 578,677 i i Acceleration i c g c Firmware (hardware) g a n a n 64,673 t t i i Silicon Software o Demo o Virtual Virtual n (hardware) n Design Prototype Prototype (SVP 2) (SWVP 3) Verification Total SWVP 3 = 326,747 Small number Could be same Engineers © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 17 Major ESL Sub-Applications Architect's Workbench $60.4 High Level Synthesis $10.8 Transaction-Based Acceleration & Emulation $305.0 Multicore Development Tools $51.9 Software Virtual Prototype $92.6 * ALL DOLLAR FIGURES IN MILLIONS © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 18 Architect's Workbench Intel - CoFluent 3% MathWorks 97% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 19 High Level Synthesis Synopsys 6% Bluespec 19% Forte Design (Cadence) Cadence 31% Design Systems 17% Calypto (Mentor) 27% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 20 Transaction-Based Acceleration & Emulation Aldec 0.2% Synopsys 19% Cadence Design Systems Mentor 47% Graphics 33% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 21 Multicore Development Tools Mentor Graphics ARM35% – 100% ARM 65% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 22 Software Virtual Prototype Imperas 8% Intel (Virtutech) 13% Mentor Graphics 1% Synopsys 78% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 23 Major RTL Sub-Applications Design Libraries $54.8 Interop Tools $95.2 Enterprise & CIS Tools $79.8 Analog Design $89.6 RF Design & Simulation $217.9 Analog Simulation $150.5 Power Design $56.3 Timing and Signal Integrity $95.0 Rapid Prototyping $58.0 ATPG $101.7 Synthesis $299.7 Formal Analysis $47.6 Formal Verification $100.3 Mixed Signal Sim $69.4 Mixed Language Sim $451.8 * ALL DOLLAR FIGURES IN MILLIONS © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 24 RF Design & Simulation Cadence National 6% Instruments 12% Ansys Agilent 14% EEsoft 68% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 25 RTL Synthesis Cadence Design Systems Mentor Graphics 11% 3% Oasys 2% Synopsys 84% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 26 Mixed Language Simulation Aldec 1% AXIOM Design Automation 2% Cadence Synopsys Design Systems 40% 30% Mentor Graphics 27% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 27 Major IC CAD Sub-Applications DFY $73.0 RET $217.8 T-CAD $104.1 Physical Libraries $94.9 IC SPICE $127.9 Signal-Integrity $70.9 Power $82.1 Extraction $116.9 DRC $225.0 Custom $237.3 ASIC Layout $633.2 * ALL DOLLAR FIGURES IN MILLIONS © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 28 ASIC Layout Atoptech 2% Cadence Design Systems 26% Synopsys 68% Mentor Graphics 4% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 29 Custom Layout Tanner Research 3% Silvaco Synopsys 3% 19% Cadence Sagantec Design Systems 8% 54% MicroMagic 1% Mentor Graphics 6% Jedat 6% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 30 Design Rule Checking (DRC) Tanner Research 1% Cadence Design Systems 17% Simucad Design Synopsys Automation 20% 1% Mentor Graphics 61% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 31 Resolution Enhancement Tools (RET) Cadence Design Systems 2% Synopsys Mentor 50% Graphics 48% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 32 Major PCB Sub-Applications * ALL DOLLAR FIGURES IN MILLIONS © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 33 Printed Circuit Board Tools Altium 5.3% Ansys 6.3% Others 13% Cadence Zuken Design 18.4% Systems 21% Mentor Graphics 36% © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 34 EDA Business Models © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 35 EDA Licensing Models 1963-86 1981-86 1987-2013 Transistor Level Gate Level (RTL) Register Transfer Methodology Methodology Methodology Bundled Bundled Unbundled Hardware/ Hardware/ (software only) Software Software Moved from (perpetual (perpetual perpetual to license license three-year (variable) for software) for software) license/ratable model © 2014 Gary Smith EDA All Rights Reserved 36 Impact of Customer-Driven EDA Research • New tools need to be in place at least a year before the lead node (EDA generation
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